Scooby Doo 2: Mafia Unleashed - This time there are costumes!

[Snow Ghost]

Day start looks like an ignition and a Hyde kill to me. I can buy the idea of a unorthodox multi-ignite last man standing Arsonist. Brother Occam has me thinking that scum blocked Arso on N1 and know who they are- naaah the Frank kill + gassing is likely the better idea. Besides claim and shot-tracking, the only thing that matters here is that we have what, two to three mistakes we can make? Cool.

Alien promises and underdelivers. Boo is refactoring again. I like neither.

@Woodsman please combine your D2 Char analysis with the rest and offer your conclusions: how did people react to the gossip claim, who dropped the suspicion credibly and who did not, who ignored the matter, who were too eager to get aboard Stan's case against Char etc. Char was more than just the train that struggled to leave the station.

 

[Snow Creature]

Well with Hydes flip it turns out it's not relevant anymore. But at the time of rereading it was. At most it makes you look worse because that means one less person in the PoE.

Fair enough. So what did you make of Lightning on a reread then?

 

[Snow Creature]

The Ghost of Stealing Stan

Gnome laid some tracks and made moves to push Stan. It does not feel like a red versus red type of a thing. Also, there is only like a single person who’d write a D4 opening post like that against his mates and…I don’t know if there’s a match here or not.

Hell, I could see that being a bus. I really feel it could be. Stan’s position wasn’t too strong before D4 and Char was fully reliant on the gossip clear. I don’t think today is the day for this, far from it, but please keep this in mind for endgame and endgame minus one if Stan still lives. I know it would be a dangerous gambit to make, but think of the town cred you get from that. And some scum just don’t minmax their plays, some go for the funnies, fully aware that it can backfire heavily. Fuck. If I start thinking him as scum, the way he bend over when he got some heat over the Boo read becomes more concerning again.

Medium town to oh no, depending on the days to come.

On Stan, I give him more credit than you. I like the healthy suspicion because it's not a 100% free pass, but there's something about the logic of Stan bussing Char that doesn't seem right. Stan came with a lot of receipts. He picked apart Char's claim thoroughly, picking up on small details. If this was a scum ploy, it would take a hell of a lot of planning. Like, Char would have to leave those crumbs for Stan to pick up on purposefully.

I just don't know if I see them going to such lengths as to dissect one of their own for credibility. Occam's makes me think the same as with Snack - this is just town doing the work.

 

[Snow Creature]

Words.

I appreciate the effort. Also made me realise I'm dumb and can't count to 13 (thought we were on 12).

But where does this lead you? What do you gain from this? Where are you looking?

 

[Neon Phantom]

I'm trying to work out the best way to get across the point that at this point I'm finding myself somewhat suspicious of Lightning.
I figure the best way is just to say it: I am suspicious of Lightning.

Scum Char either drops Jman from the claim in order to look more natural (it is townies who make mistakes after all), or it was just a honest mistake in a grand fake claim.

I think in my head I had jman as jman and not as lightning and is why I keep mentioning him but didn't guess him. Like yeah not that you guys reminded me I'm gonna guess jman tomorrow, it really just went over my head.

The stupid thing is, this is probably what made the light switch flip after seeing Char's flip.
Honest mistake is an explanation for the claim weirdness.

But what if they were teammates?

Char's fake claim was "I have to think about people's names" so he literally chose people he was thinking about.
Lightning isn't one of them.
If Lightning isn't Jman he knows it's a lie. If Lightning is Jman, he's been referring to him as that in scum chat and game both.
Maybe he didn't blank on him for claim purposes in spite of all the times his name had been used, maybe he blanked on him because of them. He skipped the one he knew.

I erred town on him before despite feeling uneasy about the push to mask off, because of the way his posts felt. Reactive. Interactive. Sincere. But the uneasiness never quite shifted, and considering how awful my early reads were re-evaluating them isn't going to do any harm.

Lightning's first posts in the thread were pushes to mass claim, and our other known scum members have also baited identity discussion.

His defense of himself following Boo's rather weak vote on him was hostile and overblown (I still agree with the actual reasoning mind you, and need to revisit Boo myself).

Definitive statements about Ghost Bear being a wrong vote. Certainty expressed without reasoning.
Similar definitive statements about Snacks check that even if it was wrong Town were never going to vote him out.

THAT whole end of day claim thing. I'm admittedly loathed to even go near that.

The "has anyone claimed" post and the attempt to follow it up when nobody answered. The whole "do you really think I'd do this if I were scum" which I feel like I've seen more than once.

And then his reads. I don't actually think he's given any.
Yesterday he actively refused to give reads outside Woodsman.
If he were town he should want to share. To see what other people think. To convince people. To hunt. To ensure his reads don't die with him. If he feels like he's on to something, that should be a risk a town version of him should feel more aware of.

He went in on Boo for not pushing his vote more convincingly, but hasn't actually done the same himself, for anyone. If anything he did the opposite, pushing against voting out Char.
I don't feel like I've seen him push anything since Boo on D1. He gestures, he votes, he called out nobody following him on a vote on one of the Snows at one point, but he didn't actually explain or push or work things through. He just backed off and went elsewhere.

It doesn't sit right with me.
It doesn't feel right.

 

[Snow Ghost]

1) Sans went hard in the paint on Anthos all of D1, in fact - she demonstrates throughout her play a doggedness for tossing out scumreads; however, her town reads are almost all just quick statements and moving on - here's an example on SSM. Say what you will about meta blah blah blah, but even those of you who haven't figured out who she is can probably pick up on the fact that she is by no means a newbie. She references plenty of meta, has plucked out who lots of players were, and has been a vocal player all game. Yet she is mostly just focused on tossing scumreads out left and right. Why?

2) Next up though we have Sans turning around and lambasting Stan (who is almost certainly lock town given the results of last day phase) shit for going after an easy target, which, like, sure I think it was a bad vote (on Boo if you're too lazy to look); however, this is Sans shading someone for an easy vote while being the person that whipped the thread into an Anthos vote D1 primarily off the back of Anthos not having much thread presence - aka an easy vote. What does Sans do with the remainder of this day phase?

3) Pushes people along on Ghost Bear, which became a bit of a given as the day progressed - a vote I don't think anyone would argue was "hard". Strange to tear one player down for making an easy vote while...being the leading cause for an easy vote D1 and encouraging another easy vote. But encouragement is where it ends.

4) Sans avoids hopping on that wagon. Now you may be thinking, sure, if scum why not just plop on Ghost Bear? It's not like she was hiding her apparent thoughts on him. Anyone could go back and read it like I just did. But, honestly, we don't always do that. I mean I personally hate doing big ISOs because it's so fucking exhausting. I tend to go for vote analysis (but, uh, kinda hard to do with how most of these phases have gone lol).

5) This comes after CCG came in and claimed to be the N1 gossip target. Taking the gradual heat that CCG had from the previous phase and immediately shifting it right onto Kook. Also leaves the ability to still tie Kook and CCG together should CCG's fake out be blown out of the water. Whether Geno's claim N1 was a complete gamble or influenced by info from Tech we don't know, but there isn't any way they could know for sure what would happen - this leaves avenues for Sans to pivot based on the outcome (something you'll see later). This is also a strategy I have used plenty of times as scum - if you might have to bus a scummate at some point, it's a great strategy to draw imaginary connections from them to a town player. That way even if you drop one, you can easily use that to chain into a townie. Mafia 101 here folks.

6 )This is the bit that was keyed upon by Neon last phase that I still think is one of the most damning bits. Sans is a smart player, has made plenty of callbacks both within this game and to other games, but apparently fabricated an entire conversation and when pressed on it she simply "doesn't know" how the mistake was made. Gosh, if only there was another thread where scum would almost certainly have immediately talked about how to try and squirm out of a red check. I think this is just a super bad look.

7) Sans skirts around the theory on CCG for awhile, all while setting up possible alternatives to push - including beating that Kook drum some more. Sans doesn't engage much with the theory - doesn't take a strong stance either way, just general avoidance with a sprinkling of avenues to follow with regardless of the outcome.

1, 2, 3) I somewhat struggle to put it to words, but the nagging thought in my head during the early parts of the game was that Sans' play was too easy. The final touch was missing from it, and other such colorful wordplays. I somewhat agree in essence I guess.

4) I have this faint memory that at some point I liked the attempts at solving that Sans did around some of the day ends. Today is a good day to think about that, will get that done at some point.

5, 7) That's one of the bigger things that bothered me too, how Sans skirted around Char. That and the loose Gnome connection with both being fine with each other.

6) The post I think is a good one and I even agreed with it. Gnome looked bad to me when he went straight to the claim instead of trying to argue that a mistake was made. The possibility that they both could be town was unthinkable to him. That's not how Sans saw it though and there certainly is a hint of knowing too much there. The "I don't recall" today is not good. It ain't a smoking gun though so I give a very limited amount of fucks about it overall.

I think the authenticity of the downtime hunting is what either makes or breaks the case for me. I'll look into it.

On Stan, I give him more credit than you. I like the healthy suspicion because it's not a 100% free pass, but there's something about the logic of Stan bussing Char that doesn't seem right. Stan came with a lot of receipts. He picked apart Char's claim thoroughly, picking up on small details. If this was a scum ploy, it would take a hell of a lot of planning. Like, Char would have to leave those crumbs for Stan to pick up on purposefully.

I just don't know if I see them going to such lengths as to dissect one of their own for credibility. Occam's makes me think the same as with Snack - this is just town doing the work.

Char needed to plan nothing and do as much. Char's crumbs misplays had been picked up by many, that's why he had received the attention he did. If town is worried about him, scum surely are aware of the issue. I for one felt that Char's existence was fully reliant on the gossip claim and if scum shared my view or felt that the view could become mainstream soon enough, some madder sort of scummies might've entertained the grand bus option. I am not saying that scum were worried about me, but that they might've seen Char's death an eventuality in the near future.

If thought in the context of the events though, you are correct to say that it is not very likely. Most people were keen on accepting Char as a trustworthy townie, why go against the trend? I don't think everyone would go for the easy option though and I'd like people to keep that in mind in case Stan makes it to endgame. Not like he suddenly becomes an automatic vote even then, just that any town reads on him should not at that point be fully based on that one pre-write. I've bussed my fair share in past games and it has been useful from time to time. In addition, I know there is at least a single person who'd love a gambit like this. A reach, certainly, but I'll not ignore it.

One thing that I completely forgot though was Char's reaction, I was reading Stan after all... Yeah, I don't think it does anything to me. I can't tell how much of the anger is genuine, although I don't think his reaction outright shows that he was in on it. I almost want to say the opposite even, but the man knows how to write anger.

 

[Snow Creature]

Also, for transparency and because I wasn't clear in my big posts from yesterday, here's where my head's at reads wise after thinking about and rereading D4:

Strong town
Wax
Stan
Captain Skunkbeard
Snow Ghost

Light town
Pazzo
Lightning
Boo

(Pazzo in particular has dropped a little because I want to reread; they're a bit of a blindspot and I need to make sure I've not missed anything)

I don't know
Neon
Sans

(I'm so worried about being duped by Sans lol. And there are some Neon posts I like but don't know where they fit in everything)

Scum leans
Kook
Alien
Woodsman

(I think one of the quieter ones is likely scum, so I want to spend some time today figuring out which. It's why I'm needling Woodsman so much)

 

[Lightning Strikes]

In defense of Lightning Strikes.

But what if they were teammates?

Char's fake claim was "I have to think about people's names" so he literally chose people he was thinking about.
Lightning isn't one of them.
If Lightning isn't Jman he knows it's a lie. If Lightning is Jman, he's been referring to him as that in scum chat and game both.
Maybe he didn't blank on him for claim purposes in spite of all the times his name had been used, maybe he blanked on him because of them. He skipped the one he knew.

I will say this and this is not really defending myself as it was CGG's play he did on his own. I would be pretty pissed at CGG if he was my teammate for not including me in his fake claim. That was some embarrassing amateur hour shit. Hell I was second hand embarrassed and I am town. Its terrible gameplay that I would discourage if I was in a chat with him.

Lightning's first posts in the thread were pushes to mass claim, and our other known scum members have also baited identity discussion.

Huge mistake by me. I Never played a costume game. If I understood how these things worked I would not have done this. Big Noob mistake out of the gates.

The whole "do you really think I'd do this if I were scum" which I feel like I've seen more than once.

This is how I Post. Look back at past games I always analyze what I would or would not do as scum. NAI or even slight town lean on this type of behavior as it's normal me.

To ensure his reads don't die with him. If he feels like he's on to something, that should be a risk a town version of him should feel more aware of.

I'm not on to anything town would not realize themselves if I died. When I get unique reads or theory I do make sure its mentioning before day end incase I die.

He gestures, he votes, he called out nobody following him on a vote on one of the Snows at one point, but he didn't actually explain or push or work things through. He just backed off and went elsewhere.

My scum read of snow turned into slight town read over time. I have liked there post over the last 2 days.

I pushed CGG hard and I pushed Gnome hard I know this does not count since they are both obvious but I push people who I ended up "Voting for" hard every day like normal. I'm sure someone today will get that push.

It doesn't sit right with me.
It doesn't feel right.

I understand the uneasiness this is my weakest performance in a while.

There will be a lot of misplay for me to dissect after the game is over.

On the bright side I am learning more about mafia this game than any other game in a while so I am confident my gameplay will improve in the future.

 

[Woodsman]

We just had a game where Scum used their night kill on one of their own for Town cred, so there's really no limit for the busing meta. Snack was shot right after outing Scum while Stan is still alive.
To be clear, I don't think Stan is Scum at this point, but I wouldn't dismiss it entirely.

 

[Snow Ghost]

I erred town on him before despite feeling uneasy about the push to mask off, because of the way his posts felt. Reactive. Interactive. Sincere. But the uneasiness never quite shifted, and considering how awful my early reads were re-evaluating them isn't going to do any harm.

Lightning's first posts in the thread were pushes to mass claim, and our other known scum members have also baited identity discussion.

His defense of himself following Boo's rather weak vote on him was hostile and overblown (I still agree with the actual reasoning mind you, and need to revisit Boo myself).

Definitive statements about Ghost Bear being a wrong vote. Certainty expressed without reasoning.
Similar definitive statements about Snacks check that even if it was wrong Town were never going to vote him out.

THAT whole end of day claim thing. I'm admittedly loathed to even go near that.

The "has anyone claimed" post and the attempt to follow it up when nobody answered. The whole "do you really think I'd do this if I were scum" which I feel like I've seen more than once.

And then his reads. I don't actually think he's given any.
Yesterday he actively refused to give reads outside Woodsman.
If he were town he should want to share. To see what other people think. To convince people. To hunt. To ensure his reads don't die with him. If he feels like he's on to something, that should be a risk a town version of him should feel more aware of.

He went in on Boo for not pushing his vote more convincingly, but hasn't actually done the same himself, for anyone. If anything he did the opposite, pushing against voting out Char.
I don't feel like I've seen him push anything since Boo on D1. He gestures, he votes, he called out nobody following him on a vote on one of the Snows at one point, but he didn't actually explain or push or work things through. He just backed off and went elsewhere.

It doesn't sit right with me.
It doesn't feel right.

"That's the man behind the mask." I am willing to trust him with most of these things. Even though things might seem odd on the surface, is he being nefarious? I don't think so. The things and the ways he has done them might be unorthodox, but I think they are done in order to show what he thinks. I don't feel that he does them to manipulate people or in order to steer things into bad directions. If he is doing that, he is not doing it in a too impactful way at all.

He should be more public with his reads though, you are right. It is a time to be rather open with your opinions and passivity is a burden on everyone.

@Lightning Strikes who were the retracted scum reads of yours from yesterday or whenever? They still scum?

 

[Lightning Strikes]

@Lightning Strikes who were the retracted scum reads of yours from yesterday or whenever? They still scum?

I believe Alien and Baby Yoga.

Alien: Yes my vote is currently there as he has continued looking sus.

Baby Yoga:No my read is now town LOL

 

[Neon Phantom]

This is how I Post. Look back at past games I always analyze what I would or would not do as scum. NAI or even slight town lean on this type of behavior as it's normal me.

I have to smile a little at the brazenness of declaring your own behaviour a town lean.

I see what you say, I see what SnowG says. I'm sold on neither but I'll consider it as I keep working.

 

[Snow Ghost]

VOTE: BooBeard

Held Char up his sleeve for multiple days, always paying attention to him and even suspecting him, but never pushing the read.

 

[Neon Phantom]

well there's our arsonist, and i notice they seem not to have won & left the game so they'll probably be dousing again tonight.

based on the flips plus what re reading i was able to get done:

TOWN:
-Wax Phantom, confirmed by Hyde's flip
-Lightning. partly his posts, but also this post from gnome:



you don't put two scum mates in there when you know you might get voted off. too risky.

Just to pull this out, Gnome stuck the "need to know names" clause into his fake claim too, so it's not an issue of who is best to check (for supposedly being the dog he was) it's who he'd shown himself to have knowledge of. He just avoided making the mistake Char did.

It's actually a bit weirder that Char made that mistake when Gnome avoided it unless they're just bullshitting their own claims independently rather than workshopping them together.

 

[San Franpsycho]

Which is entirely possible. There's no telling - it's one of the reasons rolling off assumptions can bite us in the ass.

I'm thinking through Kook and Woodsman this morning, but I have some meetings. I'll be around after.

 

[Neon Phantom]

I dont think Geno is the arsonist. It's very possible he is but this is a 24 player game slander the odds of having 2 neutral players is high.

Trying to engage with the maths of where we sit right now. 13 players alive with likely 3 scum (Daphne, Fred and Velma). Presumably there'll be a couple neutrals as well (worst case two I guess but no point speculating there).

You're proposing five total scum, PLUS two neutrals?

Doesn't that sound like a lot of anti-town power when our dead are lower on the power scale?

Scooby and Shaggy between them could have caused some minor mayhem if they were alive. Scooby could have redacted flips of town and scum alike (but would have had to pass up on a switch to do so).
Shaggy if he knew he was on the chopping block but given One More Day could have stolen an account and that would effectively have played out as an extra kill that wastes a day (one extra town on top of the nk removed from the game at night by him replacing them, then we need to kill the new account?)

Now we've got an Arsonist who doesn't die with their targets.

I assume because of said vanilla cop at least one of the scum team is probably a goon, but still.

That still leaves the pair of you proposing 2-3 more empowered evils.

That's ~30% of the roster, that's way on the high side, no? Even if the neutral/s need to be equal opportunity murderers.

Yes yes, mechanics speculation is bad and time waste-y, I know. I don't plan to harp on it further, it's just considering that as what we're looking for feels quite daunting.

Is it possible the Arsonist is just scum? Have to pass up on the nk to ignite? (That would rely on Wax not being mistaken about Hyde being doused, of course, because Hyde told us they weren't).
Not that the idea of the scum team being able to stack up more extra kills that way isn't just as daunting.

 

[Neon Phantom]

Also as a little bonus

All of CGGs interactions (specifically quoted posts) with living players
(I'll compare this to Gnome in the morning)

Snow Ghost - 3
Neon - 1
Kook - 4
Woods - 8
Lightning - 7
Sans - 2
Stan - 7
Snow Creature - 10
BooBeard - 1
Alien - 2
Wax - 2

0 interaction with Pazzo or Skunk.

I specifically checked and CGG never interacted with either of those players in any way shape or form.

Honestly seemed like CGG interacted with Baba more than everyone else combined. I may have missed a couple of interactions but I'm fairly sure this is accurate.

And with that I'm off to bed.

What made you decide to look at number of interactions? Was there something you were looking for? A suspicion you had?

Did you spot any notable interactions while you were counting?

 

[Alien]

That still leaves the pair of you proposing 2-3 more empowered evils.

That's ~30% of the roster, that's way on the high side, no? Even if the neutral/s need to be equal opportunity murderers.

Yes yes, mechanics speculation is bad and time waste-y, I know. I don't plan to harp on it further, it's just considering that as what we're looking for feels quite daunting.

Yeah in retrospect I think in all likelihood we are just looking at 5 scum. I was kinda just spitballing scenarios in that post.

What made you decide to look at number of interactions? Was there something you were looking for? A suspicion you had?

Did you spot any notable interactions while you were counting?

A few things certainly stand out. In particular the total lack of interaction with Pazzo who has stood out to me as one of the more active players. CGG never posted about the BooBeard situation which is also a little surprising, I intend to look into Gnome's interactions. If any of the concerns I see with CGG are reflected in Gnome's posting I'll certainly be vocal about them

I'll get a more in depth post out once I'm off work.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

You're proposing five total scum, PLUS two neutrals?

5 scum and 1 or 2 neutrals is my best guess.

Remember not all neutrals are killing roles

 

[San Franpsycho]

Alien, did you get a chance to answer my questions to you? I'm reading back and have not seen them yet - link me if you did?

 

[San Franpsycho]

5 scum and 1 or 2 neutrals is my best guess.

Remember not all neutrals are killing roles

Why are you so convinced there is a nonlethal neutral in this game? There's no evidence for it, no signs, why even bother? What does this speculation do to help?

 

[BooBeard]

Okay here's where my head is at today, whatever it's worth:

Town:
Wax Phantom
Lightning Strikes
The Ghost of Stealin Stan

Town-lean:
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
Captain Skunkbeard
Snow Ghost

Neutral:
Spooky Space Kook
Alien
Neon Phantom
Snow Creature

Scum-lean:
San Franpsycho
Woodsman

There's no sorting within the tiers. After sleeping on it I really am suspecting San now. It would help explain their constant fighting with Baba, who flipped town. I don't believe San is the arsonist, I think they are likely scum but if not they are town. Their flip will decide if I pursue Woodsman tomorrow. I am okay with a Woodsman kill today if we decide to pursue that route instead but I would go for San first.

Vote: San Franpsycho

I still need to do a whole thread re-read with the new knowledge gained from the recent flips. Work is really tough lately and I've been feeling under the weather, but I won't let that be an excuse.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

Why are you so convinced there is a nonlethal neutral in this game? There's no evidence for it, no signs, why even bother? What does this speculation do to help?

Does not help at all.

Also does not hurt all.

I'm literally just answering a question someone asked me.

 

[San Franpsycho]

There's no sorting within the tiers. After sleeping on it I really am suspecting San now. It would help explain their constant fighting with Baba, who flipped town. I don't believe San is the arsonist, I think they are likely scum but if not they are town. Their flip will decide if I pursue Woodsman tomorrow. I am okay with a Woodsman kill today if we decide to pursue that route instead but I would go for San first.

Why would I openly fight with people? Because it worked so well for Char that I would be like YEAH FULL STEAM AHEAD? C'mon, man.

 

[San Franpsycho]

Does not help at all.

Also does not hurt all.

I'm literally just answering a question someone asked me.

Well, to you, to them, to everyone:
We know there's mafia; we know there's an arsonist. We know the game skews to a fair number of vanillas. We know costume fuckery was possible but one person is dead and there's no other sign of it. Regardless of what Pazzo says, we know there's precedent for games to use names so don't throw them out.

Beyond that, I don't see what good mechanics discussion does for us here. It's busywork (token truffleshuffle). We're not even halfway done and we can't yet see the full structure of the game. Don't get sucked in.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

Well, to you, to them, to everyone:
We know there's mafia; we know there's an arsonist. We know the game skews to a fair number of vanillas. We know costume fuckery was possible but one person is dead and there's no other sign of it. Regardless of what Pazzo says, we know there's precedent for games to use names so don't throw them out.

Beyond that, I don't see what good mechanics discussion does for us here. It's busywork (token truffleshuffle). We're not even halfway done and we can't yet see the full structure of the game. Don't get sucked in.

Like I said I was just answering a question.

Whether there is or is not neutrals does not really change how scum hunting is handled.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

Well, to you

Like this part is unnecessary when I have not gotten into mechanic discussion with people this game. Why did I get singled out and not the person who asked me?

 

[San Franpsycho]

Like this part is unnecessary when I have not gotten into mechanic discussion with people this game. Why did I get singled out and not the person who asked me?

Because you've clearly been itching to claim for days and it's odd to see you focus then on the idea of an extra neutral.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

Because you've clearly been itching to claim for days and it's odd to see you focus then on the idea of an extra neutral.

Why would I want to claim if I was a neutral?

Unless I'm misinterpreting what your insinuation.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

I'm town friends not neutral. I have no extra information that any of you have.

 

[Snow Creature]

Why would I openly fight with people? Because it worked so well for Char that I would be like YEAH FULL STEAM AHEAD? C'mon, man.

lol

I haven't done a full reread of you yet, but come on, you definitely have a more... shall we say "upfront" approach with people. You have to admit that.

When I do a reread, I'll totally make a section called "Sans' beefs" for you.

 

[Alien]

Alien, did you get a chance to answer my questions to you? I'm reading back and have not seen them yet - link me if you did?

Sorry not yet, I'll respond to your post as soon as I get the chance.

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

On rereading sans, i don’t see the non towny behavior some of you are paranoid about.

Her towniness is inversely related to her ability to make good reads in early game ;P and her early reads were terrible.

her inaccurate semantic argument with gnome doesn’t look a planned scummate argument, it’s too stupid for that, a real argument would be about some of gnome’s worse gameplay in a different manner imo. Plus saying the words came from scum chat doesn’t really make sense because of the way discussion unfolded, there’s no phrase in the middle of the argument that could have been in another place.

Also she hasn’t had many posts of wall of text that make my eyes glaze over, which is what i associate with her scum game. Other people did that.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

I also feel San is probably town.

 

[San Franpsycho]

Let's recap

lol

I haven't done a full reread of you yet, but come on, you definitely have a more... shall we say "upfront" approach with people. You have to admit that.

When I do a reread, I'll totally make a section called "Sans' beefs" for you.

Sure. Now go back and look at the last time I was mafia, in MGS. Was I fighting with people in the same way?

I'm cranky and irritable as a person, but I am far, far less open about it when I'm mafia unless I let myself get baited, because agreeable people live longer.

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

So, Alien.
claims bored vanilla, plays pretty much as a bored vanilla. There’s probably a goon in the game or maybe 2.

Jumps ahead of a friend on d1, i don’t think alien is the arsonist, that would be counterproductive.

has been coasting too much to get a read really. All their reads lists have been mixed, they have largely felt not-good about our 2 flipped scum. If they’re town, they should do another because clearly they can spot non-town and should play properly.

Not much real interaction with anyone, including our flipped scums. Just appears and drops a read and goes away, but at least votes. Don’t see a clear scumtell so i’ll store them for now under null.

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

*if the arsonist is a neutral, which i do think is true i guess, rather than a scum bonus-killing role.

 

[San Franpsycho]

I am about half done with a longer post but now my computer is updating because it doesn’t like any of the three mice I tried so I’m having a day over here. I’ll post it when I can.

 

[Neon Phantom]

@BooBeard

Okay here's where my head is at today, whatever it's worth:

Town:

Wax Phantom
Lightning Strikes
The Ghost of Stealin Stan

Town-lean:
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
Captain Skunkbeard
Snow Ghost

Neutral:
Spooky Space Kook
Alien
Neon Phantom
Snow Creature

Scum-lean:
San Franpsycho
Woodsman

I want to pull out a few of these to try and understand how your reads are progressing.

Town: Lightning Strikes
Before he was a null heaped in wariness and suspicion for you.

This is weird and I want to talk about it. If he is scum and he knew how the flip would go, he could be trying to get townie cred for a really good “read”.

If he is town this is a ludicrously ballsy play. I’d like to see what others with more experience think. Can anyone chime in? Based on what I do know of jman, I could genuinely see him doing this in earnest as town. There’s always the possibility it is not the real jman but a RP, but I am choosing to believe he is telling the truth about that point. I'm sticking with a null read for now, I don't think this means much at all, but I was taken aback and I'd like some perspective.

The only answers I saw were from Kooks and Lightning himself.

It's fairly odd in general, but with the possibility of people being doused it could just be a sign of people about to go up in flames

I was Not trying to get credit I was trying to flip the vote to any other player besides Bear because it was Obvious to me he was Town.

Voting for myself was part of trying to Get Votes off bear and save him if I could.

Worst case scenario even if I am wrong and Bear is actually Scum. in that scenario maybe Scum would be incentive to try and kill me?

neither scenario worked happened as it was weak bait.

Plan was always a Long shot but better to try something then Let a town member just Die #NoRegrets

Did you find that convincing?
Yesterday was the Char vote, you were on that vote.
His reaction to it was wishy washy, he unvoted because Char was cooperating when he wasn't, he floated waiting on killing him.

Today you town read him. Strongly. What changed?

Town-lean: Skunkbeard

I still have a null read on Skunkbeard. They haven't posted a lot beyond memes, their two votes, and expressing their frustration. Their reasoning for voting Anthos wasn't detailed:

I am willing to excuse it for Day 1 though.

If they are scum, I don't believe they would be bussing Ghost Bear. Their vote was upfront for them at the beginning of today before Ghost Bear started getting attention, although Captain did not provide any detail behind their vote:

I'm gonna need more information before I get a strong scum read from them. If Ghost Bear is voted out I think their flip could help identify Skunkbeard.

Captain Skunkbeard:
-Like I said previously, suspicious, but I don't necessarily want to pursue this lead at this time

Also Skunkbeard.
Obviously I know what's changed here, New!Beard is more active.
Has their content played a role as well or is it just that you no longer feel like they're a potential coast kill?

Neutral: Snow Creature

Later, Snow Creature specifically asks Gnome what they think about Cat, making sure to indicate that "oh hey anyone else can comment too". Just kinda feels off to me as an interaction:

Gnome follows this up with some nothing thoughts:

Nobody else responded to Snow Creature's inquiry, either.

So we've got a Gnome-Char connection and a Gnome-Snow Creature connection. What about a Char-Snow Creature connection?

Well, Snow Creature defended Char as well:

Snow Creature's interaction with Gnome isn't anything too spicy, but combined with Snow seeming to pocket Pazzo earlier in the game, I am definitely starting to get more of a scum lean:

More potential pocketing:

Final point of suspicion is that on Day 3, before Snack's reveal, they stated they wanted to get more into their thoughts on Skunkbeard *tomorrow*:

This never happened after Snack's reveal, which I can understand because we turbo'd. Perhaps they forgot, or perhaps they wanted to let attention be elsewhere? However, I'd like to get back to it. @Snow Creature would you like to get into your thoughts on the Captain?

Overall I'm getting a scum lean for Snow Creature. I'm still feeling the Char vote. If Char flips scum I think Snow Creature could be a next logical choice.

Why has yesterday's scum lean who you floated as your next logical voting choice now been raised out of your voting board?

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

I don't like that this theory about CGG has taken off so quickly. While there is maybe some merit to it, the way everybody just sucked it up doesn't sit right with me.

Woodsman has looked better today via actually posting, but this one stands out as a “gotta flip the slot” post. You don’t say there’s merit to a scum hunt argument and then refrain from voting accordingly.

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

Stan is all over the place but i conclude probably town. Doesn’t feel neutrally or scummy to me. No specific posts to pull out for it.

I really really miss threadmarks, finding day ends is impossible.

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

Oh they’re in the beginning. That’s good anyway, thanks A.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

he unvoted because Char was cooperating when he wasn't, he floated waiting on killing him.

Gotta call bullshit this simply is not true.

Char was 100% Cooperating when I uvoted him go back and look.

 

[Neon Phantom]

Gotta call bullshit this simply is not true.

Char was 100% Cooperating when I uvoted him go back and look.

He'd been talking, but he'd already stopped before you asked him those questions. You unvoted him for being cooperative at the same time you asked them, without giving him a chance to answer and actually be so.
His next post was hours later inviting everyone to lynch him, and five hours after he wrote that, still without him having answered your questions, you floated the idea of letting him live.

I might have overgeneralised but I think my summation was fair.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

He'd been talking, but he'd already stopped before you asked him those questions. You unvoted him for being cooperative at the same time you asked them, without giving him a chance to answer and actually be so.
His next post was hours later inviting everyone to lynch him, and five hours after he wrote that, still without him having answered your questions, you floated the idea of letting him live.

He was talking so I unvoted him this event is unrelated to the questions

Did not even notice the time it took for him to answer that specific set of questions but it really didn't matter he was obviously scum to everyone in the thread.

I floated the idea to let him live absolutely I I already explained why and stand by my thought Process.

I did want CGG to live I thought about it but my mind was always 85% kill today and 15% let him live a day.

will always explore all our options so I floated the idea to get a second opinion

I quickly saw the danger of letting CGG in particular live and Went to 100% kill today within 15 minutes.

I dont give a shit if it makes me look suspicious I will never regret talking through options of letting scum live.

This is a team game and talking about my reservations killing CGG lead to me being 100% sure it was the right move to kill him today.

If you dont like me working through plays that's your problem not mine.

#NoRegrets

 

[Lightning Strikes]

I did want CGG to live I thought about it but my mind was always 85% kill today and 15% let him live a day.

*did Not want CGG to live.

 

[Pazzo the Ghost Clown]

So does that play into your thinking at all? Why bring it up unless you consider it relevant in some way?


I read your post and found it compelling. There's a couple of specific points I want to hone in on when I've woken up a bit, but for now, if Sans did flip scum who would you think the scum mates are?

I'd need to do some additional thinking on that. I'd tentatively say though that Wax (obviously), Kook, and Woodsman wouldn't fit well as teammates based on her recent pushes, though that wouldn't prevent one of them from being the arsonist. I feel like she has butted heads with you quite a lot as well, even early on accusing you of pocketing me so that probably isn't a great fit. I think Stan is almost certainly town after the push on CCG unprompted. Could be Sans, Alien, and then one of the more embedded townies like Snow Ghost or Neon, but that's probably some shit you don't go down the path of until potential end game because neither has struck me as scummy so far.

part three of I certainly did not wait until post-flip to see OH YES NO NEED TO READ CAT meow

Didn't factor in today's things yet since I haven't done more than a very rough surface read.

Snow Creature

The common punching bag? Is the relentless barrage of questions scum filler or a part of his town playstyle? I really would like a concise conclusion post from him at some point, because it all just feels like work that has no end. Null ± a little.

Pazzo the Ghost Clown

The Boo defense could be something if one of the two flips scum. I don’t get why he trusted Char so much, it seems that he (much like Gnome whom he town read softly at one point) heavily relied on the META READ of his because that’s all I see. Doesn’t acknowledge Char’s gossip claim and later indirectly attacks the weakest part of Stan’s theory instead of the real meat of it. I don’t like how he never questions his Char read at all, he just takes it for granted.

Not the worst early game from what I remember but he certainly has dropped during the last few days. This worries me, because some scum would behave like this when multiple days in a row become predictable. Minor scum lean.

The Ghost of Stealing Stan

Gnome laid some tracks and made moves to push Stan. It does not feel like a red versus red type of a thing. Also, there is only like a single person who’d write a D4 opening post like that against his mates and…I don’t know if there’s a match here or not.

Hell, I could see that being a bus. I really feel it could be. Stan’s position wasn’t too strong before D4 and Char was fully reliant on the gossip clear. I don’t think today is the day for this, far from it, but please keep this in mind for endgame and endgame minus one if Stan still lives. I know it would be a dangerous gambit to make, but think of the town cred you get from that. And some scum just don’t minmax their plays, some go for the funnies, fully aware that it can backfire heavily. Fuck. If I start thinking him as scum, the way he bend over when he got some heat over the Boo read becomes more concerning again.

Medium town to oh no, depending on the days to come.

San Franpsycho

Why has she been so town read throughout the game? The aggro can mask a lot and I struggle getting a read through it. With such presence, the lack of attention towards Char and Gnome feels concerning. Gnome bothered to defend Sans and Sans felt good about Gnome. Notes say that she was at least attempting to solve the game on some of the passive day ends but I'd need to look into that deeper to say one thing over the other. IIRC the Char read passivity that Pazzo also had also works here, though it wasn't as offensive with her.

I don't know. Deeper analysis is required. A forced conclusion at this point would have me leaning more towards red than green.

If I had to put you on a town-scum line, maybe something like this:

town
[He/Him] Wax Phantom - UTC
[He/Him] Lightning Strikes|Lightning - UTC

[He/Him] Captain Skunkbeard|Captain - UTC
[He/Him] Neon Phantom|Neon - UTC
[He/Him] Snow Creature - UTC

[He/Him] The Ghost of Stealin Stan|Stan - UTC
[She/Her] San Franpsycho|Sans - UTC

[He/Him] Woodsman - UTC
[He/Him] Pazzo the Ghost Clown|Pazzo - UTC
[He/Him] Alien - UTC
[He/Him] BooBeard - UTC
[She/Her] Spooky Space Kook|Kook - UTC
scum

Wax is almost certainly town and I while I keep on having paranoid thoughts about Lightning every now and then, I think that's where I want to put him once I manage to ignore the nonsense in my head. I could see everyone from Captain to Snow C being town but I am not 100% confident about any of them. In addition, those three reads are based too much on guesses.

I am paranoid about Stan. Should absolutely not go there today but I am not willing to fully believe in him yet. I fear this is a paranoid thought that I will take to the grave. I want to read and think about Sans, because I don't know where to put her even with a guess.

The bottom group is the least exact in terms of the positioning. Alien and Boo for one, I could flip the positions of those two around. D1 makes it hard to believe that they both would be scum so one of them could jump out of the group with a beneficial flip. I could drop Pazzo a bit, perhaps even to the bottom of the list.

I'd love a breakdown of my reaction vs. Sans to the theory presented by Stan, and in what way I avoided the "meat" of it. I actually think I'm one of the few that engaged with it in a more significant manner. Most people either just shrugged and voted, or waffled and avoided like Sans did. I still stand by my argument that there's no way Tech gossiped with Ghost Bear N1. I mean hell, part of Stan's argument is that TP townread Ghost Bear but said he was okay with voting CCG, when TP literally said in his supposed defense of Ghost Bear post that he would vote for Ghost Bear lol Stan argued that he never actually did vote him, so it doesn't count but like... he also didn't vote CCG?

Gonna need you to walk me through this from your POV more to better understand your reasoning.

I'm trying to work out the best way to get across the point that at this point I'm finding myself somewhat suspicious of Lightning.
I figure the best way is just to say it: I am suspicious of Lightning.




The stupid thing is, this is probably what made the light switch flip after seeing Char's flip.
Honest mistake is an explanation for the claim weirdness.

But what if they were teammates?

Char's fake claim was "I have to think about people's names" so he literally chose people he was thinking about.
Lightning isn't one of them.
If Lightning isn't Jman he knows it's a lie. If Lightning is Jman, he's been referring to him as that in scum chat and game both.
Maybe he didn't blank on him for claim purposes in spite of all the times his name had been used, maybe he blanked on him because of them. He skipped the one he knew.

I erred town on him before despite feeling uneasy about the push to mask off, because of the way his posts felt. Reactive. Interactive. Sincere. But the uneasiness never quite shifted, and considering how awful my early reads were re-evaluating them isn't going to do any harm.

Lightning's first posts in the thread were pushes to mass claim, and our other known scum members have also baited identity discussion.

His defense of himself following Boo's rather weak vote on him was hostile and overblown (I still agree with the actual reasoning mind you, and need to revisit Boo myself).

Definitive statements about Ghost Bear being a wrong vote. Certainty expressed without reasoning.
Similar definitive statements about Snacks check that even if it was wrong Town were never going to vote him out.

THAT whole end of day claim thing. I'm admittedly loathed to even go near that.

The "has anyone claimed" post and the attempt to follow it up when nobody answered. The whole "do you really think I'd do this if I were scum" which I feel like I've seen more than once.

And then his reads. I don't actually think he's given any.
Yesterday he actively refused to give reads outside Woodsman.
If he were town he should want to share. To see what other people think. To convince people. To hunt. To ensure his reads don't die with him. If he feels like he's on to something, that should be a risk a town version of him should feel more aware of.

He went in on Boo for not pushing his vote more convincingly, but hasn't actually done the same himself, for anyone. If anything he did the opposite, pushing against voting out Char.
I don't feel like I've seen him push anything since Boo on D1. He gestures, he votes, he called out nobody following him on a vote on one of the Snows at one point, but he didn't actually explain or push or work things through. He just backed off and went elsewhere.

It doesn't sit right with me.
It doesn't feel right.

Hmm, I mean that's an interesting theory - basically the implication being it's a slip via omission. Possible, but probably not an avenue I'd worry about yet.

1, 2, 3) I somewhat struggle to put it to words, but the nagging thought in my head during the early parts of the game was that Sans' play was too easy. The final touch was missing from it, and other such colorful wordplays. I somewhat agree in essence I guess.

4) I have this faint memory that at some point I liked the attempts at solving that Sans did around some of the day ends. Today is a good day to think about that, will get that done at some point.

5, 7) That's one of the bigger things that bothered me too, how Sans skirted around Char. That and the loose Gnome connection with both being fine with each other.

6) The post I think is a good one and I even agreed with it. Gnome looked bad to me when he went straight to the claim instead of trying to argue that a mistake was made. The possibility that they both could be town was unthinkable to him. That's not how Sans saw it though and there certainly is a hint of knowing too much there. The "I don't recall" today is not good. It ain't a smoking gun though so I give a very limited amount of fucks about it overall.

I think the authenticity of the downtime hunting is what either makes or breaks the case for me. I'll look into it.



Char needed to plan nothing and do as much. Char's crumbs misplays had been picked up by many, that's why he had received the attention he did. If town is worried about him, scum surely are aware of the issue. I for one felt that Char's existence was fully reliant on the gossip claim and if scum shared my view or felt that the view could become mainstream soon enough, some madder sort of scummies might've entertained the grand bus option. I am not saying that scum were worried about me, but that they might've seen Char's death an eventuality in the near future.

If thought in the context of the events though, you are correct to say that it is not very likely. Most people were keen on accepting Char as a trustworthy townie, why go against the trend? I don't think everyone would go for the easy option though and I'd like people to keep that in mind in case Stan makes it to endgame. Not like he suddenly becomes an automatic vote even then, just that any town reads on him should not at that point be fully based on that one pre-write. I've bussed my fair share in past games and it has been useful from time to time. In addition, I know there is at least a single person who'd love a gambit like this. A reach, certainly, but I'll not ignore it.

One thing that I completely forgot though was Char's reaction, I was reading Stan after all... Yeah, I don't think it does anything to me. I can't tell how much of the anger is genuine, although I don't think his reaction outright shows that he was in on it. I almost want to say the opposite even, but the man knows how to write anger.

What do you think about Sans dropping Kook? I don't think you responded to that at all.

VOTE: BooBeard

Held Char up his sleeve for multiple days, always paying attention to him and even suspecting him, but never pushing the read.

What were scum doing at the end of D1 in this world? We have confirmed scum Gnome on Anthos, and then in the argument you're painting you'd have BooBeard self-presing. CCG is off in no man's land. I unvoted Boo, but I'm also the reason the train even started because his shit stank until he came out with the truth as corroborated by Alien. Did scum just risk letting Boo die D1 or is there a third on the Anthos wagon? Honestly, the only real way I see it making sense is if it really is Boo + Alien both as scum after all and it was a gambit from the jump and Boo isn't actually new. Like if you're scum, in a costume game, as a newbie and your teammates somehow tell you "yeah, give up the free pass and less scrutinizing eye being a newbie grants you" then wtf are you even doing lol I can't even make it jive with my Sans is scum read because there's no way in hell she wouldn't have told Boo to cut it out in scum chat earlier than was done.

Yeah in retrospect I think in all likelihood we are just looking at 5 scum. I was kinda just spitballing scenarios in that post.



A few things certainly stand out. In particular the total lack of interaction with Pazzo who has stood out to me as one of the more active players. CGG never posted about the BooBeard situation which is also a little surprising, I intend to look into Gnome's interactions. If any of the concerns I see with CGG are reflected in Gnome's posting I'll certainly be vocal about them

I'll get a more in depth post out once I'm off work.

I mean, I spent some of those middle phases drunk, busy at work, and kayaking. You could probably go through my posts and find several players I've not engaged with much. What you need to do is find the interactions that feel forced or performative. Sometimes people just don't say shit worth responding to, or the shit you would have said has already been said by others before you see it. I can't tell you how many times I quote stuff to respond to and then remove some of them because as I catch up someone already said 'thing'.

On rereading sans, i don’t see the non towny behavior some of you are paranoid about.

Her towniness is inversely related to her ability to make good reads in early game ;P and her early reads were terrible.

her inaccurate semantic argument with gnome doesn’t look a planned scummate argument, it’s too stupid for that, a real argument would be about some of gnome’s worse gameplay in a different manner imo. Plus saying the words came from scum chat doesn’t really make sense because of the way discussion unfolded, there’s no phrase in the middle of the argument that could have been in another place.

Also she hasn’t had many posts of wall of text that make my eyes glaze over, which is what i associate with her scum game. Other people did that.

I feel like you have completely misinterpreted what was said. I'm not saying the Sans and Gnome interaction was entirely rehearsed. I'm not saying the post was supposed to go to scum chat and got misplaced. I'm saying the red check came out, they quickly talked about options for how Gnome can explain it away, and as part of that they probably mentioned a switch. Sans in the heat of the moment seeing that Gnome had done a fake claim that was not going to do it, tried to apply heat to look better only to flub it and conflate a post in this thread with their discussion in scum chat. Hence the reference to a switch that was not to be. Schrodinger's Switch.

Let's recap

Sure. Now go back and look at the last time I was mafia, in MGS. Was I fighting with people in the same way?

I'm cranky and irritable as a person, but I am far, far less open about it when I'm mafia unless I let myself get baited, because agreeable people live longer.

I mean I've been mafia with you where we explicitly got very shitty with each other in the game thread to throw people off. I wouldn't put it past you lol

 

[BooBeard]

@BooBeard


I want to pull out a few of these to try and understand how your reads are progressing.

Sure thing, I'll try to reply to the best of my ability.

Town: Lightning Strikes
Before he was a null heaped in wariness and suspicion for you.

The only answers I saw were from Kooks and Lightning himself.


Did you find that convincing?
Yesterday was the Char vote, you were on that vote.
His reaction to it was wishy washy, he unvoted because Char was cooperating when he wasn't, he floated waiting on killing him.

Today you town read him. Strongly. What changed?

So for Lightning I've been light-town reading him most of the game so far (like not including Day 1), here's where I initially said so:

Lightning: Seems very sincere in their arguments. Arguments are well thought out and explained, as well. Doesn't seem to care what people think of them. Town lean for sure.

That post you quoted of me was where I stepped back and dropped his stock a little bit, from town-lean to neutral, but I did find his response afterwards convincing. As well, the unvote for Char aligns with his play most of this game so far of trying to start multiple wagons and get more information in a given day phase. Char was definitely cooperating and replying, even if their responses were (now we know in hindsight) bogus.

Town-lean: Skunkbeard

Also Skunkbeard.
Obviously I know what's changed here, New!Beard is more active.
Has their content played a role as well or is it just that you no longer feel like they're a potential coast kill?

New!Skunkbeard seems like a pro to me because they've managed to successfully drop in and exude big town energy with their reads and questioning. If it wasn't for Old!Skunkbeard I would have them in town-lean instead of neutral, but I have no idea how to read replacements players and compare them to pre-replacements so I think neutral is fine for now for me.

Neutral: Snow Creature

Why has yesterday's scum lean who you floated as your next logical voting choice now been raised out of your voting board?

I was heavy on Snow Creature at the start of yesterday's day phase, but I've started waffling on them because of their posting after that and today. They've been poking at Woodsman and San which are my main scumreads. (I don't believe both Woodsman and San are scum, I believe it's one or the other). One issue I had with some of their larger posts is that they seem to use a lot of words to not make a big point, i.e. busywork. But this post:

Shocker, I'm not a great mafia player and I obviously don't know what's actually happening. All I can do is make guesses and explain them in my own way.

in particular gave me some pause because I can really relate. If this is a play at sympathy to distract then it's working on me. Maybe they're town and just doing their best. Hence, the updated null read instead of scum. I'll still watch them going forward, but I mean I'm pretty much watching everyone. Wax is the only player who I would not vote no matter what happens, unless this game somehow turns into bastard which is not happening.

 

[San Franpsycho]

I mean I've been mafia with you where we explicitly got very shitty with each other in the game thread to throw people off. I wouldn't put it past you lol

I'll get back to the rest in a bit (I'm putting together my longer post now and don't want to lose my clipboard lol) but my dude, that was literal years ago. I'm much more refined now*

*I am probably not more refined now, but I can pretend

 

[San Franpsycho]

Okay, my goal today is to work through my nulls and my PoE reads. Here's where I started today:

null:
Alien
Pazzo
Snow G

PoE:
Snow C
Kook
Woodsman

I forgot BooBeard - would put him in my nulls. I do think at this point he’s been telling the truth (or he’s a really good actor) - this feels like someone new to us but maybe not entirely new to mafia. There are a lot of weird posts there. He’s someone I hope to dig into this phase as well.

I started today with a vote on Woodsman. One of the reasons I wanted to start there today was because I wanted to see who would engage - following up in a sense from where yesterday I asked if anyone was engaging with Cat’s theory about Woodsman as town. Because, honestly, when you have someone with a good record, so often it’s a bus. With something like this, a case of someone pushing ONE person from game start… it’s almost like a coin flip. But I see Woodsman opening up a little today. If that continues, I’ll feel better, but if he evaporates again in the absence of pressure, I think that’s a red flag.

I do like that Woodsman doesn’t seem to back down from questions, even if I don’t think his answers always offer that much. A willingness to clarify and discuss is still a good sign. But pressure on folks is also a good way to look for teaming (see also yesterday, votes, pressure, etc.)

So I voted there. What happened?

Lightning joined the vote, but did not comment on the push at the time. Later says something much like what I’ve said above - but not sure I agree?

Woodsman has had his name thrown out for a couple of days now and seems completely chill.

It's very concerning does not feel like natural innocent town getting falsely accused.

There very tactically hanging back hoping the focus on them disappears.

What should "natural innocent town getting falsely accused" do? Walk me through your reasoning, especially since you moved off the vote.

Pazzo pushed back - and it’s not a bad argument, but I also think that sort of hesitation could be scum looking for a way off a wagon while still looking good. But your point about timing is worth considering.
BooBeard was very wishy-washy - okay, you question. What conclusions are you coming to? Why is Woodsman’s flip tied to my flip? Why are you thinking in chains in the first place?

Stan looks good after the Char flip. Kook on the other hand looks worse.

Cat raised good points about Woodsman yesterday so I'm starting to question my prior read on them, combined with the Char flip as well.

I think you posted more after I finished this so I'll go check but this post is a long sentence of nothing. I have another question too, but I'll ask that separately.
Snow C pushes back - and sits on Woodsman much of today with questions - I'm iffy on this tbh. I'll dedicate another post to it.
Stan seemed to have Woodsman still in the PoE, but to be fair, has a big PoE; not sure of actual reasons for anyone
Wax wants Woodsman dead, not sure why
Skunkbeard wants Woodsman flipped for a reason I don’t understand: explain?

While i understand [paszzo probably]’s argument about woodsman and his voting of char, i still think woodsman needs to be flipped, partly due to the fact that he still sounds like LP to me, and i don’t see geno using his name in vain as a dead player if they weren’t team mates. Fanto was another question, where he just was very sure he was right. Or they do have a role with people Guessing, but either way.

If Woodsman is not LP (and again, I really do not think so), do you still feel this way? How do you get to this place where the namedrop is a scumtell? I guess I just don't get that.

 

[San Franpsycho]

So my conclusion is: There seems to be some ill feeling about Woodsman but not many of us are actually pursuing it or engaging, which I guess tracks with the lack of votes. I don't know what this means for the odds of Woodsman being mafia. There's no hard defense. There's not even much soft defense. Nor is there much change after the Char flip, which I think I find most curious? It looks like Pazzo has done the most to actually reevaluate Woodsman in the post-Char landscape, and Snow C questioned, but otherwise, I don't see a lot of "this happened, therefore I think X and Y" going on and I'm not sure what to think about that.

 

[San Franpsycho]

Anyway, @BooBeard, I have a question for you, using the same post as above:

Stan looks good after the Char flip. Kook on the other hand looks worse.

Cat raised good points about Woodsman yesterday so I'm starting to question my prior read on them, combined with the Char flip as well.

So, considering I was the one who was SO adamant about Kook yesterday to the point that I was yelling about it, how do you go from "Kook looks worse, yes" to "Sans, who said the thing initially that I have agreed with, is scum?"

You did say this:

There's a lot of good points here. San has been such a dominant player in this game so far and yet she hasn't been nightkilled. The longer that goes on the more suspicious she gets. Also reading through this I realize a lot of my suspicion on Kook comes from San. I need to sleep on this and re-evaluate my thoughts.

So are you just agreeing with whomever is around at the time or...? What are YOUR actual thoughts?

And why on earth would I be nightkilled? Let's recap re: night kills:
Frankenstein - a standard middle-road-doc-dodge low-info kill n1 kill, not surprising
Techni - probably gossiped with and spooked scum into killing him OR there's an unaccounted for kill
Scoobs - got scum killed, was then basically confirmed town + possible ability to catch more scum (that it was a gambit doesn't matter here)
Hyde, probably - was semi-confirmed town

Who's gonna kill me in this game over any of these except maybe Frankenstein? Why should I be dead by now? In terms of actual play, people like Stan and Baba would have come way before someone like me - and Stan's still here and Baba got doused and lit up. Two days from now maybe your point here holds weight. At this point? Nah.

If anything makes me think Boo is on a team, it's this. This sounds like something that comes from someone who knows me or has heard something, not from someone reading this game and making conclusions about this game. And since Boo probably doesn't know me... where does it come from?

 

[Lightning Strikes]

What should "natural innocent town getting falsely accused" do? Walk me through your reasoning, especially since you moved off the vote.

To be clear I moved my vote simply because you can only vote 1 person at a time. I would kill woodsman in a heartbeat.

Theres no one way to react it's just this vibe I get that because the woodsman vote is not gaining traction he is ok sitting back being A player barely noticed.

The fact that there's so little Defense of woodsman like you pointed out is a red flag for me too. If he was town I would think at least some scum would come to his defense.

 

[San Franpsycho]

To be clear I moved my vote simply because you can only vote 1 person at a time. I would kill woodsman in a heartbeat.

Theres no one way to react it's just this vibe I get that because the woodsman vote is not gaining traction he is ok sitting back being A player barely noticed.

The fact that there's so little Defense of woodsman like you pointed out is a red flag for me too. If he was town I would think at least some scum would come to his defense.

Me too, especially right after losing two people, and it's giving me pause. It's why I wanted to go through reactions. It just seems kinda lukewarm from a lot of people, which makes me more wary than I was earlier, but doesn't really resolve it either way.

But I also think he's been responsive to questioning - he's been here engaging with Snow C going at him, so I don't really agree that he's sitting back. I wish there was MORE from him but I'm not sure I'm feeling as bad about it as I was at day start.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

I'm not sure I'm feeling as bad about it as I was at day start.

Yeah i agree woodsman has looked better as time has gone on.

The debate in my brain is woodsman town who is starting to play better or is he Mafia that is trying harder to look town.

Just not sure yet.

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

I feel like you have completely misinterpreted what was said. I'm not saying the Sans and Gnome interaction was entirely rehearsed. I'm not saying the post was supposed to go to scum chat and got misplaced. I'm saying the red check came out, they quickly talked about options for how Gnome can explain it away, and as part of that they probably mentioned a switch. Sans in the heat of the moment seeing that Gnome had done a fake claim that was not going to do it, tried to apply heat to look better only to flub it and conflate a post in this thread with their discussion in scum chat. Hence the reference to a switch that was not to be. Schrodinger's Switch.

no, i understood you, i just don’t agree there could have been a post in scum chat conflated with the game thread given the exact cconverstaion that occurred.

Skunkbeard wants Woodsman flipped for a reason I don’t understand: explain?

Oh, that’s me. I don’t recognize me.

he seems to be playing both sides and sitting out most controversies and not attacking anyone; at this point i think he’s a good candidate for arsonist. He has avoided scum wagons that seemed obvious [to me], and not fought with town members.

If Woodsman is not LP (and again, I really do not think so), do you still feel this way? How do you get to this place where the namedrop is a scumtell? I guess I just don't get that.

because if i had guessed the right player [in woodsman costume], a scum can’t say they got a green check on the player name when it’s a different costume they checked unless that player is a teammate; they’d just be contradicted. If i have the wrong player no it doesn’t work as an argument. still, woodsman is not choosing to comment and that’s their right.

Also i linked a previous post that seems just so bad it needs flipping even if wood turns out town. One can’t leave question marks that blatant.

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

And played a townier looking game when under suspicion, but not enough to piss off remaining mafia.

 

[San Franpsycho]

Yeah, I don't disagree - I don't think Woodsman gets to endgame for sure because at the end of the day he's too big a question mark.

Interesting arsonist angle.

 

[Pazzo the Ghost Clown]

no, i understood you, i just don’t agree there could have been a post in scum chat conflated with the game thread given the exact cconverstaion that occurred.

What do you think occurred? As far as I know the word switch hadn't been uttered by anyone at any point. Do you think Sans is a player that has exhibited a knack for getting entire details wrong? For calling out things that never even occurred? Where did this thought come from then?

 

[San Franpsycho]

Speaking as the Sans in question... I get all kinds of things wrong. I am wrong all the time. :P

 

[Pazzo the Ghost Clown]

Speaking as the Sans in question... I get all kinds of things wrong. I am wrong all the time. :P

Wrong about your interpretation of a thing, and wrong about a fact are different things and you know it lol I know full well you get things wrong in the other sense

 

[BooBeard]

Anyway, @BooBeard, I have a question for you, using the same post as above:

So, considering I was the one who was SO adamant about Kook yesterday to the point that I was yelling about it, how do you go from "Kook looks worse, yes" to "Sans, who said the thing initially that I have agreed with, is scum?"

You did say this:

So are you just agreeing with whomever is around at the time or...? What are YOUR actual thoughts?

My actual thoughts are that I'm growing steadily more paranoid and re-evaluating assumptions I made earlier. I did think Kook looked worse with the Char flip based on your posts from yesterday but now I want to consider on my own how they are going forward.

And why on earth would I be nightkilled? Let's recap re: night kills:
Frankenstein - a standard middle-road-doc-dodge low-info kill n1 kill, not surprising
Techni - probably gossiped with and spooked scum into killing him OR there's an unaccounted for kill
Scoobs - got scum killed, was then basically confirmed town + possible ability to catch more scum (that it was a gambit doesn't matter here)
Hyde, probably - was semi-confirmed town

Who's gonna kill me in this game over any of these except maybe Frankenstein? Why should I be dead by now? In terms of actual play, people like Stan and Baba would have come way before someone like me - and Stan's still here and Baba got doused and lit up. Two days from now maybe your point here holds weight. At this point? Nah.

If anything makes me think Boo is on a team, it's this. This sounds like something that comes from someone who knows me or has heard something, not from someone reading this game and making conclusions about this game. And since Boo probably doesn't know me... where does it come from?

I have no idea who you are. All I can go off is this game. If I was scum I would've went for a strong townie instead of an unconfirmed Mason.

 

[Snow Creature]

Sorry I've been out and will be going to bed soon. I want to put together my case on Woodsman before I go though so sit tight (I finally actually did a reread lol)

 

[Alien]

Day 1 Gnome interactions

Up until post #291 Gnome has interactions with several players this is all shitposting though.

Post #291 - first meaningful post in the game
- didn't like post #200 from Wax
- Kook feels natural
- asked Sans what they didn't like about one of my posts

Posts #304 and #307 - response to my post #302 in regards to the no vote talk on day 1

#347 - confused by one of Wax Phantom's posts

#362 - Agrees with Stan that Wax is cosplaying

Follows up on this in #373 and #374

#410 - agrees with Sans' post #407

#416 - respond/jokes with Sans about Wax cosplay being bad

#435 - accuses Wax of being FateShirou
#438 - continues with Fate = Wax

#501 to #516 - Lots of posts here so I'll collect them all together

- Fake Sparks/Wax is maybe town (#504)
- Agrees with Woodsman post #503 about no vote being a bad idea (#505)
- Likes Anthos vote (#516)
Bunch of other posts here but they're by and large meaningless IMO

#570 - asks what the case on BooBeard is, likes Anthos vote, CGG vote is a 'trap

#577 - votes Anthos

#578 - Defends CGG

#606 - doesn't think BooBear is scum
#608 - reiterates ^

Big gap between posts here

#779 - responds to Baba's post #774 (baba accused Sans of ignoring the situation with Boo) asks Baba if they think Boo and Sans are teammates

#783 - claims Boo Beard vote is pure.

#799 - Defends Sans

#801 and 803 - Defends CGG

#874 - claims Stan's posts 811 and 815 are posturing.

#980 - doesn't believe Boo is scum, claims my defence of Boo is being played up, 'Pazzo, Sans, Snack, Techni, Kook, and Cat Creat are probably who I feel the best about at the moment' scum here?, votes Stan.

#1027 - claims Boo votes on Day 1 are likely pure town (second time this has occurred)

#1153 - moved vote to Hyde

#1266 - unvoted

#1295 - voted Lightning based on little to nothing

#1380 - claims Lightning was being weird about the Ghost Bear vote as reasoning for voting there

#1403 - falsely claims dog cop

#1404 - claims Snack is lying about red check

#1435 - claims Sans switched them

That's about it in terms of meaningful posts

So looking at this and CGG's posts I'm again struck by the fact that Gnome largely ignored the existence of Pazzo. Their only interaction was a joke post on day 1 (#168). However, Gnome listed Pazzo twice on their lists of players they felt good about. (#309 and #980).


I checked for the sake of fairness. In #861 Pazzo lists Gnome as a town lean. At that point they had only a single interaction on day 1. Pazzo did later vote Gnome (#1445)

Pazzo makes a minor defence of Char (#1261)

So here it is. Gnome listed Pazzo, Sans, and Kook as players they thought were town in post #980 (at least one of these must be Scum surely), both Gnome and CGG has remarkably little interaction with Pazzo throughout the entire game and Pazzo both listed Gnome as a town lean and defended CGG in various points of the game.

Now I appreciate I've been lazy as shit in this game and I'm probably totally misinterpreting what I've seen here. If I'm wrong I'm sorry.

Vote:Pazzo the Ghost Clown

 

[San Franpsycho]

I have no idea who you are. All I can go off is this game. If I was scum I would've went for a strong townie instead of an unconfirmed Mason.

That's a ridiculous play. The odds of getting a random townie voted out are massively higher than a mason, confirmed or not. There was no material reason to doubt the masons.

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

What do you think occurred? As far as I know the word switch hadn't been uttered by anyone at any point. Do you think Sans is a player that has exhibited a knack for getting entire details wrong? For calling out things that never even occurred? Where did this thought come from then?

Sans came up with the word switch originally and said [gnome] should have thought of it if they were town.

then she [forgot] overnight and accused gnome of saying the word switch first.

This from memory while viewing the game as a non participant i think. Whatever, the whole thing was very stupid and i don’t think it’s a manufactured teammate fight when gnome had much meatier stuff to jump on for busing purposes.

 

[Alien]

When you get back:

Since we don't see it here, how do you count interactions? One way, two way, mentions, what? And what do you get from this? What's the difference between the 1s and 2s besides numbers? Zeroes? Did anyone have a meaningful but small interaction? What do you actually SEE in this?

Okay so finally getting to this. It was a lazy post to be honest . I'm gonna go through CGGs posting in the same way I have just done with Gnome. I didn't explain it well enough but the number is the amount of times CGG quoted a particular user. I came out of this post with a better opinion of Woodsman and Snow Creature and a worse view of Pazzo and BooBeard. Like I say though I'll rewrite that post similar to the one I've done with Gnome's postings. I feel I can do a better job than I did in that post.

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

Reread of snow creature:
lean scum.
voted both scum but only at the end of the day/wagon once the flip was pretty certain
being too agreeable ;)

it’s not a ‘smoking gun’ more of a paranoia read, but i’d be happy to see the flip and possibly be contradicted.

 

[Snow Creature]

I apologise for the long post I'm about to make, but I think I have a solid case here.

 

[Snow Creature]

Sorry for the long post again - I did come in with the intention of being succinct.

So, Woodsman's been on my radar for quite a while, but I've only just sat down and reread him today. His answers to my questions so far haven't really changed my mind and they still haven't answered my question about Lightning.

We all know Woodsman was on Char D1 and D2. All this game, I've been looking for the scum bus. It's scum 101 so I thought someone HAD to be selling their team mate down the river for town points. I believe that person is Woodsman.

It starts D1 with them saying Char sets off red flags for them and makes a valid point. They follow this up with their vote. But it doesn't put them in danger. It's D1 and votes do fly everywhere, but this is important for later. Boo was in the lead at this point with 5, Anthos at 3. With Woodsman's vote, Char is just at 2. Not at risk at all.

I see a pattern of pushing Char only when it's safe to do so. Here, on D2, they reiterate their suspicion of Char but say since the wagon isn't likely, they'll go for Bear instead. Why not push your main read? If they're the one you're suspicious of, why not pursue it? Why care about the wagon?

So why do they vote Char on D2 eventually? Because there are other trains more popular. The three most popular trains at one point were Ghost Bear with about 7, Hyde with 4 and Wax with 5. Woodsman only votes for Char after these trains start to pick up steam. I believe they do this because they think their scum mate will be fine. With Woodsman's vote, Char's only on 2. And there are 3 trains ahead of it - great cover!

It's made even weirder because NOW they're interested in starting a new wagon. Why weren't they before? Before, they didn't want to bother because it wouldn't take off. I believe they didn't vote there IN CASE it did take off.

If we're in the process of starting new wagons:

vote: Char Gar Gothakon

There's an extra layer to this vote, but it's a bit spicier, so I'll post it in a separate comment.

Things get bad though with the mason reveal. Cat jumps to Char, closely followed by Kook and Snack. Now there's been some talk about how in danger Char really was at this point, with a lot of people saying it wasn't that big a deal. But I think it was and scum was put in a really bad spot. Snack's vote put them to 7 Ghost Bear vs 5 Char. Char's Hail Mary is to bring out the anger, making people back off. I imagine there's some other scum play at work here too (more in the follow up comment).

Woodsman ends up staying on Char for D2, but I think that's just for optics. You can't jump off your main scum read when they're a viable vote. That's left to the other scum (like Gnome who eventually jumps on board).

D3 and D4 are similar for Woodsman in that they didn't vote on either day. When those are both scum votes, that's a bad look. On Gnome, the vote was nailed on following the red check. In a rather non-chalant post, they briefly say Gnome sounds like scum, Char's Tech gossip claim is sound, and that's pretty much it.

Good morning. Looks like I missed all the action!
Gnomes reaction to the red check sounds like caught Scum and a red check will always take precedence anyway.
No reason to doubt Chars claim at this point.
Did Tech leave any breadcrumbs for his N2 target?

Also I'm not doused and haven't been in a gossip chat.

Again, if you have someone you believe is scum, why don't you vote there? And it's not as if the turbo caught them off guard. Woodsman was there at the end of the day. They could have laid down the vote.

Here, I think we have a case of what I like to call scum paralysis. You're scum and you don't know what the right choice is; you don't want to give town any ammo against you. Do you bus your team mate late on and risk being called out for bussing? Or do you vote somewhere else and try to push another idea? Or do you decide to not give anything away and avoid voting? If you're scum who cares about their appearance, I think you do nothing.

You see it again on D4. They were more skeptical of Stan's case. But if Char is your top scum read - which is hard to tell because Woodsman didn't give away reads, which I believe was purposefully done - why don't you entertain the idea and vote? Because when it comes to it, you don't ACTUALLY want to vote Char. And again, no vote; nothing on Char, nothing on anyone else. Because that would give people information about their state of mind. They would rather not commit.

And again again, they were here for roughly end of day. Their contribution?

So, are we just running down the clock?

If the day is a done deal, why not put down a vote? Any vote? Not putting a vote down is extremely anti-town, even if it's off wagon.

Woodsman has been all bark and no bite. Their pursuit of Char was the bus we're all looking for. Because when push comes to shove, they never actually want to vote there.

vote: Woodsman

Obviously my vote goes here, but there's someone else I would definitely consider, but more of that in post 2.

 

[Snow Creature]

TL;DR Woodsman only votes on Char when Char isn't in danger. Doesn't vote D3 or 4 on scum because they don't want to put themselves in a compromising position.

 

[Pazzo the Ghost Clown]

Day 1 Gnome interactions

Up until post #291 Gnome has interactions with several players this is all shitposting though.

Post #291 - first meaningful post in the game
- didn't like post #200 from Wax
- Kook feels natural
- asked Sans what they didn't like about one of my posts

Posts #304 and #307 - response to my post #302 in regards to the no vote talk on day 1

#347 - confused by one of Wax Phantom's posts

#362 - Agrees with Stan that Wax is cosplaying

Follows up on this in #373 and #374

#410 - agrees with Sans' post #407

#416 - respond/jokes with Sans about Wax cosplay being bad

#435 - accuses Wax of being FateShirou
#438 - continues with Fate = Wax

#501 to #516 - Lots of posts here so I'll collect them all together

- Fake Sparks/Wax is maybe town (#504)
- Agrees with Woodsman post #503 about no vote being a bad idea (#505)
- Likes Anthos vote (#516)
Bunch of other posts here but they're by and large meaningless IMO

#570 - asks what the case on BooBeard is, likes Anthos vote, CGG vote is a 'trap

#577 - votes Anthos

#578 - Defends CGG

#606 - doesn't think BooBear is scum
#608 - reiterates ^

Big gap between posts here

#779 - responds to Baba's post #774 (baba accused Sans of ignoring the situation with Boo) asks Baba if they think Boo and Sans are teammates

#783 - claims Boo Beard vote is pure.

#799 - Defends Sans

#801 and 803 - Defends CGG

#874 - claims Stan's posts 811 and 815 are posturing.

#980 - doesn't believe Boo is scum, claims my defence of Boo is being played up, 'Pazzo, Sans, Snack, Techni, Kook, and Cat Creat are probably who I feel the best about at the moment' scum here?, votes Stan.

#1027 - claims Boo votes on Day 1 are likely pure town (second time this has occurred)

#1153 - moved vote to Hyde

#1266 - unvoted

#1295 - voted Lightning based on little to nothing

#1380 - claims Lightning was being weird about the Ghost Bear vote as reasoning for voting there

#1403 - falsely claims dog cop

#1404 - claims Snack is lying about red check

#1435 - claims Sans switched them

That's about it in terms of meaningful posts

So looking at this and CGG's posts I'm again struck by the fact that Gnome largely ignored the existence of Pazzo. Their only interaction was a joke post on day 1 (#168). However, Gnome listed Pazzo twice on their lists of players they felt good about. (#309 and #980).


I checked for the sake of fairness. In #861 Pazzo lists Gnome as a town lean. At that point they had only a single interaction on day 1. Pazzo did later vote Gnome (#1445)

Pazzo makes a minor defence of Char (#1261)

So here it is. Gnome listed Pazzo, Sans, and Kook as players they thought were town in post #980 (at least one of these must be Scum surely), both Gnome and CGG has remarkably little interaction with Pazzo throughout the entire game and Pazzo both listed Gnome as a town lean and defended CGG in various points of the game.

Now I appreciate I've been lazy as shit in this game and I'm probably totally misinterpreting what I've seen here. If I'm wrong I'm sorry.

Vote:Pazzo the Ghost Clown

Now go look at how many other players I have no meaningful interaction with and realize the numbers aren’t gonna add up lol It’s a costume game with not an insignificant amount of players that I was fairly AFK from at times.

 

[Pazzo the Ghost Clown]

I’ll read your case when I have more time Snow give me a bit

 

[Snow Creature]

My slightly spicier part of my theory is that Sans is involved. My story is that Sans and Woodsman (possibly other scum) wanted to create a situation where it was safe for Woodsman to vote Char. That the push for Wax and Hyde were planned by scum.

Town loves some alternative trains, but if Woodsman votes Char, it pushes them closer to the danger zone. So what better idea than to create a distraction?

The vote on Hyde only takes off with Sans:

lol just kidding I just want to see if he turns fake OMGUS into real OMGUS.
vote: Hyde Monster

But this is fine, I want to see if they poke their head up.

Cat isn't far behind because they loved jumping from vote to vote, but you know who isn't far behind?

Yeah why not. Still okay with the other wagons, but Hyde has done nothing.

Vote: Hyde Monster

With some more votes on Hyde, Woodsman has the breathing room to post on Char. In the potential that either Hyde, Wax, or Ghost Bear flip, Woodsman comes out looking good. But then we know the mason reveal happens and the vote shifts to Char. With that, scum needs to find a new train. Sans jumps to me, I'm assuming because I had enough heat on me after a bad D1 that I might pick up votes. Indeed, Cat follows eventually. It's played off as a bit of a joke, but I believe this A) tries to push the vote to me and B) keeps Sans off the Ghost Bear vote.

This part of my theory is a lot more conjecture, but I really have a gut feeling that I might be onto something. I know Gnome eventually adds to the Ghost Bear vote, but I'm wondering if the last scum is in there too around that time. Would potentially put Neon in the firing line. I want to read more into Sans to see if there's any weight to the idea.

 

[Snow Creature]

I’ll read your case when I have more time Snow give me a bit

It's a long one, sorry, take your time.

I'm going to bed now, look forward to seeing what you all have to add in the morning.

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

<snip>

Gnome jumping on that wagon with so little explanation makes it more likely the wagon was started and encouraged by town players rather than gnome’s own teammates.

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

After rereading snow ghost: feel good here. Ghost is pushing very good points with contradictions players have made, and was hard on Chargar pretty early on.

I’ll put in town for now pile.

 

[The Ghost of Stealin Stan]

sorry ive been so absent in the first half of the day. rl issues.

i could see san fran as scum, but not based on the who-said-switch-first thingy. skunkbeard is right that it doesn't really make sense re the timeline. plus i am sure skunkbeard is town, because of the way geno tried to set her up as tp's n2 chat partner, so i trust her.

i saw some people trying to suspect me, but i don't feel the need to defend myself, admittedly some luck was involved in my case of char gar but imo it speaks for itself & i bet post game we'll even see that my ghost bear theory was right.

neon is right that gnome was locked in by claiming to need to guess names, so it doesn't mean much that he listed char gar and lightning as his two dog clears. back to a light town lean on lightning.

i will read the cases on pazzo, woodsman, and kook more carefully.

@Wax Phantom please say more about why hyde claimed doused in the chat but not in the main thread. did he give his reasoning?

 

[Wax Phantom]

sorry ive been so absent in the first half of the day. rl issues.

i could see san fran as scum, but not based on the who-said-switch-first thingy. skunkbeard is right that it doesn't really make sense re the timeline. plus i am sure skunkbeard is town, because of the way geno tried to set her up as tp's n2 chat partner, so i trust her.

i saw some people trying to suspect me, but i don't feel the need to defend myself, admittedly some luck was involved in my case of char gar but imo it speaks for itself & i bet post game we'll even see that my ghost bear theory was right.

neon is right that gnome was locked in by claiming to need to guess names, so it doesn't mean much that he listed char gar and lightning as his two dog clears. back to a light town lean on lightning.

i will read the cases on pazzo, woodsman, and kook more carefully.

@Wax Phantom please say more about why hyde claimed doused in the chat but not in the main thread. did he give his reasoning?

/shrug

 

[The Ghost of Stealin Stan]

/shrug

please? did he say anything?

 

[Spooky Space Kook]

please? did he say anything?

I think Wax is saying that Hyde mentioned being doused but didn't say anything beyond that. I'm really not sure why that wouldn't get mentioned in the thread here though

 

[Spooky Space Kook]

Sorry for the long post again - I did come in with the intention of being succinct.

So, Woodsman's been on my radar for quite a while, but I've only just sat down and reread him today. His answers to my questions so far haven't really changed my mind and they still haven't answered my question about Lightning.

We all know Woodsman was on Char D1 and D2. All this game, I've been looking for the scum bus. It's scum 101 so I thought someone HAD to be selling their team mate down the river for town points. I believe that person is Woodsman.

It starts D1 with them saying Char sets off red flags for them and makes a valid point. They follow this up with their vote. But it doesn't put them in danger. It's D1 and votes do fly everywhere, but this is important for later. Boo was in the lead at this point with 5, Anthos at 3. With Woodsman's vote, Char is just at 2. Not at risk at all.

I see a pattern of pushing Char only when it's safe to do so. Here, on D2, they reiterate their suspicion of Char but say since the wagon isn't likely, they'll go for Bear instead. Why not push your main read? If they're the one you're suspicious of, why not pursue it? Why care about the wagon?

So why do they vote Char on D2 eventually? Because there are other trains more popular. The three most popular trains at one point were Ghost Bear with about 7, Hyde with 4 and Wax with 5. Woodsman only votes for Char after these trains start to pick up steam. I believe they do this because they think their scum mate will be fine. With Woodsman's vote, Char's only on 2. And there are 3 trains ahead of it - great cover!

It's made even weirder because NOW they're interested in starting a new wagon. Why weren't they before? Before, they didn't want to bother because it wouldn't take off. I believe they didn't vote there IN CASE it did take off.

There's an extra layer to this vote, but it's a bit spicier, so I'll post it in a separate comment.

Things get bad though with the mason reveal. Cat jumps to Char, closely followed by Kook and Snack. Now there's been some talk about how in danger Char really was at this point, with a lot of people saying it wasn't that big a deal. But I think it was and scum was put in a really bad spot. Snack's vote put them to 7 Ghost Bear vs 5 Char. Char's Hail Mary is to bring out the anger, making people back off. I imagine there's some other scum play at work here too (more in the follow up comment).

Woodsman ends up staying on Char for D2, but I think that's just for optics. You can't jump off your main scum read when they're a viable vote. That's left to the other scum (like Gnome who eventually jumps on board).

D3 and D4 are similar for Woodsman in that they didn't vote on either day. When those are both scum votes, that's a bad look. On Gnome, the vote was nailed on following the red check. In a rather non-chalant post, they briefly say Gnome sounds like scum, Char's Tech gossip claim is sound, and that's pretty much it.

Again, if you have someone you believe is scum, why don't you vote there? And it's not as if the turbo caught them off guard. Woodsman was there at the end of the day. They could have laid down the vote.

Here, I think we have a case of what I like to call scum paralysis. You're scum and you don't know what the right choice is; you don't want to give town any ammo against you. Do you bus your team mate late on and risk being called out for bussing? Or do you vote somewhere else and try to push another idea? Or do you decide to not give anything away and avoid voting? If you're scum who cares about their appearance, I think you do nothing.

You see it again on D4. They were more skeptical of Stan's case. But if Char is your top scum read - which is hard to tell because Woodsman didn't give away reads, which I believe was purposefully done - why don't you entertain the idea and vote? Because when it comes to it, you don't ACTUALLY want to vote Char. And again, no vote; nothing on Char, nothing on anyone else. Because that would give people information about their state of mind. They would rather not commit.

And again again, they were here for roughly end of day. Their contribution?

If the day is a done deal, why not put down a vote? Any vote? Not putting a vote down is extremely anti-town, even if it's off wagon.

Woodsman has been all bark and no bite. Their pursuit of Char was the bus we're all looking for. Because when push comes to shove, they never actually want to vote there.

vote: Woodsman

Obviously my vote goes here, but there's someone else I would definitely consider, but more of that in post 2.

Thanks for pulling this together, one thing I noticed about Woodsman was that he was the first one to poke a hole in CGG's claim by pointing out that Jman wasn't part of the claim.

Why didn't you check Jman?

The claim was pretty elaborate compared to the roles that flipped so I think most people had suspicions, but do you think Woods was going for the bus right away?

 

[Pazzo the Ghost Clown]

TL;DR Woodsman only votes on Char when Char isn't in danger. Doesn't vote D3 or 4 on scum because they don't want to put themselves in a compromising position.

I need to go look at the vote breakdown for D2 with the actual movement as it developed, because that’s the bit that seems the most potentially damning in your case. The back half is a lot of WIFOM and depends a lot more on playstyle and circumstance. The entire point of bussing is to be prepared to bury your teammate at just the right moment where you then get to go “look I was on them all game! I helped vote them out too!” There’s no payoff if you bus and then just..stop right when they’re actually about to die lol

My slightly spicier part of my theory is that Sans is involved. My story is that Sans and Woodsman (possibly other scum) wanted to create a situation where it was safe for Woodsman to vote Char. That the push for Wax and Hyde were planned by scum.

Town loves some alternative trains, but if Woodsman votes Char, it pushes them closer to the danger zone. So what better idea than to create a distraction?

The vote on Hyde only takes off with Sans:


Cat isn't far behind because they loved jumping from vote to vote, but you know who isn't far behind?


With some more votes on Hyde, Woodsman has the breathing room to post on Char. In the potential that either Hyde, Wax, or Ghost Bear flip, Woodsman comes out looking good. But then we know the mason reveal happens and the vote shifts to Char. With that, scum needs to find a new train. Sans jumps to me, I'm assuming because I had enough heat on me after a bad D1 that I might pick up votes. Indeed, Cat follows eventually. It's played off as a bit of a joke, but I believe this A) tries to push the vote to me and B) keeps Sans off the Ghost Bear vote.

This part of my theory is a lot more conjecture, but I really have a gut feeling that I might be onto something. I know Gnome eventually adds to the Ghost Bear vote, but I'm wondering if the last scum is in there too around that time. Would potentially put Neon in the firing line. I want to read more into Sans to see if there's any weight to the idea.

How does today’s start from Sans line up with this? I’m hard pressed to see them as scum together because it would mean mafia’s plan upon losing two of their members back to back was to...make it back to back to back? Lol Unless you think Sans really had no intention of pushing the case further.

 

[San Franpsycho]

hmm. Some cases today. Gonna play some vidya with the hubs and then I have some good catching up to do, but I’ll be around later.

Really interested in seeing if Woodsman and Kook produce anything meaningful, considering we are seeing some effort now from some folks who have this far laid low.

 

[San Franpsycho]

Thus far*

 

[The Ghost of Stealin Stan]

snow c's case on woodsman, and also just the general sense that woodsman is scummy: i can see it.

he was shading char gar a lot, but snow c is right that that doesn't mean anything w/o votes at the right time, and that's some good work making the timing clear.

i also noticed in my reread of woodsman that even though he had been suspicious of char gar, he was one of the first to ask him if tp had breadcrumbed an n2 target, setting up geno's attempt to frame baba or skunk as the n2 target, an argument that geno pursued until he started to get scum read himself

Good morning. Looks like I missed all the action!
Gnomes reaction to the red check sounds like caught Scum and a red check will always take precedence anyway.
No reason to doubt Chars claim at this point.
Did Tech leave any breadcrumbs for his N2 target?

Also I'm not doused and haven't been in a gossip chat.

also did not like this post:

I don't like that this theory about CGG has taken off so quickly. While there is maybe some merit to it, the way everybody just sucked it up doesn't sit right with me.

not to say that everyone has to believe my theory because i say so. plenty of people found holes in my reasoning or thought it was shaky. but what woods man is doing here is a non-defense defense, great scum tactic to which there is no good answer. cast shade on arguments making it a bad thing that many players agree, with the implication that scum like the way things are going or they would be arguing back. since you haven't actually made any arguments, your opposition melts away if needed. good way to subtly defend cgg without appearing to change position.

finally, "hyde would've been at the top of the list of char defenders". scummy. ostentatious claim not to know who the night kill was (maybe real though, depends on arsonist) plus invites people to town read hyde for suspecting char, but in a way where woodsy didn't bring it up himself.

i would be ok with seeing woodsman go. not completely sure though, will look at the other cases.

 

[The Ghost of Stealin Stan]

I think Wax is saying that Hyde mentioned being doused but didn't say anything beyond that. I'm really not sure why that wouldn't get mentioned in the thread here though

very disappointing if so, but yeah it's starting to look that way

 

[The Ghost of Stealin Stan]

alien's case on pazzo: don't see it. seems entirely based on mutual town reads with gnome, which is actually pretty rare for scum. still not sure about pazzo but would not vote there.

 

[The Ghost of Stealin Stan]

on kookL i guess i see it, and i see that cat wanted to flip her, which is the main thing that sways me in that direction. but it feels too insubstantial to me. town do change their minds. i don't see it as a good/helpful bus for scum the way she wavered on char gar, feels more like indecisive town to me. that said i trust cat a lot, so i would be ok with seeing the flip.

pazzo's argument that san fran is suspicious for dropping the scum read of kook that was based on connections & switching to pushing kook as the arsonist-- i could see it, but it only really works if san fran was protecting kook. otherwise scum san fran would go for kook's throat today, perfect set up. san fran does feel kind of off to me, but i would go for kook first before her.

 

[The Ghost of Stealin Stan]

Town:
Wax Phantom
Captain Skunk

Town leans:
Boo Beard
Snow Ghost
Snow Creature

Used to be a town lean but now i'm less and less sure:
Lightning

Others in order of least to most willing to vote:
neon
pazzo
alien
san fran
space kook
woodsman

vote: woodsman

 

[Spooky Space Kook]

hmm. Some cases today. Gonna play some vidya with the hubs and then I have some good catching up to do, but I’ll be around later.

Really interested in seeing if Woodsman and Kook produce anything meaningful, considering we are seeing some effort now from some folks who have this far laid low.

Hey San, can you explain your thought process on me a little bit more? I know why you suspect me, but I more mean why I moved down from top of your list to possible arsonist. Your play today feels a bit different compared to past days so I'm just trying to see what you're coming from on that or what changed

 

[Spooky Space Kook]

Gonna throw out another updated reads list, best feeling at top but in general I don't feel bad about very many people :

Wax Phantom - Confirmed town mason
Boo Beard - still affected by my perception of end of Day 1 stuff, I need to take a closer look at these 2 but for now I still feel okay about them
Alien - same as above
Stealin Stan - Created the theory that led to people questioning Char Gar more and ultimately helping with the flip of scum
Skunkbeard - Feels pretty dang town, I felt kind of iffy on Skunk originally but I've felt a lot better on her the past day or so
Lightning - Still somewhat concerned that he's the arsonist (and I always will be) but his play beyond that has been fairly towny and he had a vote on Char EoD2 that felt pretty towny. Floating the idea to let Char live was kind of weird, but would be weirder for scum to propose unless they were on verge of victory
Neon Phantom - Feels like there's been genuine scumhunting here as well
Snow Creature - Has some bold theories that feel like a lot of thought went into them. I don't think the logic in all of the theories is quite connecting with me, but I feel like I'm seeing genuine scumhunting
Snow Ghost - Slightly town leaning here
Pazzo - Feels town but the posts surrounding San could be mafia trying to point us at someone that there's friction around already
San - Overall play feels pretty towny. The confrontations with other players have had me wondering if some are manufactured in an attempt to cover up scum relationships, and I'm sure OMGUS is partially coloring my perception on why I bumped her down slightly
Woodsman - The case has been laid out quite a bit already but as I mentioned before a lot of the play feels overly calculated. Feels a little scummy


So my big reads list is really just I'm suspicious of San and Pazzo, and scum reading Woodsman at the moment. I'm heading off to bed, so I'll expand on these in the morning as they're admittedly rather short and lacking details, but I wanted to have something out there for now

 

[San Franpsycho]

Wow, I think this is the first time I've had to do significant catchup. Glad to see some votes finally on Woodsman. Was starting to feel like people were willing to shade but not vote.

 

[Snow Ghost]

1) I'd love a breakdown of my reaction vs. Sans to the theory presented by Stan, and in what way I avoided the "meat" of it. I actually think I'm one of the few that engaged with it in a more significant manner. Most people either just shrugged and voted, or waffled and avoided like Sans did. I still stand by my argument that there's no way Tech gossiped with Ghost Bear N1. I mean hell, part of Stan's argument is that TP townread Ghost Bear but said he was okay with voting CCG, when TP literally said in his supposed defense of Ghost Bear post that he would vote for Ghost Bear lol Stan argued that he never actually did vote him, so it doesn't count but like... he also didn't vote CCG?

2) What do you think about Sans dropping Kook? I don't think you responded to that at all.

3) What were scum doing at the end of D1 in this world? We have confirmed scum Gnome on Anthos, and then in the argument you're painting you'd have BooBeard self-presing. CCG is off in no man's land. I unvoted Boo, but I'm also the reason the train even started because his shit stank until he came out with the truth as corroborated by Alien. Did scum just risk letting Boo die D1 or is there a third on the Anthos wagon? Honestly, the only real way I see it making sense is if it really is Boo + Alien both as scum after all and it was a gambit from the jump and Boo isn't actually new. Like if you're scum, in a costume game, as a newbie and your teammates somehow tell you "yeah, give up the free pass and less scrutinizing eye being a newbie grants you" then wtf are you even doing lol I can't even make it jive with my Sans is scum read because there's no way in hell she wouldn't have told Boo to cut it out in scum chat earlier than was done.

1) I might compare different reactions to Stan's idea at some point but I doubt I have the time to spare for it. No promises. The meat that was avoided:

Stan had two weapons against Char, one relevant and one irrelevant. You attacked the latter and ignored the former. The former alone was enough to call Char's gossip claim into question, whether the latter did or did not happen did not matter.

"Tech did not chat with Char N1, because he never gave hints about it, even when Char got some heat during the day end. Char is lying." Relevant, as the absence of evidence is more than just conjecture.
"Tech chatted with GB on N1, thus Char is lying." Irrelevant, as there was nothing concrete, just conjecture, pointing towards it.

Your posts, focusing on the irrelevant bit:

I'm struggling on buying into this current Char theory, primarily because if you're a weak cop and you're checking Ghost Bear who never did anything to look town then you're crumbing that shit. It would honestly be heinous play to throw yourself into what easily could be your death and not crumb it. On top of that... are we to believe Ghost Bear actually convinced Tech they were so absolutely town that Tech would pass on offing them just to be safe? It just seems really implausible especially when combined with the lack of a second death that night.

Not everyone breadcrumbs is absolutely true, but if you’re a weak role and using it to check scummy people then you’re either leaving a hint or trash at the game. It’s not a “style” thing in that scenario.

And I still don’t see any way Ghost Bear would remotely convince someone of his towniness - I mean we sure as hell didn’t find him particularly town. It’s not like he had some good role claim to rely on either. Your theory assumes scum got gossiped N2, convinced Tech they were town, found out who his N1 target was, it was conveniently one of the only dead players, and they went ahead and used their shot on a gossip because...reasons or got perfectly blocked. That’s a lot of leaps to make. If there was additional reasoning that wasn’t just some Lifeline esque conspiracy theory maybe I’d feel better about exploring that path, but it just seems like frustrated town Geno. His D1 play was very similar to the last game and we know how that turned out lol

2) I cropped some bits off that I did not yet have an opinion on or considered not that interesting. That's one of the former and I need to look into it as a part of the Sans day end solving thing.

3) Scum were doing something, there is not enough information to know what. If I had to offer a theory on it, I think it could've been a mix of abandoning ship and hoping that town towns. "Don't defend him in a overeager manner but look for a way out for him. Above all, make sure that you don't get caught in the blast."

Boo's train is clean as long as I calm down the paranoia within me about Stan, thus the rest of the scum gang were elsewhere. Five scum seems reasonable, so we are missing two. My theory above suggests that those two would be within the pool of: Neon, Kook, you and Woody. More confident and controlling scum would put one more to the Anthos train to save Boo, leaving the final scum to be found within that pool of four. Interesting analysis for sure, but with this amount of unknowns, I can't really draw any cool conclusions from it.

 

[Pazzo the Ghost Clown]

I’m drunk but provide the specifics. Counter what I’m saying with specific statements not generic statements. What specifically was the meat of the argument I avoided? What did Tech do in regards to Ghost Bear that wasn’t done in regards to Char? You’re using vague statements can it can’t tell if you’re just dancing around what I’m saying or if I’m too drunk to follow your short hand

 

[San Franpsycho]

Okay, so re: Kook, here's where I was between phases when I was reading back. This really kept coming back to me. The way Snow G puts it together feels overwrought. My first thought was to dismiss it - I was pretty focused on that d2 thing with Char. But then I started thinking: what has Kook done? Where's focus been?

Spooky Space Kook

I remember so little about her. The arsonist? Rather inoffensive really. If Char flips red, that D2(?) vote against him feels relatively green to me. The reasoning for it on the day after ain't that green though, just doing things for the sake of doing things. Acting, not solving. Minor scum lean even if Char flips green because I see no reason to town read her.

ok humour me a bit:

teehee it is i the arsonist and i am happy that i hit my target :D

ok but really why no gas n1 :(

must remember to avoid the word "arsonist" that way nobody can accuse me of knowing too much :)

Yeah that some good paranoid stuff there me, well done. Real arsonist, please tell me if you enjoyed this theory by quoting this post thanks.

Way back in this post (it's done as a quote so I can't quote it, just go look), Kook puts up an early read list. It's good early activity, pretty meaty appearing. Well, it's the first time Kook ever so much as mentioned Gnome. He and Woodsman are in the bottom part of the readlist - Gnome actually higher if they're ordered, btw - but the post focuses only on Woodsman and Baba, not Gnome. Baba gets the most detail.

This was right before the red check, so it was D3 before Kook ever so much as mentioned Gnome. Not ONE word, not one quote, nothing at all, but Geno had gone up in her readslist somehow after voting him the day before.

So at this point, Kook has gone after Geno (mafia) in the softest way possible, was now on Gnome (mafia) with zero case, and had Woodsman (pretty sure is mafia) down far on the list as scum.

So Kook is either the god reader who is god reading without doing a single bit of work in the thread or there's something else afoot (like doing all your work and strategizing away from the thread because you have something to hide). Because while she had all these... she didn't pursue any of them, and still isn't. Where is she on Woodsman? Nowhere; she's talking about me. What changed there?

Lots, but not per Kook's reads. She's sus on me, though I was the first one to open on Woodsman today, her biggest scumread, but in her read of me, she just says I'm towny and she might have some OMGUS... but then I'm highlighted at the bottom of the post. Why?

Here's the tl;dr:

I really don't think Kook is town. I was pretty convinced that she was mafia and then moreso when I started to look at the Gnome stuff - I though oh, she was prepping a soft bus, just like on Char, but then the red happened. It just felt - much like Woodsman - too perfect. That record is too good. But that post from Snow G kept coming back up in my head. What has Kook done outside of this?

Honestly... nothing. But there was a fair amount of talk about the arsonist. That's a good place for scum to hide, yeah. But it's also a good place for the scum arsonist to hide. And you know who hasn't been doused so far, apparently? Mafia. And who has one of the single best records so far at spotting mafia but not really moving on them? Kook.

I know this is maybe a little far-fetched, but slowly picking off town while town cannibalizes scum is an excellent strategy for an arsonist. It keeps things balanced and keeps everyone thrown off track.

But I'd ask folks to go back and look at what Kook has done the past two days. What do you see? Do you see solving that backs up this record?

Kook and Woodsman are my top two suspects, for similar reasons - lack of engagement that backs up their vote records. Bussing explains it. But with Kook's even better record, so might an arsonist who wants to keep things balanced but not be the kind of town leader who gets killed in the night.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

I’m drunk but provide the specifics. Counter what I’m saying with specific statements not generic statements. What specifically was the meat of the argument I avoided? What did Tech do in regards to Ghost Bear that wasn’t done in regards to Char? You’re using vague statements can it can’t tell if you’re just dancing around what I’m saying or if I’m too drunk to follow your short hand

Am I the only one concernd pazzo is drunk every night

 

[San Franpsycho]

Am I the only one concernd pazzo is drunk every night

What if we didn't pass judgment on what other people do with their time and their bodies and left it at that.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

VOTE:Spooky Space Kook

 

[Lightning Strikes]

What if we didn't pass judgment on what other people do with their time and their bodies and left it at that.

I just hope is ok. Not judging