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Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
I think masons should claim D5. At that point they would clear +20% of players.

Masons claiming is good for Sophia in the long term as it removes any doubt to why she is surviving despite being strongly town read.
 
The thing that shoud hurt even more is that it was a bad scan anyway.

You should have been targeting pieces close to your partners in case Grizzly died. You went for the most out of the way piece.

DCPat is in a bad spot here. It isn't so much that there are strong scum reads on him, it is the fact no one has a town read on him. Maybe nin? But in the list of partners for Pat, nin would be right at the top.

Probably, I forget why we even aimed at that piece now.

It hurts. I wonder if I could have survived another day by confirming someone else as townie if I hadn't have scanned the person we killed.
 
Probably, I forget why we even aimed at that piece now.

It hurts. I wonder if I could have survived another day by confirming someone else as townie if I hadn't have scanned the person we killed.

Most likely not though because of the geno counterclaim. But it'd have been a better shot than what actually happened.
 

Sawneeks

little green dog
So I probably should have asked this before but Mason?
Masons are two players who are usually confirmed to each other and share a secret chat outside of the main one. Since they can confirm that the other is a Mason they are basically confirmed Town since Scum lying about that would be certain death after some time.
 
Masons are two players who are usually confirmed to each other and share a secret chat outside of the main one. Since they can confirm that the other is a Mason they are basically confirmed Town since Scum lying about that would be certain death after some time.

Ah...

thanks for the info ^^
 
I can't fucking believe muffin claimed...

So unnecessary

Unnecessary but it looks like it's working. Scum doesn't look like they will target him and he isn't a lynch candidate.

It was an unnecessary risk though since he wasn't even in the firing lines by either Scum or Town when he claimed though.
 
Empress' reads are so good. I'm just skimming but I don't think anyone else is suspecting both DC and Sophia right now besides her. Go get em :D
 
Empress' reads are so good. I'm just skimming but I don't think anyone else is suspecting both DC and Sophia right now besides her. Go get em :D

DCPat got some reads earlier that aren't good or bad but Sophia seemed consistently read as Town til now. Sophias sudden vote was one thing but her response to Donna on it got her I think.

Sophia will likely dial it back now I think so ultimately, I still think Donna is gonna get lynched, just based off last day phase where she had some people going for her and it seems like she is the most likely lynch candidate next.

Unless someone else picks on Sophia for those posts, Sophia will likely survive for a bit yet. DCPat, I honestly can't tell but unless things change, he's safe for another day or two. Tonight (game time) is probably Donna followed by Kalor or Zipped tomorrow.

Things could change but that's my prediction.

tl;dr: Donna's probably going to be lynched at EoD based on yesterday and the general feeling of today (game time) but depending on how things go with Kalor or Zipped (the only likely candidates besides her), she's probably getting lynched.

Ketkat unless something changes is probably going to survive until the end. She doesn't seem to be much of a threat to Scum to NK her nor does she seem like a lynchable player. Maybe that will change.
 
I'm also suspecting Scum will likely go after Brazil and Nin for NK targets as Nin has shown to be rather good when being serious imo. Brazil may be paranoid at times but has picked up on stuff which may help town/hurt scum.

He may be reading Sophia as town now but if he survives another few days, that could easily change.
 
I'm not sure but do we have any real town leader now besides Brazil? If Brazil gets offed via NK, I feel like things may slow down even more (plus Muffin leaving if everything goes to plan)
 

Xbro

Bags his own tea
You would think at this point people would realize that maybe inactivity lynches are barking up the wrong tree.
 

The Bear

Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
Town should consider that there might be 8 players left at the start of D5, which will put them lot closer to losing the game.
 

The Bear

Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
At D5 a good town would do a mass claim. Especially assuming there are masons and a doctor, that's already nearly 50% of players cleared.
 
At D5 a good town would do a mass claim. Especially assuming there are masons and a doctor, that's already nearly 50% of players cleared.

A good town would do that. But is it a good town?

I'm assuming not but I wouldn't mind seeing what would happen then lol.
 
The stupid thing is Muffin didn't realize he has a counter role which fucks him up. He would have realized that if he had taken a second to think. His bombs are just going to keep getting defused.
 

Alexem

Yeah, I'm town
The stupid thing is Muffin didn't realize he has a counter role which fucks him up. He would have realized that if he had taken a second to think. His bombs are just going to keep getting defused.
It may have been a better move to have bluffed on where he'd set the bomb. Say, for instance, he could have set it on Park Lane but claimed Mayfair - it would still have pushed him over the £800 threshold, but would have thrown off the counter. That said, I suppose if someone landed there and the attempt failed, I don't think he'd have got away with it if there was nobody on Mayfair at the start of the next day. Perhaps it's the kind of situation where claiming fully is just as risky as claiming incompletely?
 

Alexem

Yeah, I'm town
That could be a win condition for another neutral. A town or scum counter would be more likely to gain some kind of benefit (either for themself or their team) by stopping the anarchist.
 
I'm just not sure what the benefit would be for town/scum to stop a player who's win condition doesn't hurt them and who's bombs don't kill them.

Maybe you're right though.
 

CrimsonFist

Neutral Vanilla
A town counter should assume that the bombs actually are harmful to town and that Muffin is lying, because otherwise why would town have a counter for something that doesn't hurt them.

I'm assuming that the counter is neutral though.
 

Alexem

Yeah, I'm town
I'm just not sure what the benefit would be for town/scum to stop a player who's win condition doesn't hurt them and who's bombs don't kill them.
It could be a benefit in terms of a role or some kind of advantage. For example, a town player might have a role that will reward them with a night kill if they can get a specific player (i.e. a neutral) lynched, or scum might be rewarded with a strong kill. It depends on the game, really.
 

Xbro

Bags his own tea
At the rate things are going it's probably better to mislynch kalor if they aren't hitting scum anyway.
 

The Bear

Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
Town is really lazy, using my reads as a crutch even now. This will only lead to destruction.
 
Town is really lazy, using my reads as a crutch even now. This will only lead to destruction.

You were really good, I would not have suspected that you were a scum.
Anyhow, I have a feeling that the masons are brazil & ketkat... I don't think DC out of the hook yet, they may switch to him during the night and he is posting way too much which kinda seem desperate not to get lynched.

I am rooting for scums they are the underdogs right now and I want them to win, sorry comrades :c.
 

The Bear

Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
Wow, is town lazy right now or what?

If Brazil dies, the town might actually break apart without any leader figure.
 
Welp, Donna died (I went to bed very early so just catching up with everything).

Interesting way for the day to end. Nin almost became a possible death, her and Donna tied and then some final votes to stop there being a tied vote.
 
Welp I had a good run.

Hopefully I've helped lay the groundwork for town to win but with the way things are going, who knows? It was so quiet today until near the end.

I suspect they will throw shade at kyan for not voting.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
Cards
Nin - Token is revealed
Muffin - Roll until you land on an empty space
Ketkat - Bank Error in your Favour
 

CrimsonFist

Neutral Vanilla
Decent outcome if Nin got a save, one more confirmed town.

And Muffin being this transparent after a bomb already failed probably isn't the best play right now. Needs to win before town gets too suspicious.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
nin did not get a save. Mafia just missed.

It could have been worse.

And LOL at Muffin. Thinking you can just claim for an easy victory and then once the bomb goes off he announces his next target.
 

The Bear

Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
The town PR powerset coupled with the gameboard have so far felt very lopsided against scum.
 
The town PR powerset coupled with the gameboard have so far felt very lopsided against scum.

I'd agree but it might look different if we were still in the game or at least didn't get taken out in the same night hahaha...

though Sophia's power seems less like a power and more like a weakness/weak version of your power. It's the only thing that I find weird personally. Giving two people the same power but one is unlimited and one is one-shot and the rest of the time, she's weaker than the rest of us.
 

The Bear

Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
Combining night kills having ranges with town having a doctor feels bit weird, since we already had a good chance to miss (for example: tonight)
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
The town PR powerset coupled with the gameboard have so far felt very lopsided against scum.

Mafia had a good set of PRs. You blocked 2 cop checks.

Mafia had a 2/15 chance of landing an extra night kill, and a decent chance of the kill card being used on town anyway.

You messed up a bit with your information role coupled with town being good at not giving out tells.

The doctor role isn't a full doctor and it has a limited range.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
So unless something changes

Nin is so dead.

Well Mafia are certainly going to kill him, maybe.

Sophia tried to kill Brazil last night, there were 4 tokens out of her range. Those 4 are all in DCPat's range for tonight so they could leave nin alive and take out Brazil if they wanted.
 
Well Mafia are certainly going to kill him, maybe.

Sophia tried to kill Brazil last night, there were 4 tokens out of her range. Those 4 are all in DCPat's range for tonight so they could leave nin alive and take out Brazil if they wanted.

True but Nin is almost at Go and they know which token he is.

I'd be very surprised if Nin isn't targeted
 

CrimsonFist

Neutral Vanilla
The range limitation hurts scum a lot more than it hurts town. They don't seem to have anything to offset that. That would be the main point of balance I can see against scum.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
The range limitation hurts scum a lot more than it hurts town. They don't seem to have anything to offset that. That would be the main point of balance I can see against scum.

They have/had an unlimited range member who was very unlikely to be sent to jail and a cop to learn the identities of tokens. That town bopped both those roles has left them in a bad spot. They have the worst pair of players alive right now.

But in general the game mechanics hurt mafia more than town.
 

Xbro

Bags his own tea
Isn't nin 1 shot? If he feels that his role has served its purpose then I wouldn't be surprised if he has a plan going forwards with the claim.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
Isn't nin 1 shot? If he feels that his role has served its purpose then I wouldn't be surprised if he has a plan going forwards with the claim.

His token was revealed in the thread so he has every reason to believe he will die in the next night phase whether he claims or not. His plan is to stop himself being the mislynch today.
 

Alexem

Yeah, I'm town
I'm really hoping that Muffin's trying a bluff there - if he really has just laid out his move, then... I just don't know what to say.
 
"Both were easy targets that didn't offer much info by flipping and now we are rather stranded."

This is making me laugh, look at Donna and what she said. Even if you consider the reasoning weak, it's something to look at. You are not stranded. Hell, just Sophias vote followed by her response to Donna on it is enough to look at.

Also he says he's against easy lynches but: "Analyzing vote behavior, I think my biggest suspect continues to be Kalor. If we don't get traction in more high info lynches. I think I'll vote there."

I'd call him an 'easy lynch'
 

Xbro

Bags his own tea
To me, Sophia has not done anything that screams town, which is why it's is that Brazil is so certain she is. It's possible it's just a ploy on his part to get her to drop her guard.
 
Usually, you see people going at someone for having gut based reads (basically what Kyan is doing now with his feels) but here, now. nope.

Especially since this is D5 and all.
 

Alexem

Yeah, I'm town
Ugh, it's one thing to see town argue themselves into a mislynch, but today they're practically sleepwalking into one.
 
Ugh, it's one thing to see town argue themselves into a mislynch, but today they're practically sleepwalking into one.

Heh. Pretty much. It's both frustrating and boring right now to me. Quiet activity and then like 8 hours before hand, things get busy. But the stuffs being said and well... >_< yeah.

At this point, Scum may win even with their two strongest roles gone.
 

Sawneeks

little green dog
DC is sowing seeds against sophia. Not really necessary at this point.
Actually considering the weird thread of 'Brazil/Sophia are sketch' line that was floated earlier it's kinda smart. Coming down to the end group here it's good to have some shade on her even if it goes nowhere.
 

Sawneeks

little green dog
Brazil you're joking but lynching Muffin now would ACTUALLY be your best bet for multiple reasons. But it would also save you from a mislynch on town.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
That was great.

Muffin is flipping in PMs but he is almost guaranteed to win now, even if he gets lynched tomorrow.
 

Kyanrute

kyan-rute
I personally did not expect this outcome @ t-minus 60. Thought it'd be obvious that the neutral needed a counter. And nobody countered me, apart from the very neutral in question. And even if they were to go with the whole "well you are a neutral, obviously" -play, duuh, we already let one neutral live. Silly.
 

Kyanrute

kyan-rute
Infi-range bombs though? Wow. All my range analysis was pointless then lol. I guess that is fair though if bombs get defused on player landings.
 

Alexem

Yeah, I'm town
If town don't look back at Donna on D4 with DCPat's hammering vote today and put two and two together pronto, I'd say they're beyond redemption.
 

Faddy

of, having, or involving transitory whims
Infi-range bombs though? Wow. All my range analysis was pointless then lol. I guess that is fair though if bombs get defused on player landings.

The neutral had to set the bombs before seeing the board so couldn't place them on any currently occupied space and had to guess where someone might land the next day.
 
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