Scum Thread Casterly Rock

[Ynnek7]

Would switching normally happen before blocking?

And it's going to be tough to get town to vote Fran out, lol.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Would switching normally happen before blocking?

And it's going to be tough to get town to vote Fran out, lol.

Priority wise, I have no idea.

I'm kind of wondering if it's worth gambiting to get him out. I could fake a 3-shot alignment cop, say I got a red result N2 and I didn't trust it so I did it again and got red on N3.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Does Fran seem nervous to you?

 

[Ynnek7]

That might be tough to sell with Geno's role existing, and if we think there could still be room for a town cop the real one might counter claim?

That might at least get him to have to admit to redirecting things somehow.

Either way, it might be risky, but fun!

And I'm not sure if Fran's nervous, or just has a puzzle in front of him and is trying to solve it. I read hawthorn as being weird yesterday, but now she's probably town, lol.

 

[Ynnek7]

Also, Stu could be playing the "I'm only two-shot- I lied, I'm actually three!" Game. He's saying he's vanilla now, but that's just to avoid a night kill.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

I was wondering if he was a little nervous because he lost Hawthorn, but I might be working backwards from a conclusion lol

 

[Ynnek7]

I was worried a mass claim might be coming. If we're going to try your gambit, this suggestion might be a decent reason for you to claim it?

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Ok, so if I do this, this is how I'm going to lay it out:

N1 - checked Zeke, town. N2 - checked Fran, not town. N3 - checked Fran, not town.

I'll say that my role works exactly the same as Geno's, it's just a town role - 3-Shot Alignment Cop. I crumbed my Zeke result lightly by giving him a town read with very little reasoning behind it. I won't focus on that, though I'm sure people will say that it wasn't a super strong breadcrumb.

I breadcrumbed the N2 result in post #1166 where I said:

I have Fran down as a town read, but he is in the "wish I had an alignment check" space because there's just a lot of paranoia involved there; take that as an estimation of how good a player I think he is.

However, because Zeke's flipped as a switcher, I was concerned the check could have been tampered with. So instead of coming forward, I left the crumb there in case I flipped before I could check Fran again. I also put focus on trying to read Fran's interactions with other players. I checked Fran again N3 and got a "not town" check result again.

The other scum team will know I'm lying, but they won't be able to prove it without outing themselves.

 

[Blargonaut]

 

[Blargonaut]

so stu confirms Zipped was a scum?

 

[Blargonaut]

yeah I'm thinking Fran is evil me

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

so we know they've at least lost one... we're either on equal footing, or they're doing worse than us depending on what else the flips are hiding. I don't see us being able to pull this off cleanly, so even if they end up killing me in retaliation tomorrow, it'll be a worthwhile trade to get Fran out of the game if I go for the gambit. Jman may have used up the heal on N1, but we can't know that for sure.

 

[Ynnek7]

We might be able to save you again tonight if we can sus out who might send the night kill. It'll be up to chance, but I have my last role block shot.

 

[Blargonaut]

So Zipped had flipped as "Town Vanilla", which stu now says is actually "Mafia 2-shot Ninja"

Then nin now flips as "Mafia 2-shot Ninja"

so 2 alleged Mafia Ninjas, of which stu says Zipped is the real one

but on our team, Launch is our 2-shot Ninja

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

This is what I would post

Ok, I’ve got some information to share. Firstly, I am a town alignment cop.

I checked Zeke on N1, got a town result.

I checked Fran on N2 and N3, got not town results both times.

Let me explain what happened and why I checked Fran twice. I checked Zeke N1 because of him being a tough read for me. Being able to clear him up early would be a big help, and I crumbed that result lightly in the reads list I posted on D2, trying to be mindful so scum didn't catch on:

Zeke feels pretty engaged. I noticed it earlier, but other than a few weird quirks in the ways he's expressed his thoughts, I feel solve-y energy in what he's posted in D2. Slight town lean.

I decided to check Fran on N2 for the same reason as Zeke. After Jman replaced out, that slot was harder to read for me, so I decided to make sure my read was correct. I got a not town result back, and when I got the PM before day started, I thought that was a smoking gun. Then I saw Zeke’s flip on D3, and I doubted my result because Zeke had been townreading Jman/Fran. I thought it was possible that Zeke had switched Fran and someone he was scum reading to protect Fran. I tried to look into that, but I couldn’t find anything conclusive. That’s also why I started poking at Fran on D3. I also crumbed this result a little stronger here:

I have Fran down as a town read, but he is in the "wish I had an alignment check" space because there's just a lot of paranoia involved there; take that as an estimation of how good a player I think he is.

It’s hard to tell the whole story through a breadcrumb, but I was hoping this would clue people in if I flipped to look there. I decided to recheck Fran N3, unsure if it was the right call since this was my last shot. But the check came back not town again, so I am certain that Fran is scum.

VOTE: Fran

 

[Blargonaut]

hmmmmmm

 

[Blargonaut]

Fran has recently expressed that he Town-read you, so him walking back on that just because you accused him would be sus against him...

 

[Blargonaut]

wait. So N2 was when I tried to kill Fran by Switching myself with Fran before killing where I was.

Then D3-start; ATP and Zeke die.

Zeke was our Godfather, ATP flipped as Vanilla Town.

Yet Zeke flipped as a Switcher (albeit a 2-shot Switcher, I'm only 1-shot + other Powers), which is the Power I used on Fran that Night...

 

[Ynnek7]

I think that makes some good sense. Fran flipping scum would also help push fate off of scum reading you, it looks like.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

We could try for Fran again tonight instead, but I feel it's a sure thing we'll trade deaths tonight assuming they do not have the heal still. If we can suss out the remaining scum, like Kenny said we could block them or at the very least, we'll at least be one death ahead of them. Even if Fran is able to create a fake claim that fits as to why he was red checked twice or someone argues that there could only be one alignment cop (Geno), I don't think town is going to let a red check go.

wait. So N2 was when I tried to kill Fran by Switching myself with Fran before killing where I was.

Then D3-start; ATP and Zeke die.

Zeke was our Godfather, ATP flipped as Vanilla Town.

Yet Zeke flipped as a Switcher (albeit a 2-shot Switcher, I'm only 1-shot + other Powers), which is the Power I used on Fran that Night...

I think Zeke's flip was a coincidence. Hedin said the role we might flip with is random.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Also, I caught that Fran and Bojack both responded to Stu with "let me think about it". Bojack is possibly another scum?

 

[Ynnek7]

I feel like we could get enough town to want to push the red check before anything else.

And that's a possibility, yeah. Might have needed time to figure out what Stu's claim actually reveals about them.

 

[Blargonaut]

What if I was the one to claim the fake red-check on Fran?

 

[Ynnek7]

Have anything you might be able to claim as crumbs?

I could see the way you increased your activity day 3 feeling as if you had a check you were happy with.

And you also could nexus tonight in case the other team went with revenge killing you, but that could still hit us, lol.

 

[Blargonaut]

Maybe not actually, you have the word count, it's safer with you

 

[Ynnek7]

I wonder if Fate has something?

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

ok, I'm going to sit on this until halfway through the day phase and think about the ins and outs. If either of you have any more doubts, let me know before then.

If someone asks why I waited until halfway through the day phase to do it, I'll point to the red check I did in Scooby Doo 2 where I did it immediately at day start and it squashed all conversation. "I learned my lesson" or something, especially since this Stu information seems important to discuss

What if I was the one to claim the fake red-check on Fran?

I think it might not go over as smoothly. I've got the (accidental) breadcrumbs to back it up, and some people suspect you. It'll come better from someone who's more widely townread.

 

[Blargonaut]

just spitballing

I dropped the Unvote play-hammer on Geno and hammered rac.. but anything in my past this game really usable as support of it? Nothing comes to mind for myself really...

 

[Ynnek7]

Yeah, waiting until mid day makes the most sense for a check. Gives the scum team time to post more and get more interactions out there.

 

[Blargonaut]

okay I think I'll stick to my Graverobbing thing for myself

I think it's a good plan with the Fran scam but I'm thinking

 

[Ynnek7]

If we have to do a mass claim (probably tomorrow, I'm feeling), should I just claim vanilla at this point?

 

[Blargonaut]

Meanwhile, now N3; we tried to kill Fran again. This time, ynnek both Roleblocks & Kills Fran. I protect Launch.

Then at D4-start, Hawthorn and nin die.

Hawthorn as a Town 3-shot Jailor... and nin as a Mafia 2-shot Ninja (which stu claims is Zipped's real Role, but for us at least is Launch's real Role).

Both times we tried to kill Fran, Launch didn't go anywhere near Fran...

Yet both times we tried to kill Fran (N2 & N3), one of the flips each Day-start showed off a scum-team Power...

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Rereading Jman, he went too hard bussing Zipped. He tipped his hand there. lol

If we have to do a mass claim (probably tomorrow, I'm feeling), should I just claim vanilla at this point?

I think it's as good a claim as any.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Also is voting for Fran. Fate can be talked into it. Maybe we don’t need to go with the fake claim

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Leo is*

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

I am basically going to act as I would if I were going to come out with the red check until I do or don't

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

 

[Blargonaut]

 

[Blargonaut]

I know I should be in there apologies I'm a bit swamped by a thing which is almost done and I'm sure I can charm my way out of being a non-contributor soonish

 

[Blargonaut]

I'd say this in-thread but I don't make excuses

 

[Blargonaut]

One thing while I'm here; I'm afraid the existence of a Town 3-shot Jailor (Hawthorn) will damage the credibility of me Role-claiming as a Power-Thief-turned-x-shot-Doctor-off-rac but I think it'll still be okay? I can dismiss quips about it being a lie because game imbalance by saying look how many kills there've been every Night plus my Power wasn't guaranteed to steal a Doctor or else otherwise blame the game host for being an uncreative hack who didn't comprehend the fine gameplay relationships between Roles and now look at the mess we're in you know the usual justifications

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

No worries, Blarg. you should both take your time coming around on Fran, but ultimately land there.

As for your claim, you could also just do vanilla, but you might could back up your grave robber claim if we block the kill tonight as though you’d protected someone. I agree with the balance argument

 

[Ynnek7]

Bah, accidentally copied your question to EC there, lol.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Leo is scary

 

[Ynnek7]

Okay, if Leo can make this argument work that saves you from having to make the cop claim. And if Fran by chance pops up as town when killed, Leo will become an option for voting out tomorrow.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

yeah, I'm not going with the fake claim. This has turned out great.

It'll be interesting to see what'll happen if Fran flips town. So far, not a single scum player has actually flipped scum lol

 

[Ynnek7]

So, if we're right that the two teams are mirrors, then:
Nin: ninja
Fran: JOAT

That leaves a godfather and a roleblocker, one of which we're pretty certain (?, Was that when we thought Stu only knew because he was likely scum?) was a previous night kill. I'm hoping it was the roleblocker.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

With how much Bojack is beating around the bush with this Fran thing (not unlike you Kenny, though for different reasons lol), I feel pretty good he's scum, too.

So, if we're right that the two teams are mirrors, then:
Nin: ninja
Fran: JOAT

That leaves a godfather and a roleblocker, one of which we're pretty certain (?, Was that when we thought Stu only knew because he was likely scum?) was a previous night kill. I'm hoping it was the roleblocker.

Stu confirmed Zipped was the ninja. I think nin was town.

Stu definitely oversold how well town was doing, but if he said it while thinking there was only one scum team, one dead scum (Zipped) might seem better in that context. I think ATP and Hawthorn could have been scum, but there's no way to confirm now and I don't think Stu has that information. Maybe he's lying and has an additional shot.

 

[Ynnek7]

Ah, thanks, I was getting that mixed up.

So there's something overwriting town flips as well as our own chance at flipping town.

 

[Ynnek7]

If Bojack is scum, then should we roleblock and kill him tonight? Might save us from their night kill, and taking out the other scum team feels more important than killing town right now, lol.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Ah, thanks, I was getting that mixed up.

So there's something overwriting town flips as well as our own chance at flipping town.

I wonder if the rule is the same for us as it is for town, but they're just not informed about it like we were.

If Bojack is scum, then should we roleblock and kill him tonight? Might save us from their night kill, and taking out the other scum team feels more important than killing town right now, lol.

This is what I've been thinking. The other scum team feels like more of a threat right now.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Going to ramble for a bit:

Looking at the remaining not-us players, let's assume we vote out Fran today, this is the list of remaining players by how likely I think they're on the other scum team:

BoJack (meandering on the Fran discussion)
EvilChameleon (basically just by POE because the below have done townie things)
FateShirou (asking town vig to claim and bussing Fran, doesn't seem like a likely candidate)
Leo (sneaky player, but unlikely to bus Fran in this situation)
Stu (likely telling the truth about his role)

If there are two scum remaining, we basically pick the one we suspect the most to block/night kill and hope we guessed right where the kill is coming from. If we successfully block their kill, we'll be in a good spot going into tomorrow. It'll be difficult to get town to vote Stu or Leo out tomorrow (pending Fran's flip), but EC and Fate are easier targets. If the two remaining scum are BoJack and EC, this is very doable. BoJack for the night kill, get town to vote out EC finally and we win. It will be tough since we won't be able to confirm if we're right and the flips might lie to us, but I think the pool of players is small enough we can piece this together. Hopefully, tomorrow the 3 of us will still be alive; majority will be 4. We can definitely control the game to a large degree at that point.

Also, thinking about it, the scum team might think the nin flip is unaltered and that we really did lose a player last night. I was wondering if they had seen anything definitive that pointed to us existing - but nin's death might be it.

I want to entertain for a second that Hawthorn could have been scum, too, which could be ideal - except we have no way of knowing for sure. Hawthorn flipped as jailor - though we haven't seen any evidence of this power being used. Hawthorn was alive for three nights. She suspected Blarg and Kenny (post #891), but Blarg was able to use his powers unimpeded for two nights and Kenny used his last night. Like we talked about, she also had a really weird EoD yesterday. However, since she flipped with nin today, I can't believe the other scum team would choose to kill nin on purpose. nin was probably the consequence of the nexus last night (which is why the roleblock didn't work?), and the N2 action they chose was a switch with Zeke or ATP. So, it would be more prudent to proceed thinking there are two other scum players left.

 

[Ynnek7]

I'm kind of really hoping that Fran flips as town because then it'll be real easy to try to push a Leo vote (but odds are good on that going to either you or Fate, too, which we'll have to avoid).

I pretty much agree spot on with your list there. BoJack really is the most likely scum remaining on the other team. Not sure how strongly I feel about EC being scum, but it feels more likely than the others. Fran's at three votes right now, so that feels pretty close for EC to just leave a vote on Fran, unless they've all decided Fran is a lost cause with pressure coming from three other players.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

I was laying out some scenarios. There's still room for a loss here, but we're in a really good spot. I feel confident about BoJack and nailing one scum tonight is the key to success here. If we get that right, we can eliminate the other scum team and endgame town as early as tomorrow if we're all still alive. Even if we get the vote wrong tomorrow, we can kill a third candidate the following night and endgame town at the start of the following day.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

I'm pretty sure I know where I'll be voting by the end of the day, though.

The suspense is killing me

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

BoJack showing his true colors

 

[Ynnek7]

Sorry, Launch, he's got me convinced. You're scum.

Vote: Launchpad

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

I’m at -1 boys

 

[Ynnek7]

Oh god

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

@Blargonaut hammer. don’t give Leo or Fate a chance to change their minds

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

er wait without EC, it’s no longer hammer. shit

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

BoJack and EC

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

we should’ve hammered sooner

 

[Ynnek7]

Pull up! Pull up! We can save this!

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

wtf is EC doing? is this a bus?

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

BLARG NO lol

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

It's ok, I'm just anxious as all hell, don't listen to me

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

 

[Ynnek7]

And now we find out Fran is beloved.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Well done guys btw

 

[Blargonaut]

 

[Blargonaut]

LOL

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

lol

 

[Blargonaut]

WHAT IS GOING ON

 

[Blargonaut]

okay so all i got left is my Nexus (x1)

 

[Ynnek7]

Amazing, lol

 

[Blargonaut]

What happened to our attacks against Fran then? First me then ynnek it can't be possible that somebody just happened to directly target both of us in that exact consecutive order to cause our attacks to end up elsewhere

 

[Ynnek7]

I'm hoping that this is just Fran showing up as town and actually being scum.

I feel like he would have claimed earlier before he had to leave if he actually was a cop.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

What happened to our attacks against Fran then? First me then ynnek it can't be possible that somebody just happened to directly target both of us in that exact consecutive order to cause our attacks to end up elsewhere

The flip is absolutely fake, there's no way Fran doesn't claim that immediately when he's being pressed. Fran must've switched himself on N2, and nexus'd on N3.

 

[Blargonaut]

So do we put the Horseman out to pastureman Tonight or what

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Since Kenny and I voted for Fran, I think we might be off the table for a night kill tonight, but it'll still be worthwhile to try to guess where the kill is coming from and have Blarg nexus just in case. He's the only one of us that voted for Fran, and that's probably the "towniest" looking player they see. Hopefully we can block the kill, but we have that insurance (that hopefully won't backfire on us).

I can see Scum Not Us doing one of two things - either they feel like BoJack showed too much of his ass to us defending Fran and will have the remaining teammate perform the night kill to avoid a roleblock, or they haven't realized we knew Fran was scum already and doesn't think BoJack's been tied to that other team so he will do the kill. They also may not even suspect we still have a roleblock use and that we blew all our shots earlier, so maybe I'm overthinking it.

I think the sure thing is Block/Kill: BoJack. The only other option to entertain is Kill: BoJack, Block: EC, but it feels riskier.

 

[Blargonaut]

submitting command gl hf

900 APM EXPANSION
(Nexus)​

 

[Ynnek7]

Sounds good to me. I think BoJack is our best bet at hitting other scum.

Block: Bojack
Kill: BoJack

If any of us die tonight, it's been an honor. (Same goes for you, Zeke, just didn't realize we were in danger until after you died!)

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Thank you all for being an amazing team. I hope we did you proud, Zeke.

 

[Hedin]

submitting command gl hf

900 APM EXPANSION
(Nexus)​

Block: Bojack
Kill: BoJack

Commands Received

 

[Blargonaut]

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Just something that's making me feel a bit less nervous about tonight: I'm good with the actions as they are because we can't risk them killing any of us at this point, but the ideal scenario here would be they think Fate and Leo are my teammates and the kill goes through on one of them. This can still happen if they don't let BoJack do the kill, so it would be a pleasant surprise. If they've realized they need to kill us to win, they might rather go for one of those two instead of me to leave the option open for pushing me based on Fran's flip. Especially since Blarg voted me, they 100% believe Blarg is town right now, so they think they convinced at least one townie to vote me out and that it's still very much on the table.

At that point, with BoJack dead, that puts us at 6 players remaining - 3 Us vs 3 Not Us, so we control the vote. Even if we "no vote" tomorrow + day after, and miss Scum Not Us twice in a row with the night kill twice:

D5 Start: 3 Scum Us, 1 Scum Not Us, 2 Town
N5 Start: 3 Scum Us, 1 Scum Not Us, 2 Town
D6 Start: 2 Scum Us, 1 Scum Not Us, 1 Town
N6 Start: 2 Scum Us, 1 Scum Not Us, 1 Town
D7 Start: 1 Scum Us, 1 Scum Not Us, 0 Town

The worst case scenario if this happens is the two scum teams kill each other and we tie, assuming we can't hammer someone and can't figure out the last scum correctly. lol

(P.S. I appreciate you all putting up with my ramblings this whole game)

 

[Blargonaut]

np thanks for carrying me here

 

[Blargonaut]

Scum Not Us

Usn't Scum

 

[Blargonaut]

I was also going to make an alphabetical "Scun" joke but I search if that means anything already or not and it turns out to scun means to cause to skip or skim, like a stone or a quick vessel across/over water; or, to reproach publicly... original content doesn't exist

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

If I'm alive and we have to claim, I'll take Bilbo Baggins

 

[Ynnek7]

Absolutely no worries about the ramblings, lol. They've helped me keep track of everything, so they've been really helpful.

I can take Quintin Coldwater, vanilla town.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Blarg called dibs on Quentin, though he might’ve changed his mind by now

 

[Ynnek7]

Whoops, missed that. I'll take Dalinar.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

fuck

 

[Ynnek7]

(screams internally)

 

[Blargonaut]

if you read the character wiki before I do you can have it

 

[Blargonaut]

oh stu's dead

 

[Ynnek7]

New theory, none of our night kills actually went to our targets.

 

[Blargonaut]

Hedin does our kill even work