Spectator Thread Switzerland

SalvaPot

SalvaPot

YEAH
What if Launch goes for the risky play and kills nin during the night, knowing Kalor is deep in that pocket and convinces Kalor to lunch l_p.

I think l_P is pretty close to figuring out it's launchpad, nin probably doesn't really care and can go either way.

What was nin's win condition, anyway?
 
Natiko

Natiko

Town's Friendly Neighborhood Serial Killer
Geno said:
Wut launch killed nin
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Protects him from being offed at random from nin being reckless, but I suspect this will raise red flags from the others. Basically forces him into a WIFOM argument against LP with Kalor being the one to untie the knot.
 
Natiko

Natiko

Town's Friendly Neighborhood Serial Killer
I want to say this will still pan out exactly as I predicted but swapping Kalor in for Fran. Most players that do any amount of solving, that are firmly believed to be town, and are left alive for LYLO will swerve because they were “left alive for a reason”. I did it in Avatar, Sorian did it in Dangonronpa 3, Fran did it in a game I’m blanking on, etc.
 
lokiduck

lokiduck

Awww yiss mothafuckin' breadcrumbs
Natiko said:
I want to say this will still pan out exactly as I predicted but swapping Kalor in for Fran. Most players that do any amount of solving, that are firmly believed to be town, and are left alive for LYLO will swerve because they were “left alive for a reason”. I did it in Avatar, Sorian did it in Dangonronpa 3, Fran did it in a game I’m blanking on, etc.
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I didn't do it when I replaced in in Stardew Valley :<
 
Natiko

Natiko

Town's Friendly Neighborhood Serial Killer
lokiduck said:
I didn't do it when I replaced in in Stardew Valley :<
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It’s definitely not a universal rule, but it’s that panicky part of your brain that can’t help but get anxious. Once LYLO hits I anecdotally feel like the panic wins more often than not (often rightfully so lol)
 
Blargonaut

Blargonaut

SCUM UP!
boooo Launch

FoaUeeD.gif

BOOOOOOOOOOOO
 
SalvaPot

SalvaPot

YEAH
I'll be 100% honest here.

I think town is going to win this.

Launch made the mistake of fortifying australia, the thirst is too strong, and Fran was right, l_p has played a really pro town game from the very start and has done the homework. Kalor has been mostly a passive presence. Kalor believed me when he allied with me. Kalor then killed me when told to do so. Kalor has really not been tested it seems like very easy to manipulate, but this is the final 3 and with the nin flip there is only one answer left and a last shot. And I think Kalor will see through it.

And l_p truly believes in kalor, then the answer becomes obvious. l_P will KNOW it's launch, and will dig deep to prove it.

And Launch will probably go ham on l_P too.

Town can win this.
 
Natiko

Natiko

Town's Friendly Neighborhood Serial Killer
I think Kalor would have landed on him, so this is probably the better outcome but it’s going to be a complete toss up that this result has any logic behind it lol
 
Natiko

Natiko

Town's Friendly Neighborhood Serial Killer
Hopefully Launch takes this home despite all the odds that were stacked against us. Town has killed exactly how many of their own at this point? Lol
 
Hawthorn

Hawthorn

I'll explain my reasons later
WOW, I didn't read for a couple hours and so much action happened. I actually think mafia might pull this off!
 
SalvaPot

SalvaPot

YEAH
Interesting play by nin, is he trying to get leverage to see if he can get a win out of this? Nin has to take out scum to even try and win this.
 
Chuggernaut

Chuggernaut

HONK HONK MF
The last couple of days have been fun. Towns been doing what they need to be doing and thinking outside the box, but Launch is so well hidden it's still a struggle for them. LP is having a really good game and I like the work he's put in.
 
Blargonaut

Blargonaut

SCUM UP!
This is LYLO, right?

IMO Launch made a big mistake by rushing out from the Day-start gate with an immediate vote against nin

Lone_Prodigy Role-claimed Miller; and is still alive up until LYLO, that should be setting off serious klaxons to a true Town, moreso than a Neutral claimant in nin

Town!LP believes Launch is so Town and now Launch immediately accepts that & sides with him, against nin, at Day-start? That should be a goddamn A L E R T / V N I M A N I Y E !!! to LP right there, LP pls pls pls notice

A Town!Launch would've thrown more shade/unsurety at LP Miller at this exact point before making a vote-move like that, but nope, Launch is too friendly towards LP. super duper scum-tell
 
Blargonaut

Blargonaut

SCUM UP!
Ideally scum!Launch should've played the part of nigh-overwhelmed Townsperson and let LP or nin vote and/or MOVE TROOPS first; he should've buttered LP up with some, "oh god now what who do I believe the Miller or the Neutral??? pls convince me what do I doooo :( :( :(" pathetic Town act

Then once LP voted nin; *boom* vote, scum Win

but nope... it appears Launch's gotta have that continental breakfast
 
Geno

Geno

I probably won't be able to stay up, I need to wake up in 5 hours, if nin and LP wake up and decide to lynch Launch then rip. For fun I rolled some dice on my own and if Launch decides to go for NWT then nin dodges the attack though so doesn't matter all that much
 
lokiduck

lokiduck

Awww yiss mothafuckin' breadcrumbs
To be fair last round he did get in a few attacks on nin LOL before nin started dodging.
 
Blargonaut

Blargonaut

SCUM UP!
Geno said:
Blarg no way LP would vote for nin lol
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LP has been quite analytical thus far but I think he won't pass the PERCEPTION to finally turn against Launch; he'll vote against nin trust me I know how to play [Mafia]

If I were scum!Launch right now though, in this LYLO position? Personally I'd open scum it, announce to nin that I was Mafia whilst running full-speed at LP
 
jman1954goat

jman1954goat

Linked the Fire
Blargonaut said:
LP has been quite analytical thus far but I think he won't pass the PERCEPTION to finally turn against Launch; he'll vote against nin trust me I know how to play [Mafia]

If I were scum!Launch right now though, in this LYLO position? Personally I'd open scum it, announce to nin that I was Mafia whilst running full-speed at LP
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I really think the play is convince Nin to vote lp no risk attacks at all.
 
Blargonaut

Blargonaut

SCUM UP!
jman1954goat said:
I really think the play is convince Nin to vote lp no risk attacks at all.
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nin believes in the heart of the wildcardz, bruh; if I were scum!Launch I would absolutely NOT expend my energies trying to convince nin to be on my scum!side, if anything that would just encourage nin to backstab him more because that's more fun lol

IMO
 
jman1954goat

jman1954goat

Linked the Fire
Blargonaut said:
nin believes in the heart of the wildcardz, bruh; if I were scum!Launch I would absolutely NOT expend my energies trying to convince nin to be on my scum!side, if anything that would just encourage nin to backstab him more because that's more fun lol

IMO
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no I mean he should pretend to be town and convince Nin there is no miller
 
Blargonaut

Blargonaut

SCUM UP!
oh wait did I not say a few posts ago that if I was scum!Launch in this scenario I would've openly announced to nin that I was Mafia whilst running full-speed at Town!LP?

totally not contradicting myself
 
lokiduck

lokiduck

Awww yiss mothafuckin' breadcrumbs
Lone_Prodigy said:
Occam's tells me nin is scum and there is no neutral.

If it was 1-1-1 wouldn't the neutral win and leave, giving scum the win? I find it very unlikely that a neutral would miss their win condition yet not have a survivor as a backup. They spend the rest of the game in an impossible situation?
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>> LP please.

The Pirate Ship.
 
Reki

Reki

Blargonaut said:
IMO Launch made a big mistake by rushing out from the Day-start gate with an immediate vote against nin
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Agreed, he seems way too eager, that's never a good look in LyLo.

Blargonaut said:
LP has been quite analytical thus far but I think he won't pass the PERCEPTION to finally turn against Launch; he'll vote against nin trust me I know how to play [Mafia]
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You're probably joking but, just in case, no way.

By going to sleep nin proved he's not mafia/interested in his wincon that much. LP can pull it off.

Fake edit: noooo LP!

Geno said:
Nin's dodge % is 30%, he was getting literally 0 dodges early game and suddenly his luck completely turned around
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Wait it was ONLY 30%??!!

lokiduck said:
:<
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You did well in an awful situation to replace in! I'd have probably voted Blarg too, just way earlier to shut him up about his conspiracy theories.
 
SalvaPot

SalvaPot

YEAH
Natiko said:
There is no ‘convince nin to do’ anything. He isn’t a reasonable player lol
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You can manipulate nin, I manipulated him into attacking me with the hope of reducing his numbers and hopefully making Kalor consider going against someone else before it was too late.
 
Blargonaut

Blargonaut

SCUM UP!
jman1954goat said:
no I mean he should pretend to be town and convince Nin there is no miller
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possible, but doing that'll be picking HARD MODE for no reason; choosing to act as Town Logician, you're just begging to be ripped to pieces / have your arguments analysed

IMO if scum!Launch really wanted to pretend-as-Town to victory; it'd be far easier for him to just open the Day by doing nothing, feigning patheticness & an absolute final trust in LP's LYLO scum-hunting skill as the Last Hope of All Town. Play on emotion, not logic.

let LP make a bad decision essentially working alone with really only "Town-aligned" Launch's "Town-aligned" moral support

so nin would be on defense trying to justify his own existence.

nin would not be able to create a justifiable case against Launch, Launch got too much soft-Power; Launch can brush any of that with simple, "But you're a Neutral!!!! And he's a Miller!!!!! What do you honestly expect me to do in this situation!?!??!" shitposts

so naturally nin would turn against LP for being a Miller claimant...

nin would vote against Launch and try to convince LP to bury him, but LP would not buy that

nin would maybe even vote against LP whilst trying to reason with LP, out of frustrationtainment; LP would not like that, and if Launch didn't snipe LP during one of these moments, LP would then just be pushed more and more to vote against nin. Thus the Win for a scum!Launch-pretending-as-Town
 
weemadarthur

weemadarthur

Mad as in angry, or mad as in crazy?
Why couldn’t napoleon attack me? I thought my french friend was voltaire, he kept a picture of me in his bedroom like a creep.
 
weemadarthur

weemadarthur

Mad as in angry, or mad as in crazy?
So....is nin not a threat to town anymore, or can town not even win, and it’s a tossup between which other team wins? Lol. This is great.
 
Verelios

Verelios

Were-elios
Launch is really laying everything down on the table. Now it's all out pulling and pushing LP to vote Nin for the win, but his last post was a bit hasty.
 
Natiko

Natiko

Town's Friendly Neighborhood Serial Killer
SalvaPot said:
You can manipulate nin, I manipulated him into attacking me with the hope of reducing his numbers and hopefully making Kalor consider going against someone else before it was too late.
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That’s a very different situation than convincing him to vote with you when he almost exclusively votes off gut lol
 
Natiko

Natiko

Town's Friendly Neighborhood Serial Killer
LP’s patience should make it obvious to nin that LP is town. If LP was scum with a town Launch, he would have no incentive to wait.
 
Blargonaut

Blargonaut

SCUM UP!
ah shit. We forgot to honour the beginning of this most cherished of [Mafia] forum game events with the traditional ribbon-cutting GIF

wait
 
SalvaPot

SalvaPot

YEAH
Natiko said:
That’s a very different situation than convincing him to vote with you when he almost exclusively votes off gut lol
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Lol, true, but nin is pure emotion and party, you can get him to act a certain way if you appeal to his wackyness.
 
lokiduck

lokiduck

Awww yiss mothafuckin' breadcrumbs
jman1954goat said:
no he can't Nin can't win If he does not lynch scum. Nin 's only win condition is lynch scum and he knows it.
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Actually... He can win with scum >> Depending on the gamerunner, if he can't beat his wincon, he's allowed to default to survivor if he lives the entire game.

Same thing would have happened with Stove in Nier if scum had won and Stove was alive at the end (because then all Facade players would have died)
 
lokiduck

lokiduck

Awww yiss mothafuckin' breadcrumbs
Holy fucking shit

:surprised:

He fucking did it.

nin is offering Launch a chance to win it for scum by letting him achieve his wincon and thus a scum victory, or LP agreeing with him to vote out Launch, thus causing a town and nin victory.

:laughing:
 
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