Hey Pedro, how's your recovery going? Hope it's good!
TLDR; Wee is not the NK because reasons.
Kill: TearablePuns
Track: TearablePuns
By the way please don't feel forced to read my ramblings, I put no requests for you in there this time, and all the questions are just my stream of consciousness. Now if you feel like answering these in Spec or something, I won't stop you or anything.
1. Role distribution
1.1. Confirmed
1.1.1. Sample
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Sebastian, the Vanilla Townie
1.1.2. Town
-
Natiko: The Player, the Roleblocker (cannot target the same person on consecutive nights)
-
Fireblend: George, the Lover (no chat)
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Ynnek7: Evelyn, the Lover (no chat)
-
flatearthpandas: Gust, the 1-shot Party Host
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malus: Pierre, the Compulsive Fruit Vendor
- Stantastic: Linus, the 1-shot Friendly Neighbor
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NeonBorealis: Kent, the Odd-nights Commuter
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Vincent Alexander: Abigail, the Vanilla Townie
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Aeleus/nin: Demetrius, the Vanilla Townie
1.1.3. Mafia
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Kalor: Shane, the Goon
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Verelios: Pam, the 2-shot Bus Driver
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Maolfunction: Morris, the 2-shot Strongman
- empressdonna/Reki: Sam, the Tracker
1.2. Claimed
- Blargonaut: Mayor Lewis, the Messenger (50 characters, can't divulge role information)
- weemadarthur: Harvey, the Doctor
1.3. Who knows
- Lone_Prodigy
- Stuart444/TheChuggernaut
- Razmos/EzekelRAGE
- TearablePuns
- Z-Beat
Nothing really new here outside of some speculation;
I don't think there's another investigative role out there anymore. There're a bunch of powers that can be confirmed - Ice Festival, Party Host, Lovers, Fruit Vendor, Friendly Neighbor, Messenger - and a plain Cop doesn't make sense, it would be too much and, as Mao pointed out, it would have discovered at least one of us. Maybe a Rolecop, but the VT claim Maol did wasn't openly refuted either (although it was criticized). Dunno.
The Smith is a lie. There's a couple things going against that theory - like the lack of highlight tags and the fact that fep, a confirmed player, didn't receive a BP - but I just found this piece of evidence;
Where did me having a vest come from
i thought raz claimed they got a message giving them a hard hat that would save them from attack.
Thanks. Why would you believe the message is real and not a joke msg from blarg
That doesn’t explain why you believed raz’s claim to be a real bp.
Unless Zeke was baiting, he didn't know about the BP message, which means he didn't get it when replacing in. Why not? Because it wasn't considered as relevant info for a replacement.
Then there's wee claiming to be Hated now, but Blarg used "they" to refer to the recipient of his message last night, and although he could have used it to indicate an undetermined player, he probably couldn't resist the coincidence of using wee's actual pronoun. No one else claimed to have received a message, Blarg has been pushing for wee for a while now and, once again, no highlights. So yeah, hats off to Blarg, he's been extremely good at misdirecting.
And so if wee is a protective role, they're most likely a Doctor.
Well thank you folks, all that speculation and you just go and confirm it with your claims like it's nothing.
I've also thought of a crazy gambit in which they're baited into protecting me and then we do a no-kill night, getting soft-confirmed in the process, but it's too high risk and super hard to pull off in the current scenario.
Seems interested in tracking night actions for info
And it seems like they found the breadcrumbs. Huh. That could actually be good bait...
2. Unnecessary data
I'll put these here just for reference, since the targets today will be picked in relation to the claims.
*Blarg is out again, and I'm this close to getting Chuggs out too, you graph-ruiner.
**The tendency (trend?) lines are softened, that's why they look wrong at points.
*Once again, there's a lot of interpretation going on in here. Note: third day in a row that Z-Beat has little in the form of reads, that's a good argument against him.
3. Night kill
3.1. Crumbing Doctor
So, to the elephant in the room, wee's claim. It was uncalled for; they were getting some votes but nowhere near nin nor majority. That Hated message from Blarg probably caused it, though.
Here's the thing. The obvious play is to NK them. That leaves protection out of the picture and everything would be in order to enter the last third of the game. At day start, people will probably go for either Z-Beat or me, they may even want to turbo. The people who pushed wee may get some heat too, like Zeke, Blarg and TP, but I don't think any of these lunches is likely.
But.
There're a few reasons that make me not want to pick wee;
- It's the most boring of the targets this night, and as said, my stance is not to
kill the people I need to kill to win but rather to have some fun.
- It's actually enjoyable to try and guess who are they going to protect.
- It was actually a bit sad when they said;
The bit about working was sorta a joke....and sorta to acknowledge VA doing effort. Granted I’ve put MORE effort into games, but well....I gave that up once mafias stopped letting me live past D4 in general, it was all so....wasted.
And most importantly; it's a chance at chaos. As said earlier, the PoE will destroy me until the boat changes its direction, and not killing a claimed Doctor is too unconventional of a play to ignore.
Then again, although I hope to shake the understanding some players have of the game, there's people that will see straight throught the ruse, like LP or Z-Beat. But the thing is that there're still players on there that are either too crazy (Blarg) or sometimes a bit stubborn (like Zeke or TP) to let this go without questions. I mean, just look at this;
But at the same time it's an easy fake claim for scum since we haven't had any deathless nights.
But if you are town doc........why did you believe the bp
There's a seed of doubt right there, and a seed is all we need to start a new case. Then, after the case is solved - be it because wee is actually lunched or another player is out and I NK wee next night - the cases against Z-Beat, me, or one of the people who pushed the Doctor can be made. The difference? We're one phase ahead. So,
i gave you my targets etc. have fun.
I'm sorry, wee, I truly am, but I can't kill you this night. Hoping you understand and don't get upset about it. The good news is that I should be defending you, it's the consistent thing to do with my reads and
that could score me some town points after the flip. Although that's too obvious, yeah, erase that last part.
Now, can this backfire horribly? Of course. I'm half-expecting the NK to be blocked and town to lunch me tomorrow. But that'd be a way more interesting day than going with the Doctor NK, since a lot of unexpected stuff can happen. So yeah, don't criticize me Spec, I know it's a terrible, non-recommended play but it could give you more of a spectacle, stop whining.
3.2. Don't take it personal
Mafia might want to not kill me tonight.
We'll be going with a simple PoE tonight, but aiming for more of an unexpected player considering we went for fep last time. Tried to get wee's last target in her breadcrumbs - who would be a safe target tonight because they probably have the "not two nights in a row" condition - but no luck. I'm honestly too dumb to understand your breadcrumbs, wee. Apologies.
So, we can't go for;
- Stan: he's confirmed, has been playing from his gut rather than by making arguments and I find it cute that he trusts me, even if just a bit.
- LP: widely trusted and one of wee's strong town-reads. I also think he's been the best town player this game - willing to re-evaluate where others just fixiate on targets - and want to discuss more with him. To keep in mind; not killing him tonight means I can't target there until N8, considering I'd need to go for wee first, and that's a lot of time for him to solve the game.
- Zeke: he's one of the main pieces of tomorrow's ruse, I'll need him tunneling for everything to work out as hoped.
- Z-Beat: he'll probably be the alternative to my lunch, although he has a pretty good voting record. I basically cannot NK him.
That would leave us with Blarg, Chuggs and TP.
Here's the thing. wee could either just give up and not even send the command tonight, target one of their town-reads, or try to anticipate that I wouldn't go for such an obvious target and go for a player they have more of a neutral stance on. The three above could fit in that category.
Blarg is the most trusted of them - and could help to induce some chaos into the phase - but both Chuggs and TP could face a case against them in the following days. Especially the latter, for pushing the Doctor so hard, having somewhat of a stubborn approach to some cases - I've been loving your work this game, TP, but it's kind of hard for you to look outside of that "priority" list you made - and voting off-wagon last phase despite making a strong case for wee.
Chuggs has been a bit more trusted, and LP seems to think he's clean due to the vote records. I'm one of his top suspects, but I brought some attention to his read on Maol and a NK could mean someone like LP remembers that and makes the connection.
This one is hard. I really want to go with TP but he's so good at distracting town's attention, and a NK is basically reducing the pool of potentially suspicious players, which is super bad for my odds at surviving. But at the same time Chuggs is the obvious target mafia!Reki would go for, I can see the questions after the flip. But Chuggs is more likely to be protected by wee, and also! I just remembered;
Yes, thank you, even if Kalor does get lunched today, acting like he's the best option with absolutely no counter or anyone else on any other wagons other than Donna, who Reki really can't even defend for, just isn't good for town.
Let's be nice to the replacement then, sounded fair at the time. Dunno what to make of that comment after his flip though.
You know what TP, you've been putting in great work this game, I really like that you spot little details and have a good memory to bring back stuff from earlier days. But I can't engage with hottakes in my current situation, so this was me at the time for like 10 minutes;
(Know you'll appreciate the reference)
So TP it is.
Had a lot of fun arguing with you, hope we play again soon!
4. Tracking
The thing now is that we know who is the protective PR and as such I can start repeating targets with my Tracking if that's necessary to look more towny. I'll even make a wild guess and say that there's probably no more PRs alive outside of the Messenger, Doctor and Festival Organizer, so we can relax a bit here.
In fact let's go easy tonight, it'd be hard to explain that in six nights the targets of the NK and my Tracking never were the same. Good reasons to suspect him;
- The push for the Doctor. I could even theorize a mafia!Rolecop to justify suspecting there.
- His off-wagon vote after that initial wee push.
So, yeah, TP again, how original.
5. Scenarios
The NK target is so terrible I need to consider some potential outcomes. From most to least likely, in my opinion;
5.1. Some players see through the ruse
This will happen, it's super obvious. If not because it's a predictable trap, because it leaves the reads of players like LP and Stan untouched. They can continue pushing for their suspect and trusting wee. Nothing is more comfortable than not having to re-think your solid reads, right?
Z-Beat and I would probably be the lunch candidates in that scenario. Stan and LP could be allies to look at. I'd also need to either start some case on Zeke based on the wee push or just play defense the whole phase.
5.2. Wee blocks the NK
I don't think this is super likely as TP doesn't seem to be trusted by wee. But in the case that they go with a wild target for reasons, it could get real bad for me in there considering we'd be adding one more mislunch needed to MyLo and wee could confirm that TP was mafia's target and, as such, probably town.
We'd need to push Z-Beat or Zeke in that case.
5.3. Some players push wee
Zeke, Blarg and TP would be the more likely to try and pull this off. Once again, it's comfortable when you don't need to move your reads around, and I'm giving them some space for that this night. Blarg is so chaotic it will probably enter in one of his string of posts questioning why is wee alive, making for some good noise.
This is the best case for me, as it could take over the whole phase with an useless discussion.
5.4. wee goes mad they're still in the game
I'm sorry.
5.5. People suspect Blarg is the only crazy player that could try to pull a mafia gambit like this
This would be good, but Blarg can swing a vote at any given moment so I'd need to be careful with my posts and votes. And the GIFs would be missed.
I defended Blarg a lot in an earlier phase, that's something else to consider.
5.6. Mass claim
This is not really related to the flip, but could happen nonetheless if people are desperate for information after the game didn't end with nin's flip.
My claim is ready to go (just have to add the TP explanation), the only caveats being that it's too careful in its writing - since it's been prepared for a while - and that I have yet to get a result at all. In a game with so many moving parts, getting "No Results" all the time is super hard to believe. I may need to invent some stuff here.
The sensible thing is that the most suspicious Vanillas would go first instead of a claimed Tracker though. In that case, Z-Beat/Zeke/Chuggs - although their voting records are better than mine -.
6. Other notes
wee and LP are probably next, in that order.
The Reads gathered above gives an impression of small clusters/duos of players that mutually trust themselves. For example, wee and LP wouldn't go for each other, neither would LP and Blarg or Stan and wee - at least not yet -.
For all the people suspecting me, they surely do not like to engage when I make cases. It's getting a bit frustrating to be honest, to just hear "Yeah they're putting in effort." but nobody openly agreeing/disagreeing/questioning stuff. Are my posts that bad? Do they somehow sense that they don't come from a good place?
By the way did I go too far with the "Please don't turbo" post? It was a bit more confrontational at first but I rewrote it like three times to hit a more conciliatory tone. And there were still comments about it as if I was super mad or something.
I'll probably try the "I'm so sorry nin, I don't know anymore with this game." discourse tomorrow for the "That's anti-town behavior, Reki." and "Don't give up!" answers that give a general good feeling to the involved players when the sad poster accepts the advise and moves on. Then I could commit to a bit of prodding/game-solving and a vote on either Z-Beat or Chuggs/Zeke, depending on how things go. It's the natural progression of wrong!town!Reki in my opinion.
Although that sounds too evil and manipulative, I already feel terrible about it. Hmmm. I'll ask the pillow.
Good night!