The Quiet Council

HPSauce

Wait, I was right? Fuck
How it feels deciding to pay attention to mafia for the first time in over a year:

EFUF7EeWkAAnr9u.jpeg.jpg
 
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Fanto

Confirmed Town
Just gunna repost what I sent to Chugg on Discord lol.

Oh man, rip malus lol, I legit thought he was Scum based on his opening post feeling sketchy, then he had a post where he said like "being calm usually means town" and I was like "malus is too smart to post that if he was actually town, that's a fake read" lol, he was lookin rusty out there
 

malus

#1 official chartmaker
I already had my claim ready, but I fell asleep before I could post it. Can't really recommend playing Mafia on two hours of sleep.
Though I doubt the outcome would have been different, I really dropped the ball there.
 

Chuggernaut

HONK HONK MF
Still waiting for scum team to lock actions in but oh boy if stuff stays as is. I don't know if this the worst possible way for to play out for scum, but...it's probably the second worst possible way for this to play out as scum
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
Cool. I'm dead.

FWIW I would maybe have backed off the vote on malus if he gave me any sort of light conversation. I was hoping for a bit of banter, even the vote had a bit of jokieness to it. But when nothing came back I knew I had to stick it out.

IDK if I was a vigilante I would be so ruthless as to shoot Laoni, but if someone has that role they have to think about it.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
Welcome Faddy and Thorny!

Oh.

I feel like mafia don't kill Haw and I'm not going to say it is impossible a vig takes out Thorny but it does seem like that there is a Serial killer. (who is sophia)
 

Hawthorn

I'll explain my reasons later
Who’s to say mafia couldn’t have killed me?? But yeah— probably not. Not sure I’m buying Sophia’s cop claim. Really hope laoni stays after this game
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
A valiant effort from Lux but he isn't going to pull it off.

Let's go town!
 

Fanto

Confirmed Town
God damn, RIP to the Mafia. Good luck to the serial killer, interested to see how Town goes about sniffing them out.
 

Hawthorn

I'll explain my reasons later
Nice try lux, you did your best! Sophia also played cop well.

those last few hours when it’s clear there’ll be a turbo but everybody’s holding back are torturous
 
Welp, it was a fair attempt. Played too coy again on Day 1 and it bit me in the butt. Happens! Really curious what will happen next and how long it’ll take town to solve the game.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Looks like I got owned.

But two Mafia dead in a single game by my hand. I'll take it. That was probably the best game of Mafia I've ever played.
 
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Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Who’s to say mafia couldn’t have killed me?? But yeah— probably not. Not sure I’m buying Sophia’s cop claim. Really hope laoni stays after this game
I may like Gambit, but I don't gambit. I did, however, totally bait laoni into giving her reads first, lol.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
BTW, I've kinda gone insane in my hypomania and figured out nearly all possibilities and probably figured out who the remaining threats to town are. Town has a very good chance of winning this game if they read over everything carefully.

Killing me was a good choice, lmao.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Oh.

I feel like mafia don't kill Haw and I'm not going to say it is impossible a vig takes out Thorny but it does seem like that there is a Serial killer. (who is sophia)

If I was a serial killer, I would have probably shot Zippedpinhead or Stu.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Natiko was the wildcard in my predictions because he replaced Nin. Anyone who's figured things out now should consider that an immediate red-flag.

Zipped is town as fuck and if you've paid attention you know why. Those two accidental night posts alone should have town cleared Zipped.

That's some major anti-town behavior right there from Natiko.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Good play there. Staring down the barrel against your check was super frustrating for sure, lol.
I ALMOST didn't check you, but I was so intensely reading the thread that I realized you were a null read and I was already reading up on ideal Cop play. Then I saw that line and knew I had to investigate now.

When Chugg told me you were anti-town and that I was alive, I literally screamed in joy. That line was what told me you were probably a goon too, and the fact that you tried counter claiming me with 1-shot cop practically confirmed it. It was the safest claim for you to make while drawing attention away from your team.

Serial killers had no chance of winning this early if they were red checked, and they're not aligned with the Mafia. So I can't imagine they would have counter-claimed unless they wanted to cause as much chaos as possible, lol.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
I'm glad Hedin countered Natiko's poor logic. The setup could be MMMCVTT, MMMCTTT, or MMMCCCT at this point. There is still the very real possibility of a serial killer.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Sparks playing up the "I'm soooo unreadable!" shtick when he was easily pressured at the end of day 1 should be more than enough of a clue that he could be anti-town. Just put the pressure on him like Hedin and I did.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
Yay. Well played Sophia.

So i think the mafia and the SK both targeted Sophia. Although other outcomes are possible. It seems like both fear the cop, meaning the SK took the Vest which is probably the better choice for end game.

TTTMC??

So the unlikely scenario for me is TTTTMCV and a vig shot Haw.

So assuming no V

TTTMC MM? A mason pair would be good
TTTMC DB? Doctor and Blocker
TTTMC CC? Having another cop with 2 checks today would be amazing for town
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Zipped and Stu are almost certainly masons. Setup is MMMC at a minimum. They were EXTREMELY blatant about this in Day 1, and Zipped's accidental night posts all but confirmed it. That's the reason he was pretending not to care about the setup at first, then started caring. The combination of Innocent Child + Masons meant they knew more about the setup than anyone starting out.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/kr...-slept-the-town-changed.806226/post-117752832 -"Oh Zip it confirmed town."

https://www.resetera.com/threads/kr...-slept-the-town-changed.806226/post-117766563 - Pretending not to know each other.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
Good spot!

It is almost certainly TTTMMMC then.

Both SK and Mafia target you because neither are investigation immune. It makes the most sense.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Good spot!

It is almost certainly TTTMMMC then.

Both SK and Mafia target you because neither are investigation immune. It makes the most sense.
Yup. And I didn't confirm either way if I was 1 shot or a full blown cop. I was too much of a risk for either of them to keep alive.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
If there's one Mafia remaining, and a serial killer remaining, then the two of them DESPARATELY need to identify each other (without alerting town) and work together until the game is in Elo or MeLo. The remaining member of the Mafia can still win without the serial killer, but the Mafia wants the serial killer to help them get to Elo/MeLo faster because they've lost two teammates back to back. The serial killer is probably panicking because this is a really bad situation for them overall because SOMEBODY needs to claim that Vig shot if there's "no serial killer", and once you claim that vig shot, that's GG for you serial killer.

Or at least, that's how it should be assuming optimal play. We all know rarely do games go according to optimal play.

It doesn't help them that of the six town players remaining, one is town confirmed, and two more can confirm each other with breadcrumbs, votes, and posts to back it up.
 

Chuggernaut

HONK HONK MF
Yeah there really isn't all that much wiggle room here for the anti towns at all. I think they manage to get a miskill here, but beyond this day phase this is almost impossible.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Yup the lack of two kills is going to throw them for a loop this day phase, isn't it?

I think they should mass claim, but that would require them to know the setup is MMMC, which only Stu and Zipped hypothetically know.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Yeah there really isn't all that much wiggle room here for the anti towns at all. I think they manage to get a miskill here, but beyond this day phase this is almost impossible.
They still have a chance as long as town doesn't figure out the setup. But I've been where Hedin is now and got taken for a loop, so I I'm worried. >_<;
 

Chuggernaut

HONK HONK MF
Yeah this game just refuses to go scums way lol. losing RB Malus on day 1, having both kills flip vanilla on day 2 (with one of those being someone scum could have probably pushed for a vote.) the red check on day 2, and then the same person being targeted by both parties is just, real rough lol
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Yeah this game just refuses to go scums way lol. losing RB Malus on day 1, having both kills flip vanilla on day 2 (with one of those being someone scum could have probably pushed for a vote.) the red check on day 2, and then the same person being targeted by both parties is just, real rough lol
That red check was BRUTAL. I almost feel bad about it. Almost. It was on a 1shot too.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
My theory is that Sparks is scum and Zook is the SK. But I'm not 100% on that.

Alexem is where I'm also kinda... feeling uneasy at. There as a reason I wasn't thinking they were anti-town, but I've had a migraine all day and apparently I've forgotten to put it in my notes.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Zook being the SK makes a lot of sense given this vote tho.


It was Malus 2 Alexem 2, and I voted Malus to make it Malus 3 Alexem 2.

In what world does scum Zook come in and make it Malus 4 and Alexem 2? That would be the most AWKWARD scum chat of all time. That's not just throwing your teammate under the bus. That's chaining your teammate to the front of the bus and personally driving it off a cliff while you jump out at the last second.

But what really seals Zook being the SK is this Day 2 post, where he indicated he was going to claim because he got the slightest bit of pressure on him:


You wouldn't say that if you're a vanilla townie...
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
Dang. Sophia. If you are right you were on fire.

Maybe killing you twice was the right move, you know - just to be sure.

My meta read was that early Sparks posting is usually town. And he was getting frustrated at a lack of activity. Scum Sparks is never usually that hyped up.

how do we feel about Natiko. I don't think he can fake the goof on what happened at night like that as a scum role. Feels more like a genuine thing where he was just not caught up and fully engaged with the game.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
I first thought Sparks was town too, but the more the game has progressed I've more come to him being scum. I haven't really played with him before, so I don't have much in game meta arguments to go with. But that day 1 end unnerved me because he became uncharacteristically serious + null read on malus. He's also the kind of person who I feel would genuinely not read into the setup too much, and miss the little details like that if he were the last Mafia remaining.

Natiko, I'm still kind of uncertain on. He may genuinely have been not caught up, and given that you didn't seem to spot the Mason breadcrumb, I see where you're getting at.

I think Hedin might have just spotted the breadcrums on re-read, hence the suggestion to claim.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Bonus to this strategy: Mafia and SK have to target any combination of Hedin, Stu, and Zipped. If they screw up and target the same person, one of them targets the other in sub-optimal play, or one of them gets eliminated, they have to go into day 4 with TWO CONFIRMED TOWNIES.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality

This claim was entirely unnecessary, and nobody asked for it. Hopefully someone picks up on it.

EDIT: HEDIN AMAZING THANK YOU
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Some real Woshige WHAT ARE YOU STANDING UP FOR?! energy right now with everyone who isn't the masons claiming flavor and/or role.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
MMMCB is five letters.

That leaves TT, T (Serial Killer), and no T as possible combinations.

TT and no T means there is no serial killer tho. Which means there must be a 1 Shot Vig in the setup. No T also allows for a full Vig in the setup. But that would be an extremely town favored setup if so.

So the only possible combination with a serial killer is MMMCB?T.

Assuming Sparks is telling the truth of being a roleblocker tho....


Remaining five players who are unaccounted for:

Alex - ???
laoni - ???
Nat - ???
Sparks - Claiming Town Roleblocker
Zook - Claiming Vanilla Townie
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Looks like Zipped may have figured out some of the... clues...

I'm going to be here until at least midnight EST. I have a migraine, my eyes are sensitive, I really can't do much else but read the game and listen to music. Plus I'm in a hypomanic episode and this is feeding my hypomania in a positive way other than the fact that I may be talking way too much. Sorry, but also not sorry.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
First you claim unprompted and now you're pushing narratives, Zook?

Town can't really figure out these scenarios without testing with an elimination somehow, and why "I think the truth is hidden somewhere within"? Isn't the whole point of putting these scenarios out there is because you think one of them IS the truth?
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
laoni mentioning the weight of the roles is a very important thing too - which is more likely to have happened? TTTMMMC or TMMMCXX setup wise? You could argue that scum laoni is bringing that up to save her neck, but she's not trying to save her neck right now because she offered a mathematically solid solution to Sparks' claim by offering herself up for elimination. Her counterclaim was also very smart too. As she says, if town DOES eliminate her, and she flips as she claims, then that leads to a clear cut path where Sparks is caught in a lie and eliminated next day phase.
 

Fanto

Confirmed Town
Sparks for final Scum, going wild with a claim, and Zook for SK? I think that's where I am.
 

Fanto

Confirmed Town
First you claim unprompted and now you're pushing narratives, Zook?

Town can't really figure out these scenarios without testing with an elimination somehow, and why "I think the truth is hidden somewhere within"? Isn't the whole point of putting these scenarios out there is because you think one of them IS the truth?
The behavior of a Neutral who is desperate to cling on for just one more day lol.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Sparks for final Scum, going wild with a claim, and Zook for SK? I think that's where I am.
I'm like 99.9% sure of this too. Sparks was already my final scum guess even before Day 2 ended, but that unprompted role claim makes me sure of it.

I told Chugg in PM that I think I had this game solved at one point near the of day 2, and I suspect I was very close.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Town reading laoni hard, and if she is indeed town then she's my new favorite person on the Citadel.

Town or scum, she's played an incredible day 3.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
The people who claimed unprompted really should just be a policy elimination at this point. Only one claim was asked for, and that was the masons.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
See also: Why the popcorn method of massclaiming exists. You make the scummiest people claim first so they have the least amount of info.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Mind you, he should have raises suspicions at the end of day 1 when he completely distanced himself from malus who flipped scum. But yeah.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
Hedin is bumbling around being confirmed town.

It can be tough when no one is talking to you. Really puts you in a difficult position for reads.

Still though. Turbo this and move on.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Hedin is bumbling around being confirmed town.

It can be tough when no one is talking to you. Really puts you in a difficult position for reads.

Still though. Turbo this and move on.
Reminds me of a similar game I played at the old site. A certain Of Gods and Men... I still have trauma from that game.
 

Fanto

Confirmed Town
I can't imagine what Hedin would want to hear from Nat that would be of game solving importance tbh.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
On the flipside, this doesn't technically town confirm laoni going into Day 4 technically. However, she played so great that I have a hard time believing she's Mafia.

Either way, the remaining Mafia has to pick between Hedin, Stu, and Zipped to kill from. That's a hard choice to make. Hedin is hard town confirmed, but he hesitated on this day phase and could lead to a miselimination. Zipped is sharp and could easily see through bullshit. Stu is probably the best choice to leave alive of the three confirmed.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Alexem
laoni
Natiko
Zook

Of these four, Zook is my top scum because twice now he has unprompted claimed. Once in day 2 when he got even the slightest bit of pressure on him, and once in day 3 when he actually did claim.

If it's not Zook, it's Alexem. If it's not Alexem, it's Natiko.

If for some reason it is laoni she deserves to win this game tbh and I wouldn't even be mad after that day 3.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Knowing that the serial killer has been removed from the equation, Day 1 is a lot more readable now:

Zookfoodle:

This is easy points for malus to defend scum Zook - https://www.resetera.com/threads/kr...-slept-the-town-changed.806226/post-117760968

No mention of malus, no mention of Lux. Feels distancing of his scum mates if he's scum. Plus we know a number of the people in this read are town now, which scum Zook also knows. - https://www.resetera.com/threads/kr...-slept-the-town-changed.806226/post-117827964

This is the post that got me to think that Zook was the SK tho. I couldn't see a world where he drives the bus on malus. If he really IS scum then that's one hell of a panic vote... gives me pause and makes me wonder here. - https://www.resetera.com/threads/kr...-slept-the-town-changed.806226/post-117837549
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
I dunno, Alexem could easily be the final scum too. His Day 1 stuff has just enough distance from Malus and Lux while still throwing a little bit of shade on them. Knowing that Sparks is the SK explains his reads on him too.

Here's soft shade on Lux and malus while also drawing attention to two people he would know are not scum if he were scum. - https://www.resetera.com/threads/kr...-slept-the-town-changed.806226/post-117820104

His vote lands on Zookfoodle, soft shade on Lux - https://www.resetera.com/threads/kr...-slept-the-town-changed.806226/post-117831456

Doesn't address the malus votes here, even though malus is in the lead at this point. Damn, can't believe I didn't catch this. - https://www.resetera.com/threads/kr...-slept-the-town-changed.806226/post-117849324

Doesn't address malus AGAIN - https://www.resetera.com/threads/kr...-slept-the-town-changed.806226/post-117852159

Yeah leaning pretty confident on Alexem being the final mafia now. I think Zook may earnestly be town who just prematurely claimed when he saw Sparks claim.
 
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Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
What tripped me up most this game was the identity and presence of a serial killer. I wasn't sure if there was one in the game at first, and I was working under the assumption that Zook was the serial killer from Day 2 onward. That could have very easily snowballed into miseliminations had I been left alive.

On the other hand, getting malus in Day 1 absolutely worked in town's favor because we had three confirmed townies in the setup. So it was very easy to narrow it down simply by the logic of "Who avoided malus and who didn't?"
 

Chuggernaut

HONK HONK MF
Looks like Zipped is dead tonight our final 6 is Nat, laoni, Zook, hedin, Stu, and Alex

Honestly Alex could pull this off still. Town probably gets its first miskill with Zook tomorrow and you go into a final 4 that you kind of have to play out. It's a long shot but I don't think a laoni or a nat push is impossible. Hedin seems to want to go laoni
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
Zipped is a logical choice to night kill; he's clever enough to pick up on the fact that Zook's D1 vote should clear him as scum.

Town miskills Zook today. Night kill on Hedin. Final four of stu, Alex, Nat, and Laoni.

Laoni could be night killed too, as she is smart enough to figure out that Alex has distanced himself from Lux and Malus + was quick to vote Sparks out. But this leaves an endgame of Alex vs Natiko that I'm not sure Alex could win.
 

Android Sophia

Miss Congeniality
I do hope that someone on town picks up on the fact that Zook's D1 vote on malus SHOULD clear him. There is no way that was a bus. He sealed malus's fate.

I hate the fact that I didn't mention that in Day 2, but I suspected him of being the serial killer and didn't want to give him town cred. Ugh.
 
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