Scum Thread The Rise of Capitalism

I will probably start pushing Razmos come daylight because, yeah, the turbo naturally doesn't look good and he's not done much in the game, and FEP will finally have an ally in his argument there.
 
So, kill VA tonight, and maybe you track Stan or Aeleus?

With VA out of the way, town's about to lose one of their strongest leaders. TP would be next, I think, but his stubborn headedness doesn't seem to be swinging people towards me. We also have to remembertto get rid of LP at some point. He can swing games at the end by putting the puzzle together. If we can get through another phase or two, town will become really directionless I feel.

Yeah sounds ok. Agree on LP. I'll be thinking a bit more about the kill but issuing the command on VA or TP is alright.

I'll have to explain my track targets at some point and it would be weird if after voting you I never track you. Considering breadcrumbing, two things that could work;
- We track whoever we like tonight, but the official version is that you were my target and I had no result. It's potentially dangerous but it only "confirms" that you didn't pull the trigger that night.
- We track Razmos. Sounds like the only justifiable candidate after that EoD instead of you.
 
Hmm, you have a point. I do think it'd be good to track me at some point and then run with that story when it eventually comes out. I hope there's not a role left that can blow this up, but it's a good play.

But we can wait till after the next day phase, since yeah, Razmos is also a very good choice after that hammer.
 
A bit late here. Sorry for the long post, needed to make a general assessment of the game state to order my thoughts.

TLDR: I'd kill either VA or Chuggs tonight, what do you think? It would be a surprise because we're not going for trusted or confirmed players and rather for someone that started to get a bit of suspicion.

Doubting the first though; Blarg got into my head, he could be triple-bluffing for all I know.

Also, Razmos may be replaced and we won't be able to push that slot now considering what you said about leaving Aeleus' replacement some time before pursuing. I'd look into Z-Beat instead - I've been questioning the town reads on him - but don't join me on that super easily or anything. We could even argue about it for a while.

---------

1. Role distribution

1.1. Confirmed
1.1.1. Sample
- Sebastian, the Vanilla Townie

1.1.2. Town
- Natiko: The Player, the Roleblocker (cannot target the same person on consecutive nights)
- Fireblend: George, the Lover (no chat)
- Ynnek7: Evelyn, the Lover (no chat)
- flatearthpandas: the 1?-shot Party Host
- malus: Pierre, the Compulsive Fruit Vendor
- Stantastic: Linus, the 1-shot Friendly Neighbor
- NeonBorealis: Kent, the Odd-nights Commuter

1.1.3. Mafia
- Kalor: Shane, the Goon
- Verelios: Pam, the 2-shot Bus Driver
- Maolfunction: Morris, the 2-shot Strongman
- empressdonna/Reki: Sam, the Tracker

1.2. Claimed
- Blargonaut: the Messenger (50 characters, can't divulge role information)

1.3. Who knows
- Lone_Prodigy
- Stuart444/TheChuggernaut
- Vincent Alexander
- weemadarthur
- Razmos
- Aeleus/nin
- TearablePuns
- Z-Beat

With the amount of flipped PRs the odds of a high amount of VTs in the setup are pretty low. Two or three seems ok, which sounds on the low end for a Normal game and look more like a RM config. Then again, what do I know about these tags.

Wee said it, the game is lacking in protective roles. There's either a Doc - that could be wee themselves, they've been a bit more quiet than normal in my opinion - or, less likely, a Smith out there, and I'd bet the Smith has some cooldown/limited shots that could explain why we're just hearing about it on D4. Even if the lack of highlight tags is pretty telling, I believe LP is right on the money here;

Lone_Prodigy said:
This whole dishing out items/messages business seems like this game's gimmick, countered by the town roleblocker, the scum switcher, and whatever else is out there. It's mostly NAI to me except in Stan's case.

The (video)game is all about relationships, talking and gifting in the context of working on a farm. And that's why we have a Tracker.

Blargonaut was probably blocked by Natiko N1, that's what explains Z-Beat not receiving the fruit. But I don't want to put this idea out there since Z-Beat could be a good candidate to push for.

Another idea is that Blarg is a neutral and/or JOAT - what would be the odds of the more fitting player for that alignment to roll that though? 1/20 is too low -. The Winter Festival and BP Vest could be his other powers.

If there's in fact a neutral - the 16/4 split could have some breathing room for one - we want them to win and exit the game as soon as possible, a shame Aeleus said it was all a ruse on their part.


2. Activity

0iAPxq5.png


Going just by activity, Chuggs, VA and TP look like good targets if we want quieter phases that could allow us to control the conversation more easily.

*Blarg is out because he ruins the graph, all you need to know is that he posts a lot.


3. Everyone's reads

m3cIa9B.png


This one is not really super precise as I interpreted a lot of stances from ambiguous comments, but if we're going for targets that could bother us too much in the future those could be VA, wee and Blarg - although the latter is pretty jumpy -. The caveat being that their flips could be correctly read as getting players out of the way due to who they were pushing.

If we want to reduce the trusted players' pool, targets would be Blarg or fep. Blarg is a wildcard though, he could be lunched any given phase for a minor comment that looks suspicious. And let's be honest, it's just fun to have a chaotic player in there.


4. Replacements

nin may be good news for us. At times he fixiates on cases and players, but he's normally open to hear arguments and can be convinced of stuff. I've seen weird interactions with Stan here too. For whatever reason I feel like your style fits with his, have you played together before?

If Zeke replaces Razmos, that's not so good. He is pushy and won't stop going after players until they're dead. We may have to either misdirect his suspicion or openly argue with him as to make a case for him founded over the shaky Razmos style - they've been doing it all game for Donna/me, it's only fair! -.

If Loki replaces Razmos, that's fine. She's pretty good at game-solving but is much more open to consider options and backtrack. I fear her vote analysis skills though.

---------

Don't know how this works when players are being replaced, so sorry if this is not ok, but;

Track: Razmos

I may push wee for a bit at day start, she changed her read on Chuggs in a matter of hours for no apparent reason.
 
malus was blocked by Natiko D1*, not Blarg. It's also probable that the Fruit Vendor was Compulsive to bait the Tracker.

Also forgot to note, activity may be circumstantial, but there's a clear trend of a handful of players being more active than others, and as such probably more influential to discussion.
 
malus was blocked by Natiko D1*, not Blarg. It's also probable that the Fruit Vendor was Compulsive to bait the Tracker.

Also forgot to note, activity may be circumstantial, but there's a clear trend of a handful of players being more active than others, and as such probably more influential to discussion.
That's a heck of a post, I agree with pretty much all of your points. We're getting to the point of the game where I want town to start losing the more active voices town has because it will be easier to influence town in this game if we're the most active players. That's just generally how games on this community goes, people who talk the most tend to get the most influence. I absolutely think we need to kill Chuggs, TP and wee and if we can get those three dead, I'll be much more satisfied with our chances of winning the game. (But also kill LP, we cannot forget him, lol)
 
That's a heck of a post, I agree with pretty much all of your points. We're getting to the point of the game where I want town to start losing the more active voices town has because it will be easier to influence town in this game if we're the most active players. That's just generally how games on this community goes, people who talk the most tend to get the most influence. I absolutely think we need to kill Chuggs, TP and wee and if we can get those three dead, I'll be much more satisfied with our chances of winning the game. (But also kill LP, we cannot forget him, lol)

Totally agreed on the influence there, controlling the narrative will be key. In the meta low-content players are usually suspected just for that, maybe the only notable exception being LP.

It's not super likely or anything, but if VA flips Cop they'll turbo us so hard after his "Neon, Mao, Reki." post.

Then again, if he is a Cop we can't let him live anyways.
 
Totally agreed on the influence there, controlling the narrative will be key. In the meta low-content players are usually suspected just for that, maybe the only notable exception being LP.

It's not super likely or anything, but if VA flips Cop they'll turbo us so hard after his "Neon, Mao, Reki." post.

Then again, if he is a Cop we can't let him live anyways.
even they do try, he was very wrong about Neon there.

I don't think there's a straight up Cop in this game tho, we'd both be outed by now for sure if there was.
 
Went ahead and hammered myself. Didn't look like there was a reason to let town keep talking for the rest of the day, would rather night starts with as little attention towards yourself as possible, Reki.

Youve got quite the task, sorry I wasn't able to do more for you today, yesterday turned out to be a complete mess. Good luck!
 
Oh, no.

Before you leave let me ask, Mao. Do you regret doing these shitty things to people you liked?
I've played the game as scum enough that I don't really regret playing the game as scum, but I have over the years tended to scale back on doin the really shitty things to people. It's not fun when your actions starts rifts because you've been overly aggressive at people.

Now I can safely say I just have fun playing the game and stay away from being straight up insulting.
 
Thank you, Corporate Logo.

Wanted to note that I hate hate hate double-posting, so if you're interested in my descent into madness I'll need you to post in between my posts. Just a period is fine, pleaaase.
 
How sweet of you. But I'll need to put in some work before that happens, sorry to disappoint.

I'll be probably out next phase or the one after that, the PoE will eventually crush me under its weight and the voting records are too telling. Those late votes from Z-Beat and Blarg look pretty good and made that turbo viable, when Aeleus/nin was a real candidate. Even LP looks good there. It's quite literally an impossible win with the need of at least four more mislunches and the respective factional kills, without even taking into account protection or ties.

But town enjoys their meals more when they resist and struggle. It's the sense of accomplishment, you know. Of really working hard for a win, it's the thrill of the flip. And Mao died to leave me in a better spot. Kalor and Vere did their best too. I can't just give up, and there's still a lot of fun to have in here.


1. Night kill

So what about a no-kill night to trick the Doctor and mess up with people?

Just kidding. With the walls closing in I'm forced to undermine the confirmed pool. Can't believe that you put those strong shots in there just to mislead mafia, so there should be at least some protective stuff. The two more likely in my mind;

1.1. A Doctor: this is the best scenario in my opinion, even if we haven't hit them yet - and I'll need to in the next two nights - we wifomed the NK target last time and I made sure to comment that the meanies could be willing to go for unexpected victims to tank a PR. Which makes it easier to kill one of the confirmed players this night, it'll be kind of similar to the classic BP dilemma for them;

nrYXEUY.gif


1.2. A Smith/Item giver/Someone with a BP: this would be worse because the BP stays intact until activated. So if I want to go for someone like fep, his confirmed status makes it more likely for him to have received one of these. If that happened, that was after N2, considering he would've mentioned it here otherwise;

I can confirm one role, but gonna sit on it for right now

(Not the BP Vest, since that would defeat the point, but rather the fact that he can confirm another role)

Then again, I'm this close to being sure that the Razmos BP is a ruse from Blarg, the caveats being that the latter seems to have a hard time keeping a lie running too long and the role actually making sense within the flavor context.

Now, the targets;

1.3. Confirmed/Widely trusted
1.3.1. flatearthpandas
1.3.1.1.
Pros: He really wanted to vote me out.
1.3.1.2. Cons: It'd look pretty suspicious that most of the NKs suspected one of us at one point or another, someone like LP may notice it and decide to go for the obvious suspect.
1.3.2. Stantastic
1.3.2.1.
Pros: He won't be voted out before me, the only upside of keeping him alive was in the case I flipped and people started wondering if it was all a gambit, and thus voting him out before Mao.
1.3.2.2. Cons: He is like the only player in the whole roster that has a bit of trust in me. Quite fond of the kawaii avatar.
*Blarg also fits in this category.

1.4. Could be troublesome in the future
1.4.1. TearablePuns
1.4.1.1.
Pros: Going for him will make it easier to control discussion, he's one of the only players that reads each line in a post. He won't go for me anymore.
1.4.1.2. Cons: He's been good at making cases against other players. Last phase he almost had wee, so he's good if I want to dissapear in the background for a bit.
1.4.2. Lone_Prodigy
1.4.2.1.
Pros: This NK will need to happen sooner or later, he's too good come lategame.
1.4.2.2. Cons: He is so reasonable he doesn't think we could be as stacked as we really were, and could be an ally against turbo suggestions.
*Blarg, flatearthpandas and TheChuggernaut also fit in this category.

1.5. Too talkative for capitalism to pack and sell
1.5.1. Blargonaut
1.5.1.1.
Pros: Quiet and controllable days. More predictable voting results.
1.5.1.2. Cons: Funny to have around. Someone may confirm the Messages tomorrow - and as such completely shutting down his case - but that's irrelevant since most players trust him anyways.
1.5.2. TheChuggernaut
1.5.2.1.
Pros: Won't go for me, won't be there to help with turbos.
1.5.2.2. Cons: He's like my role model of last mafiosi alive, days would be way quieter.
1.5.3. weemadarthur
1.5.3.1.
Pros: They've been a bit more involved lately, and are likely to eventually connect the dots.
1.5.3.2. Cons: They've been suspected by quite some players, and have made some cases against other players, kind of like TP.

So yeah, let's go the boring route with flatearthpandas. We'll be taking a double risk though; a potential protection and maybe being accused of killing him because he was going after me. There's some dangerous people within the rest but I really enjoy having them around and arguing. And some of them could be viable lunches, unlike fep.

Kill: flatearthpandas

Sorry, fep, but hey! Had a lot of fun talking with you, thanks for the patience for my questions - unlike others like VA, who didn't even bother to answer sometimes. Yeah, big side-eye -.

Now, if you happen to be a JOAT, that'd be neat.


2. Tracking

Ok. Here I need to spot the fabled protective PR ASAP but also need a target that could be justified from a town!Reki perspective in a future claim. So I can't go for the likes of fep, Stan, LP, wee or Blarg.

People seem to trust Chuggs and TP has been doing some fantastic work. I expressed my doubts about Z-Beat but that last vote looks too good. So only two remain; Zeke and nin.

Let's go with something different this time, just for fun. Voting records;

2.1. Razmos/EzekelRAGE
2.1.1.
D1: flatearthpandas
2.1.2. D2: Kalor
2.1.3. D3: Verelios
2.1.4. D4: NeonBorealis
2.1.5. D5: Maolfunction

2.2. Aeleus/nin
2.2.1.
D1: empressdonna
2.2.2. D2: Reki
2.2.3. D3: malus
2.2.4. D4: No vote
2.2.5. D5: weemadarthur

So, Razmos/Zeke's record is fantastic. Maybe even too good, the argument against these two should need a bit of evil mastermind conpiracy theory, the kind of stuff that appears in MyLo. Honestly surprised here, I'll need to rethink my public read on them.

On the other hand, Aeleus/nin's is pretty bad. Off-wagon, alternative train to a mafia, and an unexplained vote. Yeah, no way town!Reki would overlook that;

Track: nin

What does Spec think of this? Dunno if you have open spoilers yet, but I'd love to read what they thought could be the best target to track when this all ends. Especially if I missed obvious breadcrumbs or something.


3. Other notes

3.1.PrettyTowny&SuperConsistentRekiReads;

TOWN
Stantastic
flatearthpandas

Lone_Prodigy

Blargonaut

weemadarthur

Z-Beat (after that vote)
TearablePuns
Razmos/EzekelRAGE

TheChuggernaut
Aeleus/nin
MAFIA

3.2. Phase strategy

Keep the low profile, avoid openly engaging with accusers and prod here and there, quite simple. I'll start the day with more of a case for Aeleus, be upset about the turbo - not so much though - work on the Chuggs' reads on Maol and try to adapt to whatever happens.

The Z-Beat push will be harder, but wee/nin/Zeke could be viable.

Graphs take quite some time, I'll update/make them again N6 if I survive until then.

There's no neutral unless their win-con is pretty unique like "Protect X players from being night-killed." or something. We'd have heard of them by now otherwise, although there could be a Luncher turned Survivor somewhere - and at that point there's little to gain from overthinking about them, they'd side with town anyways -.

I don't buy LP's theory that Z-Beat could be Ascetic, he would have claimed considering he could have gotten way more heat at the time. You wouldn't hide it from him in a Normal setup either, as someone - fep? - pointed out.

Note to myself: don't propose any kind of short exercise, that always leads to turbos in later phases and I'll be surely up there between the most suspected.

Reki out!

jAC9QFm.gif
 

Pedro

The Last Airbender is actually a great movie
First, I genuinely love this research (and the gifs!) and wish scum was more like this, I appreciate you.

Second, I'll make the request in the spec chat to see who they think should be tracked.

Third,
Kill: flatearthpandas

Track: nin
Commands received.

And finally,
.
So you don't have to double post.
 
Thank you! It's probably not that common because those are pretty obvious targets and the overthinking is unnecessary, but it's so much fun. In fact;

But it has to be someone relatively strategic-minded since they chose to kill FEP a soft-confirmed-via-Power-type Town last Night, that's thinning the trusted herd, that's chess
hmm, I don't feel like ninAeleus would be capable of killing FEP.

No, I think I'm thinking it's really between weemad and Z-Beat then. weemad's skilled enough to make that kind of solo chess play

Come on now Blarg, that's like the most obvious NK this game. Anyone in the roster could have pulled that off.

And just for the record, Mao, Blarg, please don't feel bad about my comments about last EoD. I have nothing but the better intentions and I meant no offense there, promise. And it's a "natural" escalation of my earlier stance on voting, my hand was forced. Also;

Mafia can you kill LP Tonight I'm still nervous TY

We'll see.

The mafia may turn out to be bastards after all.

Ouch.

By the way, wee, no idea if you're breadcrumbing with that rambling or what, but connecting the caps doesn't seem to make sense. Or maybe you have a result on someone, telegraphed it and nobody noticed, and that's what you're pointing at?

And oh my, this is the most useless I've been with a role . How unlucky.

Also, Pedro, just noticed;

You win when your faction controls the majority of votes at day start.

This would be an impossible wincon in a 1v1 final day scenario, that'd be a... tie? Is this the right phrasing?

If I'm missing something and an answer would give away stuff then please just ignore.
 

Pedro

The Last Airbender is actually a great movie
This would be an impossible wincon in a 1v1 final day scenario, that'd be a... tie? Is this the right phrasing?

In a hypothetical game, a day with one living mafia member and one non-mafia one would end on a tie, yes (unless someone would self vote which isn't smart). But then the mafia member could NK the other player on the following night and theoretically the next day would begin with 1 mafia member and 0 non-mafia ones, giving mafia the majority and victory.

It's why every game in our community is ended before it reaches this 1v1 scenario, because mafia's victory is guaranteed anyway and there's no need to let it play out.
 
I mean, yes, but going by this;

Pedro in one of the design threads said:
Something to always be mindful is how killing a role works: killing doesn't stop the actions of the dead player.

In the same hypothetical the last non-mafia could be a Vig, for example, and the game result in a final tie. Since reviewers always look out for those kind of scenarios I could assume that in that theoretical game, with that way of phrasing the mafia wincon, there are no non-mafia Vigilantes. Unless the night actions priority list of the designer puts one of the two shots above the other - for whatever reason - and that could feel a bit unfair to the player in question.

Then there's the Roleblocker, although the "You cannot target the same person on consecutive nights." condition would kick in there and eventually give the win to the mafia I guess.

What threw me off there is the lack of different phrasing that's also used like "at least 50%" or "or nothing can prevent this from happening.".

You know what, please don't answer, feels like I'm dancing around what's asking for too much info and what's not and it's getting uncomfortable. This is not the place to talk about this, sorry!

Its possible Natiko roleblocked Malus N1 and Vere switched Z-Beat with a scummate (which would explain no one fessing up to receiving a message).

Yay, he noticed! Genuinely happy about this, not sharing that explanation felt so wrong.
 
I may be too paranoid of the mythical protective PR but wee may have just slipped;

I’d been thinking scum hit febe N2 but with a strongman they may have targeted kenny after all.

As far as I recall Ynnek7 never claimed to receive a BP, and they're working with the assumption that he was under protection that night.

It was Razmos who talked about the hat. And guess who was the first - and only besides me - to ever use the word "Smith" to refer to it, it was wee. Unless they mixed players - I don't think so because wee quotes the pertinent message a while later - they have more info than they should. Like, they're outright calling a NK on them;

I hide breadcrumbs very well. It’s why I had to point them out earlier. Nobody ever understands mine.

And so they were actually pointing out at their own breadcrumbs. I don't really want to go for them, but a full claim could eventually stop their lunch and re-direct town's appetite to any other candidate. It's super risky to leave them alive, and that's without even going into the headache of night protections or considering the chance that they may be bluffing.

I'll guess a full claim is in order if they're a viable candidate at EoD, no sense to speculate just yet if it could be solved tomorrow.
 
Hey Pedro, how's your recovery going? Hope it's good!

TLDR; Wee is not the NK because reasons.

Kill: TearablePuns

Track: TearablePuns

By the way please don't feel forced to read my ramblings, I put no requests for you in there this time, and all the questions are just my stream of consciousness. Now if you feel like answering these in Spec or something, I won't stop you or anything.


1. Role distribution

1.1. Confirmed
1.1.1. Sample
- Sebastian, the Vanilla Townie

1.1.2. Town
- Natiko: The Player, the Roleblocker (cannot target the same person on consecutive nights)
- Fireblend: George, the Lover (no chat)
- Ynnek7: Evelyn, the Lover (no chat)
- flatearthpandas: Gust, the 1-shot Party Host
- malus: Pierre, the Compulsive Fruit Vendor
- Stantastic: Linus, the 1-shot Friendly Neighbor
- NeonBorealis: Kent, the Odd-nights Commuter
- Vincent Alexander: Abigail, the Vanilla Townie
- Aeleus/nin: Demetrius, the Vanilla Townie

1.1.3. Mafia
- Kalor: Shane, the Goon
- Verelios: Pam, the 2-shot Bus Driver
- Maolfunction: Morris, the 2-shot Strongman
- empressdonna/Reki: Sam, the Tracker


1.2. Claimed
- Blargonaut: Mayor Lewis, the Messenger (50 characters, can't divulge role information)
- weemadarthur: Harvey, the Doctor


1.3. Who knows
- Lone_Prodigy
- Stuart444/TheChuggernaut
- Razmos/EzekelRAGE
- TearablePuns
- Z-Beat

Nothing really new here outside of some speculation;

I don't think there's another investigative role out there anymore. There're a bunch of powers that can be confirmed - Ice Festival, Party Host, Lovers, Fruit Vendor, Friendly Neighbor, Messenger - and a plain Cop doesn't make sense, it would be too much and, as Mao pointed out, it would have discovered at least one of us. Maybe a Rolecop, but the VT claim Maol did wasn't openly refuted either (although it was criticized). Dunno.

The Smith is a lie. There's a couple things going against that theory - like the lack of highlight tags and the fact that fep, a confirmed player, didn't receive a BP - but I just found this piece of evidence;

Where did me having a vest come from
i thought raz claimed they got a message giving them a hard hat that would save them from attack.
Thanks. Why would you believe the message is real and not a joke msg from blarg
That doesn’t explain why you believed raz’s claim to be a real bp.

Unless Zeke was baiting, he didn't know about the BP message, which means he didn't get it when replacing in. Why not? Because it wasn't considered as relevant info for a replacement.

Then there's wee claiming to be Hated now, but Blarg used "they" to refer to the recipient of his message last night, and although he could have used it to indicate an undetermined player, he probably couldn't resist the coincidence of using wee's actual pronoun. No one else claimed to have received a message, Blarg has been pushing for wee for a while now and, once again, no highlights. So yeah, hats off to Blarg, he's been extremely good at misdirecting.

And so if wee is a protective role, they're most likely a Doctor.


Well thank you folks, all that speculation and you just go and confirm it with your claims like it's nothing.

I've also thought of a crazy gambit in which they're baited into protecting me and then we do a no-kill night, getting soft-confirmed in the process, but it's too high risk and super hard to pull off in the current scenario.

Seems interested in tracking night actions for info

And it seems like they found the breadcrumbs. Huh. That could actually be good bait...


2. Unnecessary data

I'll put these here just for reference, since the targets today will be picked in relation to the claims.

Rx1HpsB.png


*Blarg is out again, and I'm this close to getting Chuggs out too, you graph-ruiner.
**The tendency (trend?) lines are softened, that's why they look wrong at points.

QSJ1A3N.png


*Once again, there's a lot of interpretation going on in here. Note: third day in a row that Z-Beat has little in the form of reads, that's a good argument against him.


3. Night kill

3.1. Crumbing Doctor

So, to the elephant in the room, wee's claim. It was uncalled for; they were getting some votes but nowhere near nin nor majority. That Hated message from Blarg probably caused it, though.

Here's the thing. The obvious play is to NK them. That leaves protection out of the picture and everything would be in order to enter the last third of the game. At day start, people will probably go for either Z-Beat or me, they may even want to turbo. The people who pushed wee may get some heat too, like Zeke, Blarg and TP, but I don't think any of these lunches is likely.

But.

There're a few reasons that make me not want to pick wee;
- It's the most boring of the targets this night, and as said, my stance is not to kill the people I need to kill to win but rather to have some fun.
- It's actually enjoyable to try and guess who are they going to protect.
- It was actually a bit sad when they said;

The bit about working was sorta a joke....and sorta to acknowledge VA doing effort. Granted I’ve put MORE effort into games, but well....I gave that up once mafias stopped letting me live past D4 in general, it was all so....wasted.

And most importantly; it's a chance at chaos. As said earlier, the PoE will destroy me until the boat changes its direction, and not killing a claimed Doctor is too unconventional of a play to ignore.

Then again, although I hope to shake the understanding some players have of the game, there's people that will see straight throught the ruse, like LP or Z-Beat. But the thing is that there're still players on there that are either too crazy (Blarg) or sometimes a bit stubborn (like Zeke or TP) to let this go without questions. I mean, just look at this;

But at the same time it's an easy fake claim for scum since we haven't had any deathless nights.

But if you are town doc........why did you believe the bp

There's a seed of doubt right there, and a seed is all we need to start a new case. Then, after the case is solved - be it because wee is actually lunched or another player is out and I NK wee next night - the cases against Z-Beat, me, or one of the people who pushed the Doctor can be made. The difference? We're one phase ahead. So,

i gave you my targets etc. have fun.

I'm sorry, wee, I truly am, but I can't kill you this night. Hoping you understand and don't get upset about it. The good news is that I should be defending you, it's the consistent thing to do with my reads and that could score me some town points after the flip. Although that's too obvious, yeah, erase that last part.

Now, can this backfire horribly? Of course. I'm half-expecting the NK to be blocked and town to lunch me tomorrow. But that'd be a way more interesting day than going with the Doctor NK, since a lot of unexpected stuff can happen. So yeah, don't criticize me Spec, I know it's a terrible, non-recommended play but it could give you more of a spectacle, stop whining.


3.2. Don't take it personal
Mafia might want to not kill me tonight.

aTWQfm0.gif


We'll be going with a simple PoE tonight, but aiming for more of an unexpected player considering we went for fep last time. Tried to get wee's last target in her breadcrumbs - who would be a safe target tonight because they probably have the "not two nights in a row" condition - but no luck. I'm honestly too dumb to understand your breadcrumbs, wee. Apologies.

So, we can't go for;
- Stan: he's confirmed, has been playing from his gut rather than by making arguments and I find it cute that he trusts me, even if just a bit.
- LP: widely trusted and one of wee's strong town-reads. I also think he's been the best town player this game - willing to re-evaluate where others just fixiate on targets - and want to discuss more with him. To keep in mind; not killing him tonight means I can't target there until N8, considering I'd need to go for wee first, and that's a lot of time for him to solve the game.
- Zeke: he's one of the main pieces of tomorrow's ruse, I'll need him tunneling for everything to work out as hoped.
- Z-Beat: he'll probably be the alternative to my lunch, although he has a pretty good voting record. I basically cannot NK him.

That would leave us with Blarg, Chuggs and TP.

Here's the thing. wee could either just give up and not even send the command tonight, target one of their town-reads, or try to anticipate that I wouldn't go for such an obvious target and go for a player they have more of a neutral stance on. The three above could fit in that category.

Blarg is the most trusted of them - and could help to induce some chaos into the phase - but both Chuggs and TP could face a case against them in the following days. Especially the latter, for pushing the Doctor so hard, having somewhat of a stubborn approach to some cases - I've been loving your work this game, TP, but it's kind of hard for you to look outside of that "priority" list you made - and voting off-wagon last phase despite making a strong case for wee.

Chuggs has been a bit more trusted, and LP seems to think he's clean due to the vote records. I'm one of his top suspects, but I brought some attention to his read on Maol and a NK could mean someone like LP remembers that and makes the connection.

This one is hard. I really want to go with TP but he's so good at distracting town's attention, and a NK is basically reducing the pool of potentially suspicious players, which is super bad for my odds at surviving. But at the same time Chuggs is the obvious target mafia!Reki would go for, I can see the questions after the flip. But Chuggs is more likely to be protected by wee, and also! I just remembered;

Yes, thank you, even if Kalor does get lunched today, acting like he's the best option with absolutely no counter or anyone else on any other wagons other than Donna, who Reki really can't even defend for, just isn't good for town.

Let's be nice to the replacement then, sounded fair at the time. Dunno what to make of that comment after his flip though.


You know what TP, you've been putting in great work this game, I really like that you spot little details and have a good memory to bring back stuff from earlier days. But I can't engage with hottakes in my current situation, so this was me at the time for like 10 minutes;

RHb0TWq.gif


(Know you'll appreciate the reference)

So TP it is.

Had a lot of fun arguing with you, hope we play again soon!


4. Tracking

The thing now is that we know who is the protective PR and as such I can start repeating targets with my Tracking if that's necessary to look more towny. I'll even make a wild guess and say that there's probably no more PRs alive outside of the Messenger, Doctor and Festival Organizer, so we can relax a bit here.

In fact let's go easy tonight, it'd be hard to explain that in six nights the targets of the NK and my Tracking never were the same. Good reasons to suspect him;
- The push for the Doctor. I could even theorize a mafia!Rolecop to justify suspecting there.
- His off-wagon vote after that initial wee push.

So, yeah, TP again, how original.


5. Scenarios

The NK target is so terrible I need to consider some potential outcomes. From most to least likely, in my opinion;


5.1. Some players see through the ruse

This will happen, it's super obvious. If not because it's a predictable trap, because it leaves the reads of players like LP and Stan untouched. They can continue pushing for their suspect and trusting wee. Nothing is more comfortable than not having to re-think your solid reads, right?

Z-Beat and I would probably be the lunch candidates in that scenario. Stan and LP could be allies to look at. I'd also need to either start some case on Zeke based on the wee push or just play defense the whole phase.


5.2. Wee blocks the NK

I don't think this is super likely as TP doesn't seem to be trusted by wee. But in the case that they go with a wild target for reasons, it could get real bad for me in there considering we'd be adding one more mislunch needed to MyLo and wee could confirm that TP was mafia's target and, as such, probably town.

We'd need to push Z-Beat or Zeke in that case.


5.3. Some players push wee

Zeke, Blarg and TP would be the more likely to try and pull this off. Once again, it's comfortable when you don't need to move your reads around, and I'm giving them some space for that this night. Blarg is so chaotic it will probably enter in one of his string of posts questioning why is wee alive, making for some good noise.

This is the best case for me, as it could take over the whole phase with an useless discussion.


5.4. wee goes mad they're still in the game

I'm sorry.


5.5. People suspect Blarg is the only crazy player that could try to pull a mafia gambit like this

This would be good, but Blarg can swing a vote at any given moment so I'd need to be careful with my posts and votes. And the GIFs would be missed.

I defended Blarg a lot in an earlier phase, that's something else to consider.


5.6. Mass claim

This is not really related to the flip, but could happen nonetheless if people are desperate for information after the game didn't end with nin's flip.

My claim is ready to go (just have to add the TP explanation), the only caveats being that it's too careful in its writing - since it's been prepared for a while - and that I have yet to get a result at all. In a game with so many moving parts, getting "No Results" all the time is super hard to believe. I may need to invent some stuff here.

The sensible thing is that the most suspicious Vanillas would go first instead of a claimed Tracker though. In that case, Z-Beat/Zeke/Chuggs - although their voting records are better than mine -.


6. Other notes

wee and LP are probably next, in that order.

The Reads gathered above gives an impression of small clusters/duos of players that mutually trust themselves. For example, wee and LP wouldn't go for each other, neither would LP and Blarg or Stan and wee - at least not yet -.

For all the people suspecting me, they surely do not like to engage when I make cases. It's getting a bit frustrating to be honest, to just hear "Yeah they're putting in effort." but nobody openly agreeing/disagreeing/questioning stuff. Are my posts that bad? Do they somehow sense that they don't come from a good place?

By the way did I go too far with the "Please don't turbo" post? It was a bit more confrontational at first but I rewrote it like three times to hit a more conciliatory tone. And there were still comments about it as if I was super mad or something.

I'll probably try the "I'm so sorry nin, I don't know anymore with this game." discourse tomorrow for the "That's anti-town behavior, Reki." and "Don't give up!" answers that give a general good feeling to the involved players when the sad poster accepts the advise and moves on. Then I could commit to a bit of prodding/game-solving and a vote on either Z-Beat or Chuggs/Zeke, depending on how things go. It's the natural progression of wrong!town!Reki in my opinion.

Although that sounds too evil and manipulative, I already feel terrible about it. Hmmm. I'll ask the pillow.

Good night!
 

Pedro

The Last Airbender is actually a great movie
Hey Pedro, how's your recovery going? Hope it's good!

TLDR; Wee is not the NK because reasons.

Kill: TearablePuns

Track: TearablePuns
Good night!

Command received. And it's going okay, my mom's with me now and she's being very much a mom taking care of me, lol. Just one week and a half left and if everything goes right I'll be able to walk normally.
 
That's nice! Thanks for the update.

Congratulations, LP! You had me totally fooled, I even said you were the best town player this time. Fantastic game, incredible vote analysis, the win is totally deserved.

And I'm sorry, Z-Beat, but you understood that you were left there to be lunched. Had a lot of fun playing with you though!


1. What a mess

Now, let me admit; I'm bummed.

Things turned out about as good as one could've hoped with two players out but I was wrong in all the possible ways. You can laugh all you want Spec, it's fair and deserved.

A ton of paragraphs went into fruitless speculation and plotting an idiotic gambit when LP was ten steps ahead of me and not only didn't I notice, I;
- Thought he was a nice town leader.
- Didn't want to NK him.
- Discarded the chance of a relevant neutral a while ago, when it totally made sense numbers-wise.
- Never thought it weird that a normally quiet player was being so active and helpful early in the game.
- Couldn't stop him, checked the thread a couple times yesterday but was too busy to post. Maybe I wouldn't have stopped the win even if I wasn't busy.

What's funny, I believed him when he said;
I would've circled back to TP so thanks for the flip. His death really looks like scum trying to avoid the (claimed) doctor protection and trying to hit a PR.

And thought that it was an interesting detail that players thought that I was aiming for PRs this late in the game instead of just wanting to frame wee. Turns out he was lying.

And so I made a fool of myself by thinking I had a good understanding of the game-state and predicting a bunch of stuff that never happened. Because, you know, a mafia player should have a good handle on the game by D7, right? Well, turns out that;
- The NK wasn't as unorthodox of a move as I thought it'd be to attract players' attention and drive discussion.
- I didn't even consider that wee could be limited shots. The why is beyond me, it's such an stupid oversight.
- They think they're alive because they baited with a self-protection breadcrumb, when I literally didn't get even one of these.
- They're somehow ok and not widely suspected, not even the lunch had an active vote there by EoD.
- There was an easy Z-Beat push for which neither I nor anyone else was a serious alternative.
- No more "Mafia wouldn't be so stacked to save a Goon!" player to defend me anymore.

So yeah, the plan backfired but in all the unexpected ways and with the wrong lessons. LP even thanked the flip of TP, and now we know that was because he needed Z-Beat to be the lunch instead. Come. On!

I'm a disaster. If they lunch me next phase we'll lose the game just because. Donna, Kalor, Vere, Mao, I'm sorry. You did your best and I ruined it.


2. Whatever

There's one other thing the Neutral win changed and that's the final day being with 3 players instead of 4. So even less space to push for someone, and any particular player will be forced to contrast my case against someone else's to decide on a vote.

I have no energy to overthink this, sorry. I'll just put the relevant quotes here;
Mao and nin were town/scum and it makes sense for scum to be on the nin train. Out of all the people on that Wee and Stan are the two red flags. And then Stan no votes yesterday when it was Wee/nin which feels very unstan
Thats what I’m thinking too. That and them trying to get us to kill Wee today. Of course I could be overthinking this and maybe Wee is just scum
So once again chuggs leads us astray
Tbh I can see a scum chuggs acting aloof
Zeke you’ve seen me as scum. This isn’t my scum game.

Kill me if you want and kill Beat tomorrow, I don’t care
weemad why didn't you Protect malus that Night when he had just claimed as Fruit Vendor that's like never a Mafia Role and you could've saved him
Vote: Z-beat
*truffleshuffle*

Basically there're some particular threads for everyone to follow so I've got a chance at surviving.

Kill: EzekelRAGE

Can't risk him randomly tunneling on me. Stan is the obvious pick but I want him there come last day, Blarg is a fan-favorite and wee is suspicious. Chuggs is more open to hear cases and change votes, too.

Track: Blargonaut

Tricky, whoever I pick is basically cleared in town!Reki's mind. So it'd basically need to be the next NK, as to not enter the final day with a claim to have cleared someone that could be doubted.

Question. If someone tracked me, they'd get the two targets, right? Hope Blarg messages Zeke.

---------

Now I'll have to be all upset at day start after that turbo. I don't enjoy scolding, you know?

Stop the game, I want to get off!!!
 

Pedro

The Last Airbender is actually a great movie
Commands received. And ahhh, don't be so hard on yourself! I fully trust you can win this.

Also, yep, a tracker would see you visiting 2 players.
 
Thank you folks, your encouragement is appreciated.

Let me correct my question. If I was tracked last night, would the result be just "TearablePuns" or "TearablePuns and TearablePuns"?
 
Oh, ok, my apologies. Was it because I used the current game as an example? Just wondering to myself, not asking by the way.

And just to note, yeah, claiming Vanilla was always the only option I had today. I couldn't justify being alive next phase if I claimed Tracker.

Now, since wee spotted the breadcrumbs, it's on them to either call me out or outright trust me and not say a thing thinking that I may want to avoid the NK to get a red check for tomorrow.
 
Final day, wohoo! I'll take it. Sorry you were lunched like that, Chuggs. If it makes you feel any better I'm probably next, so you're winning anyways.

No kill (is this how you do it?)

Track: Blargonaut

If Blarg messages me tonight I won't be able to prove that I'm actually a Tracker, so I hope he goes for someone else.


1. Data

(This is here more for completion reasons than anything else)

1.1. Role distribution

1.1.1. Confirmed
1.1.1.1. Sample
- Sebastian, the Vanilla Townie

1.1.1.2. Town
- Natiko: The Player, the Roleblocker (cannot target the same person on consecutive nights)
- Fireblend: George, the Lover (no chat)
- Ynnek7: Evelyn, the Lover (no chat)
- flatearthpandas: Gust, the 1-shot Party Host
- malus: Pierre, the Compulsive Fruit Vendor
- Stantastic: Linus, the 1-shot Friendly Neighbor
- NeonBorealis: Kent, the Odd-nights Commuter
- Vincent Alexander: Abigail, the Vanilla Townie
- Aeleus/nin: Demetrius, the Vanilla Townie
- TearablePuns: Robin, the Vanilla Townie
- Z-Beat: Penny, the Vanilla Townie
- Razmos/EzekelRAGE: Maru, the Vanilla Townie
- Stuart444/TheChuggernaut: Krobus, the Vanilla Townie

1.1.1.3. Mafia
- Kalor: Shane, the Goon
- Verelios: Pam, the 2-shot Bus Driver
- Maolfunction: Morris, the 2-shot Strongman
- empressdonna/Reki: Sam, the Tracker

1.1.1.4. Neutral
- Lone_Prodigy (winner): Wizard, the Clairvoyant

1.1.2. Claimed
- Blargonaut: Mayor Lewis, the Messenger (50 characters, can't divulge role information)
- weemadarthur: Harvey, the 3-shot Doctor

1.1.3. Who knows
- Where's that Festival Organizer, did I miss it?


1.2. Activity

YNVNaT0.png


*Blarg is in now! Congratulations on making it!
**Again, the tendency (trend?) lines are softened, that's why these look wrong at points.


1.3. Reads

HtKBsND.png


*There may be some interpretation going but one thing is obvious; everyone wants me dead.


2. Final day approach

Ok, the final day is a puzzle and Blarg could be the key to it. I've thought of a couple options on how to approach it.


2.1. Option A: Pretend to be (kind of) normal

0bFP0s9.gif


I will speak of Box Peek in neutral language.
I will never leave earlier than...


Oh, wait, wrong dialogue.

I'll claim at the start of the day. It wouldn't make sense to withhold that information anymore since there'd be no more nights to use the power. And not claiming could get me in trouble if someone spots my breadcrumbs. What'd be hard would be not to spot them, I have only like 50 posts or something, come on folks, read my posts.

That'd need me to admit that I lied when claiming Vanilla, but no big deal. It was just a gambit to avoid a NK since a Tracker would like to keep playing over a Vanilla to potentially get a red check.

I have a nice little claim prepared and one of the counters to it would be that it's, as LP said, impeccable. Since there's a lot of detail there distrust is to be expected. No matter what happens though, I'll be probably tracking Blarg again and I'll accompany the claim with one of the following;


2.1.1. A red check on Blarg (3-players final day)

This path would be where Blarg is needed. I'll try and guess who is he going to message in the final night, NK them and Track Blarg. If our targets are actually aligned, at day start, I'll accuse him of having visited said player before he shares his target, and as such proving to him that I can actually track players. If it doesn't work, I could hold back when Blarg admits to have messaged said person with a "So that's why you targeted that person!", and push the other alive player with his help.


2.1.2. A green check on someone (3/4-players final day)

Pretty straightforward, I clear one of the remaining players and by elimination the other(s) one should be the candidate to push for. There's a caveat with a Ninja Theory in my claim, so again, I can change course if the situation demands it. I'll need to be super careful - which won't be weird since my stance the whole game has been to let phases play out instead of just quickly voting all the time - to pull this off.


2.1.3. A green check on the NK (3-players final day)

This would require to go the "I'm so useless with this role" route and, to be honest, that's a bit too much manipulation for my liking. It would also be pretty suspicious that in eight nights all I got was "No Results", even with such a reduced player pool.


2.2. Option B: Escape (the role)

HXVDa2H.gif


Wee not calling me out yesterday could've been them either;
- Trusting me enough to let it pass.
- Not actually knowing that I'm a Tracker.

This scenario includes no claim, just continuing my Vanilla act. It could be especially attractive as an option given that a mafia-aligned Tracker has been floated as a thing by a few players during the game, and as such it seems to make a lot of sense from a design standpoint to players like Blarg.

This can be played out with a couple variants;


2.2.1. NK wee (3-players final day)

They're the only one that maybe spotted the breadcrumbs with that quick re-read. Having them on the final day if I'm not gonna claim could be too risky, so I'd need them out to avoid that.

It'd mean a final day with the confirmed Stan and either Blarg or Chuggs, so Stan is obviously the one to ally with.


2.2.2. They're framing! (4-players final day)

I'll go into the day musing about the no-kill night. One of the presented explanations would be that the mafia is actually happy with the way things are going with 4 remaining players instead of 3 because they want to blend into the noise. That'd probably mean pointing fingers at either Blarg or wee. I don't want to overdo it though, or it'll look obviously suspicious.

As an aside, this could also be an act for any 4-players final day scenario, including one with a Tracker claim. With a no-kill night mafia would be effectively avoiding the Tracking but with the upside of having my push as a mislunch candidate available anyways, without extending the amount of day phases it takes for mafia to win.

Uh, that actually sounds pretty nice.


2.3. Option C: Revolt (and surrender)

EebpKBF.gif


I'll just claim meanie, congratulate everyone on the good game and end this quickly.

Yeah, that one doesn't sound alright.

---------

In any of these scenarios it's super likely that at least one of the alive players will see right through my gambit with the claim, the NK, or the lack of any of these. They may shout to the other than they need to turbo me to win, but I can reduce the risk of that happening by trying to disintegrate the Duos we identified with the Reads' analysis with the NK. In an ideal 3-players scenario, the two remaining don't fully trust each other, so there's more of a chance for me to not be voted out quickly.

And if there's doubt, they'll have to spot contradictions in my claim. It's dangerous to have a long claim like that this late in the game, but I just accepted that if we have a shot at winning, it has to be this way, with actual well-reasoned arguments. I don't want to snip the victory either, it'd be nice if everyone has some time to talk and argue. If we lose due to this, oh well, at least I was consistent.

Doorknob rotation almost complete.


3. Night targets

So, ever since LP left the game I've been wondering about the amount of players on the final day. With everyone but Stan being a potential lunch candidate - some more likely than others - I've come to the conclusion that the odds of winning in a 3-players final day are worse than in the 4-players scenario. Mainly because;
- Any lunch would need 3 votes instead of 2. That makes it harder for me to win, but also makes it harder to just turbo me.
- In a 3-players final phase, anyone will be forced to weigh my case against the one of the other remaining player, and in a 1v1 comparison I lose to everyone except maybe Chuggs. With 4 alive, it's a 1v1v1 in the mind of everyone and, as such, a bit of a harder call to make.

The only 3-player scenario that may work in my favor could be with wee and Blarg and trying to mislunch the Messenger, but that's a stretch considering their latest comments in which they seem less inclined to consider Blarg.

For now we'll leave it at four, I really liked the chance of forming that "They're comfortable with my push!" narrative, be it with a Tracker claim or not. And it's more unexpected and fun!

The Tracking target is almost irrelevant, just want to go with wee because there's a super small chance they're actually a JOAT.

Basically, there's someone (else) lying. Unless I missed something - and that could be likely - no one has claimed the Ice Festival thing. Why would that be?

It's either Chuggs or wee, and it's either just a shot to use that bit of flavor - which is probably there as a confirmation source since town lacks in investigative power - or part of a JOAT-type role. Wee's claim could pretty well be a gambit to tank a NK after using their shots, or Chuggs's claim could be an attempt to misdirect the NK because they still have something to use. Like, it wouldn't make sense for Chuggs, if he is out of shots, to lie so late in the game when they're a serious lunch candidate.

But I need to track Blargonaut as a way to prove that I'm actually a Tracker. So yeah, No kill and Blargonaut will be the targets.


4. Potential questions

Let's try and practice with some potential questions I could get;


4.1. Why hasn't mafia killed you yet?

My guess all game was because;
- They didn't spot my breadcrumbs.
- I was on some people's short list.

Last two phases, no idea. Maybe they want to see me suffer.

Are you the last baddie Stan? This is for the avatar, I knew it.


4.2. Why did you push/vote X person if you got a "No Results" after three mafiosi were dead?

Because I couldn't stop thinking about a potential Ninja. In general terms a Switcher could be designed as a counter to an investigative role, but the detail that didn't quite fit was that Verelios had limited shots when I'm unlimited. So no, it's not enough of a counter on its own.

Now, could PRs like the Fruit Vendor trick me and generate negative utility for town? Of course. But it's still not enough if, as we're discussing, we just solved the game with the Tracking power (3-players scenario only).


4.3. Any crazy suggestion

But think of the winrate!


4.4. Tracker with a bunch of "No results" is such a convenient claim to make when 80% of the game is out...

Yes. But if I was mafia, I'd be aware of the fat that there's no way I don't get voted out today. So what would be actually convenient? A bold gambit with a red check on someone from last night, because I'd have nothing to lose.

Right now, the only thing I fear is my poor play costing town the game. Apologies.

And, as you can see with my breadcrumbs, I'd need to make quite a few guesses to get all those results right while the game was ongoing.


4.5. (Spectator): "Why didn't you kill Stan three phases ago?!"

You're no fuuuun.


4.6. Why did you lie with your claim last phase?

My power could still be useful for town, and just knowing that I was being suspected would be enough to not eat a NK.

If I either fully-claimed or left breadcrumbs last day I'd be out for sure.

(4-players scenario only) Unless they wanted to push me today and get a laugh at me with a no-kill night.


5. Other notes

First things first, I need to leave an apology for the players who eventually read this. I didn't mean to bully everyone into letting the phases play to their full lenght. That was a super bad call on my part and I'm sorry for doing so.

I'll need to lie in my claim and say that I tracked wee on N7. If Chuggs is out D8, and any combination of wee/Blarg/Stan enter D9;
- If I admit to have tracked Blarg N7, the correct move is to track wee on N8. Two No Results will destroy me, the Ninja Theory is not that strong of a counter for that.
- If I say wee was my target N7, that will make more sense with my push for Blarg on D8 instead of doubting wee too much. And then Blarg would be the claimed target of N8, although wee would be the real one - which would then force me to claim after we know of Blarg's message -.

And, if I somehow manage to miraculously convince someone tomorrow, this will be the perfect GIF;

JxkPoxJ.gif


Wish me good luck!
 
I don't know if Blarg is actually upset or not - never really understand him 100% - but if you are, Blarg, please accept my apologies.

My distanced approach to the day is actually part of the strategy, since town players sometimes just throw themselves into trouble without any help. And it's a nice contrast to your intense attitude!

Just hope there're no hard feelings when it's all over.
 
Thank you, Pedro! Couldn't have done it without amazing teammates and your encouragement - and periods -.
 
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