Shunka Shuto: Natiko
I think wee can pull off that whole Lightning Rod argument even if she knew that the shot got refunded. She could've been baiting for the block for all we know. The chances are that she will use LR again tonight and we have two ways to deal with that. Either I NK or we block wee. The former leads to us missing a scan / kill and the latter increases the chances that the NK goes through, since we could then redirect the RB to one of Launch and Nat.
I prefer blocking wee. In both scenarios I perform an intercontinental action on a confirmed townie. I die if I am seen doing this but since there is no avoiding this, we should not care about me. We instead should care about the kill and you three. Blocking wee and redirecting Brazil secures your asses, only intercontinental actions can hit you and there is nothing we can do against those anyway. Leaving wee unblocked means that she could do something and we can't be sure that LR is all that something can mean.
Since we can't control both of Launch and Nat, there always be some uncertainty about whether or not the kill will go through. A block there does not make the kill certain, it merely increases the odds of it landing. All in all, this is the gamble debate again: how much do we bet? I am willing to go for Launch as the NK, but I don't think bets greater than that are worth it.