So, where I'm at right now is that I think scum is in Nin, Hawthorn, Chuggs or Turmoil (less sure on Turmoil and Zipped. Fran basically left that line of questioning alone, and if I were a deep wolf guy I would say Launch specifically targeted Zipped to keep the appearance of it not being a bus if either fell on the sword. Turmoil is themlm easy answer though.)
How did your chat leave you feeling on Nin? And how do you feel about Zipped/Turmoil? T/T?
Would scum Chuggs push Launch like that? That's a pretty hardcore deep wolf move. It is not impossible, but I don't see it being a viable long-term scum play. Scum should realize that they need the mislynches to win, they can't win the attrition game as long as you are out there checking things.
That's also why I came to like those that voted Launch, the coordinated bus play is bad when scum are -2. I think it is easier to look for the signs for the other play, to look for those who really did not want Launch to die. nin is a late hop on Launch and his reasoning is off. turm tosses his vote here and there, looking for alternatives to Launch, and eventually ends on the one credible counter-train.
I wouldn't entertain Zipped as the next lynch, just because he was the counter to Launch and Launch himself pushed him rather hard. That's the simple idea. The extreme idea is that Launch pushed Zipped to give Zipped cover when he died -
no way is Zipped scum because how Launch acted toward him!
Chuggs pointed this out in party 1, but would Fran and scum Hawthorn all push loki together? How things went, it looks like loki was at least a shallowly planned mislynch, but would three scum all push to the same direction? Also, if you buy the idea that Zipped, a counter to Launch was town, why didn't scum Hawthorn go there instead of entertaining the nin possibility? If you want to entertain the paranoid option though, she didn't want to go to Zipped because he was scum as well. The Jman check is something interesting though, if turm flips scum. Hawthorn wanted to block Jman over turm, because Jman said that he had no night action.
I think we should entertain the simpler options first. If I had to rank these people from t to s: Chuggs > Hawthorn > Zipped > turm > nin.