Pair Thread The Specimen Lab - Night 6 Chat (Hawthorn/Kyanrute)

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Hawthorn

I'll explain my reasons later
I'm going to find out who this is when everybody claims tomorrow anyway. I think you should at least say hi, even if you're a Thing.
 

Hawthorn

I'll explain my reasons later
Town would have posted by now. This is a Thing Thread.

I'm very open to being infected, just so you know! I know Random protected me a bunch of times (assuming he's not one of you) but I don't know if he would do it a third time in a row. Too much of a pattern. I think you should consider using your shot on me, if it's a matter of limited shots. I'm good as mafia! Ask anyone.
 

Kyanrute

kyan-rute
ah the famous cult override nice

That feels really desperate to me. It obviously could be a power move to ascertain one more infection, but why not test Randomless then? What if he gets a protection off? That, combined with how the Thing has lost a few of its limbs over the past few days makes it hard to see this as anything but a numbers game and a play for time. Blarg was effectively dead and Hedin's name was getting floated as well. I am looking forward to Hedin's explanation, should be fun at least.
 

Kyanrute

kyan-rute
I should give you the spiel too, it is a tradition at this point.

I have a gun and I like to shoot with it. Besides Blarg and Hedin, who do you think I should shoot? Why shouldn't I shoot you?
 

Kyanrute

kyan-rute
I'll brainstorm three contact tracing ideas to see if any of them make sense to me.

1) Sole single infector (master) who infects via the chats. Power is passed to a thrall when the master dies.
2) Two infectors who infect via the chats. Power is passed to a thrall when a master dies.
3) Infection is a factional ability restricted by the chats.

1) The OG is Ambu / Nat / Blarg, because the N1 split appears to have only affected team-to-team actions. N1 infection was someone from Away but not me / Maol / you / Z-Beat / Neki / HP. That's everyone, so one of the three infected one of the other two.

Blarg is not the master since he yet lives and I wasn't infected last night. He also did not infect Z-Beat N3. Loki is clear. Ambu could've been the master as both Blarg and Chuggs were on his path. If Nat was the master, his power is now on someone else. Two possible candidates and for the reasons before, the power could've only ended up with Ambu.

Ambu -> Nat -> Blarg -> Chuggs -> master change (to Blarg) -> me. Impossible and Hedin is missing.
Nat -> Ambu -> master change (to Ambu) -> Chuggs -> Ambu dies, game over. Obviously impossible and Blarg and Hedin are missing.

Of known suspects only Chuggs visited Hedin. Hedin does not work as the original Thing, how about Chuggs?

Chuggs -> Hedin -> Hedin repeats -> Ambulance -> master change (to Hedin) -> you. Blarg is missing and I imagine you'll object to this theory as well.

The idea does not appear to work but both you and I become possible infected if just one more person (Hedin / Blarg) is somehow squeezed in. Only have to break the seal on N4 to do that. You were rather adamant about the idea that no infection happened on N4, what exactly makes you think that? Didn't people say that they got actions through?
 

Kyanrute

kyan-rute
2) Twice the fun. I'll assume that for the sake of allowing town some form of traceability, the master can only pass their power to their disciples.

a. Hedin -> Chuggs -> Chuggs repeats -> HP -> you.
b. Chuggs -> Hedin -> Hedin repeats -> Ambulance -> b1. N4 & master change to Hedin -> you.
-> b2. N4 & master change to Ambulance -> line dies or master change to ???.

c. Ambu -> Nat -> Blarg -> Chuggs -> N4 -> me.
d. Blarg -> Nat -> Ambu -> Z-Beat & Loki -> N4 -> me.
e. Nat -> Ambu -> me & master change to Ambu -> Chuggs -> N4 -> line dies or master change to ???.

To catch all presumed cultists without considering that something happened on N4, we need one point of origin from each of the N1 teams. To avoid as many cult-cult chats as possible, a and d need to be the picks. Funnily enough, those picks then create a cult-cult chat between us two.

In general the two infection angle seems like a mess to me.
 

Hawthorn

I'll explain my reasons later
I should have accounted for time zones -- sorry for being impatient.

There's no doubt in my mind that Hedin is scum after that. I wonder if they know the pattern of when we get the 4-test days. If they do, and if tomorrow's a one-test day, then it's possible Hedin thought it was worth the risk to shut the day town and prevent us from doing a mass test.

Hedin's power also did not seem like a scum power, meaning that he was likely recruited, not original. This also means that scum can still use their powers after being recruiting, so we can't rule people out based on demonstrated power use.

That feels really desperate to me. It obviously could be a power move to ascertain one more infection, but why not test Randomless then? What if he gets a protection off? That, combined with how the Thing has lost a few of its limbs over the past few days makes it hard to see this as anything but a numbers game and a play for time. Blarg was effectively dead and Hedin's name was getting floated as well. I am looking forward to Hedin's explanation, should be fun at least.

Why would they want to force a test on Random? Either he's a deep Thing and would die or he would be confirmed town, both bad options for scum.

I should give you the spiel too, it is a tradition at this point.

I have a gun and I like to shoot with it. Besides Blarg and Hedin, who do you think I should shoot? Why shouldn't I shoot you?

If you're asking about who you should actually shoot, if for some bizarre reason you don't feel like shooting Blarg or Hedin, you should save your shot. You shouldn't shoot me because I don't think you even suspect me, and because we have two players that we pretty much know are mafia.

If this is more of a question about who's my biggest scum read outside of Blarg and Hedin, I would say probably Loki based on thinking about contact tracing, followed by Vere, EC, and anex, based on a combination of contact tracing and reads.

Who did you shoot last night? You said at first that you shot Blarg but failed, but then later that Hedin was your shot target.

You were rather adamant about the idea that no infection happened on N4, what exactly makes you think that? Didn't people say that they got actions through?

I wasn't adamant about that. IF contact tracing is real, I believe that no infection happened on N4, because infection under that theory spreads through the night chats, and if there were no night chats, then no infection. It could be that theory is false, but I continue to believe it's likely true.

I haven't been thinking much about who had the infecting power, because my working theory was that all scum could infect and that it could grow exponentially. However I can see some of the problems with that.

If contact tracing is real, Chuggs has to have infected Hedin N1 (in home team thread) or N2, based on the theory that Hedin was not originally infected. The only other night chats Hedin had after N1 were with me and with HP the night after he was test/isolated. That means that Chuggs had the infection power by at least N2.

Could be there were two original things, Chuggs and Ambulance/Nat, and the infection power passes down if the original dies. ie there are always two possible infections per night. This fits with the mechanics by helping them stay ahead, then town are able to catch up on the 4-test days. This is basically the scenario laid out in your final post.

Random protected me last night, so if you believe him Hedin could not have infected me, even if he had the infecting power.

So:
N1:
Ambulance (M) -> Nat
Chugg (M) -> Thing A (EC, Random, Vere, anex or Loki)

D2: HP is tested

N2:
Chugg (M) -> Hedin
Ambulance (M) -> Blarg
Nat dies. Total scum are: Chugg, Ambulance, Blarg, Hedin, and Thing 1

D3: Maol and I are tested

N3:
Chugg and Ambulance had a chat with each other -- maybe mafia can't control all their bunk assignments? No new infections.

D4: Chuggs is tested and dies; infection power passes to Hedin. Mazre, Z-Beat, and Neki are tested.

N4: Everyone is isolated, so no one is infected since the infection passes through the night chats.

D5: Ambulance is tested and dies; infection power passes to Blarg.

N5:
Hedin (M) -> Hawthorn (blocked)
Blarg (M) -> Kyan

OK, now I see what you mean. If those assumptions are all real, you would have to have been infected. Of course, from my perspective, that's not at all an illogical outcome, especially since you wouldn't have the infection power so there's nothing to be taken from the fact that you don't seem to be about to infect me.

Of course, maybe the theory is wrong.
 

Kyanrute

kyan-rute
Yeah, I was already asleep when that mess happened :P

Why would they want to force a test on Random? Either he's a deep Thing and would die or he would be confirmed town, both bad options for scum.
Like I said, if this was a power move to win the game tonight or something on that level. If Rando gets tested, he can't protect anybody and the infection is more free to spread. I think this was the opposite, this was a survival move instead. I see what you say about him being a possible deep... what's the term for cult again? Hood? Deep hood? Sure. If he is that, I think he must've been a somewhat fresh recruit.

Hedin's power also did not seem like a scum power, meaning that he was likely recruited, not original. This also means that scum can still use their powers after being recruiting, so we can't rule people out based on demonstrated power use.
What makes you conclude the first thing? I think baking in an anti-quad test mechanic like that would be too strong and from a design POV a bit too predetermined.

If this is more of a question about who's my biggest scum read outside of Blarg and Hedin, I would say probably Loki based on thinking about contact tracing, followed by Vere, EC, and anex, based on a combination of contact tracing and reads.

Who did you shoot last night? You said at first that you shot Blarg but failed, but then later that Hedin was your shot target.
That's what it is at this point, well, that's what it always was. Gun is a topic that gets people talking. I shot Blarg last night; I debated between shooting him or Hedin. That's what I meant by Hedin being my 2nd target.

I wasn't adamant about that.
Ok, that certainly wasn't the feeling I got from your D6 opening post. I imagine you can understand why I thought like the way I did. Written word can seem very concrete even when it is not intended as such.

Who were Rando's targets again? I remember him spamming you but what happened before that? I ended up believing that Rando was town at least on the day he claimed, I should factor in what he claims to have done.
 

Kyanrute

kyan-rute
The all scum could infect idea sounded silly the first time it was said. Exponential growth is a horrible anti-town mechanic that has no place in a game. Default cult conversion is already a overpowered mechanic on its own.
 

Hawthorn

I'll explain my reasons later
Like I said, if this was a power move to win the game tonight or something on that level. If Rando gets tested, he can't protect anybody and the infection is more free to spread. I think this was the opposite, this was a survival move instead. I see what you say about him being a possible deep... what's the term for cult again? Hood? Deep hood? Sure. If he is that, I think he must've been a somewhat fresh recruit.

I town-read Random, but he would be a good infection target, so I don't want to discount the possibility, especially since we don't really know how infection works. That's a good point about trying to isolate Random in order to stop him using his protection action-- but I think the downside of him being confirmed town would be too much for them. I believe nin was picked because 1) he was getting some suspicion, so Hedin can at least try to claim it was a town action, 2) they might be worried about him having another shot that could give a 2-test day, and 3) he hasn't posted much, probably because he's busy, so having his voice as confirmed town wouldn't be too bad.

I like Deep Thing better than Deep Hood.

What makes you conclude the first thing? I think baking in an anti-quad test mechanic like that would be too strong and from a design POV a bit too predetermined.

I guess because it's essentially an override which is usually a town power. If used on a one-test day it could have been a very pro-town action to get a suspicious person tested before scum could affect the vote.

Ok, that certainly wasn't the feeling I got from your D6 opening post. I imagine you can understand why I thought like the way I did. Written word can seem very concrete even when it is not intended as such.

I get that. I am definitely adamant that IF contact tracing is real THEN nobody was infected on the night we all sheltered. But despite being a big proponent of contact tracing, I want to keep an open mind to the idea that infection could work some other way.

Who were Rando's targets again? I remember him spamming you but what happened before that? I ended up believing that Rando was town at least on the day he claimed, I should factor in what he claims to have done.

N1- Hedin
N2- Hawthorn
N3- HP
N4- Hawthorn
N5- Hawthorn

I guess he really likes the letter H. Also I forgot I had been protected three times. Now I feel less insecure about not getting infected.

This means that (if Random is telling the truth) Hedin can't have been infected N1, and he wasn't an original thing IMO, so that means that if contact tracing is real he was infected by Chuggs N2, which means that Chuggs was infected at least as of D2/end of N1.
 

Hawthorn

I'll explain my reasons later
The all scum could infect idea sounded silly the first time it was said. Exponential growth is a horrible anti-town mechanic that has no place in a game. Default cult conversion is already a overpowered mechanic on its own.

Yeah, but the four-test days are also overpowered for town. They could wipe out a normal-sized mafia within 2 days. That said, I don't think it can be true exponential growth. If the infection action isn't tied to a person, then there's some other limit on it. I'm just not sure the limit is one per night.
 

Kyanrute

kyan-rute
I like Deep Thing too, much better.

I was really surprised that we got a second four-test day. This late too, I got rather despondent for a while there. I fear this was our last freebie, I still think that all the ideas about exponential growth or something close to it are too much of a swingy nightmare to balance. But since the mechanic is there, something has to give. You are likely right about there being something to balance all the tests we've been give.

You've been protected that long huh. He claimed D4 right? It is very unlikely that you are infected then, assuming rather ordinary infection powers. Rando should be the more interesting and the more safe target to infect, even if Watchers are scary. You know, general doctor issues. That tosses the sole infector idea out of the window too, I'll make some tea and sit down to think about the factional mess. I tried to do that earlier, but it was rather hard to make sense of it all.
 
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