A Place to Vent
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Kyanrute
kyan-rute
It's more about the timing imo. D2 we bus because we can't win on D3. If we are all alive D3 we should push for the green if possible because we can win on N3. D3+ checks when we are one down...not sure. Push for the 1-1 trade I guess by arguing that the only way to be sure is to kill them both. Meme cops who check themselves as the green will fuck things up, but I think that's just a fancy theoretical alternative that most people will choose to ignore as long as there are unknowns in play.
Verelios
Were-elios
We can single I guess...if we wanted to frame Zipped.
Verelios
Were-elios
Let me do the math actually.
Roster:
Blarg
Ty
Kyan <3
Hawthorn
Nin
Hedin <3
Vere <3
Leo
Turmoil
CURRENT:
Town: 6
Scum: 3
Hit 2 tonight, no vig hit:
Town: 4
Scum: 3
We win with a misvote but we can get hit too, we're catching heat.
Hit 2 tonight, vig hits town:
Town: 3
Scum: 3
We win
Hit 2 tonight, vig hits us
Town: 4
Scum: 2
Hit 1 tonight, frame Zipped
Town: 5
Scum: 3
Misvote and then win at night.
Roster:
Blarg
Ty
Kyan <3
Hawthorn
Nin
Hedin <3
Vere <3
Leo
Turmoil
CURRENT:
Town: 6
Scum: 3
Hit 2 tonight, no vig hit:
Town: 4
Scum: 3
We win with a misvote but we can get hit too, we're catching heat.
Hit 2 tonight, vig hits town:
Town: 3
Scum: 3
We win
Hit 2 tonight, vig hits us
Town: 4
Scum: 2
Hit 1 tonight, frame Zipped
Town: 5
Scum: 3
Misvote and then win at night.
I have no idea where to look for the kill(s) tonight. Almost want to keep turm or Ty around so they can claim. Thought about nin before but he's catching a little heat already. Going after Leo or Blarg might hurt Vere and if Hawthorn goes down it might be on Kyan.
Once again, damn you Blarg.
Once again, damn you Blarg.
Yeah, the cop is the one that can really screw us.
Verelios
Were-elios
Yeah, damned if we do, damned if we don't on shooting at the cop/medic targets. It will look MIGHTY suspicious if there are no hits in those groups.
Kyanrute
kyan-rute
Stack Leo. Leo + Blarg. Leo + vigi. Vigi + vigi. Don't think there is anything else. Wouldn't stack on a vigi or on Blarg.
We just need a single ejection. I think doc is dead, I can use that is my failsafe. Thus I'll leave the choice to you two: do you feel that you need the credibility from stacking? Karma or a better chance to get the cop.
We just need a single ejection. I think doc is dead, I can use that is my failsafe. Thus I'll leave the choice to you two: do you feel that you need the credibility from stacking? Karma or a better chance to get the cop.
Verelios
Were-elios
I'll vote to shoot Leo and Blarg, let me get the heat on this. On the off chance that there's a doc protecting one of them it'll be the same as stacking, and WIFOM says that hitting around me is suss.
The karma wouldn't hurt, I was first on Zipped do that might help my case. Vere was early in there so that helps in case the cop is checking the other cop claims.
Yeah but I don't know if Blarg is it either. Part of me wonders about Hawthorn with how insistent she was about not voting Zipped.
Yeah but I don't know if Blarg is it either. Part of me wonders about Hawthorn with how insistent she was about not voting Zipped.
I think the problem is that you would almost have to be the automatic target if we do that, I don't see how town would let you through the day. Maybe if the vig misses us we only need 1 vote to go to someone else but it will be hard to coordinate for a quick hammer (I do have some thoughts about how to do that maybe). How do you feel like your odds would be if its just you vs Blarg or you vs Leo?
Iso of Leo doesn't have any crumbs that I can pick up on. Had me in a scum list with Zipped and Blarg but that would be a very random group of 3 to have checked two of and didn't really follow anything on myself or Blarg.
Will look at Blarg in a bit. This may hurt my head.
Will look at Blarg in a bit. This may hurt my head.
Verelios
Were-elios
I think my chances in a me vs Blarg thunderdome would be about 60:40, with Hawthorn as a staunch naysayer. Me vs Leo would be rough, around 30:70 chance of victory but I could maybe work it into both of us being town.
I would have thought that you would feel better about going up against Leo than Blarg, feels like Blarg is pretty well town read.
Verelios
Were-elios
Nah, public opinion says that Blarg has all the reasons in the world to be scum. Leo though, at most two people are scum reading him and Zipped who probably would have flipped there just died.
Ok this is what I am currently thinking, obviously very subject to change based on both of your thoughts. I am approaching this as what would give us our best odds to get all of us through the day, if that happens we win. As of right now Vere and I have gotten a few side looks but haven't had really any pressure against us, Kyan seems mostly fine.
I would vote for a stack on nin.
First, as mentioned before the vig has to shoot tonight. If they hold it and we do a double kill tonight and eject town then even if they do hit one of us N4 it will still be 2v2. I wouldn't touch the vig tonight because if we stack we want them the be able to claim that they took a shot and thus where was only one mafia kill at night.
So why nin? First of all he's currently not in any group so it doesn't mess up any of the group balance. Yes it should be obvious that we're avoiding the doc and cop groups but good, that just makes the potential pool of suspects bigger. I'm actually surprised no one really mentioned Geno not being a part of the group as a possible reason for him getting killed. Also looking back aside from Blarg there wasn't much of a push against him today so I don't know how likely it would be if he was a prime candidate tomorrow if he was still alive. Could also do Sorian but at some point they have to wonder why they are still alive.
So why not one of the cop claims? If the cop is still out there (and please let it have been Stan) even with red parity check against one of us its a 50/50 chance that we get ejected. If we take out Blarg or Leo its probably a thunderdome with one of them and Vere and so its still a 50/50 chance. Add to the fact that if there was only one mafia kill they may not think its melo (we really need to figure out good replacement names for these) so they might be able to be convinced to go after one today and the other tomorrow, we just need our person in the tomorrow bucket.
I think one mafia kills combined with at worst a parity check for a 50/50 chance might cause enough confusion for us to get by. We don't even need to eject anyone technically, we just need to prevent a majority. Its very much a throw all your chips on the table but it might get us the best odds.
Downsides: If the vig shoots one of us and we stack we're in big doo doo. Not impossible but I wouldn't love our chances. Conversely if the doc is somehow still out there and blocks us we are still in trouble (I am assuming that a stack kill could still be blocked by the doc). And of course if we lose the 50/50 that will set us back as well.
I would vote for a stack on nin.
First, as mentioned before the vig has to shoot tonight. If they hold it and we do a double kill tonight and eject town then even if they do hit one of us N4 it will still be 2v2. I wouldn't touch the vig tonight because if we stack we want them the be able to claim that they took a shot and thus where was only one mafia kill at night.
So why nin? First of all he's currently not in any group so it doesn't mess up any of the group balance. Yes it should be obvious that we're avoiding the doc and cop groups but good, that just makes the potential pool of suspects bigger. I'm actually surprised no one really mentioned Geno not being a part of the group as a possible reason for him getting killed. Also looking back aside from Blarg there wasn't much of a push against him today so I don't know how likely it would be if he was a prime candidate tomorrow if he was still alive. Could also do Sorian but at some point they have to wonder why they are still alive.
So why not one of the cop claims? If the cop is still out there (and please let it have been Stan) even with red parity check against one of us its a 50/50 chance that we get ejected. If we take out Blarg or Leo its probably a thunderdome with one of them and Vere and so its still a 50/50 chance. Add to the fact that if there was only one mafia kill they may not think its melo (we really need to figure out good replacement names for these) so they might be able to be convinced to go after one today and the other tomorrow, we just need our person in the tomorrow bucket.
I think one mafia kills combined with at worst a parity check for a 50/50 chance might cause enough confusion for us to get by. We don't even need to eject anyone technically, we just need to prevent a majority. Its very much a throw all your chips on the table but it might get us the best odds.
Downsides: If the vig shoots one of us and we stack we're in big doo doo. Not impossible but I wouldn't love our chances. Conversely if the doc is somehow still out there and blocks us we are still in trouble (I am assuming that a stack kill could still be blocked by the doc). And of course if we lose the 50/50 that will set us back as well.
Kyanrute
kyan-rute
I read the day end.
Framing Zipped as scum makes Hedin and Leo credible townies. Vere gets a little less town karma, but I think you two together win this game if you don't get checked.
I don't look good, should not have even made that single post there. Framing Zipped also benefits me as it makes other people look bad and me better in comparison, since at worst my absence was rather odd instead of outright scummy.
Hawthorn will look extremely scummy, perhaps even overtly so, what's concerning. The stacked kill should make sense from a "this is a kill scum Hawthorn would make in order to make herself look better" POV. The final desperate Sorian push is odd, with it Hawthorn looks more reasonably scummy again. Can go either way I guess.
Blarg's reluctance to go for Zipped until the end will look scummy too and he will not have the defensive arguments Hawthorn will have. Blarg voted for Sorian with scum Zipped - ignore the Hawthorn ruse, Blarg is the real culprit. As a desperate move Blarg even breaks his own logic and entertains a cop train to see if Zipped could be saved. He goes back to nin using that one contradiction that nin made. Desperate to get anything done.
Ty is null. His vote comes late enough to be meaningless. It seals the deal, but the deal was already sealed when no credible alt-train formed in the moments before. Would be in our interest to any pushes against him against the pushers.
turm is hard to turn into the primary push, Blarg and Hawthorn are way too obvious concerns compared to him. He can work as the third member of the team, but I don't think many will go for him tomorrow.
Sorian is NAI. He will not be touched. Perhaps he is busy enough to stand by his Hawthorn read but I imagine everyone will adjust their reads with the Zipped red.
nin is whatever people want him to be. Unattractive compared to the more notable folks though.
Framing Zipped as scum makes Hedin and Leo credible townies. Vere gets a little less town karma, but I think you two together win this game if you don't get checked.
I don't look good, should not have even made that single post there. Framing Zipped also benefits me as it makes other people look bad and me better in comparison, since at worst my absence was rather odd instead of outright scummy.
Hawthorn will look extremely scummy, perhaps even overtly so, what's concerning. The stacked kill should make sense from a "this is a kill scum Hawthorn would make in order to make herself look better" POV. The final desperate Sorian push is odd, with it Hawthorn looks more reasonably scummy again. Can go either way I guess.
Blarg's reluctance to go for Zipped until the end will look scummy too and he will not have the defensive arguments Hawthorn will have. Blarg voted for Sorian with scum Zipped - ignore the Hawthorn ruse, Blarg is the real culprit. As a desperate move Blarg even breaks his own logic and entertains a cop train to see if Zipped could be saved. He goes back to nin using that one contradiction that nin made. Desperate to get anything done.
Ty is null. His vote comes late enough to be meaningless. It seals the deal, but the deal was already sealed when no credible alt-train formed in the moments before. Would be in our interest to any pushes against him against the pushers.
turm is hard to turn into the primary push, Blarg and Hawthorn are way too obvious concerns compared to him. He can work as the third member of the team, but I don't think many will go for him tomorrow.
Sorian is NAI. He will not be touched. Perhaps he is busy enough to stand by his Hawthorn read but I imagine everyone will adjust their reads with the Zipped red.
nin is whatever people want him to be. Unattractive compared to the more notable folks though.
Kyanrute
kyan-rute
Stacking on nin will make Blarg look better. Stacking on Sorian will make more people look better. Stacking on Ty WIFOMs the fuck out of Hawthorn. turm is the only alternative to nin-stack I see, if we are avoiding Leo.
Scum Blarg would WIFOM this. He'd just kill a vigi (turm?) and argue tomorrow that
Scum Hawthorn would...go for a defensive narrative or just a safe kill. Killing Ty to say that Hawthorn killed him so she could say "why would I flip my main town push to look myself worse?" is too complicated, people won't go for that. nin should work.
Scum Blarg would WIFOM this. He'd just kill a vigi (turm?) and argue tomorrow that
Code:
OF COURSE THE IMPOSTERS ARE TRYING TO FRAME ME, CAN'T YOU SEE IT? THEY ARE USING MY PLAN AGAINST ME!Scum Hawthorn would...go for a defensive narrative or just a safe kill. Killing Ty to say that Hawthorn killed him so she could say "why would I flip my main town push to look myself worse?" is too complicated, people won't go for that. nin should work.
Verelios
Were-elios
I think turms goes high for Sorian or Blarg as the vig.
Verelios
Were-elios
Kyan seem to want either Turms or Nin. I can see both. Turms being taken out is one less latent danger for Hedin (but also might shade you today) while Nin gives us much more to work with.
Verelios
Were-elios
If the vig doesn't shoot tonight then it's possible we killed them.
Faddy
of, having, or involving transitory whims
Received.
Yep, it wouldn't make any sense for them not to shoot so if they don't then we got them already.
Kyanrute
kyan-rute
The likelihood of being the actual cop. Towniness increases the chances that the person in question is the cop (and vice versa) and I think Leo is likelier to be town than Blarg. Blarg in addition entertained ejecting one from the cop group around the day end, what I considered both contradictory and reckless. Blarg especially should've seen this if he was the real cop, considering that I sprouted such nonsense against his ideas before seeing the light of his ideas.
The Vere consideration is the more problematic one. I don't want to say that I protected him to keep my distance from him. I could use his eager town read of me to say that I considered it a possible sign that he was the cop and say that I instead protected him and not Leo. Good question, I didn't think enough about the "why not Vere?" It'd just be that I considered Leo the likelier townie / kill target since there was no pressure on him and at least some on Vere.
Verelios
Were-elios
Yeah, I think your earlier exchange with Leo where you town read them will come in handy then.
If there are enough votes down to end it earlier, since we can't coordinate in here I was thinking at 60 min and 90 min into the emergency meeting if there is enough votes that we can end it we all make a post in the thread to show we are around. After the last person posts we then hammer.
Verelios
Were-elios
That's if we're not already on the person, lol. Town are dragging their feet on putting votes up on the board. It's frightening that we as scum are the ones pushing a very good chunk of the conversation and scum reads. Just to talk about town play, town needs a leader to step up and get people organized, consolidate votes, refute ridiculous posts, and I really don't think that's going to happen.
But we're not town so it's a good situation for us. If we see a situation that looks good we should all take action.
Kyanrute
kyan-rute
Endgame means that people will be stingy with their votes until the point they aren't. Then we have people like turm and Blarg who will toy with their votes. I am uncomfortable with hammering aggressively without a chat. Still, I'll try to spam F5 to see if opportunities rise.
Verelios
Were-elios
I do feel like one of us is going to get hit by the cop, just hope with the single kill we can create enough confusion.
Verelios
Were-elios
We gotta CC the cop HARD in that case. I already put down the tracks for Kyan D1 by putting him alone in my town circle so if they claim I'll say my targets were
N1: Kyan
N2: Hawthorn
N3: Sorian
Verelios
Were-elios
I know they're not cops, and while I can't say anything about their alignment, it was much more important to me that I finished going through the comparitively much lower Doc group.
Although you're right, I might change Sorian for Leo.
Make it:
Kyan
Hawthorn
Leo
Verelios
Were-elios
I didn't want to. I had my vanilla post ready literally a minute before Blarg posted, someone called me so I stepped away, and when I came back Blarg was trying to confirm THREE townies. Nah. Fuck that. It would be a lot riskier to go into the day with 3/6 of us the targets, and I heavily doubt Leo or Sorian would be their go to, leaving us to try and get turmoil out. I considered it for a minute and figured that it was a gamble that had the highest chance to succeed.
And ya'll came through for me with the assist, like damn. On the fly, you guys are the best.
Verelios
Were-elios
It would be the nice thing to do.
Faddy
of, having, or involving transitory whims
Kyanrute
kyan-rute
Let me be the cold minmaxer here. An alive vigi is the only way we lose now, that's the price we pay for stacking. I'm not getting shot. You two might get shot because this was hammered.
5-3 turns into 4-2. I am alive, whow, that's sus. Eject me, kill one, 3-1. If the final one is Vere, Hawthorn must live. If the final one is Hedin...should still keep Hawthorn as a scapegoat.
5-3 turns into 4-2. I am alive, whow, that's sus. Eject me, kill one, 3-1. If the final one is Vere, Hawthorn must live. If the final one is Hedin...should still keep Hawthorn as a scapegoat.
Verelios
Were-elios
They would. He would. It's a gamble at this point.
Verelios
Were-elios
I think we go Leo;Turms then.
Verelios
Were-elios
Wait, wouldn't it be 3-2? Or are you counting on us only shooting once today?
Kyanrute
kyan-rute
Ah. True. Blarg and Zipped were not scum but the game still goes on, so one of the three dead was scum. Hammer looks very suspicious so both of you die. If there was a double kill, why is the claimed doc still alive? That's a white flag there, we just lose if that happens.
Not necessarily. Faddy might be just teasing us. I for one never liked once everyone gets their actions in, that on its own spoils things.
Did I fuck that up? Lemme check.
Math off, same thing applies. If vig shoots Vere then we're looking at 1 v 2 in two days.
Verelios
Were-elios
Sorian won't eject Hawthorn if we hit a double tonight. In that case, she has to go because Blarg cleared her.
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