Nightless Spec Chat

Natiko

Natiko

Town's Friendly Neighborhood Serial Killer
Be nice! And enjoy the unusual setup for our community.
 
Fanto

Fanto

Confirmed Town
Fireblend said:
Anyway, I was playing with the numbers since this is such a small game and I'm curious. I ran a bunch of montecarlo simulations on how reliably and/or fast we can expect to find mafia if we randomly sample N players from the full pool and stick to choosing our kills solely from that pool. For every random sample of size N between 1 and 11, I wanted to know:
  • What's the probability there's mafia in that sample.
  • How many mafia are there on average in that sample.
  • When there *is* at least one mafia, how many random shots does it take to find the first?
I'm not sure if this is useful, maybe just a curiosity, but here are my findings:

Code: 
>>> Sample size: 1
On average there are 0.27703 mafia members in random group (in 27703 of 100k simulations)
On average the first mafia member was found after 0.0 random choices

>>> Sample size: 2
On average there are 0.5463 mafia members in random group (in 49105 of 100k simulations)
On average the first mafia member was found after 0.4412585276448427 random choices

>>> Sample size: 3
On average there are 0.8165 mafia members in random group (in 65938 of 100k simulations)
On average the first mafia member was found after 0.8399708817373897 random choices

>>> Sample size: 4
On average there are 1.09598 mafia members in random group (in 79075 of 100k simulations)
On average the first mafia member was found after 1.1901738855516915 random choices

>>> Sample size: 5
On average there are 1.36525 mafia members in random group (in 88048 of 100k simulations)
On average the first mafia member was found after 1.4854284026894422 random choices

>>> Sample size: 6
On average there are 1.63678 mafia members in random group (in 93920 of 100k simulations)
On average the first mafia member was found after 1.711914395229983 random choices

>>> Sample size: 7
On average there are 1.90853 mafia members in random group (in 97554 of 100k simulations)
On average the first mafia member was found after 1.8616766098776063 random choices

>>> Sample size: 8
On average there are 2.18431 mafia members in random group (in 99427 of 100k simulations)
On average the first mafia member was found after 1.9634103412553934 random choices

>>> Sample size: 9
On average there are 2.45294 mafia members in random group (in 100000 of 100k simulations)
On average the first mafia member was found after 2.00874 random choices

>>> Sample size: 10
On average there are 2.72703 mafia members in random group (in 100000 of 100k simulations)
On average the first mafia member was found after 1.99893 random choices

>>> Sample size: 11
On average there are 3.0 mafia members in random group (in 100000 of 100k simulations)
On average the first mafia member was found after 1.99702 random choices

What it could *possibly* mean is we could gamble on the N=4 or 5 results, hope that by selecting that number of random players and sticking to it we fall into the 79%-88% percent of games where there's mafia *and* we find them within our second random choice lol
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91BAAcQ.gif
 
L

Lone_Prodigy

Am I at 10 posts yet?
Will be interesting to see how long the day goes with no deadline. Everyone usually can't wait for D1 to end so someone gets voted out.
 
Faddy

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
Oh god.

Booo! to the meanie who shot ATP.

should have shot HP
 
Faddy

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
shooting immediately is the pro way to play right?

either that or the shooting maf needs to be constantly checking if they are about to die.

I actually think some of the more active players would have held the shot to be 1 or 2 from majority and reset the vote count.
 
Faddy

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
Lone_Prodigy said:
Will be interesting to see how long the day goes with no deadline. Everyone usually can't wait for D1 to end so someone gets voted out.
Click to expand...

Starting this on a friday evening is the blurst of times. I can easily see no majority until monday.
 
Natiko

Natiko

Town's Friendly Neighborhood Serial Killer
Fireblend said:
natiko fanto what were you thinking picking this setup lol
Click to expand...
It’s almost as if the point I made in the Nier spec chat about being overly focused on an arbitrary day end being a shortcoming of our community is being proven out in real time.. hmm.. nah, can’t be.
 
Natiko

Natiko

Town's Friendly Neighborhood Serial Killer
Looking quite possible we go through three full days without majority being reached lol
 
Faddy

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
hasn't even been 72 hours yet.

i remember when that was a normal length day 1.
 
Zippedpinhead

Zippedpinhead

Zip it!
I even thought my are they here thing was a pretty smart town play. I mean you do have to be logged in to send the kill, it couldn't happen before hand because it was during the day.

I'm not 100% sure why I got targeted like I did, outside of people not wanting to see cute photos of puppy dogs...
 
Zippedpinhead

Zippedpinhead

Zip it!
Natiko said:
It’s almost as if the point I made in the Nier spec chat about being overly focused on an arbitrary day end being a shortcoming of our community is being proven out in real time.. hmm.. nah, can’t be.
Click to expand...
I posted something similar in Scum chat, town in this community is SOOOOOOO anti-hammer, it just makes scum avoid the hammer as much as possible too. and then you have people like myself who LOVE to hammer.

its a vicious cycle of not ending a day when it needs to.
 
Zippedpinhead

Zippedpinhead

Zip it!
Oh and I forgot to compliment Fireblend but I really like the new additions to the vote tool.


OO OO OO
AND....

It doesn't get blocked by my works VPN anymore (at least as far as I can tell)
 
Natiko

Natiko

Town's Friendly Neighborhood Serial Killer
Yeah, I’m not sure I personally would’ve gone with the two quick kills but I can understand the desire to limit exposure and reduce the risk of losing the kill(s). I think I would’ve maybe done a Day 2 immediate kill and then tried to hold the last one for a bit. Scum gonna have to do it the hard way here on - all miselims.
 
Hedin

Hedin

Oops, All Scum!
Staff member
Zippedpinhead said:
the one night I decide to go to bed early, I miss that Hedin is at hammer...


yes big oof indeed
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I was serious, I probably would not have shot if I was voted out. Maybe I would have changed my mind if it happened but I was not intending to do it.

Zippedpinhead said:
I even thought my are they here thing was a pretty smart town play. I mean you do have to be logged in to send the kill, it couldn't happen before hand because it was during the day.

I'm not 100% sure why I got targeted like I did, outside of people not wanting to see cute photos of puppy dogs...
Click to expand...

I just really thought that you were intentionally trying to sow confusion with how you started the day. And then just felt like you ghosted a bit and didn't engage as much afterwards, felt like you were hoping the heat would go away. Also it was D1 and it wasn't a super strong read but it was the most I had to go on.
 
Hedin

Hedin

Oops, All Scum!
Staff member
I would have rolled the dice and see if I could have kept a shot until the end.
 
Zippedpinhead

Zippedpinhead

Zip it!
Knowing my partners, we did NOT want to have a player die with any shots. So we were always going to use them first few days.
 
Hedin

Hedin

Oops, All Scum!
Staff member
Only 9 players of course but town should be a lot more active after a flip than this.
 
Faddy

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
I think there was potential in the 2 scum trains theory and would have kept hedin alive. Make town ask why zipped didn't hammer him.

I really think people would have bought into hedin being smart enough to distance knowing that 1 well hidden scum wins the game. Probably says Hedin had suspicion of another mafia at some point.

Holding the 2nd shot would probably have been a good idea unless you think the killing maf is in real danger of being turbo'd
 
Hedin

Hedin

Oops, All Scum!
Staff member
Well I guess that was too obvious.

If we want to with Faddy's theory Sawneeks is the other one I called out.
 
Faddy

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
Hedin said:
Well I guess that was too obvious.

If we want to with Faddy's theory Sawneeks is the other one I called out.
Click to expand...

Sawneeks was the big switch away from you though. Maybe mafia did plan the bus rather than protect Zipped who would have probably been shot anyway.
 
Zippedpinhead

Zippedpinhead

Zip it!
Hedin, I think scum not hammering you last night is blowing some players minds

oh and yeah, the goal is both getting tired always, but the 1 year old can’t run yet…
 
LaunchpadMcQ

LaunchpadMcQ

...can I smell you?
Donnie is definitely town here. That overzealous attitude gave it away. Newbies can be trepidatious as town or scum, but I don't think they usually go out the gate that strongly thinking they've got the upper hand on solving without the alignment.

I'm going to say Chuggs is town here after reading that reads post, also.

I think Sneeks is scum. I can't know for sure, but her actions and attitude don't sit right in my gut.
 
Faddy

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
LaunchpadMcQ said:
I think Sneeks is scum. I can't know for sure, but her actions and attitude don't sit right in my gut.
Click to expand...

Yeah i thought the way she reacted to zipped's flip was weird.

She said she would take the L, when she was responsible for the switch that got him. I think town sneeks would be more pumped.
 
Fanto

Fanto

Confirmed Town
I think this game is going to settle in to a nice little mystery for Town to solve. It's not going to be an open and shut case for them, but they aren't hopeless either.
 
Zippedpinhead

Zippedpinhead

Zip it!
I agree, this game is fully solvable with a couple more days (I think it would be a great leap if it got fully solved now).

Scum has their work cut out for themed and so does town. This game is going to be tough for both teams
 
LaunchpadMcQ

LaunchpadMcQ

...can I smell you?
Your two messages make me think that at least one of the scum isn’t even being looked at - which makes me jump immediately to HP. His posts line up with my expectations for his scum play. Chuggs is the other person not being discussed seriously, but reads less like scum to me right now.

Alexem reads really town to me, also, so I’ll take him out for now.

Donnie going for all the WIFOM scum (intentionally or unintentionally) left out :(

HP and Sneeks are who I’m going with as scum for right now.
 
Zippedpinhead

Zippedpinhead

Zip it!
Everyone needs to vote in a clockless game. And some of the players aren't which slows the game down.

I like the clockless system, because it disincentives' "let's wait until XXX shows up" talk. It's nice to wait for all the players, but a lot of our players use it as a crutch to move the game closer to the last 1/2 hr (where most of the crazy happens anyway).

Makes me wonder if there is a setup exists where we have a full day/night cycle followed by a 30 minute lightning round day/night (with no post minimums obviously).
 
Hedin

Hedin

Oops, All Scum!
Staff member
He is covering his ass with the hammer. Also has not engaged at all but shows up during hammer time.
 
Zippedpinhead

Zippedpinhead

Zip it!
I think it was three, but it was also non-town roles in general (two scum and then a winning neutral run).

also NIN what are you doing?!?!?!?!?
 
heymonkey

heymonkey

Known Roblox Expert
Staff member
LaunchpadMcQ said:
Donnie is definitely town here. That overzealous attitude gave it away. Newbies can be trepidatious as town or scum, but I don't think they usually go out the gate that strongly thinking they've got the upper hand on solving without the alignment.
Click to expand...
this. i really think he is and it's that same "cover all possible angles" thing that so many new players do before they realize people hate it (or uh they stay stubborn and cling), but he's excitedly and naturally solving. i can't scumread him here. if i'm wrong, i'm wrong.

nin tho, they need to at least wagon him immediately and see what happens with votes so they can get a grip on wtf that was.
 
Natiko

Natiko

Town's Friendly Neighborhood Serial Killer
This game is wild. Yeah, the activity has been low at times but that honestly doesn’t feel as bad since it’s a low player count and they aren’t under a time constraint? I’m curious to see what people think all told. I kind of want to run another game with these types of rules (nightless, majority only).
 
Hedin

Hedin

Oops, All Scum!
Staff member
Sawneeks said:
Sometimes I hate playing this game because it means I don't sleep and instead think about it...

It's 1:00 a.m. I need to sleep. I hate / love this game.
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Yuuuuuup. It's cool when a game sucks you in and you just laying in bed running through various things. But I also really enjoy sleeping, especially a proper night's sleep.
 
heymonkey

heymonkey

Known Roblox Expert
Staff member
I dream about mafia when I play but my dreams are always a little not-right (because dreams) so I always have to clear my head in the morning and remember what's real and what just happened in my dreams lol.
 
heymonkey

heymonkey

Known Roblox Expert
Staff member
Sneeks, WHY is HP "cleared" omg no

ANYWAY despite a lot of people acting weirdly scummy, I do think there are some good town tells if people look... but idk if they're gonna.
 
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Fanto

Fanto

Confirmed Town
heymonkey said:
ANYWAY despite a lot of people acting weirdly scummy, I do think there are some good town tells if people look...
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Mhmm, obviously I already know who's who, but, I can also still tell which townies are being very town out there lol.
 
heymonkey

heymonkey

Known Roblox Expert
Staff member
Fanto said:
Mhmm, obviously I already know who's who, but, I can also still tell which townies are being very town out there lol.
Click to expand...
There’s one really obvious sign but no one ever believes me when I point to it. wack
 
heymonkey

heymonkey

Known Roblox Expert
Staff member
LaunchpadMcQ said:
not sure how deep into BEC territory I am here, but everything Sneeks says reads so scummy to me
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She’s coming off badly but she’s town. Lots of that going around.
I just want to holler that no one could hammer because they were too busy bussing and protecting themselves ahhhhhhh
 
Hedin

Hedin

Oops, All Scum!
Staff member
LaunchpadMcQ said:
not sure how deep into BEC territory I am here, but everything Sneeks says reads so scummy to me
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Sneeks has brought herself into my Reki Zone. Reki is someone that I always find scummy early and then get better about later. I'm not sure what exactly it is that puts them on my radar so early, I think it's just game style differences, but it's definitely something that I have to keep myself aware about.

In this game I thought she was being fairly scummy early and while I don't exactly feel real good about her I'm not really scum reading her at the minute.

Also, oof at Chugg and Sneeks bringing up HP and then dismissing it.
 
heymonkey

heymonkey

Known Roblox Expert
Staff member
Hedin said:
Sneeks has brought herself into my Reki Zone. Reki is someone that I always find scummy early and then get better about later. I'm not sure what exactly it is that puts them on my radar so early, I think it's just game style differences, but it's definitely something that I have to keep myself aware about.

In this game I thought she was being fairly scummy early and while I don't exactly feel real good about her I'm not really scum reading her at the minute.

Also, oof at Chugg and Sneeks bringing up HP and then dismissing it.
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yeah it's almost like there might be something there
probably in the one who's being kind of shitty for no good reason and who has barely engaged with the thread, kinda like HP
also the one who brought HP up and then dropped him again in the next (separate) post
huh
 
heymonkey

heymonkey

Known Roblox Expert
Staff member
sorry lol I am home recovering from a minor procedure and pain makes me hella snarky
but early on I kept noticing weird shit from Chuggs and wrote it off because he was at a thing and then he was in the hospital so i thought it was just that
but the way he ducks in, stirs up shit, ducks out, only shows up when he needs to, complains about passivity... not to get all meta, but it's big knives out chuggs energy
 
Hedin

Hedin

Oops, All Scum!
Staff member
heymonkey said:
sorry lol I am home recovering from a minor procedure and pain makes me hella snarky
but early on I kept noticing weird shit from Chuggs and wrote it off because he was at a thing and then he was in the hospital so i thought it was just that
but the way he ducks in, stirs up shit, ducks out, only shows up when he needs to, complains about passivity... not to get all meta, but it's big knives out chuggs energy
Click to expand...

It has been a really passive Chuggs for sure. I too have chalked it up to whatever he has going on outside the game but he's not really pushing much.
 
heymonkey

heymonkey

Known Roblox Expert
Staff member
They should do it today and agree to take the weekend off or agree to just mostly take the weekend off in general - and see if anyone posts anyway.
 
heymonkey

heymonkey

Known Roblox Expert
Staff member
Either way they need a break. But if they do the break before a kill, people interested in solving are likely to appear at least a little, especially if something occurs to them or if they think of a question. Scum are less likely to turn up or be invested, especially if embedded; they don't need to. Think night chat in EZA. But if they take a break right after a kill, unless they hit mafia (unlikely here), the lull is less likely to be readable; they'll treat it like a regular night phase, I think. A few people may post right after the flip but that'll probably be all. It'll be harder to read town tells then because it's really easy for someone to just say "RIP, we should have known x" and call it a day.
 
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