RPG Mafia - Secret Chrono Fantasy Trail CIXVI

[Zippedpinhead]

What “either” of my other skills are

 

[Chuggernaut]

Question for the class because I am not game design brained. Could you get away with a janitor in a non-bastard because for the life of me I can't think of any other reason why the fuck that TWE role exists

 

[Franconp]

I haven’t said what ever of my other skills are other than “not anything related to alignment checking”

Yes, you are right but you are also confirmed town so it's not important.

 

[Hedin]

==== DAY 5 VOTES ====
Day Start

Ty4on (3 votes)
Franconp - #3,137
Muffin - #3,145
melonrabbit - #3,193

Alexem (2 votes)
Sorian - #3,108
Chuggernaut - #3,148

Sorian (2 votes)
nin1000 - #3,102
Ty4on - #3,169

melonrabbit (1 votes)
Sorian - #3,054 #3,108
Chuggernaut - #3,082 #3,148
Alexem - #3,095

Not voting: turmoil7, Zippedpinhead, Natiko, Aeleus

Post Counts:
melonrabbit: 44 Chuggernaut: 30 Ty4on: 27 Sorian: 25 Aeleus: 24 Franconp: 20 Zippedpinhead: 13 Muffin: 12 turmoil7: 10 Alexem: 4 Natiko: 4 nin1000: 2

Current Countdown:

Click here to go to the Vote Tool!

 

[Chuggernaut]

this is entirely too quiet

 

[Ty4on]

Anyway @Ty4on can you get out of the Sorian tunnel please. I don't think this is it and we have a better targets today.

But that requires me to think

 

[Alexem]

Since I'm not getting far thinking in terms of roles, I've been trying to think in terms of voting patterns. I still think Chuggs's votes for Neon were used as the launching point for the D1 mishit, but looking at the first four votes for the elimintated players on the days that followed:

• D2 (Cap out)
  • Sorian
  • Wizard
  • Ty (withdrawn and later re-voted)
  • Fran
• D3 (Malus out)
  • Zipped
  • Sorian
  • Fran
  • Turmoil
• D4 (Geno out)
  • Wizard
  • Sorian
  • Turmoil
  • Nin

I don't think Zipped or Fran are under suspicion following the red check and vig shot. (Malus wasn't exactly under much pressure at the end of D2 and it wouldn't make sense for scum to fake-kill a teammate on N4 so soon after losing Malus, so neither of those look much like bus attempts.) I think Turmoil's claim is relatively accepted as well, so I'll set him aside for the sake of argument.

From what's left, Sorian's standing out to me as the common factor. He's first in on Cap, hotly followed by Wiz, then he's second in on Geno, this time following Wiz. On D3, he's the first to vote for Malus after Zipped gives the red check, so that's a potential bus. D1 is an outlier, with Sorian going for Chuggs and Muffin before settling on Turmoil, but as Wiz and Malus stacked their votes that day, I can see that as keeping his distance.

I know I'm cautious about policy votes for Sorian, but looking again at the voting trends, I think there might be smoke there.

VOTE: Sorian

 

[Ty4on]

Sorian voting so much with Wiz is almost kinda towny

 

[turmoil7]

IIRC Ty did claim his role had RNG after Chuggs claim didn't he?

Why would he claim something to support Chuggs in a moment he was getting some fire for the Neon push? That doesn't make sense to me for a scum Ty to do

 

[Franconp]

IIRC Ty did claim his role had RNG after Chuggs claim didn't he?

Why would he claim something to support Chuggs in a moment he was getting some fire for the Neon push? That doesn't make sense to me for a scum Ty to do

No, before. Ty claimed D1 and Chuggs D2.

 

[Alexem]

Question for the class because I am not game design brained. Could you get away with a janitor in a non-bastard because for the life of me I can't think of any other reason why the fuck that TWE role exists

Since no-one else has answered, I think you probably could work a janitor into a non-bastard game as long as there's a way to get the flip posted legitimately during the game. For example, if the janitor gets offed, their target's flip could be posted following their own flip. Edited or death miller flips would be in bastard territory, so I don't think there's any danger of finding those in this game.

 

[turmoil7]

Oh right. My role is kinda meh, especially with everything going on. I only have commuter abilities. More exp variants makes it more likely I successfully commute.

No, before. Ty claimed D1 and Chuggs D2.

Oh yeah, you are right. I blocked from my mind he had claimed he was % role on D1

 

[turmoil7]

I keep going back to the fact of Ty being the first RNG role to claim...

Of the 2 scums flips we currently have, none has RNG elements. I think it's unlikely scum has RNG elements in their roles, then how could scum Ty know that RNG is a factor in the game?

I think Ty isn't the correct vote here

 

[Alexem]

I keep going back to the fact of Ty being the first RNG role to claim...

Of the 2 scums flips we currently have, none has RNG elements. I think it's unlikely scum has RNG elements in their roles, then how could scum Ty know that RNG is a factor in the game?

I think Ty isn't the correct vote here

I wouldn't rule out the possibility of there being at least one scum action with a random element, even if they're all JOATs and there's a particular action or two that gets randomised, but I feel like it's to Ty's credit that he volunteered the existence of randomised roles first when he could have kept that quiet.

 

[Franconp]

I don't think it's Sorian. Wiz vote D4 doesn't feel like a bus.

Don't think it's Alexem but less sure about that. I won't vote there but I'm not against it.

 

[Franconp]

Natiko is our Neutral and he should be benign. We had no extra kills and town had a bunch of protective roles. So it makes sense that we have 5 scums.

We found 2 so we are missing 3. Who is everyones remainig 3 scum players?

To me it's Ty, Chuggs and one of the gossips. Could be Alexem.

 

[Alexem]

We found 2 so we are missing 3. Who is everyones remainig 3 scum players?

I'll go with my main hunches for the day, Sorian and Melon, then perhaps Muffin. Turmoil's votes on D3 and 4 don't look ideal for now, but I'm inclined to accept his claim at the moment.

 

[Aeleus]

To me this makes me think that Muffin is not part of a team:



What's your take on that?

Going to be honest this is at least the third time I've read your catch there and every time I think its a good point that makes muffin look a lot better and then my brain ejects it from my memory as it doesn't fit my theory.

I did want Chuggs to answer that question in particular though because it appears he's town reading everyone but alexem, melon and natiko (I don't think he's mentioned me at all today so I might be on that list too) and that just feels odd to me, so I'd appreciate some deeper insights from him.

Vote: Alexem
Going to keep Alexem in the race, very against the Sorian vote atm (especially with both ty4on and alexem on it) but not against ty4on.

 

[Franconp]

I'll go with my main hunches for the day, Sorian and Melon, then perhaps Muffin. Turmoil's votes on D3 and 4 don't look ideal for now, but I'm inclined to accept his claim at the moment.

Do you think Wiz vote on Sorian yesterday was a bus?

Do you think that Wiz uses his partner Melon in his fake claim and then he fuck up the claim?

 

[Alexem]

Do you think Wiz vote on Sorian yesterday was a bus?

Do you think that Wiz uses his partner Melon in his fake claim and then he fuck up the claim?

The switch to Sorian could have been a convenient exit from a train on a known townie while creating some distance from Sorian while he was at it. Wouldn't rule out a slip on the claim, either, if he had to think on his feet.

 

[turmoil7]

I think my scum team is Alex, Sorian and the third one I don't know... everyone seems so townie to me, maybe Ael or melon?

 

[turmoil7]

Also @Zippedpinhead your vote isn't being counted on the vote tool, you misspelled it

 

[Hedin]

==== DAY 5 VOTES ====
Day Start

Ty4on (3 votes)
Franconp - #3,137
Muffin - #3,145
melonrabbit - #3,193

Alexem (3 votes)
Sorian - #3,108
Chuggernaut - #3,148
Aeleus - #3,218

Sorian (3 votes)
nin1000 - #3,102
Ty4on - #3,169
Alexem - #3,207

melonrabbit (0 votes)
Sorian - #3,054 #3,108
Chuggernaut - #3,082 #3,148
Alexem - #3,095 #3,207

Not voting: turmoil7, Zippedpinhead, Natiko

Post Counts:
melonrabbit: 44 Chuggernaut: 31 Ty4on: 29 Sorian: 25 Aeleus: 25 Franconp: 24 turmoil7: 15 Zippedpinhead: 13 Muffin: 12 Alexem: 9 Natiko: 4 nin1000: 2

Current Countdown:

Click here to go to the Vote Tool!

 

[Aeleus]

Would people appreciate if I paraphrased the chat I had with Sorian, I'm somewhat hesitant to do it because its a lot longer and complex than the one I had with geno and I'm pretty sure no one did anything more than scim through that but at the very least it should prove me and Sorian aren't partnered (because there is no way on earth I would ever spend so much time on fake interactions).

 

[Sorian]

Since I'm not getting far thinking in terms of roles, I've been trying to think in terms of voting patterns. I still think Chuggs's votes for Neon were used as the launching point for the D1 mishit, but looking at the first four votes for the elimintated players on the days that followed:

• D2 (Cap out)
  • Sorian
  • Wizard
  • Ty (withdrawn and later re-voted)
  • Fran
• D3 (Malus out)
  • Zipped
  • Sorian
  • Fran
  • Turmoil
• D4 (Geno out)
  • Wizard
  • Sorian
  • Turmoil
  • Nin

I don't think Zipped or Fran are under suspicion following the red check and vig shot. (Malus wasn't exactly under much pressure at the end of D2 and it wouldn't make sense for scum to fake-kill a teammate on N4 so soon after losing Malus, so neither of those look much like bus attempts.) I think Turmoil's claim is relatively accepted as well, so I'll set him aside for the sake of argument.

From what's left, Sorian's standing out to me as the common factor. He's first in on Cap, hotly followed by Wiz, then he's second in on Geno, this time following Wiz. On D3, he's the first to vote for Malus after Zipped gives the red check, so that's a potential bus. D1 is an outlier, with Sorian going for Chuggs and Muffin before settling on Turmoil, but as Wiz and Malus stacked their votes that day, I can see that as keeping his distance.

I know I'm cautious about policy votes for Sorian, but looking again at the voting trends, I think there might be smoke there.

VOTE: Sorian

This is the second time today you chased the leading vote. You started today by sheeping me onto melon when they were the only vote option and you came back to that collapsed and went for me next. This is not a real read, this is you scrambling.

 

[Alexem]

This is the second time today you chased the leading vote. You started today by sheeping me onto melon when they were the only vote option and you came back to that collapsed and went for me next. This is not a real read, this is you scrambling.

You say sheeping, I say following up on my vote from yesterday - that didn't catch on, either, so I ended up getting swayed to the more popular Geno train. Or was I sheeping Worthy then as well?

 

[melonrabbit]

Natiko is our Neutral and he should be benign. We had no extra kills and town had a bunch of protective roles. So it makes sense that we have 5 scums.

We found 2 so we are missing 3. Who is everyones remainig 3 scum players?

To me it's Ty, Chuggs and one of the gossips. Could be Alexem.

That's pretty much where I'm at. Ty/Alex, Chuggs and Ael/Muffin.

I think Ty behavior today has me leaning more towards him. Alex is a bit all over the place and I don't like his vote for me and don't understand his reasoning for Sorian much.

Since we've seen two JOAT scum. I think there's a RNG type and Gossip type still left for balancing purposes.

I think a Ty, Chuggs or Ael flip solves the most today. I still go back to D1 and Sneeks back and forth with Chuggs felt really really off. I know Ael has taken a far different approach and has been helpful but it feels almost too helpful. Idk.

 

[Aeleus]

For those suspecting Sorian, what does he get out of inviting me to a gossip chat rather than TWE or Fran?

I had just voted him and have been open about being paranoid about his slot, so I could have just ignored him. He did state he expected me to have a strong 6xp power so he could have been trying to find that out but the same could be said about TWE and he never tried to get me to claim anything.

The other aim would be to pocket me and honestly what would be the point? I'm pretty sure I've never convinced another player in my entire career no matter how right I am (just go look at my last stand in HvV3 for confirmation on that).

 

[melonrabbit]

this is entirely too quiet

Scum is cooked or comfy.

 

[Aeleus]

That's pretty much where I'm at. Ty/Alex, Chuggs and Ael/Muffin.

I think Ty behavior today has me leaning more towards him. Alex is a bit all over the place and I don't like his vote for me and don't understand his reasoning for Sorian much.

Why do you think Ty and Alexem can't both be scum?

 

[melonrabbit]

Why do you think Ty and Alexem can't both be scum?

I do. I've stated as much prior. Sorry if I was unclear in my last post. Should've probably used a comma instead of a slash there.

This is what I get for trying to play while on the train (literally commuting this morning lol)

 

[Aeleus]

I have little logic behind this but yesterday I felt like scum was comfy while today I feel scum is cooked. My reevaluation of players being instantly validated in Wizard's death is making me feel more confident than I have ever been in mafia (I say, 7 hours before walking into a rake).

 

[melonrabbit]

I think you (Ael) and Muffin are mutual exclusive as scum.

 

[Alexem]

For those suspecting Sorian, what does he get out of inviting me to a gossip chat rather than TWE or Fran?

I had just voted him and have been open about being paranoid about his slot, so I could have just ignored him. He did state he expected me to have a strong 6xp power so he could have been trying to find that out but the same could be said about TWE and he never tried to get me to claim anything.

The other aim would be to pocket me and honestly what would be the point? I'm pretty sure I've never convinced another player in my entire career no matter how right I am (just go look at my last stand in HvV3 for confirmation on that).

A pocketing attempt would be my best guess - you're pretty well read, after all, so even if you don't think you've had much luck at convincing others, this could be a game where you do. It'd be worth a shot to find out.

 

[Natiko]

I’m in and out today when I’m not in meetings for work. Not sure that there’s much for me contribute, but I am around if anyone has questions or anything.

 

[Franconp]

Alexem what else did you do besides the lie detector?

 

[Chuggernaut]

Going to be honest this is at least the third time I've read your catch there and every time I think its a good point that makes muffin look a lot better and then my brain ejects it from my memory as it doesn't fit my theory.

I did want Chuggs to answer that question in particular though because it appears he's town reading everyone but alexem, melon and natiko (I don't think he's mentioned me at all today so I might be on that list too) and that just feels odd to me, so I'd appreciate some deeper insights from him.

Vote: Alexem
Going to keep Alexem in the race, very against the Sorian vote atm (especially with both ty4on and alexem on it) but not against ty4on.

what question are you asking about?

 

[Franconp]

what question are you asking about?

Who is the rest of the scum team to you? Name 3.

 

[Sorian]

I think Wizard dying over night was a huge blow. Ael and I were going to go after him fairly hard today and I have to imagine others were too (clearly Fran would have if he didn’t have the power to shoot him) but I don’t think scum realized he was in as precarious of a situation as he was. I feel like today is very much a day where they are scrambling and I think these long stretches of quiet are because Alex and Ty are both scum and they are hoping town gets distracted from the inaction. I keep going back to this random Alex vote and all I see is scum trying to squeeze out a hail mary mislynch here and hoping tomorrow is somehow better for them.

 

[Sorian]

I’m in and out today when I’m not in meetings for work. Not sure that there’s much for me contribute, but I am around if anyone has questions or anything.

If I survive, I would really appreciate you picking me tonight. I do actually have a theory about how your items work and now that I think Alex is for sure scum, I’m wondering if they had the same thought I did. I know your thing is a day command so that is asking you to pay attention to if I’m going to get lynched or not close to day end but if you are available, I’d like that.

 

[Chuggernaut]

Who is the rest of the scum team to you? Name 3.

I cannot make a three person scum team out of the players left. I think every player has something clearing one way or the other to the point I think we’re dealing with a deep wolf. Alex feels like a clear choice to me. Melon and Muffin feel like the next place I would look but I don’t think they’re paired and I think they both have things pointing away from them being scum. Maybe Turms but that doesn’t feel correct. If you want to vote me out based on that, go for it, but I legit don’t know what the solve is here.

 

[Chuggernaut]

I think Wizard dying over night was a huge blow. Ael and I were going to go after him fairly hard today and I have to imagine others were too (clearly Fran would have if he didn’t have the power to shoot him) but I don’t think scum realized he was in as precarious of a situation as he was. I feel like today is very much a day where they are scrambling and I think these long stretches of quiet are because Alex and Ty are both scum and they are hoping town gets distracted from the inaction. I keep going back to this random Alex vote and all I see is scum trying to squeeze out a hail mary mislynch here and hoping tomorrow is somehow better for them.

how confident are you on Ty

 

[Alexem]

Alexem what else did you do besides the lie detector?

I've been holding on for a second action, but I chose to put some XP in to Nat instead of buying an action last night.

 

[Franconp]

I cannot make a three person scum team out of the players left. I think every player has something clearing one way or the other to the point I think we’re dealing with a deep wolf. Alex feels like a clear choice to me. Melon and Muffin feel like the next place I would look but I don’t think they’re paired and I think they both have things pointing away from them being scum. Maybe Turms but that doesn’t feel correct. If you want to vote me out based on that, go for it, but I legit don’t know what the solve is here.

Why not Ty?

 

[Franconp]

I think I want a full claim from Alexem. And quick if possible.

 

[Sorian]

how confident are you on Ty

Less confident than Alex and I agree with whoever said yesterday that Ty was the first person to publicly say something about RNG to their role which should be a townier move but working from the world where Alexem is scum, I don't see why he votes for me here over Ty. Voting me just makes this all a tie but voting for Ty would have made a clear leader. With this number of players, I don't think scum would fortify 3 wagons unless they had a reason.

 

[Chuggernaut]

Why not Ty?

I just think he’s played an extremely townie game up until now. I don’t think he’s felt paired, I think his solving has felt genuine, I think him claiming that RNG role first looks pretty good (although I guess scum could have a similar one) like there’s nothing mechanically clearing here but I think he looks very good socially and I just struggle to see it.

 

[Chuggernaut]

Less confident than Alex and I agree with whoever said yesterday that Ty was the first person to publicly say something about RNG to their role which should be a townier move but working from the world where Alexem is scum, I don't see why he votes for me here over Ty. Voting me just makes this all a tie but voting for Ty would have made a clear leader. With this number of players, I don't think scum would fortify 3 wagons unless they had a reason.

Okay I do hate that vote for you tbf.

 

[Alexem]

I think I want a full claim from Alexem. And quick if possible.

Alright, then - one is a roleblock. Not something that I wanted to use until I thought there was a decent chance of hitting scum, and with so many claims out, I didn't want to hit a legit claim by mistake.

The other is a bomb - I have one chance to activate it, and if I'm killed by scum that night, whoever calls in the kill gets taken with me.

 

[Franconp]

The other is a bomb - I have one chance to activate it, and if I'm killed by scum that night, whoever calls in the kill gets taken with me.

Why did you never tried to bait a kill?

 

[Alexem]

Why did you never tried to bait a kill?

Because I didn't have enough points to claim it.

 

[Ty4on]

Why was Wizard so obsessed with Sorian?

 

[Aeleus]

Alright, then - one is a roleblock. Not something that I wanted to use until I thought there was a decent chance of hitting scum, and with so many claims out, I didn't want to hit a legit claim by mistake.

The other is a bomb - I have one chance to activate it, and if I'm killed by scum that night, whoever calls in the kill gets taken with me.

what's the flavour of the role?

 

[Alexem]

what's the flavour of the role?

Monk, with the actions being themed 'speak the truth' for the lie detector, 'silent vow' for the role detector and 'strike thee down' for the bomb.

 

[Ty4on]

I did intend to answer @Franconp last night about that Wizard thing but decided to skip but I was thinking about it more this morning. It seems like a natural read to me of someone who wasn't actually sure about the spot. Shockingly, I think that was one of the more honest votes on Neon. The flip flopping of slight town read to slight scum read and back reeks of confused town on day 1 not sure what to do with a vote that's kind of shit. Obviously, the vote itself was placed to "not create ties" but at that moment, that reason actually made sense since it came in before the rest of the avalanche of votes. Idk, I think it looks fine? It was definitely a little of an excuse to grab exp imo but I've already made my feelings clear about how NAI it is to want exp.

Wizard scumread Neon for a while, mellowed and moved off, moved back just before the votes rushed in.

 

[Sorian]

Why was Wizard so obsessed with Sorian?

You tell me, it's your partner.

 

[Alexem]

Monk, with the actions being themed 'speak the truth' for the lie detector, 'silent vow' for the role detector and 'strike thee down' for the bomb.

Role blocker, not role detector. Should go without saying, although if scum had a role cop I doubt it'd do them much good in a room full of JOATs.

 

[Ty4on]

You tell me, it's your partner.

I never read my own partners and now he is dead :'(

How did you read his pretty consistent scumread of you? He voted you D1 and D4 and from what I can gather you had a soft town read of him.

 

[Ty4on]

Seems like everyone skipped over the post where I gave what I assume is a vest to melon.

I could go Sorian here, of the louder folk it seems like he is solving the least imo

Look, this is to you and also to Turmoil (and maybe Ty, I forget what Ty said about his vote). I appreciate the vote of confidence that people assume I am some masterful mafia player but we've been down this road a million times. I am a barely above average solver, any type of legacy I have in your minds is from my scum play not my town play. I'm not sure what you are expecting from me but I've been trying to solve plenty. And to Turm, since you want to shade my "bad" vote record, by all means, show me who has a good vote record in your opinion. We are on day 4 and a full vote was used up on a red check. You can just admit you are mad that I voted you day 1 when you seem to have been barely playing that day because you didn't have a role yet.

Hmf, this is slightly unpairing. Slightly >:(

I think the most unpairing is seemingly being so frustrated he missed the first line and replied to it later.

 

[Sorian]

Role blocker, not role detector. Should go without saying, although if scum had a role cop I doubt it'd do them much good in a room full of JOATs.

lmao, I'm not even going to bother.

I never read my own partners and now he is dead :'(

How did you read his pretty consistent scumread of you? He voted you D1 and D4 and from what I can gather you had a soft town read of him.

I am the easiest mislynch in the world mid to late game unless I can mechanically clear myself and I am also a magnet for parked votes day 1 and 2 because it's the easy meme to just suspect Sorian, in hindsight, this is just scum setting the table for when he wants to make the big push on me on whatever day he thought would be easiest. I'm pretty sure that was supposed to be today before Fran shot him and I'm sure he didn't like that I was posturing a very important night action when I asked not to be voted out yesterday even though all I was going to do was add another gossip chat to the game.

And I mean yeah, you pulled a post from what day 1 or day 2? He had a fairly strong opening before becoming a wall flower afterwards. That's why I had him as potential shopkeeper, it makes sense with that role to make a good first impression and then once people start interacting with the shop, just ignoring the game since you have people who are no longer interested in you.

 

[Ty4on]

I am the easiest mislynch in the world mid to late game unless I can mechanically clear myself and I am also a magnet for parked votes day 1 and 2 because it's the easy meme to just suspect Sorian, in hindsight, this is just scum setting the table for when he wants to make the big push on me on whatever day he thought would be easiest. I'm pretty sure that was supposed to be today before Fran shot him and I'm sure he didn't like that I was posturing a very important night action when I asked not to be voted out yesterday even though all I was going to do was add another gossip chat to the game.

And I mean yeah, you pulled a post from what day 1 or day 2? He had a fairly strong opening before becoming a wall flower afterwards. That's why I had him as potential shopkeeper, it makes sense with that role to make a good first impression and then once people start interacting with the shop, just ignoring the game since you have people who are no longer interested in you.

This seems to be your last Wizard read posted after malus was outed.

Hi hi, sorry for missing the day so far yesterday was my anniversary and I'm feeling under the weather today. Going to pour myself a hot lemsip and get down to catching up on what has happened today.

Oh, what a pure post before going and reading the chaos.

Do you remember what read, however vague it was, you had of Wizard at the time?

 

[Sorian]

This seems to be your last Wizard read posted after malus was outed.

Do you remember what read, however vague it was, you had of Wizard at the time?

Not really, I read around that post a little bit and I think I was in the mindset of ignore him and see how the game plays out more so I probably was already theorizing about the shopkeeper identity because I started ignoring Natiko around that time too.

 

[turmoil7]

Alright, then - one is a roleblock. Not something that I wanted to use until I thought there was a decent chance of hitting scum, and with so many claims out, I didn't want to hit a legit claim by mistake.

The other is a bomb - I have one chance to activate it, and if I'm killed by scum that night, whoever calls in the kill gets taken with me.

Which tier is each skill? Have you used them?

 

[turmoil7]

This is my actual third thing, I don't think it's fair that I didn't answer this in the moment because now there is so much new information but if I had answered at the time, I don't think my answer would have been wildly different. I would have said Muffin or Geno today and Turm as a distant possibility. Now that said, and this is shade at Turmoil tbh, I already said I had cooled on wanting to vote out Turm so I find it funny that he is making his vote for me about himself as if he's a big piece of my radar anymore but whatever.

Obviously with the new posts from today, Turm has dropped down to like 0 for me (I forgot to say in the last post, if you are going to counter claim Turmoil, you absolutely should just come out with it, even if you have more doctor shots or whatever, going 1:1 with a scum fake claim is always worth it).

So, I'm between Muffin and Geno, socially I vote Muffin here but Geno's tunnel has went on longer than I would have expected considering we've SEEN a scum flip now. @nin1000 did you ever confirm the gossip chat with Muffin? Would be a wild thing to lie about but I want to verify.

You know what, for competitive wagons sake:

VOTE: Geno

(Look at this asshole, he has a couple votes and he immediately tries to form a counter wagon, little do they know I'm actually trying to save Chuggs now)

Those posts by Sorian seem iffy to me, yes Geno was in a tunnel but did you feel he was scum at the time?

(I feel as an hypocrite bringing this up as I was the first to entertain voting for Geno that day IIRC but anyways)

-----

Alex if you are town and you survive you should try to use your roleblock power on who you think is the scumplayer who will make the NK

 

[turmoil7]

Ok, going to put my vote down

vote: Alexem

 

[Hedin]

==== DAY 5 VOTES ====
Day Start

Alexem (4 votes)
Sorian - #3,108
Chuggernaut - #3,148
Aeleus - #3,218
turmoil7 - #3,265

Ty4on (3 votes)
Franconp - #3,137
Muffin - #3,145
melonrabbit - #3,193

Sorian (3 votes)
nin1000 - #3,102
Ty4on - #3,169
Alexem - #3,207

melonrabbit (0 votes)
Sorian - #3,054 #3,108
Chuggernaut - #3,082 #3,148
Alexem - #3,095 #3,207

Not voting: Zippedpinhead, Natiko

Post Counts:
melonrabbit: 48 Chuggernaut: 36 Ty4on: 34 Sorian: 32 Aeleus: 30 Franconp: 29 turmoil7: 18 Alexem: 16 Zippedpinhead: 13 Muffin: 12 Natiko: 5 nin1000: 2

Current Countdown:

Click here to go to the Vote Tool!

 

[Ty4on]

This thing here kinda stuck out to me. Let's get all of the Neon voters first as a reference since that is what Alexem is posting about:

Neon (10 votes)
Chuggernaut - #240 #678
Chuggernaut - #911
Fireblend - #914
nin1000 - #946
turmoil7 - #989
Sawneeks - #1,083
CaptainNuevo - #1,092
The Wizard - #1,094
malus - #1,105
Blargonaut - #1,107
Zippedpinhead - #1,111

Hard to deny that Chuggs looks worse after that flip, but it could also have been a bad pick that got amplified by scum. Obviously Febe doesn't fit the bill there, but the votes afterwards could hide meanies - Nin, Turmoil and Sneeks could all fit into that range, being third fourth and fifth on the train. Find a possible wagon, give it a push, then wait for townies to seal the deal, I've seen that enough times in early phases.

The neon vote was so large because everyone wants exp for their abilities.

as I said at the end of the day yesterday, this is the game we signed up for. It encourages bandwagons.

This is very true and I think it's something that we all need to bear in mind - this game's designed to encourage people to drop the hammer faster than they can aim it, all in the name of scoring XP. It also makes it harder to pick out votes on a train that may be scummy from ones that were just opportunistic XP harvesting. I suppose the latter's more likely from the final votes, but it'd be easy enough for scum to hide themselves that way.

By far the most interesting people on that wagon to us right now are Wizard and malus. Neither were mentioned by Alexem above, but later when he went offline Fran brought them up while talking to Chuggs.

What are your thoughts on Wiz and Malus? Both jumped on that wagon and neither of them liked the lynch.

I'm going to be honest. I was town reading Wiz and Malus most of yesterday and that hasn't really changed for me and I kind of like them not caring how they looked at the end there, but I need to go back and look at those two again. This is not a hard town read for either of them, and I don't think either are doing anything they can't do as scum.

When Alexem returned the next day they opened up with this post.

My hunch is still that Chuggs was used as a patsy by scum to get a safety train going. I'm not going to defend Chuggs's vote for Neon considering where it ended up, but considering that Chuggs had enough attention on him in D1, I think it would have been pretty brazen for scum!Chuggs to kick off a train by himself.

What makes you think the end of the train is town?

Here's what I'd like to think about next - why do I feel worse about the middle of the train? If scum wanted to take advantage of a new elimination candidate for whatever reason, I think they'd want to make sure it was viable. To that end, I think there's more of an advantage to kicking the tyres on a vote that someone else kicks off, then seeing if it takes off or if they have to shop around for another plan.

We know Febe's clean, so next after him came Nin, then Turmoil, then Sneeks, then Cap, then Wiz, then Malus, then Blarg and lastly Zipped. If I assume for the sake of argument that Chuggs was a misguided townie, where would scum come in to see that the train takes off? Towards the end, it's already going and scum would have a need to get a clear mis-hit - remember that votes were tied for a while, so it'd be risky to just trade horses between those trains and possibly have two or three of them end up level, denying them a D1 'kill'. Boosting a new candidate that could potentially draw votes away from any of the existing wagons could have given them a shot at another mis-hit, or left enough votes on an existing wagon while the others bled out to make that happen.

To me, then, the timing fits for the group of voters after Febe - that would have been the right time to push a new train and get eyes on it before it had a chance to fizzle out. That would put Nin, Turmoil, Sneeks and maybe Cap in to that timing window. Of those, Turmoil was already under scrutiny, so it could easily have been pounced on as a self-preservation vote - too risky for scum? Sneeks could fit the bill for the timing, but I have to admit that I'm still leaning town on her for her tenacity. Cap's a trickier one - the pre-typed post certainly doesn't inspire confidence, but was that vote past the point where the train had taken off in earnest - would scum!Cap needed to have voted there? Out of that bunch, that leaves Nin, who's been one of the lesser spotted players. I'm wondering if Nin might have been trying to fly under the radar yesterday? If so, getting in quick with the third vote might have been a decent way to blend in.

As for the votes that followed - it's quite possible that there's a meanie there grabbing for experience, but I think getting the train going would have been more important. Again, I don't know if Cap would fall in to the middle or late ground of voters, I can see his timing either way. Wiz and Malus may have had motivations - Wiz in breaking a tie, which could have helped scum to avoid a no kill, Malus is hopping in after a quiet day. Like Nin, Malus could be another low flyer, I can't rule that out. Blarg's vote was very... Blarg, and Zipped was going for experience. By the time that the last two votes went on, though, I think the deal was done. Having said that, though, Zipped's vote does fly in the face of his warning about the experience rule promoting clumsy hammers.

Here endeth the wall of text. I think there's a meanie or two to be found on that train, and I'm still of the opinion that voting relatively early would have been more helpful to scum to make the train work. Added to my concerns about playing quietly, and I think Nin's vote is the one that I'm most suspicious of.

VOTE: nin

Two things stick out the most to me. The reasoning for going nin feels.. odd? Like it was decided in advance and he's trying to build a narrative for it. It's not that nin beamed town from that vote, but it's so much text blaming nin for kicking off a misyeet.

That section about Wiz and Malus is very awkward. It's almost too awkward to feel S/S. There are some pretty strong reasons to scumread both of them that don't go anywhere.

 

[Ty4on]

I noticed an inconsistency when looking at those quotes together:

Hard to deny that Chuggs looks worse after that flip, but it could also have been a bad pick that got amplified by scum. Obviously Febe doesn't fit the bill there, but the votes afterwards could hide meanies - Nin, Turmoil and Sneeks could all fit into that range, being third fourth and fifth on the train. Find a possible wagon, give it a push, then wait for townies to seal the deal, I've seen that enough times in early phases.

My hunch is still that Chuggs was used as a patsy by scum to get a safety train going. I'm not going to defend Chuggs's vote for Neon considering where it ended up, but considering that Chuggs had enough attention on him in D1, I think it would have been pretty brazen for scum!Chuggs to kick off a train by himself.

I can't help but read the first post as being quite sus of Chuggs so I don't quite understand why you would see yourself as essentially townreading him the next day.

To me it looks like Alexem essentially forget that he scumread, or at the very least hedged the alignment of Chuggs yesterday.

 

[Ty4on]

Wagonomics thoughts

• Neon
  • There's been some talk of how xp switches up traditional incentives. I think someone (malus?) made a point about grabbing an xp point because there are limited spots before hammer and a point that goes to town can deny a point to scum. I could see a scum team having a similar point of view. We don't know how their powers work yet but it makes sense that everyone wants xp. It makes sense that scum would be on this.
  • Removing Febe and myself leaves 8. Chuggs I feel good about. nin is a bit of a wildcard, don't love that he ignored me about his Neon vote but I also don't expect consistency from him. turm is definitely more in the background today but I liked some of his day 1 posts. Sneeks I hope Ael helps clear up cause something felt off despite some high effort posts. Captain went from posting about fluff to mechanics, votes seem like pretty blatant self-preservation moves. malus is in the background as usual, I think the vote itself was pretty weak in shading it while joining. Blarg I'm liking what I saw today, slightly paranoid about the claim but I think he's not just relying on that to do nothing. Zipped seemed like a blatant xp grab, which I could see town!zipped doing but he's not giving us anything.
    • Poe: nin, Captain, malus, zipped,
    • Would like to have figured out: turm, Ael
• Turm (town lean)
  • Feel good about TWE, neon was town. If turm is also town could be scum between Nat or Sorian here. Coming off day 1 I'd flip Sorian before Nat but it does seem like Sorian has mellowed as the game goes on and one of my fears (that his hard defense of Neon was a chainsaw) is alleviated.
• Ty (town lean)
  • Geno and Alexem on here, would flip Alex before Geno as I think it's weird that there was resistance to the vote there yesterday. I've seen scum Geno do the stubborn tunnel thing so I think he could be scum here too.
• Captain (scum?)
  • I like both Fran and Ty. If there was a scum in contention yesterday Captain is my guess.
• Off wagon islanders
  • I still like HP and melon
  • muffin I'm kinda null on.

I know don’t have a degree in wagonomics, but that isn’t wagonomics. That’s a readlist lmao

Anyways Wizard was pretty consistent in scumreading Alexem and voted him D1. He stopped mentioning him later in the game.

 

[Sorian]

Those posts by Sorian seem iffy to me, yes Geno was in a tunnel but did you feel he was scum at the time?

(I feel as an hypocrite bringing this up as I was the first to entertain voting for Geno that day IIRC but anyways)

-----

Alex if you are town and you survive you should try to use your roleblock power on who you think is the scumplayer who will make the NK

Obviously, the reason I was fine with either wagon because I assume Muffin is a contender when I made that post, is that I still think malus had a teammate in that one post I quoted a few times. I’m less sure now because it’s just Muffin left and I keep going back and forth on what his role could be if he’s scum and his just blatant disregard of interacting with anyone. I think Alex is open wolfing so it’s not really something I need to worry about now.

——-

Ty’s posts are really good and now I’m just doing WIFOM with myself in if this is some way to distance from Alex. I just don’t get why Alex’s self preservation is on me and not Ty.

 

[Ty4on]

Obviously, the reason I was fine with either wagon because I assume Muffin is a contender when I made that post, is that I still think malus had a teammate in that one post I quoted a few times. I’m less sure now because it’s just Muffin left and I keep going back and forth on what his role could be if he’s scum and his just blatant disregard of interacting with anyone. I think Alex is open wolfing so it’s not really something I need to worry about now.

Muffin muffin…

I keep wondering if he could be scum, but never got to reading him.

I think I found a decent post in his favor where Wiz quoted a malus post and went “This looks good for Muffin” which I think was a bit on the nose for a teammate.

I’m on mobile right now and too lazy to bring it up.

 

[Alexem]

Which tier is each skill? Have you used them?

T1: Lie detector
T2: Roleblock
T3: Bomb

The lie detector's been used, but not the others. I've not gone into a night phase with 6 XP, so I've not been able to buy the bomb.

 

[Chuggernaut]

Obviously, the reason I was fine with either wagon because I assume Muffin is a contender when I made that post, is that I still think malus had a teammate in that one post I quoted a few times. I’m less sure now because it’s just Muffin left and I keep going back and forth on what his role could be if he’s scum and his just blatant disregard of interacting with anyone. I think Alex is open wolfing so it’s not really something I need to worry about now.

——-

Ty’s posts are really good and now I’m just doing WIFOM with myself in if this is some way to distance from Alex. I just don’t get why Alex’s self preservation is on me and not Ty.

Yeah these recent Ty posts are why I’m really struggling with scum reading that slot. He just feels so town in his solving

 

[Hedin]

==== DAY 5 VOTES ====
Day Start

Alexem (4 votes)
Sorian - #3,108
Chuggernaut - #3,148
Aeleus - #3,218
turmoil7 - #3,265

Ty4on (3 votes)
Franconp - #3,137
Muffin - #3,145
melonrabbit - #3,193

Sorian (3 votes)
nin1000 - #3,102
Ty4on - #3,169
Alexem - #3,207

melonrabbit (0 votes)
Sorian - #3,054 #3,108
Chuggernaut - #3,082 #3,148
Alexem - #3,095 #3,207

Not voting: Zippedpinhead, Natiko

Post Counts:
melonrabbit: 48 Ty4on: 38 Chuggernaut: 37 Sorian: 33 Aeleus: 30 Franconp: 29 turmoil7: 18 Alexem: 17 Zippedpinhead: 13 Muffin: 12 Natiko: 5 nin1000: 2

Current Countdown:

Click here to go to the Vote Tool!

 

[Franconp]

Anyone interested in a Chuggs wagon? We have time.

 

[Ty4on]

lol

 

[Sorian]

Anyone interested in a Chuggs wagon? We have time.

I still don’t see it but his very light presence today has been noted.

 

[Alexem]

lol

I concur.

 

[Chuggernaut]

I still don’t see it but his very light presence today has been noted.

Thread keeps being dead when I can be around and active when I’m not lmfao

 

[Chuggernaut]

But again, I truly don’t know after Alex so do what you will with that

 

[melonrabbit]

Ty’s posts are really good and now I’m just doing WIFOM with myself in if this is some way to distance from Alex. I just don’t get why Alex’s self preservation is on me and not Ty.

Feels desperate.

 

[melonrabbit]

Anyone interested in a Chuggs wagon? We have time.

Yeah if we could get the votes.

 

[melonrabbit]

@Zippedpinhead @Natiko yall voting today?

 

[turmoil7]

2 cop shots, 2 tracker shots, 1 lie detector, 1 role-block, 1 weak hider, is that all?

Seems a bit too much imo, with some luck town could cripple scum in the early game.

Now which is a fakeclaim...?

 

[Franconp]

lol

I concur.

Fine...

This was Wiz PoE. He must have put a partner there:

PoE:
Natiko
Fran
Alexem
Sorian
Geno

Geno was town, I'm confirmed and Natiko is neutral. That only leaves us with Sorian and Alexem. I would lynch one today and, if we miss, lynch the other tomorrow.

 

[Franconp]

2 cop shots, 2 tracker shots, 1 lie detector, 1 role-block, 1 weak hider, is that all?

Seems a bit too much imo, with some luck town could cripple scum in the early game.

Now which is a fakeclaim...?

2 roleblocks I think. Blarg had one. Didn't Melon claimed roleblock too?

 

[Aeleus]

2 roleblocks I think. Blarg had one. Didn't Melon claimed roleblock too?

Melon was hide, track and commute

 

[Franconp]

And I think that 2 hiders. Both Sorian and Melon claimed it.

@melonrabbit why you never used the hide?

 

[Franconp]

Melon was hide, track and commute

Maybe it was Alexem then? Someone else claimed roleblocker.

 

[Aeleus]

I concur with melon on Ty4on's recent efforts feeling a bit desperate, felt like he wanted to put a vote on alexem but felt the need to do some research in order to justify it.

Maybe it was Alexem then? Someone else claimed roleblocker.

Yeah it was

 

[Chuggernaut]

Melon how does your hiding shot work

 

[Ty4on]

But again, I truly don’t know after Alex so do what you will with that

Do you have your reasons for why everybody is clear? I guess except Zipped and Fran who're basically cleared.

For me it would in order be something like this:
Zipped and Fran killed scum.
nin1000 - green check from Sorian. Towny explanation timing of Natiko's chat.
Aeleus - Towny roleclaim. Defended Geno when he was an easy target.
Chuggernaut - Towny WIM. Reads lack bad agenda. Role seemingly has town equity.
turmoil7 - Agenda seems pure. Pushed in a non pairing way by scum.
melonrabbit - Forgotten by malus. Pseudo cleared by Wizard.
Muffin - Awkward scum role. "Cleared" by Wizard.
Natiko - Claimed neutral and has played to that wincon.
Sorian - Pestered by Wizard.

 

[Ty4on]

2 cop shots, 2 tracker shots, 1 lie detector, 1 role-block, 1 weak hider, is that all?

Seems a bit too much imo, with some luck town could cripple scum in the early game.

Now which is a fakeclaim...?

My abilities are 50% commute, 75% commute and 100% commute BTW.

 

[Ty4on]

I concur with melon on Ty4on's recent efforts feeling a bit desperate, felt like he wanted to put a vote on alexem but felt the need to do some research in order to justify it.

Am I supposed to not solve?

All of this is relevant when I flip green.

 

[Sorian]

Do you have your reasons for why everybody is clear? I guess except Zipped and Fran who're basically cleared.

For me it would in order be something like this:
Zipped and Fran killed scum.
nin1000 - green check from Sorian. Towny explanation timing of Natiko's chat.
Aeleus - Towny roleclaim. Defended Geno when he was an easy target.
Chuggernaut - Towny WIM. Reads lack bad agenda. Role seemingly has town equity.
turmoil7 - Agenda seems pure. Pushed in a non pairing way by scum.
melonrabbit - Forgotten by malus. Pseudo cleared by Wizard.
Muffin - Awkward scum role. "Cleared" by Wizard.
Natiko - Claimed neutral and has played to that wincon.
Sorian - Pestered by Wizard.

Turmoil's clear to me is because he appears to have stopped a kill and Wiz even semi confirmed that himself.

 

[Ty4on]

Turmoil's clear to me is because he appears to have stopped a kill and Wiz even semi confirmed that himself.

Oh right, good point.

UNVOTE

 

[Sorian]

Oh right, good point.

UNVOTE

Is there a reason why this unvote has nothing to do with the content of the message?

 

[nin1000]

Anyone interested in a Chuggs wagon? We have time.

Convince me with two words hermano

 

[Ty4on]

Is there a reason why this unvote has nothing to do with the content of the message?

It's a townie post shrinking the poe

 

[nin1000]

If Sorian won’t be today, I could go Alexem