The Orchis Forge

[Alexem]

It's too quiet for my liking. Even putting timezones aside, I'd have thought that something would have said something by now.

I wonder who's shouting 'It's him!' louder - spec or the masons?

 

[Alexem]

Somebody would have said something, rather. (I might be the only person in this thread, but I'm still not going to break the editing rule, no matter how daft the typo!)

 

[Alexem]

I can't remember him doing it, either, but there's a first time for everything.

And I should know - ain't that right, readers!

 

[Alexem]

Hmm, I wonder which is going to get me the bigger kicking - mis-remembering the flavour claims, or the Sideshow Bob meme?

 

[Alexem]

Sparks - if you ever get to read this, as much as going for you is the best way to give my team a little bit of a win, I still feel that setting you up like this is very un-pojpo.

 

[Alexem]

I genuinely feel bad for pushing Sparks like this. If my thinking's correct and he really is covering for being the SK, then it's such a shame that he's tried the fake claim - with two scum down in the first two days in a game where there can't be more than three, he could have openly claimed his role and offered his services as a vig. If he'd done that, he could almost certainly have gone for an easy win by siding with town.

 

[Alexem]

Just in case I've completely bungled it and Sparks isn't the SK, then I might as well try and hit one of the non-green players overnight. It'll hasten the end of the game (not entirely a bad thing in my situation) and make the green players pretty much rock solid, but at least I'll have a one in three chance of beating the neutral - or at least tying if they shoot me. So, it would have to be one of:

• Natiko
• Zook
• Laoni

Would Natiko have taken a shot as soon as he subbed in? He might as well have, but he might just as easily have waited a night to see what everyone else did before checking in to the game himself. Zook said he was going to claim something during D2, but in the end went for vanilla - however, had things turned out differently, might he have offered his services as a town-friendly SK or claimed to be a vig? Lastly, there's Laoni - she's been very observant, and as I said earlier on, if she's the SK, then think she'd be able to come up with a decent survival strategy.

If Sparks really does flip blocker somehow, then yes - Laoni would be the obvious target to try out before I inevitably get dogpiled on D4 for setting up Sparks. I'd just have to hope that she, or whoever the SK is if it's not her, doesn't aim for me...

 

[Alexem]

I think that's it settled then - Sparks hasn't tried a gambit, I think it's just that he hasn't read the setup rules or understood them correctly. That's a shame, it's a very unfortunate way to go out.

 

[Alexem]

Kind of a Sword of Damocles moment, here. When Nat checks in, I think he'll either see my plan through and hammer Sparks, or he'll turn it around on me and see through what I'm up to. As I wasn't exactly in his good books at the start of the phase, I'm taking nothing for granted.

I'd like to think that the illogical nature of Sparks' claim should sway Natiko to voting him out, but I can think of another possibility - if Nat puts two and two together and works out that the last scum might see the SK as a threat, he could come in and pressure Sparks into claiming SK. After that, I think I'd have to thunderdome the two of us and try to convince the room that Sparks is still covering up that he's scum.

 

[Alexem]

Can't see Nat claiming anything other than vanilla town, nothing works out in terms of the roll - not that I can spell that out in the game thread, of course. As long as he does, I've just got to hope that my hunch about Sparks covering up being the SK is right. If not, I get one blind shot tonight and that's it.

 

[Alexem]

Best ploy to try and come in second place ever.

 

[Alexem]

That's détente, Sparks - we don't win, you don't win.

(But you lost before we did.)

 

[Alexem]

Well, it's all academic now - any chance of making it to the end game would have relied on Sparks whittling down enough players before I got caught, and I don't think there was enough time for that to happen anyway. The hit's academic, but I might as well do it properly.

No point in hitting Laoni, Zook or Natiko, since they're the vanilla pool. That leaves Hedin and the masons - Hedin's not been on to me much in this phase, but I think he'll work it out fairly quickly in the next one. Besides, he's essentially vanilla now. The masons, on the other hand, have a night chat - they're not going to need it after D4 (hell, they hardly need it now), but on point of principle I ought to go for one of them. Both of them have come after me at some point and they're both likely to work out it's me, so let's say...

KILL: Zippedpinhead

• He's been coming after me more aggressively than Stu.
• He said I'd voted for him when I'd voted for Zook - and worst of all...
• He keeps talking after bedtime.

 

[Chuggernaut]

Command received

 

[Alexem]

Rats, I was hoping that I'd be able to open wolf today and fold in time for the weekend! Can't really do that while they're thinking of voting out Zook, though - even hammering him (as I could now) might cross the line between resigning politely and throwing the game.

Strictly speaking, there's a road to victory here - if they were to boot Zook today and I take out Hedin or Stu tonight, then I could win tomorrow if they take out Laoni or Natiko. I don't think that's remotely likely, though, I'm pretty much either at or near the top of everyone's list, so unless Nat says something silly (which I doubt will happen) or everyone gets jumpy about Laoni doing so well, I'd be amazed if I didn't get voted out.

If I end up at hammer point and the room's pretty certain about me, then I'd rather fold and give everyone their weekend back than drag the game out needlessly. As long as they don't reach that stage, though, I'll float in the background and give them a chance to work it out.

 

[Alexem]

Something else that's just occurred to me is the timing. Even if I survive this phase, I don't think I'll be able to win a shoot-out because of when the day starts. To win, I'd need to jump on a bad vote as soon as it hits, but since the day will start at 1:00 am for me, it's going to be hours before I can get to the thread and watch for that vote. By the time that I get in, there'll have been plenty of time for me to be voted out.

 

[Alexem]

We should get a traitor for this thread. Who wants to be it? Don't say so! Just start being treacherous and we'll figure it out.

Oh god, it's so tempting...

 

[Chuggernaut]

Oh god, it's so tempting...

tell them about the mafia thread lmao

 

[Alexem]

tell them about the mafia thread lmao

I did! Someone mentioned that they used to enjoy forum mafia, so I pointed them in MafiEra's direction.

I've just had an idea. It's a hell of a gamble, but if I make it through today, I could take out one of the remaining vanilla players and thunderdome myself with the survivor. It's the ultimate WIFOM move, but it might, just might make somebody think twice about the possibility of it being me.

Will it work? Hell no. Am I tempted to try? Very.

 

[Alexem]

...Except that's not a great idea. If I could be around for the start of day, then it might work - I wait for someone to slip, then I drop the hammer. In this game, though, more or less everyone can make the start of day except for me. I'd be done for before breakfast.

Oh well, scratch that, I'll just have to go down the boring route. I'll throw it open for anyone reading this thread after the game's finished instead - if you ever find yourself in my situation and you can make it to the start of the day, go for it. Make me proud.

 

[Alexem]

I don't think it's going to matter whether I hammer or not at this point, I doubt it'll win me any points either way. Giving the room a chance to object might make it look a bit less opportunistic.

 

[Alexem]

Wait a minute, D5's going to be mis-hit and lose, isn't it? I wonder if they'll go for a no kill with so few players left in the game? (In all honesty, I highly doubt it - by now, I think Laoni's the only one who might possibly think I could be town, and I don't think she'll defend me that hard.)

 

[Alexem]

How many am I going to have to kill for talking after bedtime tonight?

 

[Alexem]

OK, that's going to look mega-shifty. Wouldn't object to going out on scum slip grounds after that!

 

[Alexem]

Actually, that is a genuine scum slip, isn't it? I should have hammered before anyone realised that I was thinking in terms of 50% control. Welp, dug my own hole now!

 

[Alexem]

Let's say that I make it through. I'm wondering whether or not Stu would be the better target. If he feels that Natiko is more suspicious than me, would killing him make it look like Nat did it, or would it look more like a double bluff and end up making it obvious that it's me?

 

[Alexem]

Gut feels incase I die in the night.

I'm leaning towards Nat over Alexem.

I don't know if it's intentional or not, but Stu's set a little trap for me here. Logically, I have to go for one of the green players, so that's a choice of Stu or Hedin. The question is, how will it look if I go for Stu?

Like I said in the previous post, if I take out Stu, it might look like Natiko's trying to frame me by shooting Stu not long after he said that Nat's his top pick. However, it might also look like I've willingly put Nat in the firing line by doing that. The alternative is to keep Stu alive - he might genuinely give me the edge over Nat, or he could take it as a pocketing attempt.

I don't really think that there's any right answer here, either choice is as risky as the other. If that's the case, I'm going to take my chances with keeping Stu in the game and see what happens.

KILL: MrHedin

If they skip the kill tomorrow, I'll have to decide whether I want to risk a shootout with Nat and Laoni or if I'd rather thunderdome myself with one of them and make Stu the kingmaker.

 

[Chuggernaut]

Command received. Would you be okay with starting the next day phase as soon as possible?

 

[Alexem]

Command received. Would you be okay with starting the next day phase as soon as possible?

That's fine by me - I don't think it's going to last long and Sunday phases are usually pretty slow, so I'm happy to bring the start forward if the other players are.

 

[Alexem]

I think that's probably it - I can see Laoni siding with Nat, so even if Stu holds his vote, that'll be enough. I could in theory switch to Nat to nullify the vote, but that'd make it too obvious that I'm the last scum.

In the freak event that the day somehow ends without a kill, I've decided to go with hitting Nat to see if Stu will overthink it and go for Laoni. I don't think it'll work - hell, just going for Nat will look like OMGUS - but there's no chance of a scum win with Nat around. If nothing else, putting Stu in the ultimate WIFOM situation might make for a memorable ending.

 

[Alexem]

You know what? I'm tempted to say YOLO and turn this into a stand-off. Backing away from the no kill stance probably won't do me any favours, but it should least bring the game to an end one way or the other - does anybody really want to sit around for a D6 at this point? I suppose then the deciding factors would be:

• Will Stu keep his vote on Nat? If he does, then I could in theory win with a tied vote or Laoni declining to vote, but there'll be a long wait for that.
• Would Laoni consider voting for Nat to end the game? I highly doubt it, but I'd need her to to end the game now with a majority.

I'm not going to rush in to this, just in case it looks like I'm too eager, so I'll give it a bit over an hour to see if Stu or Laoni check in.

Right now, I'd be happy with the game ending either way. A win for scum would be the best result, of course, but even if we lose, I'm still satisfied with how things have turned out. Losing malus on D1 was the worst possible start, and Lux getting red checked in the next phase should have sealed it for town. That we're still in contention on D5, even if only vaguely, is a much better outcome than I'd expected. Finishing ahead of the neutral player is better still.

 

[Alexem]

If Stu and Nat don't want to skip the kill, I suppose there's a bit of game theory going for me. If Nat goes out, scum wins. If Laoni (somehow) goes out, scum wins. If the vote ends deadlocked at two-to-two, scum wins. It's only if I go out that town wins.

Don't get me wrong - there's a decent chance that Stu and Laoni will switch to me, especially after I backed down from the no kill. If Stu stands resolute, though, we've done it.