A Place to Vent
- Thread starter Faddy
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Ok first thoughts is that this is a good roster of players so basically anyone we hit whether its for a lol or for real reasons is going to good target.
Also, have either of you started thinking about when we might go single kill (assuming we last long enough)? I was thinking maybe Night 3 depending on how things are looking, make them think that someone on D2 was scum and let them spin on that for a day. Or would it be better to utilize the double kill as long as we have it?
Also, have either of you started thinking about when we might go single kill (assuming we last long enough)? I was thinking maybe Night 3 depending on how things are looking, make them think that someone on D2 was scum and let them spin on that for a day. Or would it be better to utilize the double kill as long as we have it?
Verelios
Were-elios
Isn't there a likely vig? We might need to take that into account too. And judging by the roster we don't have a lot of quick shooters among us.
Hah.
Kyanrute
kyan-rute
My impression is that this is very much an all-or-nothing type of a game. The game both strongly rewards and discourages bussing. PR claims are among (TEEHEE PUN) the best town cred sources that one can get, but the claims should also lead to the claimant's immediate death on the night after. A swingy game, possibly.
IMO tonight we play "who does the doctor protect?" The double kill is a great tool and while every missed kill is proof that the missed target is not the doctor, we don't want to be missing any kills. We should take a look at the players and think which players are targets that a doctor would choose to save. It's very much a meta pick 1st and once that becomes a point of consideration, one can take it at least a single level deeper with something like "a doctor would not protect Sorian because he's such an obvious typical kill, a doc would pick someone more middle-of-the-pack instead!" You know, the typical doc speculation.
I'd protect one of Sorian / Terra / Hawthorn as a doc. We of course run into a problem if one of those rolls the doc. The other issue with this kind of play is that a good doc would die before claiming. The fear of the doctor is the doctor's greatest weapon. In that sense, our double kill can also be used as a doc scan.
IMO tonight we play "who does the doctor protect?" The double kill is a great tool and while every missed kill is proof that the missed target is not the doctor, we don't want to be missing any kills. We should take a look at the players and think which players are targets that a doctor would choose to save. It's very much a meta pick 1st and once that becomes a point of consideration, one can take it at least a single level deeper with something like "a doctor would not protect Sorian because he's such an obvious typical kill, a doc would pick someone more middle-of-the-pack instead!" You know, the typical doc speculation.
I'd protect one of Sorian / Terra / Hawthorn as a doc. We of course run into a problem if one of those rolls the doc. The other issue with this kind of play is that a good doc would die before claiming. The fear of the doctor is the doctor's greatest weapon. In that sense, our double kill can also be used as a doc scan.
Kyanrute
kyan-rute
N3 is the final night if things go well for us. Quick head-math says that we never stack kills in optimal scenarios unless we get a cop claim. I feel that such moves come only into play if we find ourselves in a corner. Still, the vigi can hinder such moves if they choose to shoot on a stacked night and abstain from claiming after the deed.
tldr; shit be situational imo.
Verelios
Were-elios
If I were Doc, I'd protect one of Kyan/Sorian/VA, because my first thought would be to figure out who is generally townread, can start town off running and will catch the bullet. This is the HIGH road for optimal scum hit.
From my meta experience, the MIDDLE road has people who are usually read with mixed alignments (Me, Hedin, Geno, Terra, etc) who will likely not be a doc's first choice of protection, but can also be a wildcard WIFOM doctor choice. This is where scum usually pick their hits N1 because a doctor has to juggle between the mid and high road, and will more than often pick high. This is a normal hit, very safe in the short run but not for the long game. (Note: This tells a lot about scum because meta-wise, some people will target others in this group more often)
The LOW road are people who might be scumread for play style or just by living long (I'd say Blarg, Nin, Hawthorn, etc) are here because of their past scum games. These are good lowkey scum players, and they'll always get a bit of side eye even when they're actually being reasonable, haha. Doctors often won't go here N1 because of that hesitation, and it'll be strengthened if they keep living. This is a wildcard hit, it keeps town guessing and on their toes.
From my meta experience, the MIDDLE road has people who are usually read with mixed alignments (Me, Hedin, Geno, Terra, etc) who will likely not be a doc's first choice of protection, but can also be a wildcard WIFOM doctor choice. This is where scum usually pick their hits N1 because a doctor has to juggle between the mid and high road, and will more than often pick high. This is a normal hit, very safe in the short run but not for the long game. (Note: This tells a lot about scum because meta-wise, some people will target others in this group more often)
The LOW road are people who might be scumread for play style or just by living long (I'd say Blarg, Nin, Hawthorn, etc) are here because of their past scum games. These are good lowkey scum players, and they'll always get a bit of side eye even when they're actually being reasonable, haha. Doctors often won't go here N1 because of that hesitation, and it'll be strengthened if they keep living. This is a wildcard hit, it keeps town guessing and on their toes.
Yeah I didn't actually do the math, best case scenario this could go very quickly. Maybe we hold it in the bag if on one of the first two days one of us is catching a lot of heat to maybe use it as a distraction to shift the narrative away from us.
I'm good with Hawthorn as one of the targets tonight, she's pretty good about teasing stuff out unless we think she might be good first day vote candidate because no one wants to deal with a potential scum Thorny.
I'm good with Hawthorn as one of the targets tonight, she's pretty good about teasing stuff out unless we think she might be good first day vote candidate because no one wants to deal with a potential scum Thorny.
Kyanrute
kyan-rute
I can see doc protecting VA too, it ain't that unorthodox if you are aware how easy it is for him to get town read. I always pick the high picks as doc, there is no point in entertaining the possibilities when you can go for the certain. In this case, the "certain" is just whether or not the player is a notable asset to town from the get-go if they happen to roll as town. I'd shoot two from the middle pack tonight if this all was on just me.
Kyanrute
kyan-rute
Daring non-minmaxers would try to kill Hawthorn tonight imo. I think she is a valid protection target and thus a bad kill target, but some people wouldn't care about such meaningless considerations. I'd imagine that most of the daring non-minmaxers would bend before the rest of their team and their objections if such arose so if a Hawthorn kill went through, I'd assume that the whole team would be filled with people that were more inclined toward fun and gambits than cold strategizing.
I think that the doctor will pick a player based on their worth as a town asset. Everyone is a blank slate on a night start so you protect the players with the greatest townie potential. I'd prefer not shooting Sorian / Hawthorn and I'd have reservations about shooting VA / Terra. I consider the rest potential kills.
If I'd have to pick right now, I'd shoot Stan and Ty but I think the optimal pick here is to gambit a bit. It's just that if we fail the gambit, it can easily cost us the game.
Verelios
Were-elios
Hm, I wanted to go Stan and Terra myself for two good players who might not have protection.
I don't recall playing with Ty before so I would have to differ to both of you on what bucket he would fit into. I doubt he would be a N1 doc target.
I like Stan as a pick, unlikely to be saved but can be an issue later. Someone like him can sometimes be hard to vote out because of the time differences, only argument for keeping him around is that it might be hard for him to be around for the votes so that might be one less vote to worry about.
I do think the other one should be a bit of a gambit, either go after a top tier or one of the more wild cards. I think I want to leave Hawthorn for a day and see if she gains any votes tomorrow. With that in mind maybe Sorian on the safe side and Blarg on the wild card side.
I like Stan as a pick, unlikely to be saved but can be an issue later. Someone like him can sometimes be hard to vote out because of the time differences, only argument for keeping him around is that it might be hard for him to be around for the votes so that might be one less vote to worry about.
I do think the other one should be a bit of a gambit, either go after a top tier or one of the more wild cards. I think I want to leave Hawthorn for a day and see if she gains any votes tomorrow. With that in mind maybe Sorian on the safe side and Blarg on the wild card side.
Chuggernaut
HONK HONK MF
I actually did not do that lol.
Bet it was Monkey
Bet it was Monkey
Verelios
Were-elios
This is a dick move but Turms. Put Turms in a cage with Geno and Ty and see what shakes.
Verelios
Were-elios
I'm okay with a wildcard and it seems we all want Stan as amlm pick.
Verelios
Were-elios
Maybe I'd want to get Geno. He has good instincts, but that's not what makes me want to off him. He's very on point when he has a target, and if it's not one of us then great, he'll tunnel a townie to hell and make sure to kick them off the ledge. If it is one of us then it's very hard to change his mind and get him to switch course. Similar to Sorian when ge's on your ass every day, every other post but he's much more driven while Sorian is very laid back.
Verelios
Were-elios
Hm, you think Leo could be protected?
No I don't think he would be protected at all. He has shown good signs in his games but still a bit too new to earn a D1 protection.
Verelios
Were-elios
That's quite a good point.
Verelios
Were-elios
Good list, but going for VA this early scares me.
I think N1 is like, the only night where we can be completely bold, so let's get crazy.
I was going through and trying to game out who I thought each person would be the most likely to protect which didn't work because I just kept putting in my thoughts instead. I think on my list he would be 5th or 6th (Hawthorn, Kyan, Sorian, Vere, and then Terra & VA). It's risky which is why I had him 3rd on the list, but I think the odds would be in our favor.
I'm also laughing thinking that the doc put their orders in during the first hour of the night and we're just WIFOM'ing for 20 hours.
I'm also laughing thinking that the doc put their orders in during the first hour of the night and we're just WIFOM'ing for 20 hours.
Kyanrute
kyan-rute
I can accept a Terra gamble. Should be a higher-than-average chance that he gets protected but I don't think he is an omnipresent protection target.
I somewhat wanted to keep Geno around for a day at least, he often either becomes the public enemy number one from the get-go or people just forget about him and accept him as town. But he certainly can be rather unwavering with his targets and the moment he starts to look this way I'd want to kill him anyway.
We could secure a kill by shooting Blarg but I don't see what else we achieve with that pick. He can be a wildcard, sure, but oft his antics end up harming his own credibility too. I also think there is some merit in keeping Blarg and nin around as possible Vigi targets. PR Blarg can be spooky but right now everyone is a possible PR.
I somewhat wanted to keep Geno around for a day at least, he often either becomes the public enemy number one from the get-go or people just forget about him and accept him as town. But he certainly can be rather unwavering with his targets and the moment he starts to look this way I'd want to kill him anyway.
We could secure a kill by shooting Blarg but I don't see what else we achieve with that pick. He can be a wildcard, sure, but oft his antics end up harming his own credibility too. I also think there is some merit in keeping Blarg and nin around as possible Vigi targets. PR Blarg can be spooky but right now everyone is a possible PR.
Kyanrute
kyan-rute
I keep spinning around on this. Perhaps we should scan for the doc with the kills and just go for two high-priority targets. A missed kill turns into a certain kill on the night after. It's very much a optimist play though as should we lose one of us early, the missed kill will come back to haunt us.
Or we could could kick the can down the road and leave room for the doc to fuck up. Should probably just do that and assume that we are picking the doc targets correctly. Thus the assumed doc target of night N turns into an attractive kill on night N+1.
Or we could could kick the can down the road and leave room for the doc to fuck up. Should probably just do that and assume that we are picking the doc targets correctly. Thus the assumed doc target of night N turns into an attractive kill on night N+1.
Verelios
Were-elios
Shooting blind is suprisingly hard. I'm going to laugh if like Hedin said the doc chose their target in the first few hours and it was one of us.
But real talk, now that it was mentioned, maybe it's a good idea to target a high priority kill just so we have the option of a sure kill N2 and won't waste time gambling on if they'll be protected. Best case scenario is that both shots go through tonight. Worst case scenario is only one shot goes through tonight, but we catch two N2. I think in a game with a doc and parity cop those odds are fine.
But real talk, now that it was mentioned, maybe it's a good idea to target a high priority kill just so we have the option of a sure kill N2 and won't waste time gambling on if they'll be protected. Best case scenario is that both shots go through tonight. Worst case scenario is only one shot goes through tonight, but we catch two N2. I think in a game with a doc and parity cop those odds are fine.
Verelios
Were-elios
I'm fine with either of these since I'm confident our hit on Stan goes through.
Personally on N1like this without a previous day phase to get any reads I would likely target a prominent meta townie as my first target. After that it depends on what I would see in the thread. If we're worried about a possible hit there then I would remove Sorian and Hawthorn I think from the top and shift down to Terra and VA.
Verelios
Were-elios
Ugh, Monkey has been proselytiziIng creating a town core recently which is fast becoming meta, but I'd think there are two factors a cop will look at N1. Who is scary with an unknown alignment, and who cam be a big help down the line. They likely won't be considering their NK survivability even though they should. I'd say Sorian has a good chance of being one of the first two targets, as do you Kyan. At the same tier but lower in priority is Blarg, Nin, Turms and Hawthorn who are often miskills who might be second targets. Now the second tier that will be used for comparison probably comes from the middle pack and this will be a wild card. I don't see a town cop choosing from here FIRST but they likely will second or third.
Kyanrute
kyan-rute
Wild option: Sorian and Hawthorn.
Likely my preferred option: Stan and Terra.
AM SCAWED :((( must get kills~ option: Stan and not-Sorian/Hawthorn/Terra/VA.
I wouldn't kill VA yet because while I think he will eventually become a widely town read nuisance, I think we should give him the opportunity to misplay. It likely won't happen, but killing him just ascertains that outcome.
Verelios
Were-elios
No objections here.
Kyanrute
kyan-rute
The theoretical possibilities for fake claims in a game without flips are fun, but all of them are hard to pull of in a meaningful manner. If we one of us finds ourselves in a bad position, a cop claim might buy a day or pull out the real cop. A doc claim under a hammer that is a vote or two away from swinging down might also work. Direct fake counterclaims can lead into 1:1 what is always better than just dying alone. Vigi is a no-no claim before the real Vigi shoots.
All in all, some situational stuff again.
All in all, some situational stuff again.
Verelios
Were-elios
Yep, it's actually best to leave the claimed doc alone so we can CC whenever, haha.
nin
Sorian
Ty4on
Terra
Hawthorn
Vere
Leo
Geno
Blargonaut
Hedin
turm
VA
Kyanrute
COP
- [MINT] Blargonaut
- [INDIGO] Verelios
- [RED] Leo
> MEDIC
- [BROWN] Kyanrute
- [BLACK] Hawthorn
> VIGILANTE
- [CYAN] Zippedpinhead (formerly Vincent Alexander)
- [BLUE] Ty4on
- [ORANGE] MrHedin
- [WHITE] turmoil7
- [LIME] Terraforce
- [PURPLE] Sorian
> UNSORTED PERSONNEL
- [MAROON] nin
- [GREEN] Geno
Yep, it was a good move by him. I don't think we can go after Hawthorn and if we go after someone in the cop group it would have to be Blarg.
I was definitely wrong about Terra, you both called that.
Verelios
Were-elios
Blarg is definitely a protect target even though I think there's a possibility he's actually the vig and fucking with us.
Kyanrute
kyan-rute
I'd shoot Terra and Geno. Terra is a secure kill. I think Geno is the doc (forgot to mention #403, that seems like an admission to me). Both are capable players when they get to it, but the downside with the kills is that neither of the two really yet got to it because of the weekend phase. Geno in particular is a painful kill even if I am right about him being the doc as his low presence makes him a possible ejection pick. But I expect that with the next day being on a weekday, both would be more active and thus more of a concern.
Even if I had to offer alternatives, I'd really want to keep Terra on board still. I'd keep Hawthorn and nin in play as ejection candidates. Turm and Ty too, there might be some potential there. Doc absolutely could protect Blarg. That leaves Leo, Sorian and Zipped. Leo didn't really get any heat so he is not an impossible protection target. Sorian only gets protected if doc is trying to juke us and Geno could pull that move. Zipped is the sole clear alternative I see. Ty would be my 2nd alternative.
I hope I managed to convince the vigi to shoot and claim, that'd take care of that issue for us. Did you see any cop crumbs? A parity cop could start crumbing as early as D1. I saw nothing, but might as well go through the thread again before tomorrow since it's so short.
Even if I had to offer alternatives, I'd really want to keep Terra on board still. I'd keep Hawthorn and nin in play as ejection candidates. Turm and Ty too, there might be some potential there. Doc absolutely could protect Blarg. That leaves Leo, Sorian and Zipped. Leo didn't really get any heat so he is not an impossible protection target. Sorian only gets protected if doc is trying to juke us and Geno could pull that move. Zipped is the sole clear alternative I see. Ty would be my 2nd alternative.
I hope I managed to convince the vigi to shoot and claim, that'd take care of that issue for us. Did you see any cop crumbs? A parity cop could start crumbing as early as D1. I saw nothing, but might as well go through the thread again before tomorrow since it's so short.
Maybe Ty or Turmoil. Maybe reading into the emoji too much but a vig crumb maybe?
I didn't pick up anything obvious with a cop yet.
I didn't pick up anything obvious with a cop yet.
Verelios
Were-elios
I didn't see anything but I don't know if parity cop crumbs at this time. They usually do it when they get at least one match, so it's possible they're holding out.
I agree with the T&G kill. My next priority would be Leo as a semi-high risk kill, Sorian as a high risk and Zipped as a no risk kill. @Hedin what do you think?
I agree with the T&G kill. My next priority would be Leo as a semi-high risk kill, Sorian as a high risk and Zipped as a no risk kill. @Hedin what do you think?
Kyanrute
kyan-rute
That's true. I guess only people who fancy crumbing would do it before two checks.
Often he just fakes things out of thin air and I'd guess he was just obfuscating things for the heck of it. As a self-centered idiot I did slightly entertain the idea that he thought that I was crumbing doc when I opened with doc should not claim the green because they can't prevent the death of the person they protected.
...ouch both Blarg and Leo are in cop group with just Vere. Ouch me when Hawthorn dies.
Ty's scum list sans Swamped:
-Sorian: Knows who the doc is, weird Terra interaction, Hawthorn unforced error.
-Hawthorn: First to bring up only one kill, fair bit of setup speculation.
-Leo: Starts with setup speculation, really nothing but setup speculation and Blarg plan. Seems to miss the number of town PRs.
-Geno: Only making a few drive-by comments on the game.
-MrHedin: Thinks Terra town because it puts eyes on him if done on purpose.
He later started to town read Leo and was at least a bit sympathetic towards Hedin and Hawthorn. Ty wouldn't necessarily catch the Geno-doc, but surely he could not resist shooting Sorian?
Verelios
Were-elios
Hmmm, I don't know if Ty takes a shot at Sorian. It's possible, but I'm not seeing it.
This depends on what kind of player they are. If I'm the cop then I'll want to check either Kyan or Hawthorn tonight to see if they're trustworthy.
Kyanrute
kyan-rute
How about Geno and Ty? If we are correct about them both being PRs, that's the best thing we can reasonably get tonight. If Geno is the doctor, that info dies with him and Terra doesn't get green checked through the save. If Ty is the vigi, he will turn into a soft-confirmed townie once he shoots, claims and doesn't get counterclaimed. The fastest way to deal with that is to kill him before he gets to say a word.
Though missing the vigi isn't that bad imo. Assuming they shoot and claim, we "just" kill them tomorrow. They will be a nuisance for a day if they manage to get into town's good graces and assert themselves as a pseudo-green through no counterclaims but that's all.
Though missing the vigi isn't that bad imo. Assuming they shoot and claim, we "just" kill them tomorrow. They will be a nuisance for a day if they manage to get into town's good graces and assert themselves as a pseudo-green through no counterclaims but that's all.
Verelios
Were-elios
Geno and Ty is a good choice. Riskier but you're right that it might cause the doc to rethink their check on Terra, although I'm not sure for how long. At least he'll be under some suspicion. There aren't many ways to stop a kill and it's highly improbable that scum didn't shoot twice N1. It's possible, just very WIFOM. I'm good with that kill.
Verelios
Were-elios
Likely. Maybe Leo and Hawthorn too, Geno likes to be mysterious and those are two I think he'd protect.
Kyanrute
kyan-rute
Yeah, that's the question. Missing a kill would be bad. Geno had no public reads, that doesn't help. I'd assume that scum would want to secure kills and I feel that Geno might not be as conservative of a doctor as some would be. I feel he could just ignore the top townies (scum won't hit them because they are afraid of the doc) and instead choose to protect a tier two kill target. Ty's interest in all things GUN is not that hard to see either.
I think I fall back to my previous stance of Geno and Terra.
I think I fall back to my previous stance of Geno and Terra.
Verelios
Were-elios
This is true. I don't think we'll be so unlucky that he's the cop so we can spread the love around before going back to Terra.
Verelios
Were-elios
I doubt Hawthorn is the doc. It makes no sense for the doc to actually claim as it were.
Verelios
Were-elios
Oh snap, that will be quite a sight. If we killed Ty the WIFOM would be delicious.
Faddy
of, having, or involving transitory whims
RECEIVED
Verelios
Were-elios
Bus, always.
Verelios
Were-elios
To add on, both the cop and the check have got to go. There are no flips. We're tainted at that point and unless we have the tongue of god it's lie down and get hit time.
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