Okay fuck it.
I suspect Hawthorn.
And maybe Maol.
I am falling out of the suspicion towards Natiko I started to feel yesterday during the whole claim thing. I don't know if I have time to paste my reasonings before the threads lock.
Going to try.
Sorry it's a horrible mess because of the rushing.
Hawthorn votes.
1 - No kill
2 - SkyOdin, largely because she didn't like his push on TWE.
3 - HP -> Natiko (Started saying she wanted Zeke, went for Natiko after Maol started it)
Natiko votes.
1 -Zeke
2- Zeke
3- Salva
Salva votes.
1- Nothing.
2- Odin
3- Broken Zeke vote -> Real Zeke vote -> Natiko
TWE.
1- Nothing
2- Odin
3- Me
Maol.
1-Zipped
2-Jman->Odin
3-Natiko
_____
Let's not vote anyone out. Consider that with the current level of posting it's not likely we'll have anything to go on at the end of the day, we'll just be voting out randomly. We probably have a better chance of killing two town players than we do of hitting mafia. We know that many of the servants have powers, so we have a high chance of voting out a town power role. We would see what the mafia do overnight, gain more information from possible information-gathering roles over night, from interactions over the first two days, and from the night kill. IMO we should try it.
Looking back at this.
First the bold, which is what stood out to me when I read it the first time.
I queried it and Hawthorn responded with
I said probably, since it's not role madness, but I think it's likely that many of the servants have powers, judging from the game description that the mods put out.
She never said probably about powers, she said probably about kills.
I still fundamentally feel not voting was the better plan because we were likely to vote out town, but if there were more mixed pairs I guess it's also likely we were likely to hit half a mixed pair and scum weren't looking forward to the idea of trying to talk people out of it based on D1 nothingness.
In light of us having (probably) had our first mixed pair revealed (except for the failure to die) I can see other reasons why mafia would advocate for it too.
The more mixed pairs there are, the narrower the pool of pure town pairs to hit come night phase.
The more mixed pairs there are, the more skills they potentially have access to as well. They can share scum skills amongst themselves but they still needed the night phase to have a chance at seeing what their own paired partners could do.
Scum masters have redirects they can use to mislead their town servants into filling the blanks.
Scum servants to town masters might get redirected.
Pure scum pairings probably don't have the redirect because it would be unnecessary.
So we've had assumptions made about servants.
After N1 we have some about masters.
Sorian had a redirect power, so if he is town (and this narrative is true) Fran could be worried that Jman has something like that, making it not worthwhile to keep the doctor around. But I still don't understand why Fran claimed to Jman in the first place, according to this theoretical narriave.
Between me and my lover, the master claims the exact seals that sorian carried.
dunno if this means anything but it makes a potential scum master and town servant more likely Than if the redirect seal is not a default option.
I also have the exact same seals as Sorian
I agree that it's starting to seem like the seals Sorian had are the standard seals for masters to have.
Not quite sure how to read Wee's comment about how likely the mixed pair is, considering sorian/lp were both town and still had the redirect, but I choose to read it as her perhaps not trusting her own partner.
Hawthorn agrees that it's starting to look like those seals are standard, but when Salva is under investigation reveals she has different ones.
In my partnership, the one of us who is the master has only one command seal and also has an additional power. I think that having fewer command seals also balances the additional power. So, I believe that part of Salva's explanation.
Throughout the day she pushed back against the Salva vote and didn't vote there in the end.
The initial claim to have been roleblocked did not make sense to me. We knew it wasn't the town roleblocker, and mafia would know if they roleblocked Salva or not, so they would not have been fooled by that claim. However, I can buy that Salva didn't realize that until Ephi pointed out the flavor message.
Then the set of fishing posts based on Salva's claim.
It would help if someone claimed that they visited Natiko. It wouldnt' give much away since this is a role madness game, they wouldn't have to say what they visited him for.
Does give something away. If scum didn’t national then they can assume the person who visited nat has an investigation/info role or is the master.
Not liking that suggestion from you.
That's a good point I didn't think of about scum going after the person who visited Natiko. They should use their judgment.
If mafia targeted you, it was probably an investigative role, since they almost certainly roleblocked Fran if they have one & we know that the kill went through.
It behoves mafia to find out what other people are out there targetting each other.
She seems certain the day is set up to be Salva vs Zeke when actually the only vote on Zeke for most of the day was Salva's broken one.
It looks like it's really being set up to be Zeke vs. Salva today and I'm going back and forth on what I think. As of right now if I had to pick one I would lean towards voting Zeke, but I'm not sure and I want to see how the day develops.
And crowdsourced reads on me from HP
Why did you suspect Ephidel originally? I understand that you've changed your mind, but I'm still interested to hear your thoughts. In general, IMO, it's good to be able to hear people's thoughts, even if they end up being wrong.
I understand that you thought the suspicion on Zeke wasn't justified. But you put almost all players in the "no view" category. Why was Zeke in "town" instead of "no view"?
Thank you for responding to my post, I appreciate it.
I'm still not following your reasoning.
You've explained multiple times why you weren't suspicious of Zeke. I understand that you did not find him suspicious. But I do not understand why you thought he was more town-like than most players were. In your reads post, you had one scum suspect (Salva), a very few players as town reads (including Zeke), and all the other players grouped together under "no read."
Why was Zeke in "town" instead of in "no read"? I'm not asking why he was not in "suspected mafia". I'm asking why he was a town read rather than no read.
It's a similar situation of Ephidel. Why would other players' behavior make you suspicious of Ephi rather than suspicious of those players?
___
What does mafia get out of Salva's THING.
I'm not surprised by Fran voting me, I make an easy early vote. [...]
Hmm I love the opportunity to No Lynch but I'm not sure this is the game to do it, this is a bastard game so I'm actually expecting pairs to be alignment mixed and if there are town servants that die with scum that means we can't waste votes.
Early admission of what we now know to be his own circumstance.
Excuses Fran's vote for him.
voting out town is just more likely always because there are more town players than scum players.
Speaking of the claim master thing, it is discouraged by the fact that scum would be interested on taking down the master and the servant at the same time.
I do think it's interesting the way jman claimed because it feels surprisingly... careful for a wild jman play. He mentions that he wants scum to wifom his claim, but I was thinking about it and wouldn't it be a jman thing to do to gambit that as a scum member to gain townie points early? Jman strikes me as the type of player who goes for outrageous things just to try to be useful, and in this case, may want to seem like he is useful to town.
It would be suspect but if you are a servant for a scum master maybe you want all eyes on you so even if you die you buy more time for your master.
Hmm, but also I'm thinking a bit about the lore everyone has been sharing here that servants are more powerful than masters and maybe scum would rather keep their whole teams than sacrifice a servant for the greater scum good.
I can already see the last minute switch from no kill to someone voting no kill.
Hmm, would scum be so bold to just park the vote there? I kinda liked launchs vote on sky but feels bad to vote a newbie, and I want to vote jman but I don't want to see him self-implode as usual.
I kinda like the case on Sorian, I don't see Sorian caring at all about a modkill and it is a weird thing to keep expressing.
For the first point, this almost went into motion with Zipped. He wrote this in post 470, before it happened.
For the second they went for Sky d2.
Maol was near the start of both of them. Fran started Zipped.
Anyway, the whole no kill crowd worries me, other than hawthorn I saw mostly an opportunity to waste a day. I'll be wiilling too try zeke or zip again, but I also don't feel good aboout any on that nokill vote.
Shades a bunch of players but excuses Hawthorn. No mention of the no voters, just the no killers.
I don't think Fran is scum, this is too silly for a gambit.
man what are the odds jman and fran are teammates, fran is very explosive and jman is volatile too
I really wasn't looking at Fran, but I'm noting this because Salva seems to get a kick out of stating things that actually happen.
I like how the more rules are added the better we get at using them to our advantage.
:poisonsip:
Also if you think I'm town because I'm not reading the thread that's really dumb, lol. Scum doesn't need to coordinate with scum to be scummy, that's not a towntell.
Just... mentioning that getting a kick out of things thing again.
So far I feel great about hawthorn and her analisys on the sky vs edge situation.
Natiko reads a bit opportunistic to me.
Sky seems to be throwing people off constantly and reads like deflecting
Worthy seems town-ish to me? He keeps building on ideas and keeps getting piled on.
Launch seems really eager to defend me even when I'm not at risk of getting voted out yet
Weemad seems cautious to me in a weird way, but seems town.
Oh jman you really need to calm down.
Some reads.
Positive on Hawthorn, TWE, Wee. Actually uses the word town for TWE and Wee. Doesn't actually use the word scum for anyone.
Launch's eagerness to defend him was one post or so, but we know they were actually linked, so he lampshaded it.
I'm a 2 shot motion detector, I targeted fran night 1 and got no result and was refunded. Natiko moved night 2.
Why do you defend Nat? I detected motion when targeting nat.
Right.
So.
What do scum gain out of a botched together claim. I suspected he actually would be a motion detector, but he wasn't.
I assume he had to go with that because of whatever general area of abilities he claimed to his partner, as was suggested.
Why would scum who knows they're on the verge of being caught out go on Natiko (Natiko who Fran on D2 said they tried to protect on N1).
Unfortunately, two answers.
Yesterday I was in a particularly suspicious mindset, and I was leaning on them knowing the claim was halfarsed, and it helping to clear Nat of suspicion when it backfired as a failed attempt by scum to get him killed.
Today, I'm not so sure.
So let's instead believe they really thought they might get away with it. They hope the claim will be bought, claiming he moved while he insists he doesn't would look suspicious, start a wagon.
Hawthorn asks people to come forward and clear him, then goes 'oops' after Zeke points out that implicates them.
Hawthorn also continues to not consider Salva suspicious all day.
Not sure if I mentioned this on my last post before day end but Natiko has read oportunistic to me, I was interested in seeing if he has a PR since I always have a hard time getting a read on him.
Motion detecting him wouldn't have told him whether he had a PR or not but
the role he actually had might have.
You could be still be lying about not moving =/. But then I don't see why lie about it and contradicting me directly, so I'll give you a pass for now. It does leave a bad taste in my mouth.
Salva seems to like skirting the truth. If he actually got a "Nat is Not Vanilla" result back he might have been banking on the fact Nat actually
did move and might admit what he did to "save" himself?
All the back and forth with Zeke that follows over his claim continues to leave me feeling good about Zeke.
There's the offchance Zeke is bussing a teammate he thinks has been a shortsighted idiot, but I don't really want to be there. I think it's genuine, partly because I also think his decision to be more active in thread was motivated by his ability to have to convince others to vote in his place.
I claimed because I had the idea that I got Natiko moving, but reviewing what the motion detector I got actually does, I realized I had the wrong idea. I'm still not sure Natiko is not lying, but at least it gives him some wiggle room...
This can actually be true. He claimed because he thought he could get away with it.
Natiko's approach this game has been giving me major greed island vibes, when we were partners. Natiko has a way of presenting ideas as if they just ocurred to him, agreeing with others while putting them in the direction he seems to want. This is not really alignment indicative but the fact of the matter is I saw movement on Natiko spot. Why has no one come forward saying they visited him?
And then there is Zeke, the usual shitposting zeke is now really engaged with me over my claim because he saw me as a lifesaver. Where is that detailed analysis on all players, zeke?
The other reason is that I feel my partner is not telling me the truth, so I've been suspicious that player is either scum or neutral. I am the master but I can't boost, all I can do is redirect. This on top of my own power feels like either a balance on our roles or a seed to plant doubt on our team. As I see it taking me down might not be thaaat bad of a thing, since I already wasted my shots, my flip confirms there was movement on Natiko and my servant I'm not convinced is actually town.
I have no idea what happened in Greed Island and I've run out of time to go check.
Again, the bolded statements are entirely capable of being true.
With that, I'm off, as I said voting me is not a waste since you are also taking down someone I'm not sure is town, even if I do feel like I failed my partner a bit (And the guilt will probably consume me if I turn out to be wrong about my suspicious since that person has been so nice to me, but that's just part of the game lol, sometiimes you are right sometimes you are wrong)
Accepts that if he loses, he still gets rid of town.
I can redirect my servant only.
Ah I see what you mean now, yeah I can use my first ability to detect motion on any player.
Both true.
Zeke has to be scum, he is been trying to hard to pin me down in order to save himself, I've never seen zeke try this hard.
You know that is not true I came forward with the info I had hoping I got Natiko moving, I also have nothing to show other than that and I've been trying to get scums attention, and by the way you have been latching onto me even now that I gave you all the info there is you still think it's scummy of me. You are deep in the tunnel because it's the only way to save yourself, you don't really believe I'm scum, you know I'm town and you just want to survive one more day so you and your scummy buddies can get one more day to win, and now that you know I'm a master then it makes more sense to get rid of me and take two people down for the price of one.
(That was to Zeke. It also comes after him calling Zeke scum explicitly but I really do want to town read Zeke. Call it wishful thinking).
Again, Zeke... wasn't really actually in any danger during the days votes.
Salva and Hawthorn both put forth that he was. Maybe they wanted him to be.
The confusion around the way my motion detector works was accidental, it didn't occured to me that movement could be someone else visiting Natiko, even if I doubt that's the case otherwise someone may have come forward already.
The confusion around my roleblock was [... blah blah blah I don't even want to get into this I'm snipping it out]
I have not done shit to scum hunt but I really I have not had the time, my partner was gracious enough to provide several reads and feelings and I kind of went along with them. When I saw movement on Fran's side I thought that it was possible that both were telling the truth in their own way, since I did saw movement, but I still had a shot left and just didn't want to attract attention to myself, and Fran's frustration convinced me that just flipping jman was the right call. So today I realized that pretty much confirming what everyone knows was too obvious and useless, so might as well appear as more of a threat to scum if I have one more shot, since I believe Fran's doctor claim and I believe scum still decided to leave Fran alone last night, might as well seem like a good distraction.
Overall I feel like maybe Salva tends enough towards the truth that they really thought they could get away with finding shit out about Natiko, and as such I feel less suspicious towards him now.