Strategy, plans, discussions, oh my!

Discussion in 'Tactical Talk' started by heymonkey, May 14, 2019.

  1. heymonkey

    heymonkey yesssss my guinea pigs

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    Let's talk tactics!

    I'LL START: leaving early breadcrumbs about your PR can be really obvious and make you a scum target. When and how did we get so into breadcrumbs?

    Second: after a scum lynch, I always look at the last three (approximately, depending on size of game) votes on the scum, and the first two - at least, that's where I start looking.
     
  2. Brazil

    Brazil Well-Known Member

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    I’ve never seen the point of breadcrumbing a role as town, either. There’s very little benefit to it... other than confirming that you didn’t come up with a fake claim on the spot, I guess.

    It’s only a good move if you’re scum and you’re ready to commit to a fake breadcrumb from day 1. Even a little edge can make a difference when you’re on the spot.

    Disclaimer: literally never been an active town PR.
     
  3. Fantomas

    Fantomas Confirmed Town

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    How do you fake read someone when you're Scum? This was my biggest problem in Conspiracy, I couldn't give any reads past D1 so I just had to throw out a fake cop claim and ride the wave until it ran out and I got voted out.
    Why?
     
  4. heymonkey

    heymonkey yesssss my guinea pigs

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    Because the final votes are a good place for scum to jump on if a lynch has become relatively unavoidable, so they aren't off the scum vote. And occasionally you find that someone started a train on a scummate, or joined early, to look good... and then never came off. Maybe it gained steam pretty quickly or maybe they coordinated the bus. Obviously scum can be anywhere on a vote, or not on it at all, but those tend to be the most likely places so that's where I look first. BUT! It's important not to assume someone who didn't have a good reason is automatically scum. Often town will just switch because they have no idea what's up. So you gotta weigh everything carefully.
     
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  5. Brazil

    Brazil Well-Known Member

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    In my experience, in the same way you come up with reads of people when you're town - it just takes a bit of extra concentration to keep the actual truth of who the scum team is in the back of your mind for a little while.

    There are inconsistencies to be found in every player, town or not. As town, you've most definitely come up with multiple good cases against people who ended up flipping town as well in the past. These are the types of cases you're trying to make here. Just try not to worry too much about how what you're saying is going to be perceived, as a genuine scumhunter wouldn't.

    I guess hunting for inconsistencies to find a neutral player could also work if you have a hard time abstracting the actual scum team from your thought process.
     
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  6. Natiko

    Natiko Town's Friendly Neighborhood Serial Killer

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    Yeah, I agree with this a lot. Additionally, as you play enough games you'll start to get a feel for the things that stand out to you most when scum hunting. Continue to be mindful of those things even when you're scum. It can actually help your town game on the flip side as well as you start to figure out which of the "scum tells" you lean on are most commonly also displayed by town.
     
  7. Vincent Alexander

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    Oh hey! Didn't realize this thread was here! Awesome possum.

    Big, open question: are there any commonly held beliefs, tips, and tricks that you don't believe in? Some examples of ones I've heard since starting:

    -Never skip a lunch day. This always comes up in every game Day 1, especially with new players.
    -WIFOM. I've heard this a lot, but...I'm not sure I've ever taken the proper lesson out of it. IS there an answer? Is there a popularly held belief on how to deal with this dilemma in Mafia?
    -Don't vote bad play. This one trips me up the most. How on Earth do you even separate bad play from scummy behavior? I feel like more than not, people vote against bad play, and it leads town to killing town more often than not.
     
  8. Sorian

    Sorian Neutral Ascetic 1-Shot BP SK Alignment Cop

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    -There are really only two times you'd skip a lynch. Day 1 and if you can reasonably assume that you are in mylo (and to just cover bases since this is our strategy section, MYLO stands for Mislynch and Lose meaning you must lynch scum or the game is over BUT no lynch is a valid option that will not end the game as opposed to LYLO which is Lynch or Lose meaning you must lynch scum today or the game is over). So the whole day 1 topic is kind of a crap shoot which is why it gets brought up so much. To be as unbiased as possible, the more vanilla a game is, the more you should err to lynching on day 1 while the more role madness a game is, the more you should err to no lynch on day 1. The reason for this is that in a vanilla game, the ONLY information you will be getting is vote and lynch records so skipping day 1 means that you've just skipped a whole day where you can analyze votes. Meanwhile on the role madness side of things, the consideration is twofold, 1) getting scum day 1 is hard, that usually involves a lot of luck or a colossal fuck up from someone, between all scum not really ever needing to bus day 1 and just the pure odds, you are just more likely yo lynch town and the closer you are to role madness that also means you are likely to lynch a town PR 2) you will likely have access to other information sources in these games, a movement detecting role or investigator of some sort, they will provide you info in addition to normal voting records and flips meaning you can get away with skipping day 1, you are also providing them with extra cover since that's one more unlynched body that scum may choose to kill instead of the cop or tracker or whatever over night (this is negligible though because you are also leaving 1 extra body to be tracked or investigated or whatever and while town checks are useful, scum checks are really the main prize)
    As far as mylo/lylo, that's pretty self explanatory, even being unbiased, I would say you just vote no lynch in mylo 9 times out of 10. The only time it's the wrong call is if scum has an extra vote or extra kill that they have been saving all game until this final moment and that is such a rare case that you should never be planning for it. You can also fuse these two ideas together though it doesn't work much in our community since our games tend to have multiple killing roles in them. If you enter a game that has an even number of players and you can reasonably assume there will be no extra kills (or an even number of extra kills, maybe you are a two-shot vig for example) then you can kill two birds with one stone, voting no lynch day 1 here will cause the player count to go odd instead meaning you would always hit lylo instead of mylo.. Again, that's probably useless info for our community because of how unpredictable our kill PRs are but it's something you can always keep in mind.

    -WIFOM isn't going to get much tbh. There is no easy answer here. Everything is always worth discussing because it's a game of deduction but I promise you that whatever obvious conclusion you have reached, someone else has reached the totally opposite conclusion and is just as sure in their conclusion as you are in yours. Add in scum trying to purposely fudge things up and really, that's just the game of mafia.

    -Policy lynching is a hard one. The easy answer is that it depends on the skill level of your community. If the player's are generally good all around then policy lynching is the right call, it's likely you are seeing bad play due to being scum/nerves/having to protect a teammate/etc. If the players are generally bad in the community then policy lynching tends to be a worse call. You are more likely to hit town in this case and if you do even find scum, it was probably more due to dumb luck than actual caught out play on their part. There's more nuance of course, communities don't tend to have a blanket skill level and you'll find a bunch of people fall all along a curve. There's probably also more to be said about what if your community is particularly good at the town deduction side of the game but bad at the acting scum side or vice verse. Honestly, the best advice is probably to just say if you find bad play or something worth policy lynching, maybe use that as a jumping off point to focus on that player. Not to tunnel them per se but use that as an indicator to go read the entirety of their post history. See if you spot more obvious scummy behavior like inconsistencies in reads vs. votes, protecting scum that may have been revealed already in game, etc. And if you see something (or if the issue is they don't post enough), vote for them, see what shakes loose but keep an open mind at how they react.
    That said this is also probably worth a little blurb, "bad play" worth policy lynching: Inactivity, whether that be overall low post count or more focused inactivity (here a lot during the first 24 hours but gone for the next 48 or similar things) orglaring anti-town stuff (voting for them self, claiming a PR but never using or forgetting to use said PR, frustration leading to exiting the game, literally or figuratively). These things are not scum tells, they CAN be but that's where the extra re-read will help because you should be voting for JUST these things unless it's really early days and there's nothing else happening for whatever reason. "Bad play" that can actually be scum tells: defending scum, pushing a lynch onto town, scum reading someone but never really committing to the vote on them until they are forced to (and bonus if the person than flips as scum that they wouldnt commit to), tunneling. Now, all that said, there's obviously nuance here, town will be wrong. That's just the facts of the game, the person right about literally everything probably has to be scum just on the basis that scum has so much extra info. You're looking for consistency here to really read it as a scum tell. Did they refuse to completely commit to a vote that turned up scum and now you find them being non-committal to their reads again? That might be worth a vote. Did someone spend a big part of the game tunneling and after being wrong jump right into another tunnel without evaluating the game state? The pattern of behavior is probably the simplest way to answer this whole question but I hope the rest of this section wasn't a waste of time to read.
     
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  9. Nomad Sparkster

    Nomad Sparkster Ask me about Buck Bumble

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    How do I get better playing scum?
     
  10. Nomad Sparkster

    Nomad Sparkster Ask me about Buck Bumble

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    How do you tolerate playing mafia game with a large crowd?

    re reading conversations back a day or two seems like a chore

    like i get it

    but man I cannot do anymore large games because it goes 0-60 in span of hours
     
  11. Verelios

    Verelios Were-elios

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    You know that clever thing you were going to say? Don't say that.

    The rule is don't be too right, and don't be too wrong because they're both eyecatching. Learn the ways of LP and struggle into endgame.
     
  12. Fantomas

    Fantomas Confirmed Town

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    Anyone wanna talk about voting? :)

    Personally, I think it's one of the best tools in the game, regardless of someone's alignment, but especially as Town. If there are votes flying around left and right during the day, that is a good thing to me. Seeing wagons form, shift, reform, deflate, whatever, it's all interesting data to look back on, gives everyone stuff to talk about, and can possibly even peer pressure Scum into making votes that they are uncomfortable with.

    The common rebuttals I have heard to my way of thinking from Town players are either "I don't want to accidentally turbo someone before EoD" and "I want to be as sure as I can be that I'm voting for Scum when I vote"

    I will address these here:

    "I don't want to accidentally turbo someone before EoD"

    Then don't stack your vote on someone that has a lot already. For most of the game, there is going to be more than one player on the Scum team. It is possible to have more than one Scum player up for the vote (shoutouts to the SU Scum team) which means that if someone you think is scummy already has a lot of votes, you can vote for someone else you think is scummy too.

    "I want to be as sure as I can be that I'm voting for Scum when I vote"

    Do you have Chugg's role from HvV2? :P

    Serious answer: Everyone is going to be wrong as Town, a lot of times. I have been sooooooo wrong before lol. Wanting to be sure you are making the correct decision is admirable, but you are not locked in to the first, second, third, or even fourth vote that you make. You can always unvote or switch it to someone else during the day if that is what you decide to do.

    If anyone wants to chime in and tell me why it's not a bad idea to hold on to votes as Town until an hour or two before EoD or otherwise tell me why I'm wrong or why you would prefer playing like that instead, I would love to hear it.

    Edit: Also, I'm obviously not talking about LyLo/MyLo situations or other approaching end-game with several anti-Town left scenarios, I am talking early to mid-game here.
     
  13. Sawneeks

    Sawneeks Queen Doppelpopolis

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    Fanto speaking truths over here.

    I know one of my bigger hangups when it comes to voting as Town is I either lack the time to follow my vote and why I went with it in the first place or because nothing changes my mind.

    So say I vote Chuggs for some weird sketchy thing he did the previous Phase and question him on it. I'm sticking with that vote unless he gives me Town vibes, someone sketchier comes along, or I get satisfying answers and move on down the sketch list.

    Just not sure how to promote that to others for similar reason to what Fanto said above. You can't really force someone to vote so unless they also follow a similar thought process they will sit on the vote....
     
  14. Fantomas

    Fantomas Confirmed Town

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    Yeah, I don't really know if it's possible to get everyone playing like this, but I at least want to get my thoughts on it all down somewhere.

    I think it's at least been since Maple Street that I've been advocating for people to play like this with their votes. I just think it's a lot more useful to everyone if there are votes down on the board throughout a whole day phase rather than just as the approach to EoD comes up and people finally decide to place a vote somewhere.

    My main point is always that a vote is a tool and not a weapon. One vote isn't going to kill someone (unless it's the hammer vote obviously). One vote, however, could freak Scum out or cause them to get antsy and defensive, especially if they worry that other people are scum-reading them too and might also vote for them. Reactions to votes are a way to gauge someone, even if it's just one vote.
     
  15. Sawneeks

    Sawneeks Queen Doppelpopolis

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    Hey Fanto, how do you take votes and analyze them to look for Scum? Given how some Scum players have taken to bussing lately it's been a bit tough to use them as a way to find them. Town is just as likely to make bad votes as scum is.,
     
  16. Fantomas

    Fantomas Confirmed Town

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    A lot of it for me boils down to how someone places a vote I suppose rather than the alignment of the player they ended up voting for, as well as how their reads did or didn't line up with their votes. I do admit to having some trouble spotting bus votes though.

    I remember in House of Horrors, for example, I had a really good read on Girlofgotham on N1 based entirely on her D1 vote. I had been saying that Turmoil was probably Scum all day, which he wasn't, but the two Scum players in that game, Ty4on and GoG, both expressed concern about my read on Turmoil and how people were agreeing with me, and tried to steer things away from him throughout the day. At the end of the day though, GoG came around and was ultimately agreeable on the read and placed the final vote on him for the day. It felt to me like she was uncomfortable placing that vote because she already knew he was going to flip Town, but she needed to find a spot to blend since Turmoil was pretty much the only real option by day end, the other wagons weren't really picking up any steam, so her vote needed to be somewhere that a lot of people already were so it would be harder to pick her vote out from the pack. Of course, I also made a post towards EoD saying I wanted to look at both Ty and GoG depending on Turmoil's flip, so they killed me N1. But of course, I was a Neutral SK in that game, so ultimately I got the last laugh because I would have helped them with killing Townies off and could have even joined the Scum team if I had killed one of them lol.

    Look at Swamped's and Vere's votes in HvV2 on D1 for another example. Now, Vere did kind of fool me there, but Swamped really did not, I knew something was up with her. She voted for AB first for basically no reason, which Vere followed by coming up with a really convoluted reason to want to vote there too. Both were actively ignoring my read on Tearable as well or trying to steer things elsewhere, similar to how GoG and Ty acted towards my read on Turm in HoH. Right before EoD, Swamped switched her vote on to Stu with no reason given, while Vere moved his to Oliver after the tie caused the day extension. The real reason Swamped voted Stu, as far as I can tell, was to get her vote somewhere that already had multiple Town players. Same goes for Vere moving to Oliver, though he was joining his Scum mate Muffin on that vote, the fact that he waited until after the extension came through to swap there tells me he was uncomfortable with voting there but wanted to appear Townie by joining plenty of others on that wagon while ignoring the 5 or so of us that switched to Swamped after the extension.

    And another example, Natiko in Love Boat 3. I believe it was on D2, I had pointed out how Nat was searching and searching for someplace to put his vote. He ended up nitpicking some posts from Donna and questioning her for a while, before ultimately deciding to go with that for his big Scum read and vote while he was ignoring some of the more active players. Why? Because he was Scum and he needed to try to appear as though he was Town and was actively scumhunting, but in reality it was all fake. My mind was screaming at me that whole game, "Natiko is SCUM!" but no one would listen to me, they'd shrug it off or say "He's being weird I guess, but I think he's fine" and of course he was the last Scum that Town actually found because of all the bussing that he and Terra were doing together during that game, but I caught him early.

    Otherwise, just in general, I like to just stare at the vote tool and think to myself "Huh, why did this person vote here at this time" and then go back and check out their vote post, what was their reasoning, what were their reads earlier or later in the game, why did they feel the need to place that vote. This can at least lead me to start asking some good questions. Again, in HvV2, I think this was on D2 maybe, Fandorin had some voting behavior towards EoD that stuck out to me, they just felt like non-Town votes to me, and I slightly called him out for it and questioned him in Illuminati chat, but never really got to follow up much since I subbed out shortly after. But once again, Fando was Scum, and so my instincts when looking at his votes and how they made me feel about his alignment were correct.