Zippedpinhead
Zip it!
Good Evening Scientists.
There should be two of you here.
There should be two of you here.
Pair Thread The Map Room - Night 5 Chat (Hedin/Hawthorn)
- Thread starter Zippedpinhead
- Start date
- Status
Hawthorn
I'll explain my reasons later
Hey Hedin. Hope you're having a fun time camping! No worries if you don't have much time to chat. I had a terrible time keeping up with the thread while I was on vacation, so I get it.
If you're here to infect me, please tell me. I doubt Random would/could protect the same person twice in a row. I'm cool with it if I'm being infected!
Otherwise, I'll assume you're town for the purpose of posting my thoughts, since I would be posting all this in the thread anyway.
Did you notice that Ambulance's flip said "you are now assimilated into The Thing"? As opposed to the previous flips which said "you are a Thing." I think it's clear that Natiko and Chuggs were Original Things, while Ambulance was infected at some point. That means that Chuggs did choose to stay home, since no town have claimed it -- if it wasn't his ability, then it was a teammate. It's obvious there have been significant redactions from the scum flips, since they have no info on how infection works.
If contact tracing is real, here's how it could have played out:
N1:
Nat - > Ambulance or Blarg
Chugg - > ? (EC, Random, Vere, Hedin, nin, anex, Loki)
N2:
Ambulance <-> Blarg
Nat failed to infect Kyan
Chugg -> Hedin?
? -> ? (EC <-> Random, or nin <-> Loki) (Vere was paired with me & anex with Neki; neither infection would have been successful since both were later cleared)
N3:
Ambulance and Chugg got each other, so no new infection.
Blarg - > Loki (in a group chat, but Z-Beat was cleared).
EC <-> nin, Vere -> Kyan, or Hedini -> HP (Random was with Neki, anex with Mazre)
N4:
No infection due to shelter in place.
Leaving scum pool of: Blarg + up to 4 of (EC, Random, Vere, Hedin, nin, anex, Loki, Kyan, HP)
As you can see, you appear in this possible pool of infection multiple times.
I have some suspicions of you, so if you believe in contact tracing, I think you should consider claiming right now. I was confirmed town on D3, isolated N3, then N4 we all sheltered in place. I can't be infected tonight if you are town and contact tracing is real. I won't repeat your claim in the main thread if it could hurt town, but if I find it believable then it could help me narrow down the list of potential scum.
If you're here to infect me, please tell me. I doubt Random would/could protect the same person twice in a row. I'm cool with it if I'm being infected!
Otherwise, I'll assume you're town for the purpose of posting my thoughts, since I would be posting all this in the thread anyway.
Did you notice that Ambulance's flip said "you are now assimilated into The Thing"? As opposed to the previous flips which said "you are a Thing." I think it's clear that Natiko and Chuggs were Original Things, while Ambulance was infected at some point. That means that Chuggs did choose to stay home, since no town have claimed it -- if it wasn't his ability, then it was a teammate. It's obvious there have been significant redactions from the scum flips, since they have no info on how infection works.
If contact tracing is real, here's how it could have played out:
N1:
Nat - > Ambulance or Blarg
Chugg - > ? (EC, Random, Vere, Hedin, nin, anex, Loki)
N2:
Ambulance <-> Blarg
Nat failed to infect Kyan
Chugg -> Hedin?
? -> ? (EC <-> Random, or nin <-> Loki) (Vere was paired with me & anex with Neki; neither infection would have been successful since both were later cleared)
N3:
Ambulance and Chugg got each other, so no new infection.
Blarg - > Loki (in a group chat, but Z-Beat was cleared).
EC <-> nin, Vere -> Kyan, or Hedini -> HP (Random was with Neki, anex with Mazre)
N4:
No infection due to shelter in place.
Leaving scum pool of: Blarg + up to 4 of (EC, Random, Vere, Hedin, nin, anex, Loki, Kyan, HP)
As you can see, you appear in this possible pool of infection multiple times.
I have some suspicions of you, so if you believe in contact tracing, I think you should consider claiming right now. I was confirmed town on D3, isolated N3, then N4 we all sheltered in place. I can't be infected tonight if you are town and contact tracing is real. I won't repeat your claim in the main thread if it could hurt town, but if I find it believable then it could help me narrow down the list of potential scum.
Please make sure you check the updated day end post as there was an error in the initial posting.
Hawthorn
I'll explain my reasons later
Thanks for alerting us, ATP!
OK, the above infection tree I posted is still a valid possibility, but it's now unclear who was/were the original thing, so I'm now reconsidering my previous favorite theory:
N1:
Natiko <-> Ambulance
N2:
Ambulance -> Blarg
Nat's infection didn't go through because he died
N3:
Ambulance -> Chugg
Blarg -> Loki, if the three-person chat worked
Short and sweet. It's possible, but I'm glad I'm considering either possibilities as well. Hedin, you are still in my pool of suspicion, so what I said in the previous post about suggesting you should claim still goes, but I would also be interested just to hear your thoughts. No worries if you don't get the chance to say much due to camping though.
OK, the above infection tree I posted is still a valid possibility, but it's now unclear who was/were the original thing, so I'm now reconsidering my previous favorite theory:
N1:
Natiko <-> Ambulance
N2:
Ambulance -> Blarg
Nat's infection didn't go through because he died
N3:
Ambulance -> Chugg
Blarg -> Loki, if the three-person chat worked
Short and sweet. It's possible, but I'm glad I'm considering either possibilities as well. Hedin, you are still in my pool of suspicion, so what I said in the previous post about suggesting you should claim still goes, but I would also be interested just to hear your thoughts. No worries if you don't get the chance to say much due to camping though.
I really wish we knew how the infection works, annoying that the PMs haven't revealed that. Like does every infected get to infect? Is it only the first? Is it a chain (first infects second, who then infects the third, etc)? I started to write out the scenario below and didn't know where to go with N2 because of that. If Blarg flips infected I'm going to assume it's a chain because Ambulance to Blarg is how it went but that's also assuming it wasn't Ambulance who infected Nat first.
Damn this is complicated.
N1 - Nat & Chugg are both OG infectors, both infect = 4 scum
N2 - Ambulance infects Blarg, Chugg #2 infects Chugg #3, Nat dies = 5 scum
N3 - Blarg infects loki? (Z beat was cleared), Chugg #3 infects Chugg #4 = 7 scum
D4 - Chugg dies = 6 scum
N4 -???
D5 - Ambulance dies = 5 scum?
N5 - loki? infects?, Chugg #4 infects? (I have no idea or did they get recruits N4? If they got recruits N4 then it's over tonight.
That feels like too much. Game design wise you would typically avoid having scum be able to win in 4 days & nights in their best case scenario. Also feel like if there was really 7 scum in D4 we should have done better than 1/4.
My guess is that there was just 1 original infectors. The split on N1 without a vote was a way for them to get a little footing before the testing began. If Blarg flips infected tomorrow that seems to show a straight path between everyone we have flipped so far. But I am wary that it seems too easy. Flipping 3 scum is definitely good town work that should be rewarded but not knowing if anything happened N4 is going to complicate things.
Damn this is complicated.
N1 - Nat & Chugg are both OG infectors, both infect = 4 scum
N2 - Ambulance infects Blarg, Chugg #2 infects Chugg #3, Nat dies = 5 scum
N3 - Blarg infects loki? (Z beat was cleared), Chugg #3 infects Chugg #4 = 7 scum
D4 - Chugg dies = 6 scum
N4 -???
D5 - Ambulance dies = 5 scum?
N5 - loki? infects?, Chugg #4 infects? (I have no idea or did they get recruits N4? If they got recruits N4 then it's over tonight.
That feels like too much. Game design wise you would typically avoid having scum be able to win in 4 days & nights in their best case scenario. Also feel like if there was really 7 scum in D4 we should have done better than 1/4.
My guess is that there was just 1 original infectors. The split on N1 without a vote was a way for them to get a little footing before the testing began. If Blarg flips infected tomorrow that seems to show a straight path between everyone we have flipped so far. But I am wary that it seems too easy. Flipping 3 scum is definitely good town work that should be rewarded but not knowing if anything happened N4 is going to complicate things.
As for claiming I'm still not going to do it. No one will be able to convince me that anyone claiming was good for town within this game setup and I will just say there has been a reason why I am so personally against it. I know that's a deeply unsatisfying answer I will just say that post game it should become apparent (and I know how that sounds, just have to play it the best way I see fit).
Wait, almost asleep sudden thought. If Blarg flips that would mean every infected person had direct contact with Ambulance. He was in away with Nat N1, Blarg N2, and Chugg N3. That seems to imply that Ambulance was the original and was the one actually doing the infecting. So then what happens now that Ambulance is gone? Does Blarg become the infector now instead? That would make more sense than only loki being infected and not Z-Beat when all three of them share a chat.
Hawthorn
I'll explain my reasons later
I understand about not claiming -- I'm certainly not going to pressure you to do it. I will say that I have a strong town lean on you, but you did have overnight contact with Chuggs, so you're going to continue to be in the pool of possible suspects.
So little is known about how infection works. I had been pretty sure it was exponential, but that was when I thought that the 4-test-days were going to be a regular thing as a counter. Now it seems like too much power to scum, so I think either they have some limited number of infection shots or only one person has the infecting power-- as you say, likely Ambulance. I said from the beginning that if Ambulance was going to pick someone in our away team chat to be his scum partner, I think he would pick Nat.
I also think there was probably only one original infector. If there were two, they have to have had some kind of limit put on their abilities to stop massive overgrowth too early.
From your posts I'm getting the sense that you still think contact tracing is the way to go. I do too, absent paranoid theories about it leading us in totally the wrong direction.
I think the plan for tomorrow should be:
1. Make sure EVERYONE has checked in and claimed their night chats. Critical to do this on the same day, before more people get infected.
2. Turbo Blarg
3. Assess Blarg's flip -- he will almost certainly be mafia, meaning he would be the first scum flip not to have claimed dog. Maybe it'll be revealing?
4. Take the full following day to assess the flips and theorize. Then it should probably be Loki or whoever Blarg is in a chat with right now, but I don't want to take a firm position this far ahead, since I don't want to walk into a chain of reasoning without planning to reassess.
So little is known about how infection works. I had been pretty sure it was exponential, but that was when I thought that the 4-test-days were going to be a regular thing as a counter. Now it seems like too much power to scum, so I think either they have some limited number of infection shots or only one person has the infecting power-- as you say, likely Ambulance. I said from the beginning that if Ambulance was going to pick someone in our away team chat to be his scum partner, I think he would pick Nat.
I also think there was probably only one original infector. If there were two, they have to have had some kind of limit put on their abilities to stop massive overgrowth too early.
From your posts I'm getting the sense that you still think contact tracing is the way to go. I do too, absent paranoid theories about it leading us in totally the wrong direction.
I think the plan for tomorrow should be:
1. Make sure EVERYONE has checked in and claimed their night chats. Critical to do this on the same day, before more people get infected.
2. Turbo Blarg
3. Assess Blarg's flip -- he will almost certainly be mafia, meaning he would be the first scum flip not to have claimed dog. Maybe it'll be revealing?
4. Take the full following day to assess the flips and theorize. Then it should probably be Loki or whoever Blarg is in a chat with right now, but I don't want to take a firm position this far ahead, since I don't want to walk into a chain of reasoning without planning to reassess.
I need to go back an really examine her day yesterday but my initial impression was that it was a lot better than she had been doing and made me feel better about her.
I think they could be masons or lovers.
For the turbo today I would at least like everyone to check in to see if they have anything new and then I am good with speeding the process along. Normally I would like to wait at least 24 hrs to get some discussion going on but with this game because of the mechanics it feels like we keep going over the same talking points.
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