San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
oh hi i know these feels and it is why I do not play much
I need to finish reading. That is a lot.
Scooby Doo 2: Mafia Unleashed - This time there are costumes!
- Thread starter Aeleus
- Start date
- Status
I need to finish reading. That is a lot.
Captain Skunkbeard
Costume Account (She/Her)
Shit, they’ve shortened the day
Neon Phantom
Costume Account (He/Him)
If you overthink everything then now is the time to share.
Can you share your thoughts on what's helped you inform your Skunkbeard read in more detail?
If you doused them thinking they're your last mafia target what informed that? Surely it's not just that we took opposing positions on Alien, right?
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
Oh what the hell, I didn't even notice the short day.
Neon Phantom
Costume Account (He/Him)
Damn, I didn't even notice that :\
Captain Skunkbeard
Costume Account (She/Her)
Scum didn’t do it lol, it’s scheduled by game size
Captain Skunkbeard
Costume Account (She/Her)
Aeleus probably told us, but really, who reads the red words in a mafia game, only losers.
BooBeard
Costume Account (He/Him)
I did this whole gambit so I wouldn't have to go deep into it and make big reads. I need to love myself a little.
That said, this post is still accurate:
The tunnel looks bad knowing Alien was town, which I knew (or at least, was 99% sure of) but I couldn't say outright yesterday.
BooBeard
Costume Account (He/Him)
Is this really true? I've pored over every word Aeleus has written because this is my first game and I'm trying to learn and I never saw any of this.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
I’m so mad at myself right now because I absolutely see it. I see it, I saw it, I translated it some other way in my head and I’m so mad. FUCK
Captain Skunkbeard
Costume Account (She/Her)
Some thing don’t have to be written down because we know the thing
it might be in the rules opening post but who reads those either.
Captain Skunkbeard
Costume Account (She/Her)
Explain why you lied about Hyde then.
BooBeard
Costume Account (He/Him)
I'm gonna laugh so hard if this is your scum power
Wax Phantom
Costume Account (He/Him)
u wot m8
Captain Skunkbeard
Costume Account (She/Her)
Between confirmed town and admitted non town, i’ll believe the statement from the confirmed town tho.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
Don’t be a bad influence. Read the things.
I really do not know what to think. Well, no, I know one thing. I believe Hyde wasn’t doused. I think Wax misread.
Spec is yelling at us to not trust the neutral. I know that, too. But spec can be wrong.
I really do not know what to think. Well, no, I know one thing. I believe Hyde wasn’t doused. I think Wax misread.
Spec is yelling at us to not trust the neutral. I know that, too. But spec can be wrong.
Neon Phantom
Costume Account (He/Him)
At the risk of stating the obvious, Gnome/Scooby's secondary power was switcher.
I have no fucking clue why he'd have switched Hyde and Frankenstein, but he was one, so it's a possibility.
I have no fucking clue why he'd have switched Hyde and Frankenstein, but he was one, so it's a possibility.
Captain Skunkbeard
Costume Account (She/Her)
So i’ve been assuming mafia’s “2nd” power remaining, assuming arsonist is mafia and there’s 2 left ofc, is roleblock.
which would explain light’s death in a very obvious way.
for boo AND wax to be telling the truth about hyde, it would have to be a redirect, moving light’s protect from probably himself to literally anywhere else and killing him. Plus er N1 was it(?) moving boo’s target randomly without any clue as to roles. It seems unlikely at best.
which would explain light’s death in a very obvious way.
for boo AND wax to be telling the truth about hyde, it would have to be a redirect, moving light’s protect from probably himself to literally anywhere else and killing him. Plus er N1 was it(?) moving boo’s target randomly without any clue as to roles. It seems unlikely at best.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
really? Because it was unclear and now suddenly it’s so clear he won’t go look. What’s the point in lying? What on earth does Boo gain?
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
Possible, but seems unlikely. Hyde is dead either way.
Captain Skunkbeard
Costume Account (She/Her)
Oh right.
Captain Skunkbeard
Costume Account (She/Her)
Boo gains a night of life. The question is what does Wax gain?
Wax Phantom
Costume Account (He/Him)
Nice cyoa bro
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
I think I missed some posts or something. It’s been a long day.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
I don’t think Wax is lying. I think there’s plenty of chance he’s just wrong.
BooBeard
Costume Account (He/Him)
This is something I haven't considered, but then why wouldn't Hyde have claimed doused on night 1? Or when he was a "confirmed" mason? There would be no reason to hide that information.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
I think I’ve gone stupid. Explain to me why it matters about Hyde anyway? The consensus is he’s mafia if he lied about Hyde? But… why?
BooBeard
Costume Account (He/Him)
I need to go back and read Lightning's doctor claims to see if they match this. My ignites go through protection but maybe Lightning blocked the scum kill on my first ignite night and I actually killed Hyde??? I would be shocked. I received no notification that my shit was redirected.
Wax Phantom
Costume Account (He/Him)
Hyde.....wasn't doused they ........ just heard about.......someone being doused
WUT
WUT
Neon Phantom
Costume Account (He/Him)
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
You normally would not know if redirected.
Okay, so it’s either Boo and 1-2 mafia (which would be Skunk and Pazzo, I think).
or Boo and Pazzo
I’m less hot on Neon as mafia here. But I feel like I need to get a piece of paper and chart it out, damn.
Next time can we gambit before cocktail hour?
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
Oh.
thereitis.gif
thereitis.gif
Captain Skunkbeard
Costume Account (She/Her)
Oh ffs
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
Costume Account (He/Him)
Jesus Christ. I rescind my earlier statement that this is someone roleplaying as Sparks. I fucking can’t.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
Anyway, yeah. Wax is not cosplaying. Just seemed like it early game. So, sure, we have a confirmed town, but we need to solve this before it's any kind of absolute endgame and that's right now.
I guess I'm going to go back to looking at vote movement.
I guess I'm going to go back to looking at vote movement.
BooBeard
Costume Account (He/Him)
@Pazzo the Ghost Clown our Suns did it, the evil has been defeated
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
Wait.
Today we have six. Boo, are you telling the truth about your wincons? Because making it to final five is much more common.
Today we have six. Boo, are you telling the truth about your wincons? Because making it to final five is much more common.
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
Costume Account (He/Him)
And PG turned back into a pumpkin, you love to see it.
Okay bit of math:
We’re probably looking at 3-2-1 then when you consider flavor, player count, that we saw a goon, etc.
If we believe the neutral claim and don’t get a save:
Elim Town, Skunk is Mafia the next day becomes 1-1
Elim Mafia, Skunk is Town the next day becomes 1-1-1 or 2-1
Elim Mafia, Skunk is Mafia game is over and we win
Elim Boo the next day is 2-2
Elim Skunk and they’re Mafia the next day is 2-1-1 or 3-1
So basically yes, we have to hit mafia but if Skunk isn’t mafia we might find ourselves in a fucked up neutral kingmaker situation which was really fun when I was the neutral but sounds immensely less fun when not the neutral lol So, uh, fuck?
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
This was Boo's only real reaction to Char's fake claim that I could find.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
Boo, you claimed you were hunting Scooby as a secondary... power? extra? one-shot-in-a-barrel cop check on one person so you'd know someone to douse? But only if your vote was on someone who didn't go out. Right? So d1 you self pres voted. Okay. But D2 you stayed on Ghost Bear, who was such an overwhelming vote. Why? You could have gone to someone else there.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
I started to do a whole post on probabilities and got many words in when I realized it does not matter. None of the numbers matter. We just have to hit mafia. So we have to decide if Boo is mafia or neutral / who mafia is. in hours.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
Right now my gut is that Boo is probably neutral, but I have to say, the idea that we are supposed to let a neutral and his proposed mafia target go into the night for a death pact is something I am maybe not comfortable with considering the fact that, if it's a lie and they're scum together, that's a win. That's the gamble.
Could Boo+Skunk be a team?
vs
find the other mafia if not.
Could Boo+Skunk be a team?
vs
find the other mafia if not.
Neon Phantom
Costume Account (He/Him)
I hate that today is shorter.
I'll still be trying to do stuff while on the bus but phone mafia is not the most pleasant experience.
I'm on the way to toddlersit while my sister works today and obviously I won't be able to look at mafia while I'm there because, well, trying to keep track of a toddler.
I will be back though.
I'll still be trying to do stuff while on the bus but phone mafia is not the most pleasant experience.
I'm on the way to toddlersit while my sister works today and obviously I won't be able to look at mafia while I'm there because, well, trying to keep track of a toddler.
I will be back though.
Captain Skunkbeard
Costume Account (She/Her)
I have got my busiest work day in ages going on.
You’ve left out the dousing. If the neutral ignites town is probably fucked already.
BooBeard
Costume Account (He/Him)
Yeah I'm telling the truth about my wincon. Honestly I think they're pretty rough as wincons, even just killing 3 people regardless of alignment was hard, let alone guessing mafia without them getting voted out during the day phase.
I stayed on Ghost Bear because I thought it would look bad to shuffle my vote around. I also thought Ghost Bear could actually be scum.
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
Costume Account (He/Him)
Nah I included the assumption that he would ignite tonight in the numbers. Sorry, I had drank a little and maybe could’ve made that more clear/formatted that whole post better lol
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
What happened with three scum in a row is not normal lol
But what I'm having trouble understanding is... you should not want scum voted out d2. Every mafia voted out is a mafia you can't ignite. I'm gonna go back and look at your posts that day.
BooBeard
Costume Account (He/Him)
Well I figured if we vote out scum in the Day phase I would look more town, and if I'm still alive the game won't end, meaning I could end up fulfilling my second wincon instead. I don't think I was ever the top arsonist candidate, only a top scum candidate, so I was right on that assumption.
Captain Skunkbeard
Costume Account (She/Her)
since seeing Light’s role card instead of trying to work out balance from his exaggerations it no longer makes so much sense that the arsonist isn’t neutral.
that already leaves town with a neutral-as-kingmaker situation no matter what at this point.
The only question is whether there were 4 or 5 mafia, it’s probably 5, not just from flavor, from numbers. 5/26 is too far under 20% imo.
during the game I haven’t felt neon and pazzo were scummates, which leaves out that team as a possibility. So whichever of them is scum must be partnered with san, who has been scummy enough in her responses to me that I can believe she’s mafia; she strongly town read me until I didn’t support her towniness and then desperately jumped into scum reading me. Her town meta wouldn’t OMGUS a potential teammate, she’d try to work with them through their paranoia etc.
vote: sans
that already leaves town with a neutral-as-kingmaker situation no matter what at this point.
The only question is whether there were 4 or 5 mafia, it’s probably 5, not just from flavor, from numbers. 5/26 is too far under 20% imo.
during the game I haven’t felt neon and pazzo were scummates, which leaves out that team as a possibility. So whichever of them is scum must be partnered with san, who has been scummy enough in her responses to me that I can believe she’s mafia; she strongly town read me until I didn’t support her towniness and then desperately jumped into scum reading me. Her town meta wouldn’t OMGUS a potential teammate, she’d try to work with them through their paranoia etc.
vote: sans
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
Costume Account (He/Him)
Can you explain your reasoning on why you feel neon and I aren't scummates?
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
I strongly townread you until you stopped trying to solve and adamantly refused to do anything until the game reached this point, which happens to coincide with a plea to let you and Boo live just one more day, which also conveniently leads to victory if you are both mafia.
And you were still arguing that the arsonist could be mafia literal hours ago, predicated on you pushing the idea that Boo was lying for ??reasons?? that didn't make any sense while completely ignoring that Wax is Wax and of course would get stuff wrong.
IF you are mafia with Boo:
Pushing Boo as mafia and then not voting there - yes, fine strategy, leads possibly to you both surviving
Pushing Boo as mafia hedges the bets because if we flip him and he's mafia, don't you look good - fine strategy, leads to at least you surviving, probably for good
If Boo is neutral and you are mafia:
pushing ME means mafia is safe and you know you won't get NKed so you just have to see if Wax can protect you tonight, as you've directly asked, which leaves no other NK target safe - it's a gamble but the safest path if you are doused mafia. This is where I'm investigating.
If Boo is neutral and you are mafia, further, spending all this time pushing the idea of a mafia arsonist right up until the point that it could hurt you is really great and viable for you to sit and do nothing, which is in fact what you did for a good chunk.
I'm backreading Boo and I just don't think his actions add up with what he's claimed. The "lie" thing was dumb - you don't lie and put a spotlight on it so someone can "catch" you in a further dumb way.
IF you are town, you potentially just threw the game because paranoia, essentially. Which is not like you. You are too logical.
And you were still arguing that the arsonist could be mafia literal hours ago, predicated on you pushing the idea that Boo was lying for ??reasons?? that didn't make any sense while completely ignoring that Wax is Wax and of course would get stuff wrong.
These are not posts from someone who saw Lightning's flip and realized then that Boo had to be neutral. You were pushing this until you couldn't feasibly push it any more because it just looks bad for you.
IF you are mafia with Boo:
Pushing Boo as mafia and then not voting there - yes, fine strategy, leads possibly to you both surviving
Pushing Boo as mafia hedges the bets because if we flip him and he's mafia, don't you look good - fine strategy, leads to at least you surviving, probably for good
If Boo is neutral and you are mafia:
pushing ME means mafia is safe and you know you won't get NKed so you just have to see if Wax can protect you tonight, as you've directly asked, which leaves no other NK target safe - it's a gamble but the safest path if you are doused mafia. This is where I'm investigating.
If Boo is neutral and you are mafia, further, spending all this time pushing the idea of a mafia arsonist right up until the point that it could hurt you is really great and viable for you to sit and do nothing, which is in fact what you did for a good chunk.
I'm backreading Boo and I just don't think his actions add up with what he's claimed. The "lie" thing was dumb - you don't lie and put a spotlight on it so someone can "catch" you in a further dumb way.
IF you are town, you potentially just threw the game because paranoia, essentially. Which is not like you. You are too logical.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
I have a meeting in ~20 minutes and I'll be back after. I am still backreading Boo and trying to see where his actions do and do not align with his claim.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
and FURTHERMORE, voting now does not seem like the action of someone who hopes to see the day extended.
Neon Phantom
Costume Account (He/Him)
People are in here throwing votes down already.
God, why :/
God, why :/
Neon Phantom
Costume Account (He/Him)
I think Boo as arsonist makes sense, and not just because I called it yesterday :p
They could be gambiting in more than one sense, yes, but nobody has counterclaimed.
Counterclaiming arsonist would be kinda fucked up, but considering where we stand if there was ever a day for it this is probably it.
Nobody else has claimed doused either.
Could TheBeards be a team?
Yeah they could, but the most likely option?
I'm struggling there.
Boo was on Skunkbeard for inactivity in early game and while that could be nai or busing or both there was enough busing going on with that team already at that point.
I lean towards thinking pushing at Skunkbeard was more opportunistic neutral than busing scum and I think I even said something like that when he shifted to not wanting to pursue after she got a small flurry of town reads upon substitution.
Not wanting to noticeably rock that boat once general opinion shifted fits with the riding of others coat tails he was doing with his other reads and interactions.
Neon Phantom
Costume Account (He/Him)
Or she just genuinely believes you're mafia.
She hasn't omgus-ed me because of my paranoia about her, she's just sorta shrugged at it.
Captain Skunkbeard
Costume Account (She/Her)
I pushed it until Wax retracted his incorrectness.
Combined with the flip it made no sense anymore. I’m attempting to solve while my teammates give me FUD to put in. Of course my results are gonna be weird, GIGO.
As to why i don’t see Pazzo and Neon as mates, i don’t even remember. I haven’t had time to reread anything and I won’t Have time. However i believe i know who Pazzo is, and he’s playing according to his town meta, which would make him my last teammate, so although i don’t know who neon is, that leaves neon numbers wise as also scum.
BooBeard
Costume Account (He/Him)
I did my part asking Aeleus to extend the day. It's Canada Day and I'm off work early so I kinda want to just chill.
I'll vote day end to break a tie if needed, but I won't vote for Wax or myself. Voting for Skunkbeard is functionally equivalent to a no-vote (assuming 2 mafia) because I will ignite Skunkbeard this evening regardless, so I don't think I will do that either.
I'll vote day end to break a tie if needed, but I won't vote for Wax or myself. Voting for Skunkbeard is functionally equivalent to a no-vote (assuming 2 mafia) because I will ignite Skunkbeard this evening regardless, so I don't think I will do that either.
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
Costume Account (He/Him)
I'm struggling here because our options kind of suck. Like a lot. This is basically the worst timeline if Boo is in fact neutral, because that leaves possible scum as all the options that were more my 'paranoia' zone ones. The D1 votes would just be weird flukey shit. Literally everyone left that could be mafia has faced almost no real pressure all game, so there's very little wagonomics to look at for help, and I frankly don't have the time to do three full ISOs before day end while working and then having to jet after work to run errands to places that aren't open late so I can't even delay it. I need to just pluck out which of the three is most likely town and then go with either of the other options and hope. Without doing any investigation and relying purely on the headspace you all hold my immediate thoughts are:
Sans - Very tough player to read, I've been in game ends with her before and I basically always hate it. The pivot to Woodsman still stands out - she had perfectly setup herself to go for Kook. Why pivot to a teammate immediately the next day? It's not like it was a matter of seeing that others were pushing it first - she literally started the day out gunning for him. It would be a dedicated bus if so, and right after losing two teammates back to back. Not impossible though. Looking at the votes that day there HAS to be a bus unless mafia is exactly Boo and Skunk. I can't shake suspicion here though, and I do think some of my original points made back when I pushed for her elim whatever day phase that was hold up.
Neon - I would say this player has played the most inoffensive game, and a lot of that is why I really had them pegged as arsonist. Now the slots are flipped, the person I most thought was mafia is a neutral instead and this could be vice versa as well. Neon also is on the Woodsman vote but joins in literally at the last minute, and is also a late CCG voter (while never voting Gnome). Does it mean anything though? I believe Neon is on the record stating they just tend to vote late. That's not universally true this game, but it does seem to happen more often than not. The assuredness on Alien is a point that sticks out, as the only other person to really express that has been Boo which actually, I need to follow up on. I just don't...personally feel super strong about Neon as mafia. I struggle to think of much that stood out as seeming like Neon was in conjunction with anyone. They've just not made any splashes.
Skunk - Honestly has been riding off of their former occupant's meta in my mind more than anything. I think nuSkunk started out strong, but since then it primarily feels like they've been very rigid and inflexible in their reads. They beat the Alien drum really hard, and with no wavering. A town Alien flip was supposed to trigger a complete reimagination of reads, but instead it just feels like they're throwing out conclusions without really showing any of the progression. Was the town read of the former occupant dropping just wrong? It's a player I know fairly well so I know they drop out of games somewhat often, but it's not like they exclusively only drop out as one alignment.
I feel the worst about Skunk here, but plucking out a teammate is hard. If Sans, why go for the bus today? It's a big swing because if that's where the vote falls, Skunk just gets blown up at night and mafia lose, finito. Could it actually just be Skunk and Boo? Maybe. I have no doubt Boo is arsonist at this point with the Wax clarification. In that event mafia would absolutely want Boo to live, because he would be able to ignite and probably perform the NK both as the last scum left alive. Wax should be my most trusted voice, but I can't even say I trust him to vote in general. Boo is never going to go for their doused or "doused" target, either way. I think I'm just left...with Neon, I guess, as the person I trust most.
@Neon Phantom What are you thinking? If the day ended in two minutes I probably place a vote on Skunk as a person I could see being mafia with either of the other possible teammates, and because it is the best chance at avoiding a possible kingmaker scenario if it is 3-2-1. If it's 4-2 it's moot, but I just don't know. I'm going to try and ISO Skunk at least before day end.
@BooBeard I just thought back to you saying how you KNEW Alien was town but just couldn't say that because it behooved you to see him gone. How? How did you KNOW he was town? You could know you weren't teammates with him, but as a neutral arsonist that wouldn't tell you shit about anyone else's alignment. What made you so confident he was going to flip town instead of mafia?
Sans - Very tough player to read, I've been in game ends with her before and I basically always hate it. The pivot to Woodsman still stands out - she had perfectly setup herself to go for Kook. Why pivot to a teammate immediately the next day? It's not like it was a matter of seeing that others were pushing it first - she literally started the day out gunning for him. It would be a dedicated bus if so, and right after losing two teammates back to back. Not impossible though. Looking at the votes that day there HAS to be a bus unless mafia is exactly Boo and Skunk. I can't shake suspicion here though, and I do think some of my original points made back when I pushed for her elim whatever day phase that was hold up.
Neon - I would say this player has played the most inoffensive game, and a lot of that is why I really had them pegged as arsonist. Now the slots are flipped, the person I most thought was mafia is a neutral instead and this could be vice versa as well. Neon also is on the Woodsman vote but joins in literally at the last minute, and is also a late CCG voter (while never voting Gnome). Does it mean anything though? I believe Neon is on the record stating they just tend to vote late. That's not universally true this game, but it does seem to happen more often than not. The assuredness on Alien is a point that sticks out, as the only other person to really express that has been Boo which actually, I need to follow up on. I just don't...personally feel super strong about Neon as mafia. I struggle to think of much that stood out as seeming like Neon was in conjunction with anyone. They've just not made any splashes.
Skunk - Honestly has been riding off of their former occupant's meta in my mind more than anything. I think nuSkunk started out strong, but since then it primarily feels like they've been very rigid and inflexible in their reads. They beat the Alien drum really hard, and with no wavering. A town Alien flip was supposed to trigger a complete reimagination of reads, but instead it just feels like they're throwing out conclusions without really showing any of the progression. Was the town read of the former occupant dropping just wrong? It's a player I know fairly well so I know they drop out of games somewhat often, but it's not like they exclusively only drop out as one alignment.
I feel the worst about Skunk here, but plucking out a teammate is hard. If Sans, why go for the bus today? It's a big swing because if that's where the vote falls, Skunk just gets blown up at night and mafia lose, finito. Could it actually just be Skunk and Boo? Maybe. I have no doubt Boo is arsonist at this point with the Wax clarification. In that event mafia would absolutely want Boo to live, because he would be able to ignite and probably perform the NK both as the last scum left alive. Wax should be my most trusted voice, but I can't even say I trust him to vote in general. Boo is never going to go for their doused or "doused" target, either way. I think I'm just left...with Neon, I guess, as the person I trust most.
@Neon Phantom What are you thinking? If the day ended in two minutes I probably place a vote on Skunk as a person I could see being mafia with either of the other possible teammates, and because it is the best chance at avoiding a possible kingmaker scenario if it is 3-2-1. If it's 4-2 it's moot, but I just don't know. I'm going to try and ISO Skunk at least before day end.
@BooBeard I just thought back to you saying how you KNEW Alien was town but just couldn't say that because it behooved you to see him gone. How? How did you KNOW he was town? You could know you weren't teammates with him, but as a neutral arsonist that wouldn't tell you shit about anyone else's alignment. What made you so confident he was going to flip town instead of mafia?
Neon Phantom
Costume Account (He/Him)
Well as you asked, if the day was going to end in two minutes I would vote you.
Well.
I would vote you if it were only up to me.
It isn't though, is it. For majority we need either town+boo consensus or a town fuckup that scum jumps on, so that's not exactly great. Requires assuming Wax will be here and play ball too.
Gambling on just managing to get a lead on a split vote in misvote and lose sounds horrible.
BooBeard
Costume Account (He/Him)
Alien is my friend so I could tell from their posts they were genuinely fed up, frustrated and tired of being anxious. I've never played Mafia with them before so I could never be 100% certain (which I never claimed to be), but I would've been completely blindsided if that was a scum strategy on their part. I would've been willing to bet my game on the fact they were town.
Neon Phantom
Costume Account (He/Him)
At this moment I really do think we hit scum with Pazzo.
I guess I have a couple of hours if I'm lucky to try and work out if I can explain why.
If you try and follow that by going all "so who is the last member with him? " on me though then fuck that, I can't be as definitive, I am painfully aware of how close this is likely to be and how unlikely it is to manage to rally it together.
To try and swing this so it gets the needed votes I probably need to convince Sans that I think it's Skunkbeard or Skunkbeard that I think it's Sans, and that is one hell of a fence to broach.
... especially when Skunk is already voting Sans and would expect someone agreeing with her to just vote there, and in all honesty I'm not sure that's where I want to be.
And if I'm trying to convince Sans I think it's Skunkbeard that also means that as I believe Boo I think Skunkbeard is going to die anyway, so debating Skunk feels like a waste when we can just get the other one.
I guess I have a couple of hours if I'm lucky to try and work out if I can explain why.
If you try and follow that by going all "so who is the last member with him? " on me though then fuck that, I can't be as definitive, I am painfully aware of how close this is likely to be and how unlikely it is to manage to rally it together.
To try and swing this so it gets the needed votes I probably need to convince Sans that I think it's Skunkbeard or Skunkbeard that I think it's Sans, and that is one hell of a fence to broach.
... especially when Skunk is already voting Sans and would expect someone agreeing with her to just vote there, and in all honesty I'm not sure that's where I want to be.
And if I'm trying to convince Sans I think it's Skunkbeard that also means that as I believe Boo I think Skunkbeard is going to die anyway, so debating Skunk feels like a waste when we can just get the other one.
Neon Phantom
Costume Account (He/Him)
Please allow me to present some lightly biased math in favour of voting Pazzo regardless of which Pazzo/Other combo you would rather believe in.
(although it does assume Boo is telling the truth about his wincon).
Right now we're 3 town, 2 scum, 1 neutral.
If scum is pazzo/skunk, skunk is doused.
Vote out Pazzo.
N8 starts 3t,1s,1n.
>Skunk kills town, Boo ignites and leaves.
D9 starts 2t, we win, boo wins.
>Skunk kills Boo, Boo ignites and leaves. Dunno if he dies or leaves first but whatever.
D9 starts 3t, we win.
If scum is pazzo/sans (or fine, me), skunk is doused.
Vote out Pazzo.
N8 starts 3t,1s,1n.
>Scum kills town, Boo ignites town, Boo fails so doesn't leave.
D9 starts 1v1v1? Boo gets to be Kingmaker.
>Scum kills Boo, Boo ignites town.
D9 starts 2t,1s. Wax decides the game.
Gambles either way, but still better odds than the guaranteed loss that is voting out Boo if he's the arsonist.
(although it does assume Boo is telling the truth about his wincon).
Right now we're 3 town, 2 scum, 1 neutral.
If scum is pazzo/skunk, skunk is doused.
Vote out Pazzo.
N8 starts 3t,1s,1n.
>Skunk kills town, Boo ignites and leaves.
D9 starts 2t, we win, boo wins.
>Skunk kills Boo, Boo ignites and leaves. Dunno if he dies or leaves first but whatever.
D9 starts 3t, we win.
If scum is pazzo/sans (or fine, me), skunk is doused.
Vote out Pazzo.
N8 starts 3t,1s,1n.
>Scum kills town, Boo ignites town, Boo fails so doesn't leave.
D9 starts 1v1v1? Boo gets to be Kingmaker.
>Scum kills Boo, Boo ignites town.
D9 starts 2t,1s. Wax decides the game.
Gambles either way, but still better odds than the guaranteed loss that is voting out Boo if he's the arsonist.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
I just got some news that COMPLETELY changes my time today (a two-volume book just dropped today that impacts the chapter I'm working on) so I would like to humbly request that someone redo the math and see if we can just vote Boo out if neutral/mafia. I'll be back shortly but I have to go get this book and outline a quick schedule and update to my workflow.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
oh there were posts
I'll catch up soon
I'll catch up soon
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
Costume Account (He/Him)
God we are so all over the place. We're fucked lol
Neon Phantom
Costume Account (He/Him)
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
Costume Account (He/Him)
A more accurate statement is this is math for voting out anyone that is mafia, the key issue being I'm not. It's basically just the math I did last night.
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
Costume Account (He/Him)
Fitting both for the current state of the game, and the fact that so many of us have literally died in flames.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
can we just petition A to let us all win somehow
has anyone tried that
anyway - back in like 30 and then I think I can be here the rest of the day
I am very tempted by this Pazzo theory. I am also finding it very hard to look past Skunkbeard. That early vote is almost always scum. But I'll do my best.
has anyone tried that
anyway - back in like 30 and then I think I can be here the rest of the day
I am very tempted by this Pazzo theory. I am also finding it very hard to look past Skunkbeard. That early vote is almost always scum. But I'll do my best.
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
Costume Account (He/Him)
And I just got pulled into a meeting - I'll try and be back in about an hour and change
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
Okay, I'm back. I think I'll look at partner scenarios?
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
Wait, what happens if we sleep? If we don't vote?
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
No, that still leaves us fucked. Pretty much every option is fucked UNLESS we hit. Everything just comes back to that.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
Well, wait. If Skunk IS mafia and we sleep, that removes her and Boo, if he's telling the truth. Which leaves tomorrow with just finding the partner. But it's the same result as just voting Skunk now. But it does result in one less kill?
-Skunk
-Boo IF S =mafia
-NK (town)
=2t + 1 mafia for an f3
(3t + 1 mafia if there's a save, magically)
This is only bad if Skunk is town, and I think she's not. And it's one kill fewer than taking a risk, but leaves us with more information in finding the partner in the f3.
(Unless I borked the math, which is possible)
That is contingent on us hitting, still - it's just not technically us hitting. It's banking on Boo having hit.
-Skunk
-Boo IF S =mafia
-NK (town)
=2t + 1 mafia for an f3
(3t + 1 mafia if there's a save, magically)
This is only bad if Skunk is town, and I think she's not. And it's one kill fewer than taking a risk, but leaves us with more information in finding the partner in the f3.
(Unless I borked the math, which is possible)
That is contingent on us hitting, still - it's just not technically us hitting. It's banking on Boo having hit.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
So maybe this vs voting Pazzo are the choices. Pazzo is the only real option to be Skunk's partner unless Boo is just mafia. So the game right now depends on us choosing which of those options is most likely. But if we don't choose and just sleep, we find OUT if Boo was lying or not/if Boo is just mafia. If he's neutral, he exists, and we just vote Pazzo. If he's mafia, he's still here after Skunk flips, and we vote Boo.
Alternately, we just vote Pazzo and if he's not the partner, we lose.
If we vote Skunkbeard, we stop the ignition and the neutral win but we lose if Skunkbeard is town.
If you'd told me two days ago I'd be hanging the game on whether or not there's a mafia arsonist. I'd have laughed. :/ But I think maybe the options are not as bad as we thought. There's hella risk no matter what because we got here fractured, but there's possibilities here.
Alternately, we just vote Pazzo and if he's not the partner, we lose.
If we vote Skunkbeard, we stop the ignition and the neutral win but we lose if Skunkbeard is town.
If you'd told me two days ago I'd be hanging the game on whether or not there's a mafia arsonist. I'd have laughed. :/ But I think maybe the options are not as bad as we thought. There's hella risk no matter what because we got here fractured, but there's possibilities here.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
That's why I'm putting it out there. I'm confident on Skunk, and have gotten more confident throughout the day. But I think I'm the one there who's most confident. I just don't think you push that whole "Boo lied!" there in good faith. I don't think you vote early and shrug in good faith.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
And if you've come this far and it also helps us win, I don't mind giving you the win, even if spec is probably yelling about it. Past-life triple-crosser Neon shouldn't, either. :P And if it turns out you're just actually mafia, then we kill you ignobly tomorrow and you get a high five on the way to death for giving it a good try.
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
Costume Account (He/Him)
I guess this avoids the possibility of going into tomorrow at 2-1-1 and Boo if neutral spite votes with whoever the last mafia is to force a no vote which I had not considered until just now.
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
Costume Account (He/Him)
Wait, THAT'S who Neon is? Wow, didn't even recognize my beautiful Ocelot in action.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
you made it creepy
Neon Phantom
Costume Account (He/Him)
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
Costume Account (He/Him)
The beautiful was in regards to the play, not appearance. Good lord.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
It was more the ownership you weirdo
okay, jokes aside, we are in the garbage and the walls are closing in.
okay, jokes aside, we are in the garbage and the walls are closing in.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
i hate endgame so much.
San Franpsycho
Costume Account (She/Her)
I don't want to vote yet until others have weighed in, because 2 on anything puts it in turbo range
- Status