Even though I usually
hate these, here's a huge pre-typed post (probably the longest I've ever written) that I made because the revelation that there's a cult shook me to my core, and I kept digging to figure this shit out until 4 AM.
My first small brain take was that Sorian must be the cult leader. But then, looking back at the thread through the lens of a search for the word "vanilla", I found out that the cult leader is someone else, and that they'd already been caught... by scum.
Flux is the cult leader.
VOTE: FluxWaveZ
I know my track record in this game has been far from stellar, but I ask that you pay close attention to my case here, as it explains basically every single instance of seemingly bizarre and unexplained behavior from turmoil, Faddy and Flux in the first 3 phases of the game. It fits perfectly, and I'm
sure of it.
Flux being the cult leader explains:
#1 - Why Flux made that cheeky D1 post about how funny it'd be if he got lynched on D1;
#2 - Why turmoil started off D2 with that highly-suspect PR-seeking post;
#3 - Why turmoil claimed to be a Neapolitan with a check on Flux;
#4 - Why Flux's reaction to turmoil's claim was so slow and scummy when a simple counterclaim would've caught scum;
#5 - Why Flux started D3 with a gun to Faddy's head and tried to push town to hammer him asap throughout that phase.
#6 - Why Flux had that completely unnatural reaction to Faddy's reasonable doc fake claim.
#1
Alright. It all started with this post, from D1.5:
Alright, caught up. For now, I'll just say that it'll be pretty funny if I'm the one who gets lynched today.
It would, indeed, have been pretty funny if the cult leader had been lynched on D1. When questioned by Febe on who Flux would like to see shot by me, he doubled down on the idea that it'd be funny if he ended up lynched:
[...] FluxWaveZ: For the sake of humor.
Later, Flux went on to vehemently dismiss the notion that he was soft-claiming anything with these posts, and left them unexplained.
But these posts caught scum's attention. And so they decided that they'd use their weirdest PR on Flux to try and figure what the hell he was talking about. I think
absolutbro was right: scum has "a weak cop of some sort" as their own tool against the cult. With someone like Faddy in there, scum was definitely able to figure out that if they have some sort of cop at their disposal, that means that the game has some kind of neutral threat to them - not necessarily a cult, but a threat nonetheless. [Fake edit with something I found in the future:
oh hey!]
#2
And so scum checked Flux, and got
"Not Ordinary" as a result. Being under scrutiny after D1, turmoil grabbed that info and decided to play the role of Town Neapolitan to try and get some town cred. His opening post was a bit too heavy-handed, though:
RIP Geno/Faddy, at least no a PR
I expected Flux or Fran to die due to PR hints, probably they weren't because fear of a doc save?
turmoil wanted to flex that fake claim, but went too far. Flux immediately raised an issue with that post, claiming that they'd never hinted at any PR. He explained that he was talking about his cosplay name instead (which he later claimed to be Stan's).
You're weirdly pre-occupied about Flux apparently hinting at a PR. I never did this.
I'd normally wait for a reply before elaborating, but we're at a limit, so I think I know what you're talking about. But you know how each of us has a role name of another person? Well, yeah...
This pushed turmoil over the edge. Flux was being defensive about the accusation of being a PR, and turmoil
knew that Flux was a PR.
#3
This part actually doesn't need much deduction with the stuff above in mind. turmoil openly said in the thread exactly what he was doing when he outed Flux as a PR, why he was doing it, and even confirmed the reason why scum had targeted Flux with the check on N1;
I'm the Neapolitan, that is a role that tells you if someone is Ordinary Town or not, kind of like a vanilla cop
I know Flux is NOT ordinary
He is a neutral, he asked for ceecee's name yesterday, he said something about names today
I think he is a hunter
He laughed at the idea of being lynched on d1, I thought that if I could confirm he was a town PR I would defend him today, things took an unexpected turn
Flux's defensiveness over the alleged PR soft-claim made turmoil sure that Flux was neutral. He even came up with the theory that he was a hunter. Even though, as absolutbro later said, it wouldn't have made sense for a Town Neapolitan to out a possible town PR like that, turmoil was in a desperate position and tried to use his fake claim to lynch someone he knew was lying. Lynching a neutral wouldn't have cleared him, but it would've given him at least some credibility.
#4
And then comes the most important part. I've already gone over this in the past, as have many others, but Flux's reaction to the accusation that he was a PR was
very bad. Instead of taking a very clear stance against turmoil with a concise claim that would've guaranteed a scum lynch in turmoil, he flopped around for multiple posts, making non-specific claims about his power until finally giving in and claiming that he couldn't be targeted during N1. His first response to the accusation merely reads:
Fran then asks if Flux is claiming vanilla. Flux gets very agitated, but still refuses to claim:
I'm not claiming anything. I'm saying that turmoil is 100% lying right now, and I would vote for him if I could.
Dammit, should have kept my vote for the end of the phase.
Fran and Kyan call him out for this behavior, saying that there's no reason for him to not come clear with his info if he's sure that turmoil is lying, and ask once again if he's vanilla.
No. It isn't simple.
Ugh, fine, I'll enter the league of vague PR claimers. I'm not vanilla. But, also, there is absolutely no way Turmoil could have used his ability on me during N1. That's it.
But like hell I'm telling you what my ability is right now.
Flux finally caves in, but is still afraid of outright saying that he's a commuter, due to the very real risk of someone else actually being one and counterclaiming.
It took more than 6 minutes for Flux to say that he was a commuter after his post that claimed that turmoil was lying.
The reason why is very clear: he isn't a commutter.
He couldn't possibly deny that he was a PR. But he couldn't just take the hit from turmoil quietly, either. So he responded with a flippant and reactionary "You're lying".
But wait - if Flux is saying that turmoil is lying, that means that Flux is claiming to be vanilla. When asked about it, he says, "I'm not claiming anything. I'm saying that turmoil is 100% lying".
He's not. turmoil's demeanor throughout the entirety of D2 makes it very clear that scum
was actually able to check Flux on N1, and that they got the information that he wasn't ordinary. He was very sure of it - he went as far as to paraphrase the results the investigation yielded. The Neapolitan claim and the push against Flux (that wouldn't even have made sense coming from a Town Neapolitan) are clear signs of scum who had actual info as a tool, but couldn't figure out a way to use it in its favor. None of that could've been fabricated out of thin air.
Flux did not commute on N1. But after 6 minutes he finally figured out a lie that would explain his position - he couldn't be targeted on N1, so turmoil must've been lying.
"You're lying, I couldn't be targeted last night" would've been Flux's initial reaction to turmoil's claim if he actually was a commuter.
turmoil dies in opposition to Flux, flips scum, and since we had no reason to suspect the existence of an actual third faction in the game at the time, most of the thread just swept Flux's scummy behavior under the rug and assumed that he must be town.
#5
I'm not done, though.
In the midst of the mess that was that D2 EoD (or reading back during N2), it was Flux's turn to be the one to notice something weird.
Just because he commutes doesn't necessarily mean Turmoil can't get a check on him depending on how Bear chooses to do things.
Faddy reached for the stars with this post of support for turmoil. It didn't even make much sense. Flux actually wasn't the only one to notice this - others called him out on it later. But here, Flux was able to draw a link. Faddy was making up stuff in order to support his scummate.
But even more telling to Flux was this other post from D2's EoD:
You may as well just admit you have a PR role with a post like this. That is not the mindset of vanilla town.
This is fucking stupid.
Only much later
would my dearest late brother notice the weirdness of this post. He actually did that without having any idea of the cult's existence, which is pretty fucking amazing. To quote directly from him:
In the first reaction post to the mess, quoted below, Faddy mentions "This is not the mindset of vanilla town", and I found a bit peculiar how he adds the word "vanilla" in there. What difference would it make if this was the mindset of a Town PR?
Faddy was very specific. Faddy knew that turmoil's check on Flux had happened, and that it was real. From Flux's perspective of knowing that the check must've gone through since he wasn't actually a commuter, that was a smoking gun.
In his very first D3 post, Flux calls out Faddy, going out of his way to dismiss any notion that turmoil's information could've been real, and saying that Faddy's reactions to that EoD make him seem suspicious.
"Obvious from the way he was talking"? Even if I was vanilla, how would he possibly have known? I couldn't be targeted on N1. But that doesn't mean I have a power role. There's no reason to give any benefit of the doubt to turmoil after we've seen his flip.
And I think yesterday's events make you more suspicious.
Soon after, he put a vote down.
Your posts at the end of the day phase yesterday, combined with your "null read" of turmoil when those who are very much leaning towards town right now saw him as scum... Well, it's not a good look to me.
Vote: Faddy
He never wavered from that vote throughout the entirety of D3 (even though
he also suspected Fandorin), and instead of considering other options, spent the phase making posts like the one below, which tried to push people into lynching Faddy asap, and therefore himself into the direction of those sweet town points:
In fact, it's looking like it'll turn into Faddy vs malus and Fandorin's gonna fall by the wayside.
Hey,
malus, change your vote to Faddy for your own sake. And everyone else voting on Fandorin can do so, too. We only have 3.5 hours left, anyways.
#6
Then came Faddy's doctor claim. This has already been discussed at length before, but basically everyone believed that the claim was reasonable before KetKat's counterclaim.
But not Flux.
And you're saying that town has a bulletproof, a commuter, and a doctor? Not experienced enough for balance stuff, but that seems like a lot of defense.
Oh please.
Let's kill the "doctor."
Scum roleblocking + killing Pirate Bae in the same night is excessive. That story is a funny one.
Not buying Faddy's claim.
And you couldn't just tell Natiko that you were the doctor in your chat before then, since you were apparently planning to reveal it to the rest of us anyways? Sure.
These posts were all made before KetKat had counterclaimed. Flux's push against Faddy for his claim is artificial and forced - it doesn't gel with how reasonable the claim is.
He refused to address what multiple people brought up - that Chuggernaut's claim was more weirdly-timed and suspicious than Faddy's. And he got angry when questioned about it:
Because I don't care about Chuggs, he's not the focus right now when we're supposed to be looking at Faddy/Fandorin. Don't try to misdirect, which is exactly why I was for getting it done with earlier so we didn't have to deal with this kind of crap.
Flux saw that people were believing Faddy's claim, and that he would escape, so he started panicking and pushed hard against Faddy when it didn't make much sense to do so.
Thankfully for him, KetKat swooped in and sealed Faddy's fate. And once again, since Flux ended up in clear opposition to scum, the rest of the thread overlooked his bizarre behavior and unknowingly slotted him into a "semi-confirmed town" space.
And there you have it. After losing the two teammates who went against Flux and with no sign of the existence of a cult anywhere to be seen for almost six phases, scum probably decided that it was in their best interest to leave the mysterious neutral alone, and instead started gunning down the confirmed townies.