Natiko's replied to me. He's willing to go to endgame and act as kingmaker, since he knows that getting voted out by town or getting shot by scum will put the respective team in a weaker position. His preference would be to exit without dramatics, but then that's exactly what a neutral would say in this position. I think your idea about item strength relating to expenditure's a reasonable one, Sorian, but I don't think we've really got enough XP free to really put that to the test.
As it stands, we should be in a position to buy our remaining T3 shots on the next two nights, even if we lose someone. Right now we have 5 XP, so if we gain 3 XP tomorrow, we'll enter N5 with 8 XP (plus any additional points we get for voting). Spending 6 XP on Wiz's strong kill or my bomb would take us to 2 XP. We should then get another 6 XP at the start of D6 (or 4 XP if we lose someone), which would be enough for the remaining T3. That being the case, then, we could in theory afford to spend 2 XP on an item tonight to keep Natiko sweet. If my idea about Nat being an arsonist turns out to be true and I get doused in the process, then as long as Ty and Fran have been doused as well it's not really that different to me bombing out - we'd just lose a few more non-scum players in the process. Does spending 2 XP sound like a reasonable risk, then?
I've had one other thought about a potential route to setting up a vote bomb - if I'm in tomorrow night, I could use my roleblock while Wiz carries out a strong kill. If I'm spotted, I could give out a fake red check. As long as that player gets policy voted, I can then buy and arm the vote bomb in N6 with the expectation that 'boot all liars' comes into effect. That should get someone offed, and it would almost certainly put Chuggs on the block for an easy mis-hit. If I make some 'town should be careful about helping the shopkeeper' noises tomorrow, that might encourage townies to support Nat just to oppose me, which could speed along his exit. All hypotheticals, of course, but it might be a route to cutting the roster down a bit.