Yacht
Costume
Scum Thread OH NO! IT IS THE DEN OF THE LOVELESS!
- Thread starter The Bear
- Start date
Gondola
Costume
So it looks like
Sub - would go kayak or skiff today
Lifeboat - Beluga rn but that was preclaim
Kayak- Sub, maybe would still try lifeboat
Inflatable - not sure yet, skiff? Seems very Against yacht
Duck- kayak but is musing on yacht
Skiff - seems like it has no idea where to go, fate looks like he'd bite on sub
Beluga -has probed skiff a bit but doesnt seem sure on kayak either
Sub - would go kayak or skiff today
Lifeboat - Beluga rn but that was preclaim
Kayak- Sub, maybe would still try lifeboat
Inflatable - not sure yet, skiff? Seems very Against yacht
Duck- kayak but is musing on yacht
Skiff - seems like it has no idea where to go, fate looks like he'd bite on sub
Beluga -has probed skiff a bit but doesnt seem sure on kayak either
Gondola
Costume
Yeah I pretty sure thats ty lol
Gondola
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I would probably reply to you saying that in thread saying that personally of the two I prefer Skiff, with reasoning given that I feel they've locked into defending that Yacht vote of theirs and also that I dislike that making their vote out post instead of contributing feels pretty defeatist after we just caught scum.
... Perhaps also that new skiff never came back after dropping questions last night.
... Perhaps also that new skiff never came back after dropping questions last night.
Yacht
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Trying to assess, can't say for sure. Feel like Life would sheep Duck and Kayak will go there if sub doesn't take off. so Gondola, Kayak, Duck, Life. Could beluga or skiff hammer that? Yeah. I guess I'd feel more comfortable if there are 2 counter wagons, like Kayak and Skiff both.
Gondola
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Yacht
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In the optimistic scenario where we make final 5 we do need to fend off the teamed accusation so don't be afraid to go for it if it feels natural
Yacht
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Is this okay? Opens up a vote on you from us but I don't think enough would follow
"Why is Gondola town? Their day 1 vote on HB is late enough to be a bus after mounting pressure which now seems town initiated (Galleon, Duck, whatever you think about us + IB). Their opening vote on LB today which uses HBs action to damn them looks forced. I thought they had a good early game but seems like they have not really kept up that impact?"
"Why is Gondola town? Their day 1 vote on HB is late enough to be a bus after mounting pressure which now seems town initiated (Galleon, Duck, whatever you think about us + IB). Their opening vote on LB today which uses HBs action to damn them looks forced. I thought they had a good early game but seems like they have not really kept up that impact?"
Gondola
Costume
I'm totally cool with anything, I already know the response to the first part is i was asleep during houseboat's weirdness. You're probably right about making sure we don't look teamed.
Gondola
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Inflatable thinks it can only realistically be kayak, skiff then sub in that order right now (unless they're playing their cards close to their chest). Worth keeping in mind, both for where they're at and because that is exactly the kind of towny openness town likes to turn on for "creating a narrative" lol. If they want to just vote those three each day til the end that would be fine lol
Gondola
Costume
They did also say this a few posts earlier which I am not even going to dare attempt to quote 'properly' this close to EOD lol
"My town reads have shifted a bit and I have a suspicion about someone I've been town reading that I might push tomorrow depending on how our flip goes....But for now that's all I'll say. Are you shaking in your slippers, scum?!"
Yacht
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Gondola
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Yeah keeping kayak would be good, tbh dont really want anyone to flip over to sub. Skiff would be good
Gondola
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Lmao i would just let them beef the out ephi, that flip is going to be on someone elses head
Gondola
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:thumbsup:
Gondola
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lmao the superstar claim?
Gondola
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no that was good, that's who we wanted
Gondola
Costume
Inflatable Boat -
Kayak - Vanilla
Submarine - Superstar
Lifeboat - Ghost
Jet Ski - Vanilla
Galleon - Vanilla
Cruise Ship - Doctor
Skiff - Vanilla
Giant Rubber Duck - Claimed Cop
Beluga Whale - Messenger
Alright so outside of inflatable, we have everyone's role. Cop could still be a gambit, if I think we're forced to kill Duck tonight either way and just pray inflatable isn't a tracker/watcher or that they were two shot and used their shots already. If we can get away with killing Duck and role copping Inflatable we will know everyone's roles and we can come up with something for ourselves
Kayak - Vanilla
Submarine - Superstar
Lifeboat - Ghost
Jet Ski - Vanilla
Galleon - Vanilla
Cruise Ship - Doctor
Skiff - Vanilla
Giant Rubber Duck - Claimed Cop
Beluga Whale - Messenger
Alright so outside of inflatable, we have everyone's role. Cop could still be a gambit, if I think we're forced to kill Duck tonight either way and just pray inflatable isn't a tracker/watcher or that they were two shot and used their shots already. If we can get away with killing Duck and role copping Inflatable we will know everyone's roles and we can come up with something for ourselves
Gondola
Costume
They could still out the rest of us if they get another check off, regardless of whether their first was on the godfather. That's why they die.
LB isn't entirely in the clear.
We also know we aren't responisble for any form of block, so there's a reason they only have one result after two nights.
Odd/Even limited.
One shot and waited.
Multi shot but checked HB N1 and Cruise counterclaimed before they could get their red check in.
Parity cop who checked one person each night (presumably the first would be someone who died for them to be "sure" LB was green)
Or it's bullshit. ... but if you bullshit I'm not sure you bullshit a clear on LB.
LB isn't entirely in the clear.
We also know we aren't responisble for any form of block, so there's a reason they only have one result after two nights.
Odd/Even limited.
One shot and waited.
Multi shot but checked HB N1 and Cruise counterclaimed before they could get their red check in.
Parity cop who checked one person each night (presumably the first would be someone who died for them to be "sure" LB was green)
Or it's bullshit. ... but if you bullshit I'm not sure you bullshit a clear on LB.
Gondola
Costume
Im just wondering what the balance to a cop is supposed to be here. We dont have a blocker , a godfather on our end, a switcher or anything on their end unless thats inflatable's role. The messenger suggests they could have a tracker or watcher or something to interfere with that . Would the balance be its one shot? Even that is a free alignment confirm for town with no chance of going wrong. That's what gets me wondering if its a gambit so that tonight we kill them, get watched hopefully and it greenchecks lifeboat because why else do scum kill them
Gondola
Costume
I don't think you'd count on a watcher, because I think if there was a watcher you'd have expected them to watch the doctor die :thinking:
Gondola
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Do you think duck is spent on whatever they had? I kind of feel like tomorrow will just be kayak and sub arguing if we leave them both
Gondola
Costume
We didn't get any partial disclosure notification memes, so I wonder if they're basically a glorified vanilla.
My first instinct as that as it doesn't reveal their alignment it doesn't bump them up the priority list when they're facing opposition in thread..
... and yeah, the hope is presumably that between them Sub and Kayak fighting for the other might create some noise tomorrow (even if we'll need to stop fence sitting between them then, lol)
My first instinct as that as it doesn't reveal their alignment it doesn't bump them up the priority list when they're facing opposition in thread..
... and yeah, the hope is presumably that between them Sub and Kayak fighting for the other might create some noise tomorrow (even if we'll need to stop fence sitting between them then, lol)
Gondola
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I think its like a role variation on that, its a role confirmation. It didn't have any qualifiers with it so it basically acted as a vanilla confirmation sans alignment. The thread didnt seem too moved by it
Gondola
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Lol sorry i totally missed this post earlier i didnt mean to ignore it. Lots of good points. We probsvly probably need to Kill them
Gondola
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How dangerous you think leaving duck in play is?
Gondola
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It's fine, it's easy to miss posts from yourself and the first half of mine at the time I wrote it misunderstood what you were saying about clearing them as "cop death clearing them", not "not-a-cop death death clearing them because we were spooked enough to stomp them anyway".
It's not impossible for a fake cop to have faked a cop check on the godfather and spooked the scum team in the process but yeah, I wouldn't relish trying to sell that chain of events :P
Gondola
Costume
So our most obvious "mechanical risks" are possible cop vs unknown entity at this point?
Leaving possible cop alive could shade them and their check but they might be a cop and they could catch us and that would suck.
"kayak > yacht > more unknowns like skiff/inflatable/etc" is the last POE I recall seeing, but there was also the chainsawing comment and that was pretty recent.
Unknown entity has threatened to turn on a read tomorrow and is an unknown so we don't know if they have a convincing argument (they can probably pull out a bunch of iso evidence based on their posts on LB) or any mechanical backup.
We can kill possible cop and find out what unknown entity is, or we can kill unknown entity and find out if cop is really cop.
Is there a mechanical bait gambit that could benefit from a cop claim?
Self watcher with a bullet proof vest? :cor:
Leaving possible cop alive could shade them and their check but they might be a cop and they could catch us and that would suck.
"kayak > yacht > more unknowns like skiff/inflatable/etc" is the last POE I recall seeing, but there was also the chainsawing comment and that was pretty recent.
Unknown entity has threatened to turn on a read tomorrow and is an unknown so we don't know if they have a convincing argument (they can probably pull out a bunch of iso evidence based on their posts on LB) or any mechanical backup.
We can kill possible cop and find out what unknown entity is, or we can kill unknown entity and find out if cop is really cop.
Is there a mechanical bait gambit that could benefit from a cop claim?
Self watcher with a bullet proof vest? :cor:
Yacht
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I think he doesn't have shots if they are cop, they're probably bluffing.
The Bear
Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
Gondola
Costume
If we think they're spent or bluffing, i could get behind an inflatable kill and we check Duck tonight. I'd like to do these two in one of the two combos just so we have all of the role info. Inflatable is the last person who could be a tracker/watcher too.
Yacht
Costume
Heads up I'll be afk for most of this night phase and the majority of the next day/night as I'm going on a small trip for 3 days leaving in the morning.
Jotting down some scattered thoughts:
5/13 PR claims or 38%
Love boat 1 was 7/15 or 46% vanilla + 4/15 or 26% town PR
Love boat 2 was 6/15 40% vanilla / 6/15 40% town PR
Love boat 3 was 6/17 35% vanilla / 7/17 41% town PR
If IB has a role this game will be 30%/46%, if IB is vanilla this game will be 38%/38%.
I would currently assume IB is vanilla even if this is fuzzy math.
-W
Jotting down some scattered thoughts:
4/13 VT claims or 30%
5/13 PR claims or 38%
Love boat 1 was 7/15 or 46% vanilla + 4/15 or 26% town PR
Love boat 2 was 6/15 40% vanilla / 6/15 40% town PR
Love boat 3 was 6/17 35% vanilla / 7/17 41% town PR
If IB has a role this game will be 30%/46%, if IB is vanilla this game will be 38%/38%.
I would currently assume IB is vanilla even if this is fuzzy math.
-W
Yacht
Costume
For kills. Need to think a bit about who is being setup and what they would do. Scum kayak wouldn't kill sub and vice versa with Scum sub. A scum godfather LB would be happy to kill Duck before any more checks went off to confirm themselves. A duck/LB team might kill IB but is a tough sell.
Yacht
Costume
I do think Duck is dangerous alive, they have good reads and could make good cases particularly on us. I think they could come in stronger on a non-weekend phase. LB will trust Duck fully so that's 2 of the 4 votes needed for majority solidly out of our hands tomorrow. IB can talk themselves in circles more and haven't been challenged themselves.
I don't think Duck made a gambit since the chance of there being a real cop or them reading LB wrong seem too high risk. If they did, brilliant play which paid off but could lose a game just as easily.
I do think there is a small chance Duck could have a BP. Some guessing role like the role cop but the rewards for correct guesses are a Cop shot / BP / something else? (similar to the Bookie rewards in previous games) - but not sure they had enough time to get 2 correct guesses at something and check somebody.
Don't think duck has any more cop shots. Think they would claim out of shots if they hoped to squeeze one more out.
I don't think Duck made a gambit since the chance of there being a real cop or them reading LB wrong seem too high risk. If they did, brilliant play which paid off but could lose a game just as easily.
I do think there is a small chance Duck could have a BP. Some guessing role like the role cop but the rewards for correct guesses are a Cop shot / BP / something else? (similar to the Bookie rewards in previous games) - but not sure they had enough time to get 2 correct guesses at something and check somebody.
Don't think duck has any more cop shots. Think they would claim out of shots if they hoped to squeeze one more out.
Yacht
Costume
I think the biggest risk coming out of EoD is if people can see through the noise and identify Sub Vs Kayak as town Vs town. Kayak posted some pretty real reads when they could have been the flip. Sub had that heated moment which is hard to see as teamed. If they seem town/town, we basically are the PoE at that point.
For role cop:
If we find IB is vanilla, what do we claim?
If we find IB is non-vanilla but a tracker or something what do we claim?
If we kill IB and they are vanilla, what do we claim?
If we fear IB can see movement, is it safer to not role cop and just kill?
I think if we have 7 vanilla claims and we're 2 of the 3 or 4 vanillas left alive town might focus on us there.
If one of us goes vanilla and the other PR the vanilla will be 1/3 or 1/4 instead but the PR will face more scrutiny.
Who will Beluga message? IB? Does killing IB the same night Beluga visits shade them sufficiently?
Possible PR claims:
Motion detector? Is there enough roles that move that this seems fair? Guess it would reinforce notion messenger is town.
Loved/Hated - would town risk testing this?
Not sure what else. Prob not vig without a shot / believable chance doc blocked it. Prob not bookie with lack of focused pushes.
For role cop:
If we find IB is vanilla, what do we claim?
If we find IB is non-vanilla but a tracker or something what do we claim?
If we kill IB and they are vanilla, what do we claim?
If we fear IB can see movement, is it safer to not role cop and just kill?
I think if we have 7 vanilla claims and we're 2 of the 3 or 4 vanillas left alive town might focus on us there.
If one of us goes vanilla and the other PR the vanilla will be 1/3 or 1/4 instead but the PR will face more scrutiny.
Who will Beluga message? IB? Does killing IB the same night Beluga visits shade them sufficiently?
Possible PR claims:
Motion detector? Is there enough roles that move that this seems fair? Guess it would reinforce notion messenger is town.
Loved/Hated - would town risk testing this?
Not sure what else. Prob not vig without a shot / believable chance doc blocked it. Prob not bookie with lack of focused pushes.
Yacht
Costume
Anyway I think for names these should work
IB - Sawneeks (think VA is co-pilot between "shaking in slippers" and move your "buns")
Duck - Ty (little worried Sorian could be hanging on as aggressor #2)
Beluga - Vere
Sub - loki (Fanto on shotgun?)
My vote is prob kill duck and then not sure if it matters about rolecopping IB unless they would track or block us - still lean vanilla on them. But if they are vanilla then no downside to using both actions unless duck disrupts one of us. But discuss yourselves and decide, food with any.
IB - Sawneeks (think VA is co-pilot between "shaking in slippers" and move your "buns")
Duck - Ty (little worried Sorian could be hanging on as aggressor #2)
Beluga - Vere
Sub - loki (Fanto on shotgun?)
My vote is prob kill duck and then not sure if it matters about rolecopping IB unless they would track or block us - still lean vanilla on them. But if they are vanilla then no downside to using both actions unless duck disrupts one of us. But discuss yourselves and decide, food with any.
Gondola
Costume
Hmm with the Odds of them being vanilla it doesnt feel too dangerous. If they aren't vanilla, i dont think they can be a watcher or they would have been watching cruise last night period, if they're a tracker well, its just a gamble whether they track either of us over the others anyway. Just a guess but i think I'd be tracking kayak to try and justify yesterday and get my reads back on track
The Bear
Obligatory Gay Bear of the Society
Gondola
Costume
I glanced in quickly before lock just to make sure there was red text but I didn't finish work until now lol.
That's a good result though. At least there's not something mechanical waiting to get sprung on us there, although I am somewhat wary that a push on us is overdue :x
So now it's just pending Duck flipping (please just die, and flip, and be a cop so things are just normal lol)
And trying to keep on top of things.
And post more. And be towny. Those last ones are just for me :cor:
That's a good result though. At least there's not something mechanical waiting to get sprung on us there, although I am somewhat wary that a push on us is overdue :x
So now it's just pending Duck flipping (please just die, and flip, and be a cop so things are just normal lol)
And trying to keep on top of things.
And post more. And be towny. Those last ones are just for me :cor:
Gondola
Costume
Haha it'll be fine! Don't worry about a push on us. Because of the way the counterclaim happened on day 2 and the votes after that basically meaning nothing, no-one has been proven to be on scum yet bar the people who voted houseboat preclaim. Both the counterwagon for D1 and D3 haven't been cleared up, so no-one can really get uppity about votes. It's coming down to play and consistency, and we have played well and we have been consistent. If anyone asked why we didn't vote yacht yesterday it's the same reason I thought he was being performative; there's absolutely no point in parking your vote on a slot no one has shown any appetite in voting that close to day end, it's just sitting off wagon. Our vote on Skiff was wrong but it was a vote most people were saying they were open to after kayak and it was within our reads which we provided loudly with a lot of time for anyone to approach
Gondola
Costume
I'm not sure about claiming anything around lifeboat yet, I like the idea at first, but I think we might get some deserved grief for not counterclaiming them after they claimed a non movement role before the cop stepped in and provided the movement.
I'd need to check exactly how long passed between those things and if either of us were around in thread in the interim.
Gondola
Costume
Ghost claim in 1019
www.outermafia.com
Oh, cop claim was super close to that, 1023
www.outermafia.com
About an hour in terms of time but literally only a handful of posts, none of which were us.
That is something we could get away with :thinking:
Game Thread - Love Boat: The Spin-off |OT| We Bare Boats
Heads up, I'll be out most of today and might check in on mobile once or twice later
www.outermafia.com
Oh, cop claim was super close to that, 1023
Game Thread - Love Boat: The Spin-off |OT| We Bare Boats
Heads up, I'll be out most of today and might check in on mobile once or twice later
www.outermafia.com
About an hour in terms of time but literally only a handful of posts, none of which were us.
That is something we could get away with :thinking:
Gondola
Costume
can i claim? the longer we wait the less great it looks lol
Gondola
Costume
I feel like tying ourselves to Yacht today by claiming we saw them not move when they may then flip would put us under a lot of suspicion afterwards but I dunno what else to do.
What are the alternatives?
Hard bus and say we saw Yacht move, but then we're literally in this alone and that's horrible.
Say we watched submarine instead because of the Kayak/Sub kick off, but saw no movement? Makes it harder to vote someone out today :cor:
This may be the time to go bold.
I'll go with watching Yacht if you want to.
What are the alternatives?
Hard bus and say we saw Yacht move, but then we're literally in this alone and that's horrible.
Say we watched submarine instead because of the Kayak/Sub kick off, but saw no movement? Makes it harder to vote someone out today :cor:
This may be the time to go bold.
I'll go with watching Yacht if you want to.