Neighbor Thread The Junior Woodchuck Super Secret Base

[EzekelRAGE]

he being Malus if he still had the rb shot left

 

[EzekelRAGE]

Bojack Day 3

P: Maybe Sneeks now; most potential for finding more info.
I: You I think. Find out what's going on with Obama.
K: WSD. I still think there's something fishy with that claim, and I'll expand in a future post.

I want to do a full updated read list with justification, so I'll have that later today.

Scum leaning/reading
EC - Still think it's typical EC, but that's NAI at this point. Potential scum candidate, but maybe a less likely one
malus - Need to reread as nothing they've said is standing out to me at this moment. Have they commented on today's developments? I remember their chart, but would like to see how that ties into their thoughts of what's going on. Feels like they've been skating by on light analysis potentially.
nin - Could be playing a "staying on my own" kind of game and using the Obama thing as a shield. nin's just come off a scum win right? Might have been riding on that wave and went for something real bizarre.
WSD - Where I'm most leaning. Will explain below.

Bojack Day 4

I do have some news to share, but I want everyone to check in first before I say what it is. With talk of a mass claim, I'd maybe want to hear that first too.

I tracked malus and saw he visited Sneeks. Sorry if you're a super important town role, malus.

I wanted info on someone we had nothing on. No claim or anything. malus has sort of been floating by without much prodding so I took a gamble on it.

Least Mal was on his list as scum...........question is whether he would track Mal over his scum lean in WSD.
========================
Interesting conundrum tbh. Do we take everything at face value? Neeks and Bojack are town. Mal had his shot left and actually did try block Neeks?
Mal couldve claimed doctor - No kill night, he couldnt risk getting cc'd by a real doc if they did go for Random.
Why didnt Mal RB Kyan? No matter what you cant risk the greencheck popping off.
Could a scumNeeks have Mal steal from her just in case he was being tracked and ended up getting flipped?

Idk...........the way Neeks just dropped the issue with Mal RB'n her feels weird.

 

[Ephidel]

I need to go relook at things now I know malus was dodgy

Possible, then why didnt he block Kyan N2 if he still had the shot?

I don't know, but we know they didn't because he got it off.
I can't recall what Kyan's reads were like at the time or if he even posted any around then but it does feel like it would be one hell of a gamble to think they could just dodge it.
Maybe the missing one? two? do have a redirect like I theorised and used that?

And with EC the timeline doesn't work for block -> steal from gladstone by mistake but it works 'cause he's rich -> buy new block -> use new block, so the only way they can have (tried to) block sneeks on N3 is if they had the original and none of his other skills make sense to use on her (do they?)
Which means they can't have used his block on EC either?

So we know Neeks wasnt the target for N3. So either scum tried to kill Random or they went with a no kill.

He was reasonably town read. Or maybe they're like Bo and thought he was the Inventor.

Interesting conundrum tbh. Do we take everything at face value?

No no no no no, I was trying to *avoid* pondering tinfoil let me take things at face value at least for a little while :(

 

[EzekelRAGE]

No no no no no, I was trying to *avoid* pondering tinfoil let me take things at face value at least for a little while :(

Unfortunately for you..............I live in the world of tinfoil

 

[EzekelRAGE]

Vote: HPSauce

for reasons stated above. would also consider malus.

Fate how could LP be scum if he's been cop checked as town. And he's in a vanilla chat.

Posts like this.............I couldve swore Neeks was pushing LP this day phase or last phase. The theory being LP was a godfather/mole.

 

[EzekelRAGE]

4 hours before eod HP/Mal are tied at 3

I'm looking over my notes on malus and came back to the D2 vote.

malus put his vote on Zipped with about 1h30m to go. It puts the Zipped wagon at 5 vs Kyan at 6. I'm trying to think if this is a scum bus or just regular town. He did lay his suspicions down on Kyan earlier on, but changed his tune after their claim, so the progression feels natural. I argued the point for Sneeks so I have to argue it here - why go for a scum mate when you can go for the easy wagon? If they're scum and wanted to avoid stacking, there's not many options for who the other scum could be:

On Kyan
Zeke
ATP
Fate
Z-Beat
Random
BoJack

On LP
Zipped

So okay, maybe they didn't want to stack with Zipped. But on Kyan, it seems okay. Z-Beat is confirmed town, I know I am, Random/Launch is claiming neutral and I buy it, Fate seems clear from D1, Zeke is the neighboriser and ATP/Ephi is a vanilla woodchuck. So who would he be avoiding there? I don't know if a Zipped bus is worth it there. Especially after losing Zook D1. They did have Zipped as like they're 3rd most likely scum, but why not stay quiet and stick on your EC vote until it's safer?

That's my only sticking point with malus right now. I can't figure his actions out as scum.

I can see the above as subtly pushing HP and trying to save Mal

Then these posts read wishy washy to me:

I want to move my vote off LP, just not sure where yet. Also don't necessarily want to put HP -1 from hammer.

The more I think about N3, the more I buy into the theory I posted. But I know I need to flip HP for my own satisfaction and clear up that slot.

Okay, well now malus is the one -1 from hammer.

I think both trains are pretty townie outside of HP on malus and vice versa. Could have SvS.

****Tinfoil over***

Gonna play back the first few hours of the next day phase(try to anyway) to see what others come up with

 

[EzekelRAGE]

hmmmm, I may be dead. Me, VA, and Ty will never get lynched and of those 3 I'm the loudest.

Let'em know I said look at bojack and Sneeks.
Bojack - He could also be a thief who tried to steal from VA. The track on Malus could be a scummate. "Could be Scum v Scum" looked scummy, like he plans to push HP for the next day phase. Protecting VA over Kyan.
Neeks - could be fun. On top of all the stuff I posted in both these threads, but also the way she defended me/lp when earlier she was saying we could be scum. I still think her watching VA over Kyan was odd. Just like Mal using the Jail ability on Neeks over VA was odd. Stuff between her and Malus couldve been staged.

Let them know that Fate......on top of the scum voting for chuggs but the "all stealing actions" clears the spot as well imo.

Dont copy and paste...........paraphrase.

 

[Ephidel]

The theory being LP was a godfather/mole.

I mean, I have to say it: the latter *is* still possible.

hmmmm, I may be dead.

Hopefully not, and not just because I would rather leave selling your tinfoils to you when I haven't really gotten my head around them myself xD

But your wishes are noted.

 

[EzekelRAGE]

I mean, I have to say it: the latter *is* still possible.

Yea it is............which is why it's weird that Sneeks dropped it like it isnt a possibility anymore.

 

[Ephidel]

Okay, on consideration I can get my head around a scum Bo/Malus and the claimed night interactions that night in a mechanical sense at least.

N4 Bo tracked Malus to Sneeks (actual track if they were being safe, or faked it entirely if they were riskier) to sell Malus' decided fake role.

Either they hydroed to sell the save and weren't expecting other night actions to allow for an alternative explanation in rando.

Or.

They thought they could get away with jailer as a role claim without needing that.
They just flat tried to kill rando - they misread Sneeks hints at the item giver and Bo was telling the truth the many times he said he thought it was Rando, and they tried to kill him while malus was provably "saving" a town!sneeks who might even have been able to corroborate the interaction from her end if she were blocked.
Malus gets to go "I was protecting my townread! I means whoops about the watch but I was trying to save her. And I obviously wasn't killing her because rando died" and Bo is similarly accounted for as not being anywhere near Rando at the time.

The flips didn't go as expected, but they had a little time to comment perhaps -- Malus was present at day start because he posted "huh" in 2935, Bo didn't tease he had something to say until 1hr40 after day start (he teased he had something in 2989 and claimed the track itself in 3002)
Malus didn't check back in to claim jailer until the next morning, 9 and a bit hours after day start in 3181+3184 (flavour in 3196)

Launch didn't claim until 3270 (18 hours after day start? eh, anyway, it was after them), so if he was their kill they didn't know what happened with Random for sure until *after* their claims.

I struggled a bit yesterday with why a scum!malus wouldn't have been more ready to push the idea sneeks was the killer and he stopped her, but if they were still expecting a kill maybe I can understand it a little (and also explains that "well I thought maybe she was the sk" answer he gave me that with hindsight I should have frowned at a little more).

(But what Bo would actually have been doing at VA's party on N2 is still unknown.
He can't have been Yet Another Thief because that was the night of Fate's theft lightning rod, he'd have gone to visit him instead.
Confirmed Town is unlikely to have an active skill that would require any blocking. So why was he there?)

 

[Ephidel]

I am assuming Launch really is neutral and not scum faking neutral, despite the claim name being what looks like a villain.

I do fully expect him to betray town if left alive until the point where scum can offer him the chance of EC's death of course.
Or to be the instrument of night based swing like I posited in thread at some point.

Alternatively, maybe he was far too helpful last game day and scum, being down malus now which extends things a little anyway, and considering Launch was arguing for Malus's demise, say fuck it tonight and decided to shoot EC (who claimed to commute yesterday and thus probably can't today) tonight to get rid of him.

I do briefly want to note that LP was the one who asked Launch how much money he actually had (#3365).
That's information a scum team that can use money to buy skill shots might potentially want.

 

[Ephidel]

I'm going to go stare at people's read lists or something now.

 

[EzekelRAGE]

Posting this right when actions locked just in case.

Ignoring the Bojack/Neeks stuff, LP wanting to direct ppl to look at the Kyan wagon when malus isnt on it looks bad. This was at the start of the phase, before anyone really looked at malus.

I'll go back and double check, but that Kyan vote seems suspicious. He had a claimed track and at the very least could've been left alive another day to use it. I town read Zeke and Ephi so I think there might be scum there.

Even if the wagons were all town, don't you keep the one with the most claimed utility?

i will go back and double check to see if you made a case for someone else
dont finger wag us, at the end of the day i felt unease over kyran but i was also scrumreading him

My vote was on HP.
Outside of Zeke and Ephi on Kyan, we have WSD, Fate, HP, VA, and Sneeks. Take out VA. You don't think there's scum in those 4?
The vote was pretty close between HP, Kyan, and WSD. A couple vote swings could've put any of them in the lead. Kyan didn't even vote for self preservation.
I dunno, I just find it bizarre how it ended up.

WSD/Fate/HP/Sneeks being those 4 laying seeds for a HP/Neeks vote?


This was posted Sunday. At this point Malus is on several ppl's lists.

Ah I see we've reached that point in the game where I'm in the PoE for living too long. Sorry I don't have better flavour or verifiable night actions. Thought this time might be different with a green check and a vanilla chat but it is what it is. Town can afford to flip me today so might as well do it before you don't have that room for error.

I'm going to keep reading in the meantime. My PoE at this point is just HP so I have to reevaluate the claims and night actions. I think there's something amiss between Bojack, malus, and Sneeks. Maybe Sneeks is a scum JOAT with a one shot loud watch that she uses on IC VA to verify her, then constructs her fake claim after seeing ZBeat's flip. Or malus is scum RB who didn't shoot to fake a jailer claim.

Or maybe Launch is a hidden partner.

Malus' top 3 not including LP, could be he just doesnt want to look into the greencheck i guess.

Malus read from LP from Day 4:

HP wasn't in my PoE because he voted fairly early on Zook but he did vote for Kyan D2 and his recent quietness is giving me Star Trek vibes.

Fate was the opposing wagon to Zook and with both Zipped and Zook there, it looks like scum tried to save Zook D1. I don't know if scum!Fate can fake frustration but it looks genuine to me.

EC's role seems too hard to fake.

With malus, I suppose you can make an argument about too much protection or why he waited until N3 to use his ability, but jailer does have a negative utility in the RB and all the other protection didn't stop us having two double kill nights. Outside of that, he does look like he's trying to solve. And graphs!

Seems malus rarely mentioned LP.

Counterpoint, would a scum Zipped leave their vote on a scummate like he did Day 2?

 

[Ephidel]

Are you two alive?

 

[EzekelRAGE]

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

Malus votes: D1 Ty, D2 Zipped, D3 ATP, D4 WSD, D5 WSD->HP

Mostly avoided leading wagons but he wasn't usually around for EoD. Only time he changed his vote was last day for self preservation.

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

Fate likely isn't mafia because of D1 and his stealing lightning rod but could he be neutral?

Malus flipping scum does clear Bojack and Sneeks mechanically but they were all on HP.

What do you think about HP? I think his output has been lacking and could be a sign of disheartened scum but he was the opposing wagon to flipped scum. I'm reminded of Star Trek again where I had to vote between Royal and HP and picked Royal who flipped scum, thus clearing HP who ended up also being scum.

Gotta say, never thought a scum flip would make things even more confusing.

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

I wasn't going to oppose you on Kyan even though I thought he was town, but I don't think that others voted him just to appease you. With malus not on his wagon it's possible a teammate was on Kyan.

And for everything directed at Sneeks yesterday, she didn't get a single vote.

 

[EzekelRAGE]

HP - idk, i think is low hanging fruit. Fully expect him to be pushed again today.

How does Malus clear bojack/Sneeks?

 

[Ephidel]

Bwa ha.
So either Launch is lying, or they need Gladstone?

I choose to believe the latter. Congrats on pissing off the scum team Launch.

 

[Ephidel]

I am actually torn.
I was 100% town reading HP, but that day start is fucking *rough*.

 

[EzekelRAGE]

Yea, would suck if he was scum :/

 

[Ephidel]

I am incredibly paranoid about how Sneeks has been "yo, woodchucks are dodgy" but now I've included lp in a poe list and you've admitted to writing about him she has dropped her previous case on anex to go "woodchucks are probably fine talk to me about wee"

 

[EzekelRAGE]

I am incredibly paranoid about how Sneeks has been "yo, woodchucks are dodgy" but now I've included lp in a poe list and you've admitted to writing about him she has dropped her previous case on anex to go "woodchucks are probably fine talk to me about wee"

Right lol

 

[Ephidel]

I know we need HP gone either way, I'm just trying to plot out the math from here.

If this is a misvote, we get one more, and the one after that kills us if we fuck it up?

 

[Ephidel]

(assuming worst case scenario of 2 scum remaining)

 

[Ephidel]

I'm sorry HP :(

 

[EzekelRAGE]

not surprised :(

 

[EzekelRAGE]

I know we need HP gone either way, I'm just trying to plot out the math from here.

If this is a misvote, we get one more, and the one after that kills us if we fuck it up?

I think it may be like that? Im thinking scum kill fate tonight and launch leaves the game.
So Day 7 we have 8 alive. If we have two scum.
8v2 Day 7
6v2 Day 8
4v2 Day 9 - We have to no vote here ?
3v2 Day 10 - Love if we dont hit scum

 

[EzekelRAGE]

lose*

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

There's 10 left so if Fate dies and Launch exits it's 6v2 next day. That gives us two misvotes and a no vote.

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

Not many places left to look.

VA, Ty, and Fate are pretty lock town.
Launch is the neutral.
That leaves Wee/WSD, Bojack, Sneeks, and the 3 of us.

Malus isn't afraid to bus and he was on WSD on Day 4 and 5 (before switching to HP). But I never got the impression that WSD was scum: causing a tie D1 was NAI and he didn't seem teamed by how he just claimed at the start of D2 and disappeared.

Bojack and Sneeks would be quite the ploy given how they both interacted with malus N3. But they also never seemed to scum read each other. Sneeks thought she was blocked by scum RB before malus claimed and when he did, she didn't push on that. And malus never pushed Sneeks after there was no kill. All 3 voted for HP. A risk to stack, sure, but not impossible.

 

[EzekelRAGE]

 

[Ephidel]

Zeke, I'm assuming that because you commented on the LP invite working before he posted you get informed whether your recruit is successful?

I don't know if you did last night, but I think you should try to invite someone tonight just for the sheer hell of it.

I'm thinking about Nier where maol didn't use the fake claim that fitted his race? If we'd invited him it would have broken his claim (he would also have taken over our cult in flavour, apparently, but that's not the point). If scum had a pool of fake claims it's possible someone else chose a mismatch -- Zipped never claimed, after all, they should have had spare -- and if someone is Bully Beagle or something to allow Ma Beagle to have her Beagle Boys on team they could be invite-able as a result.

It's unlikely to work, but it's not like there's anything lose by trying. Okay, the sanctity of woodchuck chat, but other than that.

 

[Ephidel]

Trying to work out the best way to try and work through this is tough, which feels especially silly when the POE is actually fairly small at this point.

The only people I'm prepared to consider at this moment are Bo, Sneeks, Wee, and LP.
(If Launch doesn't die, *maybe* Launch, but that's not a problem for today)

I know all the things I *should* be looking at and combining into opinions at this point; posts from flipped scum, vote shit, reading through people most of whom talk entirely too much and therefore should have said something important at some point.
Actually doing it feels harder

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

Saying I am a godfather who left Kyan alone so he'd check me is a stretch. Would I risk him checking me instead of a teammate? I looked at Kyan's reads on D2. He had a lot of suspects and nulls. Does scum think they're town read enough to dodge the check? Or they just redirect him.

Also, why, when Kyan is a claimed cop and his opposing wagon was scum, no one claimed to visit him N2. Jman going to VA to give him an item makes sense because scum is going to hit the claimed cop over a confirmed townie so it would be a waste. But Bojack and Sneeks went there too.

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

*puts tinfoil hat on*

Could Zeke be scum recruiting vanillas into his chat? Like a Bradford Buzzard?

Balance wise it seems like too much along with the scum role cop, but if scum are hunting for Scrooge to steal his money and dime, getting that info might not be overpowered.

 

[EzekelRAGE]

Zeke, I'm assuming that because you commented on the LP invite working before he posted you get informed whether your recruit is successful?

ATP/WSD I didnt get any confirmation whether it worked or not, but for LP I did.
Leo did ATP/WSD. Loki did LP. I'll give it a shot though.

 

[EzekelRAGE]

Ill be told if it's successful

 

[EzekelRAGE]

Neeks seems so opportunistic............idk

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

Bojack :(

So I think the play is vote Launch if he's here tomorrow and no vote if he's not? It's 4-2-1 with him, and a misvote would get to 2-2-1 with him as kingmaker. If he's not here then it's 4-2 and we no vote to get to 3-2?

Unless it's just wee and Sneeks?

 

[EzekelRAGE]

yea that's how I see it

 

[EzekelRAGE]

im tempted to just say fuck it and self vote tbh. Let scum have the win. This is ridiculous.

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

Sorry Zeke