Pair Thread Brazil x FluxWaveZ Suite
- Thread starter The Bear
- Start date
Yo, I'm here. Let's do our best.
Something I'm not clear on, and which I'm inclined to ask in the thread once the game starts if it can't be answered here, is if all of the mafia pairs are together in a single chat here, or if they also each have their own individual boat chats. I'm not sure how it happened the other times.
Something I'm not clear on, and which I'm inclined to ask in the thread once the game starts if it can't be answered here, is if all of the mafia pairs are together in a single chat here, or if they also each have their own individual boat chats. I'm not sure how it happened the other times.
As a straight up doctor without limits who can also self-target, our role is probably one of town's most important. It'd be nice if we could actually be useful in that capacity without dying immediately.
Should we make any plans going into this? Anything to breadcrumb? I usually go into this not caring if I stand out or not as a vanilla town, but that wouldn't be wise considering our role. I guess try not to stand out too much on D1 so we don't end up being a lynch/NK target—not being too confrontational with anyone or antagonistic—but still participate enough to not look like we're coasting?
Should we make any plans going into this? Anything to breadcrumb? I usually go into this not caring if I stand out or not as a vanilla town, but that wouldn't be wise considering our role. I guess try not to stand out too much on D1 so we don't end up being a lynch/NK target—not being too confrontational with anyone or antagonistic—but still participate enough to not look like we're coasting?
Definitely no breadcrumbs. Scum will be on the lookout for those, and it serves us no benefit in the long run. We're the doc - people won't have a choice but to believe us once we claim. And if they still don't, then that means we fucked up somehow along the way and a D1 breadcrumb wouldn't make a difference anyway, haha.
I usually end up standing out a bit during D1 because I don't like fucking around with joke votes and all that, and with players like Sorian and Fandorin in there, I won't have the luxury of mixing things up too much. They'll take note of a change in behavior if I'm too subdued, and that'll be bad for us regardless of their alignment (but probably worse if one of them is scum). I'll try not to push too far, though, haha.
But in general I think that we should play as if we were vanilla townies. Depending on what goes down on D1, it might be wise to self-target on N1, but I don't think we're going to be priority targets for scum either way.
The main thing, I think, is to not run away from arguments, as that could be seen as a sign that we're avoiding confrontation. We don't need to comment on everything that's going on, but we can't gracelessly exit a conversation if we end up involved. Besides, having some level of scrutiny would be great, as it would keep NKs away, and I'm confident that we can avoid being lynched even without having to claim.
I usually end up standing out a bit during D1 because I don't like fucking around with joke votes and all that, and with players like Sorian and Fandorin in there, I won't have the luxury of mixing things up too much. They'll take note of a change in behavior if I'm too subdued, and that'll be bad for us regardless of their alignment (but probably worse if one of them is scum). I'll try not to push too far, though, haha.
But in general I think that we should play as if we were vanilla townies. Depending on what goes down on D1, it might be wise to self-target on N1, but I don't think we're going to be priority targets for scum either way.
The main thing, I think, is to not run away from arguments, as that could be seen as a sign that we're avoiding confrontation. We don't need to comment on everything that's going on, but we can't gracelessly exit a conversation if we end up involved. Besides, having some level of scrutiny would be great, as it would keep NKs away, and I'm confident that we can avoid being lynched even without having to claim.
True, some level of scrutiny helps when it comes to avoiding an NK. I think the most important point there is to not hint at having a power role at all during D1 (related to your point on breadcrumbs) because scum will most likely be looking to kill someone who has starting off with this many players involved.
I won't run away or ignore arguments that involve me, but I'm not necessarily going to insert myself into them much on D1. I won't be taking many hard stances, I'll say that much.
In the end, it's pretty much like you said: playing like vanilla townies.
I won't run away or ignore arguments that involve me, but I'm not necessarily going to insert myself into them much on D1. I won't be taking many hard stances, I'll say that much.
In the end, it's pretty much like you said: playing like vanilla townies.
For me, I don't know about Stuart. it might be an unfamiliarity with how he's played before, but people talk about how he tends to be scum read early on in games and then has a more meaningful presence later on. Monkey, however, gives me weird vibes. I think it's how she's had a couple responses to people saying that she likes their post, including mine, even though there's not that much of substance. A subtle attempt at pocketing, if you will.
But I don't know if scum Monkey would be willing to vote against Sorian out of the gate like that and make it a relatively big deal. I feel like she would have played it more straight, or given up on the "meme vote" earlier by admitting there was not much to it, or something.
But I don't know if scum Monkey would be willing to vote against Sorian out of the gate like that and make it a relatively big deal. I feel like she would have played it more straight, or given up on the "meme vote" earlier by admitting there was not much to it, or something.
Also, I kinda feel like the Dr. Stu team is one of those with the most momentum behind it for potentially a D1 lynch, and it's been that way for a while now. I have to wonder if a scum team would have already built that suspicion. But yeah, there's always the possibility that Stuart was identified early on.
That’s a good point. It does kinda feel like at least half a dozen other players would be voting for them now if we were closer to EoD.
If by tomorrow morning momentum remains like this, I’ll have a hard time justifying a vote there. Scum would definitely try something to save two mates, considering how many players are out there to work as a smokescreen.
To me, Kyanrute seems reasonable, and I like the observation he made about faltearthpandas' post here at #1,331. Makes me feel better about him and empressdonna. Other than that, I'm not sure. I actually feel iffy on Geno, and I don't know what to think about Dr. Monkey + Stuart444.
That is indeed a good post.
Have you played with Geno before? His demeanor can be very off-putting to people who aren't familiar with his playstyle. I'll try to search for the post that triggered my positive impression of him later.
I'm going back and forth on Monkey/Stu, even though I purposefully backed away from them for now in the thread. There's something off about Monkey's "momentum" explanation.
Is it? I suppose so from some of the reactions, but trying to not make it seem like I'm trying to get the PR lynched or anything. About that, though: apparently Pirate Malus did have overt breadcrumbs over the course of the game? We should look into this after this phase ends. Could be a suitable doctor target.
Honestly, I have no idea about the lynch this EoD. I'll just go with whatever; I'm not changing my vote. But I don't feel good about it, either.
I don't think it makes much of a difference, tbh. They're definitely gonna come for us tomorrow.
I hope that they don't waste a check on us, however :P
I have a galaxy brain take for our potential target, but I'll search for quotes to justify myself later. Gotta get back to work now, haha.
Hmph, between my apparently off behavior EoD and your lack of presence D1? Well, whatever, a bit of heat is fine, but having us be the primary targets would feel off. I'd be suspect of anyone making a huge push for it to set up the next potential mislynch.
I'll look into things myself, naturally. Doesn't seem like we have to worry about self-protecting this night.
I'll look into things myself, naturally. Doesn't seem like we have to worry about self-protecting this night.
Yeah, heat on us is great. If we manage to put in a good enough effort during D2 to hold back a lynch without having to claim or even suggest that we're PRs, we can ride that shit out.
Regarding the heal target - we have one clear PR claimant in Bae/malus, and one bizarre soft PR claimant in Coolest/Z-Beat.
(Bae had quoted people talking about her cop fake claim multiple times right before posting that Detective Pikachu gif. She's definitely claiming cop.)
I think neither scum nor us have much choice but to target Bae here. I'm afraid of the possibility that they might have a tracker, though, which would be fucking awful.
We might find out if they have a strong killer if we target Bae. If they don't, though, it's possible that they'll take the risk in letting Bae live for a day.
This is awful WIFOM territory. What do you think?
Regarding the heal target - we have one clear PR claimant in Bae/malus, and one bizarre soft PR claimant in Coolest/Z-Beat.
(Bae had quoted people talking about her cop fake claim multiple times right before posting that Detective Pikachu gif. She's definitely claiming cop.)
I think neither scum nor us have much choice but to target Bae here. I'm afraid of the possibility that they might have a tracker, though, which would be fucking awful.
We might find out if they have a strong killer if we target Bae. If they don't, though, it's possible that they'll take the risk in letting Bae live for a day.
This is awful WIFOM territory. What do you think?
I see, so Pirate Bae's not-so-subtle claim is that of a cop (if this isn't manufactured). Being an obvious NK target, it's what you said: the fear is the potential of a tracker and also a strongman. We wouldn't be able to do much about the latter anyways and it'd give us that info; the former would indeed be an issue.
CoolestSpot's whole thing was weird. It did seem like a fumble on outing himself being a power role, then trying to recover by talking like he hadn't read his role PM at all.
Either of these teams seems like it'd be the right way to go for N1, with Pirate Malus being the "logical" one to do. Assuming that Pirate Malus are indeed town-aligned cops, I don't know that scum would be willing to let them go even one night phase left alive. It'd be too dangerous.
CoolestSpot's whole thing was weird. It did seem like a fumble on outing himself being a power role, then trying to recover by talking like he hadn't read his role PM at all.
Either of these teams seems like it'd be the right way to go for N1, with Pirate Malus being the "logical" one to do. Assuming that Pirate Malus are indeed town-aligned cops, I don't know that scum would be willing to let them go even one night phase left alive. It'd be too dangerous.
I'm looking at the Coolest posts again and I just can't understand it. I wouldn't heal there. It could be genuinely not having read his role PM, or it's a more malicious ploy than an earnest question. If his pair is not scum, scum would also have to ask themselves what exactly was going on there, so they'd need to measure whether or not that kill would even be beneficial. He did jokingly hint (#335) at something which would normally imply one knows what they actually are, but I don't know. Being cagey around it would at least indicate that he would know the importance of not outing himself.
I'm increasingly thinking the Dr. Stuart team silently slipped away while some manipulated EoD1 into focusing on 3 teams who are all actually town (while attempting to lay the seeds for another going forward). There have been several posts here and there commenting on how Dr. Monkey feels off, and I have felt the same, but the focus was always on Stuart's behavior and thus their suspicion was waved away because of shaky grounds. But I don't think that's right. The thing that gives me pause here is the back and forth Stuart had with Kitsune, with how arguing over the mundane could be seen as town-v-town.
Looking at the vote tool, for how much talk Dr. Monkey and Stuart seemingly got throughout the phase, they didn't actually get that many votes in retrospect. It was just Fran, Sorian, Fantomas, Kitsune, Geno, and Sparks. I think it's odd for a team talked about so much in a negative sense to have so few votes on them, Meanwhile, absolutbro & Ty4on rose out of nowhere as the end of the day approached (along with Pirate Malus), which cemented the break away from Dr. Stuart.
I'm increasingly thinking the Dr. Stuart team silently slipped away while some manipulated EoD1 into focusing on 3 teams who are all actually town (while attempting to lay the seeds for another going forward). There have been several posts here and there commenting on how Dr. Monkey feels off, and I have felt the same, but the focus was always on Stuart's behavior and thus their suspicion was waved away because of shaky grounds. But I don't think that's right. The thing that gives me pause here is the back and forth Stuart had with Kitsune, with how arguing over the mundane could be seen as town-v-town.
Looking at the vote tool, for how much talk Dr. Monkey and Stuart seemingly got throughout the phase, they didn't actually get that many votes in retrospect. It was just Fran, Sorian, Fantomas, Kitsune, Geno, and Sparks. I think it's odd for a team talked about so much in a negative sense to have so few votes on them, Meanwhile, absolutbro & Ty4on rose out of nowhere as the end of the day approached (along with Pirate Malus), which cemented the break away from Dr. Stuart.
I'm willing to bet that Pirate Malus is some sort of town-aligned investigative role for now... sure. I won't be surprised if she claims it's something other than cop, though, but I think this is the team we should heal on N1.
1. If no one dies (or the death is really weird, like scum dying) on N1, we'll have some confidence that our protection worked and also that Pirate Malus is indeed town-aligned. We'd also be ready to accept whatever follow-up they have to give.
2. If Pirate Malus dies, we'll know that there's a strongman involved.
3. The trickier part is if a sensical death happens away from Pirate Malus (maybe indeed CoolestSpot + Z-Beat). It'll be harder to gauge what that means about Pirate Malus. Was scum too scared to attempt a kill on them because of the obviousness, even though their role is potentially too powerful to ignore? Could this have troubling implications for Pirate Malus' alignment?
#3 is the scenario that scares me, but we'll also look pretty stupid if we healed somewhere else and Pirate Malus just died on N1. I think the obvious route can be the right one, here. It feels like Pirate Bae could have overtly hinted at an investigation role out of restlessness.
1. If no one dies (or the death is really weird, like scum dying) on N1, we'll have some confidence that our protection worked and also that Pirate Malus is indeed town-aligned. We'd also be ready to accept whatever follow-up they have to give.
2. If Pirate Malus dies, we'll know that there's a strongman involved.
3. The trickier part is if a sensical death happens away from Pirate Malus (maybe indeed CoolestSpot + Z-Beat). It'll be harder to gauge what that means about Pirate Malus. Was scum too scared to attempt a kill on them because of the obviousness, even though their role is potentially too powerful to ignore? Could this have troubling implications for Pirate Malus' alignment?
#3 is the scenario that scares me, but we'll also look pretty stupid if we healed somewhere else and Pirate Malus just died on N1. I think the obvious route can be the right one, here. It feels like Pirate Bae could have overtly hinted at an investigation role out of restlessness.
I'm with you on Monkey/Stu. Everything about their D1 play is abnormal, from the bizarre frustration early on, to the dramatic "Please do this when I'm dead" spiel, and finally the "There was never actually any momentum against us" post by Monkey.
I keep falling back to how, paired with Monkey, it wouldn't make much sense for a town!Stuart to get that frustrated on D1. He'd be confident in that situation, and not defeatist.
Scum!Stuart, on the other hand, I could totally see breaking down if their powerhouse love boat sunk right off the bat on D1.
Regarding the target - you're right. As much as I'd love to surprise scum with an unexpected move, it really is our fiduciary duty to target Bae/Malus here.
HEAL: Pirate Bae and Malus
With any luck the scum PRs are weak and they decide to target them anyway, relying on the hope that town won't have a doctor.
(Considering the fact that we can even self-target, though, I doubt that's the case. They probably have strong kills up their sleeve.)
I keep falling back to how, paired with Monkey, it wouldn't make much sense for a town!Stuart to get that frustrated on D1. He'd be confident in that situation, and not defeatist.
Scum!Stuart, on the other hand, I could totally see breaking down if their powerhouse love boat sunk right off the bat on D1.
Regarding the target - you're right. As much as I'd love to surprise scum with an unexpected move, it really is our fiduciary duty to target Bae/Malus here.
HEAL: Pirate Bae and Malus
With any luck the scum PRs are weak and they decide to target them anyway, relying on the hope that town won't have a doctor.
(Considering the fact that we can even self-target, though, I doubt that's the case. They probably have strong kills up their sleeve.)
It seems we didn't die. With the likelihood that we're going to be pressed and scrutinized, do you have any thoughts on how we should operate going into this day phase? I won't put any weird thoughts out there outside of clarifying what I was thinking if anyone directly questions me. Other than that, I'll stay quiet if I'm unsure of how to proceed with what someone's asking.
If we successfully managed to save Pirate Bae + Malus (and even if we didn't), we probably still shouldn't be hinting at our role, right? Worst comes to worst, that'll probably need to be something we reserve for the end of the phase.
If we successfully managed to save Pirate Bae + Malus (and even if we didn't), we probably still shouldn't be hinting at our role, right? Worst comes to worst, that'll probably need to be something we reserve for the end of the phase.
Fantomas was quickly to jump in against Monkey.
It's right around this point that Stuart becomes tilted, as Fanto puts their boat in the lead. Kits also goes back to her vote against them, leaving them with 4.
When confronted by Kits about how they're not putting in the work, Monkey says the following:
Around this point, Monkey/Stu are still in the lead with 4 votes against Coolest-Beat and KitsKalor with 3 votes each.
Monkey then drops some really weak reads/questions. The fact that she was asking you about someone not wanting to vote for Reki immediately struck me as busywork when she'd originally made that post.
The whole "Do you really think we would show our asses as scum?" thing is almost too uncanny to be coming from scum, but so was that MafiEra post.
The rest of the post just simply handwaves all arguments against them away, followed by the suggestion that people who want to put in work should just look elsewhere.
She repeats the whole "scum wouldn't do that" thing multiple times.
https://www.resetera.com/threads/love-boat-3-mafia-ot-this-time-its-bearsonal.116855/post-20841941
She tried to pocket you after you said you weren't interested in their train: https://www.resetera.com/threads/love-boat-3-mafia-ot-this-time-its-bearsonal.116855/post-20842644
In that same post, she start's to agree with Stu's defeatist attitude ("If I change, then the change will be what we'll be accused for").
"Look elsewhere" again: https://www.resetera.com/threads/love-boat-3-mafia-ot-this-time-its-bearsonal.116855/post-20850249
Also says that she was only on the Sorian vote for 4 minutes, despite having argued for it way past the unvote command.
Another awful post dismissing all points against herself and Stu as "arbitrary". Extra points for the "We are not a D1 lynch" line, which is literally why Stu was so tilted.
Calls Geno out but is afraid of calling him scum outright.
Claims that the people who were voting for them "haven't done shit since early in the phase".
Ends with "Don't forget this when I'm dead" faux-drama.
Doubles down on "What makes Sorian/B-Dubs town?" https://www.resetera.com/threads/love-boat-3-mafia-ot-this-time-its-bearsonal.116855/post-20859126
More faux-drama
Suddenly,
===
Pretty big post. I'm probably gonna sit back a bit to see how things go, but I'm probably gonna polish this and vote for Monkey sooner rather than later.
In response, Monkey strangely doubles down on what I believe everyone saw as a joke vote against B-Dubs/Sorian:
She wants B-Dubs to "demonstrate a reason" why they shouldn't get rid of them, which is such a fucking weird thing to propose when the game has just started.
It's right around this point that Stuart becomes tilted, as Fanto puts their boat in the lead. Kits also goes back to her vote against them, leaving them with 4.
When confronted by Kits about how they're not putting in the work, Monkey says the following:
Which is interesting considering the wording behind her initial prodding vote against B-Dubs - she pushed him against the wall and asked him to be productive, but her excuse for not being productive is the fact that she'd been pushed against the wall.
Around this point, Monkey/Stu are still in the lead with 4 votes against Coolest-Beat and KitsKalor with 3 votes each.
Monkey then drops some really weak reads/questions. The fact that she was asking you about someone not wanting to vote for Reki immediately struck me as busywork when she'd originally made that post.
This post is actually bad enough to remind me of that one MafiEra post in which she said we couldn't possibly draw anything from Faddy's posts.
The whole "Do you really think we would show our asses as scum?" thing is almost too uncanny to be coming from scum, but so was that MafiEra post.
The rest of the post just simply handwaves all arguments against them away, followed by the suggestion that people who want to put in work should just look elsewhere.
She repeats the whole "scum wouldn't do that" thing multiple times.
https://www.resetera.com/threads/love-boat-3-mafia-ot-this-time-its-bearsonal.116855/post-20841941
She tried to pocket you after you said you weren't interested in their train: https://www.resetera.com/threads/love-boat-3-mafia-ot-this-time-its-bearsonal.116855/post-20842644
In that same post, she start's to agree with Stu's defeatist attitude ("If I change, then the change will be what we'll be accused for").
"Look elsewhere" again: https://www.resetera.com/threads/love-boat-3-mafia-ot-this-time-its-bearsonal.116855/post-20850249
Also says that she was only on the Sorian vote for 4 minutes, despite having argued for it way past the unvote command.
Another awful post dismissing all points against herself and Stu as "arbitrary". Extra points for the "We are not a D1 lynch" line, which is literally why Stu was so tilted.
Calls Geno out but is afraid of calling him scum outright.
Claims that the people who were voting for them "haven't done shit since early in the phase".
Ends with "Don't forget this when I'm dead" faux-drama.
Doubles down on "What makes Sorian/B-Dubs town?" https://www.resetera.com/threads/love-boat-3-mafia-ot-this-time-its-bearsonal.116855/post-20859126
More faux-drama
Then... their train deflated.
Suddenly,
"There wasn't actually momentum. It was all early."
We went back and forth over this, but this whole line of reasoning makes no sense. When they were under the pressure of actual votes, they were literally begging for mercy and telling us what we should do after they were dead. Once the votes went away, suddenly "there wasn't actually momentum".
===
Pretty big post. I'm probably gonna sit back a bit to see how things go, but I'm probably gonna polish this and vote for Monkey sooner rather than later.
I agree with all of that; I meant to look back on that specific pair myself, but I'll pay close attention to what they say moving forward and relate it back to how they behaved before. Stuart also liked the "scum wouldn't behave this way" rhetoric that Monkey was going for, which isn't a defense that others used.
So those N1 results... Well, I really don't think we would have landed on Fran/Fandorin if we decided against Pirate Malus, so I don't feel bad there. It does indeed imply that they don't have a strongman kill if Pirate Malus is town. An investigative role heavily implied like that would be dangerous for them to play with, but I can't ignore the possibility that they were willing to risk it.
It casts doubt on Pirate Malus' alignment, too. The possibility that it was a fake "claim" should definitely not be dismissed. Let's see what they have to say.
Fran/Fandorin is a strange kill. I wonder if they were subtle about something...
So those N1 results... Well, I really don't think we would have landed on Fran/Fandorin if we decided against Pirate Malus, so I don't feel bad there. It does indeed imply that they don't have a strongman kill if Pirate Malus is town. An investigative role heavily implied like that would be dangerous for them to play with, but I can't ignore the possibility that they were willing to risk it.
It casts doubt on Pirate Malus' alignment, too. The possibility that it was a fake "claim" should definitely not be dismissed. Let's see what they have to say.
Fran/Fandorin is a strange kill. I wonder if they were subtle about something...
Two great players who were under the radar. Great N1 targets. There's no way they breadcrumbed anything because my brother would never do that.
Yeah :(
Sure. I have a feeling whatever result they happen to have will be inconclusive and useless. I'm also not sure it's going to be a straight cop. This situation feels whack; it's what I was talking about in the thread and people were yelling at me for. What I'd want is a full role claim and what they did on N1, but I won't be talking about that right now.
Btw, I've been side-eyeing SkyOdin and TheChuggernaut for a while now. I'd need to go back to gather why, but this recent post refreshed that in my mind:
Btw, I've been side-eyeing SkyOdin and TheChuggernaut for a while now. I'd need to go back to gather why, but this recent post refreshed that in my mind:
SkyOdin said:
Yup. That post got my spider sense tingling as well.
1-shot cop, huh.
I think Bae/Malus are self-watchers. Maybe they have a BP as well. The fact that they're trying to claim cop actually gives me some hope that they were merely baiting a kill. And scum self-watchers are mega OP, as it's really easy to bait every possible town PR into targeting them on N1.
I just hope Bae doesn't out us for no reason.
I think Bae/Malus are self-watchers. Maybe they have a BP as well. The fact that they're trying to claim cop actually gives me some hope that they were merely baiting a kill. And scum self-watchers are mega OP, as it's really easy to bait every possible town PR into targeting them on N1.
I just hope Bae doesn't out us for no reason.
Yeah, that "1-shot cop" role claim doesn't make sense if she's also claiming she got a check on someone she knows interacted with her team.
So... I guess that's us? Definitely not touching that yet. She sounds confident, so I can buy it... for now. We'll see how Pirate Malus responds to us moving forward, outside of that.
Less attention on the both of us than I had thought there would be. That's alright.
So... I guess that's us? Definitely not touching that yet. She sounds confident, so I can buy it... for now. We'll see how Pirate Malus responds to us moving forward, outside of that.
Less attention on the both of us than I had thought there would be. That's alright.
Nah, it's not that bad. She's still claiming it was 1-shot. Maybe it was actually a 1-shot self-check? That sounds like an odd role to have. But she also says that she knows the role of those involved and their alignment, so perhaps that's what would make it powerful? I'm not sure how exactly to interpret it.
But what it does mean is that we have a green check. It's not great if it means we need to be outed by Pirate Malus for at least our alignment (if they know we're doctors, they surely wouldn't say it), but we can self-heal, and there's a fair assumption that they don't have a strongman. We're kinda even night bulletproof in that sense, if we want to be (though there can be other killing elements to this game, like the odd mail CoolestSpot + Z-Beat were talking about).
Or if suspicion mounts on us, we have that green check to fall back on, too. Couldn't save the vigs, but this is at least a better outcome than having healed on nowhere, I think.
But what it does mean is that we have a green check. It's not great if it means we need to be outed by Pirate Malus for at least our alignment (if they know we're doctors, they surely wouldn't say it), but we can self-heal, and there's a fair assumption that they don't have a strongman. We're kinda even night bulletproof in that sense, if we want to be (though there can be other killing elements to this game, like the odd mail CoolestSpot + Z-Beat were talking about).
Or if suspicion mounts on us, we have that green check to fall back on, too. Couldn't save the vigs, but this is at least a better outcome than having healed on nowhere, I think.
I stand by the idea that they're self-watchers, and they wanted to potentially draw scum PRs on N1. Maybe they're BP and could've survived a NK - there was a role like that in my game, Mansion.
I think they just know that we're town because they didn't die, their BP didn't get wasted, or they could see what the command used on them was (the latter is unlikely, as I don't remember seeing this role before in this community).
The cop thing is probably bullshit. They're claiming to be 1-shot so that scum thinks they're playing coy and targets them on N2 just to be sure.
It's not a bad play, but I don't think it'll work.
Yeah, we as a team are in a good position now that we're almost sure they don't have a strong kill out there. I actually do believe the Z-Beat/Coolest poison thing too, which supports the idea that they don't have a strong kill.
I wonder... We can see it like that because we know what it is she's talking about, and thus her town alignment has been somewhat validated, but to the others it's still a lot of nebulousness. But yeah, there are things to gain from looking at how others are interacting with it.
Natiko: Will doubt it until there's some amount of proof. Cites MafiEra as past example.
Terraforce: Wants to know who exactly it was Pirate Bae is talking about, despite knowing it was a green check and that they have a power role.
Sorian: Believes Pirate Bae is role fishing for those involved to out themselves before she says otherwise. Also wants her to claim who they are, so the people involved can make their role claim later on.
B-Dubs: Catching back up, but latches onto Bae's claim immediately also saying that she should say who is involved.
Apollo: Believes Bae should give the check because if she dies with it, she won't be able to confirm those involved. Sorian makes the same argument. TheChuggernaut comes in later after Pirate Bae says why that isn't the case with the same argument.
Those are the ones that stand out to me. I think it's weird how B-Dubs had to make it known he wants to know what Bae was talking about when he admits himself he was catching up.
Natiko: Will doubt it until there's some amount of proof. Cites MafiEra as past example.
Terraforce: Wants to know who exactly it was Pirate Bae is talking about, despite knowing it was a green check and that they have a power role.
Sorian: Believes Pirate Bae is role fishing for those involved to out themselves before she says otherwise. Also wants her to claim who they are, so the people involved can make their role claim later on.
B-Dubs: Catching back up, but latches onto Bae's claim immediately also saying that she should say who is involved.
Apollo: Believes Bae should give the check because if she dies with it, she won't be able to confirm those involved. Sorian makes the same argument. TheChuggernaut comes in later after Pirate Bae says why that isn't the case with the same argument.
Those are the ones that stand out to me. I think it's weird how B-Dubs had to make it known he wants to know what Bae was talking about when he admits himself he was catching up.
Really tempted to answer some of the Pirate Bae doubt with a shrug or giving benefit to the doubt to the "other team" and what she's saying, but that'd be a bad move. So I just won't touch it. However, as it ramps up, Pirate Malus might feel the need to take a certain action. The best case is that this only happens if either Pirate Malus is truly looking like a lynch target, or we are.
Bae was saying how it would be our move to make for whenever we wanted to out ourselves. That's reasonable, but honestly, I don't like the idea of us coming out and saying "Yeah, we're the ones" and Pirate Malus then going "Yeah, they're the ones." There has to be some kind of major nod towards us first; I'm not willing to just buy it if we make the first move.
Bae was saying how it would be our move to make for whenever we wanted to out ourselves. That's reasonable, but honestly, I don't like the idea of us coming out and saying "Yeah, we're the ones" and Pirate Malus then going "Yeah, they're the ones." There has to be some kind of major nod towards us first; I'm not willing to just buy it if we make the first move.
See, this post was my hesitation: https://www.resetera.com/threads/lo...me-its-bearsonal.116855/page-42#post-20948412
malus says they checked TyBro, and that the check was green.
malus says they checked TyBro, and that the check was green.
(Still catching up)
This is the second time Monkey has made an effort to point out that she was feeling strange around Fandorin https://www.resetera.com/threads/love-boat-3-mafia-ot-this-time-its-bearsonal.116855/post-20945040
This is performatics. He's dead. Who gives a shit?
This is the second time Monkey has made an effort to point out that she was feeling strange around Fandorin https://www.resetera.com/threads/love-boat-3-mafia-ot-this-time-its-bearsonal.116855/post-20945040
This is performatics. He's dead. Who gives a shit?
Okay, not surprised there. Wonder how things will go now. There's the potential that Dr. Monkey and Stuart are town; it's going to be a mess if they're the focus and they are indeed town. But I was more sure that Sorian and B-Dubs were, which is why I wanted Dr. Stuart flipped first. Lame.
Anyways, for our heal target, I guess we have:
1. Ty4on and absolutbro: "green checked" by our supposed cops.
2. Pirate Bae and Malus: the cops themselves, claimed one-shot.
3. CoolestSpot and Z-Beat: Double vote power, so likely town aligned.
In my mind, out of these 3, #3 is the most "verified" right now. Another possibility is looking at what Pirate Malus' reads were, and trying to determine who the gossip duo are from there, and protecting them if we think they're town-aligned.
Or just going for some galaxy brain thing. We could also just protect ourselves.
Anyways, for our heal target, I guess we have:
1. Ty4on and absolutbro: "green checked" by our supposed cops.
2. Pirate Bae and Malus: the cops themselves, claimed one-shot.
3. CoolestSpot and Z-Beat: Double vote power, so likely town aligned.
In my mind, out of these 3, #3 is the most "verified" right now. Another possibility is looking at what Pirate Malus' reads were, and trying to determine who the gossip duo are from there, and protecting them if we think they're town-aligned.
Or just going for some galaxy brain thing. We could also just protect ourselves.
I actually don't think protecting our own asses tonight is that much of a galaxy brain take given our options.
If we could, I'd probably go for #2 again, but I wouldn't be too fussed about losing #1 or #3 given their past activity, as harsh as that may sound. Both have had members replaced, too, which means that they'll be even less helpful for town moving forward.
I think that, tonight, scum either targets Bae/malus to be done with it, or goes for a kill on an unsuspecting townie who they think they might have a hard time lynching - and I actually feel that we fit the bill. No one outright scumreads us right now. At most they're saying stuff like "It's kinda neutral-ish".
My only fear is that if we protect ourselves tonight, we won't be able to do it on N3. If we go forward with that, we need to go full ham against someone during D2. That way, we'll either flip a scum player, or flip a town player and be spared for that.
If we could, I'd probably go for #2 again, but I wouldn't be too fussed about losing #1 or #3 given their past activity, as harsh as that may sound. Both have had members replaced, too, which means that they'll be even less helpful for town moving forward.
I think that, tonight, scum either targets Bae/malus to be done with it, or goes for a kill on an unsuspecting townie who they think they might have a hard time lynching - and I actually feel that we fit the bill. No one outright scumreads us right now. At most they're saying stuff like "It's kinda neutral-ish".
My only fear is that if we protect ourselves tonight, we won't be able to do it on N3. If we go forward with that, we need to go full ham against someone during D2. That way, we'll either flip a scum player, or flip a town player and be spared for that.
Right, While we don't know if #1 is a power role, I don't think #3's is useful enough (forgot it's Lone_Prodigy now). Ours is certainly more important.
So I guess what we need to determine is just how likely we are to be NK'd on N2. Being in that kinda nebulous area and the possibility of a power role making us the targets for a lynch sounds like something they'd do, and there's also the fact that neither of us was on the Sorian + B-Dubs vote; scum would probably want town teams on that vote to remain and be forced to defend themselves. Dr. Monkey and Stuart444, especially, if they were town.
My hesitation comes from the possible "town" targets this night phase increasing the likelihood that we're not the ones who'd be targeted. But, after all, the "obvious" one wasn't targeted last night. There's also the issue that, like you said, this would put us in a place of vulnerability on N3. We wouldn't want to appear to be important power roles before then, and we'd want to give scum less reason to target us (lest it was for a scum lynch).
So yeah, I'm fine with us self-healing this night.
So I guess what we need to determine is just how likely we are to be NK'd on N2. Being in that kinda nebulous area and the possibility of a power role making us the targets for a lynch sounds like something they'd do, and there's also the fact that neither of us was on the Sorian + B-Dubs vote; scum would probably want town teams on that vote to remain and be forced to defend themselves. Dr. Monkey and Stuart444, especially, if they were town.
My hesitation comes from the possible "town" targets this night phase increasing the likelihood that we're not the ones who'd be targeted. But, after all, the "obvious" one wasn't targeted last night. There's also the issue that, like you said, this would put us in a place of vulnerability on N3. We wouldn't want to appear to be important power roles before then, and we'd want to give scum less reason to target us (lest it was for a scum lynch).
So yeah, I'm fine with us self-healing this night.
So here's how I see it: I don't think Pirate Malus, Absolufat, or Lonest Spot are going to end up dead this day phase after D2. All of them have a good amount of suspicion surrounding them. We all know Lonest Spot is likely town due to the power, but they're not a team that would be urgent to kill if that double is directed towards mislynches like D2, and I feel CoolestSpot has been misguided certain times.
Flipping Pirate Malus would then say something definite about Absolufat. It's probably in their best interest to keep suspicion surrounding both of them (and I also still doubt Pirate Malus).
Dr. Stuart is going to clearly remain alive after D2.
In my mind, this means that the death will come from the 10 remaining teams. They'd probably want to spare people who were consistently on the B-Dubs & Sorian vote and went to defend Fantomas & Zipped (who will likely be alive after D2 as well)? That would include Geno Sparks, SkyOdin + Chuggernaut (though Chuggernaut did start going after Fantomas & Zipped right at the end...), and they're definitely keeping Reki + Xbro alive.
That leaves:
1. Verelios + Apollo
2. Natiko + Terraforce (there was some conflict between the Sorian and B-Dubs team between these two, but not that much, relatively)
3. Brazil + FluxWaveZ
4. rac + Vincent Alexander
5. Stantastic + flatearthpandas
6. Kyanrute + empressdonna
I think Verelios and Apollo have been well town read; maybe the least suspected of these groups? I think we come out looking "good" after the Sorian and B-Dubs mislynch that scum could have an issue with. There have been a couple of implications here and there that we might have a power role. Haven't seen that for the others.
I'm not sure who would be the likely NK among these, but I do think that we have a good chance of being it. There's also considering Fran and Fandorin being NK1, and I feel like we're kinda close to them in a weird way, going down to the useful town power role. So I think if we were going for a shot in the dark, we might as well take that shot on ourselves.
The issue is the fact that we won't be able to self-heal on N3... Well, the good thing is that if we were the N2 target, they'd probably consider aiming somewhere else on N3.
Flipping Pirate Malus would then say something definite about Absolufat. It's probably in their best interest to keep suspicion surrounding both of them (and I also still doubt Pirate Malus).
Dr. Stuart is going to clearly remain alive after D2.
In my mind, this means that the death will come from the 10 remaining teams. They'd probably want to spare people who were consistently on the B-Dubs & Sorian vote and went to defend Fantomas & Zipped (who will likely be alive after D2 as well)? That would include Geno Sparks, SkyOdin + Chuggernaut (though Chuggernaut did start going after Fantomas & Zipped right at the end...), and they're definitely keeping Reki + Xbro alive.
That leaves:
1. Verelios + Apollo
2. Natiko + Terraforce (there was some conflict between the Sorian and B-Dubs team between these two, but not that much, relatively)
3. Brazil + FluxWaveZ
4. rac + Vincent Alexander
5. Stantastic + flatearthpandas
6. Kyanrute + empressdonna
I think Verelios and Apollo have been well town read; maybe the least suspected of these groups? I think we come out looking "good" after the Sorian and B-Dubs mislynch that scum could have an issue with. There have been a couple of implications here and there that we might have a power role. Haven't seen that for the others.
I'm not sure who would be the likely NK among these, but I do think that we have a good chance of being it. There's also considering Fran and Fandorin being NK1, and I feel like we're kinda close to them in a weird way, going down to the useful town power role. So I think if we were going for a shot in the dark, we might as well take that shot on ourselves.
The issue is the fact that we won't be able to self-heal on N3... Well, the good thing is that if we were the N2 target, they'd probably consider aiming somewhere else on N3.