Scooby Doo 2: Mafia Unleashed - This time there are costumes!

[Alien]

I think a mass claim might be a good idea

 

[Lightning Strikes]

I think a mass claim might be a good idea

LOL

 

[Lightning Strikes]

@Alien
Why Mass Claim now when we just hit three scum in a row?

Scum are on the ropes. of course they can turn this around if we hit two town in a row and arsonist hits big but how is now a better time to mass claim vs later?

 

[San Franpsycho]

Is it totally inconceivable that after losing CGG and Gnome scum decided their best chance was to consecutively bus? First Woodsman and then Kook. If Sans is the Arsonist it would mean they only need one misvote to have three more town lined up to die. This is obviously reliant on the Arsonist not being Neutral but at this point I feel that's kinda unlikely because the WinCon just seems overly harsh.

The way you are flogging this math thing, jfc.

Okay, listen: There is one person doused. If the arsonist just has to make four (standard rules), then they ignite tonight if not caught, win, and exit. That is not "three more town" lined up - that's one, potentially, if SC is town.

If we misvote today and do not catch scum and arsonist and the arsonist douses another, that's STILL not "three town lined up to die."

Where are you getting these numbers?
Why are you so convinced SC is town?
Where are these dead town you're thinking about when the PoE is so small and the hit rate so good?

 

[San Franpsycho]

I think a mass claim might be a good idea

What do we gain right now with a mass claim?

Look at the structure of the game now on day 37 or whatever it is. I can tell you exactly how a mass claim goes today and how it does NOT solve the game.

 

[Alien]

@Alien
Why Mass Claim now when we just hit three scum in a row?

Scum are on the ropes. of course they can turn this around if we hit two town in a row and arsonist hits big but how is now a better time to mass claim vs later?

You assume scum are on the ropes but based on what? Town hasn't played some unprecedented great game. We caught scum via a fake red check, an unforced error and either a player that stopped trying or allowed themselves to be bussed.

Maybe things are going exactly the way they want them to.

You say why not wait to mass claim. Why not do it now before scum have a chance to prepare?

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

four

I thought standard was 3 plus self. Did you go look up arsonist on a wiki?

 

[Alien]

We already apparently caught one scum based on a bad fake claim. Who's to say it doesn't happen again?

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

LOL

Yeah, LOL

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

We already apparently caught one scum based on a bad fake claim. Who's to say it doesn't happen again?

All the vanillas plus A dead vanilla cop and no trackers says it won’t happen again.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

I'm gonna die so I don't really give a shit. But sure why not.

Vote:BooBeard

Further to this I believe the two town players that will live to endgame will be Lightning and Boo.

 

[San Franpsycho]

I thought standard was 3 plus self. Did you go look up arsonist on a wiki?

No, it's been that way in the games I've played with an arsonist. I thought it was four, at least. Maybe it was three? However, the fact that the arsonist ignited in pieces may mean they have to go the distance OR could just mean they expected to win when they lit up the other night. Really no way to know. This isn't the point. The point is that Alien's math continues to be off and he's using it to handwring doom in a way that is not productive or helpful. Why?

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

Further to this I believe the two town players that will live to endgame will be Lightning and Boo. I've thought about it and those two both have the most obvious cases against them at this point in time (assuming myself and Kook are dead by this point). I've no doubt a veteran player would feel confident enough to be successful in a vote out scenario involving these two. In all seriousness if it does come down to you too genuinely think about why you're both still alive.

They won’t if the arsonist listens to me and douses them for us. Then the scummiest looking potential-town players can go, along with the neutral. And we have a nice small group to check if those weren’t the mafia. I don’t mind a neutral winning if they keep me from having to reread and think and clear out my sus list And make less days all at Once.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

Alien just Said the person he is voting for is his prediction for last two town

@Alien How do you fuck this up that bad Bro

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

No, it's been that way in the games I've played with an arsonist. I thought it was four, at least. Maybe it was three? However, the fact that the arsonist ignited in pieces may mean they have to go the distance OR could just mean they expected to win when they lit up the other night. Really no way to know. This isn't the point. The point is that Alien's math continues to be off and he's using it to handwring doom in a way that is not productive or helpful. Why?

Yeah. That’s why my vote is on him. He’s not town in behavior, needs to be flipped, if he’s town i hope next game he learns to do the exact opposite of everything he has done in this game, but i don’t really think he is town.

 

[San Franpsycho]

We already apparently caught one scum based on a bad fake claim. Who's to say it doesn't happen again?

So, okay. You want to gamble this game on maybe catching another bad fake claim. This is your idea? This is your big solve? Because what likely happens at this point is that most of the game is vanilla and we end up going through vanillas because "they can't all be vanillas!" and it either leaves us right back here or with a bunch of dead vanillas and us saying "oh, well, guess we really did have a lot of vanillas in a game with a vanilla cop, who knew."

Can you answer the questions I asked you last night instead?

 

[Lightning Strikes]

I'm gonna die so I don't really give a shit. But sure why not.

Vote:BooBeard

Further to this I believe the two town players that will live to endgame will be Lightning and Boo.

The fact that this turnaround was less than 12 hours means this is literally the real plan your discussing for who to bring to LYLO in Scum chat huh.

any explanation for this at all?

 

[San Franpsycho]

It's funny. Alien flipped out at day start when a lot of votes hit. "Oh fine, kill me, deliver me from this." Same thing on d1, when it was "I'll stan for Boo, sure, kill me, my role is boring anyway."

But those early votes usually don't stay unless we all agree to a turbo, so like clockwork, people started to look elsewhere. 48 hours is a lot of hours.

And so now here's Alien now suddenly desperate to live and "solve" through math that is somehow incorrect after he's been corrected.

I cannot figure out this behavior. Like it doesn't make sense from anyone and we don't do jesters. I know I'm not the first person to say it about Alien but I am truly stumped.

 

[San Franpsycho]

As an aside, for hilarity: my first game ever had an arsonist, but they were collecting waifus and escaping with them in a van or something. It was anime-themed.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

As an aside, for hilarity: my first game ever had an arsonist, but they were collecting waifus and escaping with them in a van or something. It was anime-themed.

That is very upsetting.

 

[San Franpsycho]

#ThatsAnimeForYou

 

[Lightning Strikes]

#ThatsAnimeForYou

#NotAllAnimeFans

I love watching anime but That Waifu shit is always Gross as Fuck.

 

[San Franpsycho]

We continually play a game about murdering and gaslighting our friends. It hits me sometimes - when I was running my first game, about halfway through, I realized how dark it was to keep writing flavor about all these beloved characters dying brutally.

But no, it's not all anime. When I think about the shit I watched as a teen, I wonder how I became a decent human, but again, I'm here playing the murder game so... maybe I didn't.

Oh well. I'm going to go have a late lunch and when I'm back, maybe Alien will have answered my question.

 

[Alien]

Y'know it occurs to me I actually get zero enjoyment out of playing Mafia.

I only started playing to help out Loki and all I've ever achieved is to make myself feel like a fucking moron every month.

This will probably be my last game.

 

[Pazzo the Ghost Clown]

Alien just Said the person he is voting for is his prediction for last two town

@Alien How do you fuck this up that bad Bro

 

[Lightning Strikes]

Y'know it occurs to me I actually get zero enjoyment out of playing Mafia.

I only started playing to help out Loki and all I've ever achieved is to make myself feel like a fucking moron every month.

This will probably be my last game.

I hope this is not your last game :(

Maybe all you need is a bit of a break.

I was having a Miserable time Last season every game I was in torture and I was having no fun.

After I skipped a few few games I came back for mystery mafia were even though I got upset and subbed out I had a good time thinking of strategy and things.

My current approach is to just think about strategy and try to improve. If I get just a tiny bit better or learn anything it's ok that I make misplays during the game.



Instead of stopping Mafia forever Alien you should maybe try taking a break for a few months and Come back with a different Mindset.

Maybe try starting in spec chat for some games and just hang out and talk to people. We would hate to lose you from the community.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

@Alien

I am sorry if my snark is contributing to you having a Bad time. I get a little caught up in trying to catch mafia that I forgot about the feelings of the real life person.

How do you fuck this up that bad Bro

This comment in purticular was Uncalled for and needlessly mean. I apologize

 

[Alien]

@Alien
This comment in purticular was Uncalled for and needlessly mean. I apologize

No need to apologise. I should've never started playing to begin with.

 

[Pazzo the Ghost Clown]

Woodsman – 3
San Franpsycho
Lightning Strikes
Snow Creature
The Ghost of Stealin Stan

San Franpsycho – 2
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
BooBeard

Wax Phantom – 1
Captain Skunkbeard

BooBeard – 1
Snow Ghost

Pazzo the Ghost Clown – 1
Alien

Spooky Space Kook – 1
Lightning Strikes

Snow Creature – 1
Woodsman

Alien – 0
Lightning Strikes

Okay, picking up the votes from this moment. We’re about five hours from day end, Lightning Strikes has hopped around a good amount but that’s a trend that continues all day. One thing worth noting is that when Snow Creature voted for Woodsman it was actually tied 2-2, so he broke the tie at that juncture. Woodsman has been in the lead by one vote for over 12 hours at this point. It’s followed then by Spooky Space Kook posting a case on Woodsman, her self admitted only scum read. Lightning follows behind.

---------------

Woodsman – 5
San Franpsycho
Lightning Strikes
Snow Creature
The Ghost of Stealin Stan
Spooky Space Kook
Lightning Strikes

San Franpsycho – 2
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
BooBeard

Wax Phantom – 1
Captain Skunkbeard

BooBeard – 1
Snow Ghost

Pazzo the Ghost Clown – 1
Alien

Snow Creature – 1
Woodsman

Spooky Space Kook – 0
Lightning Strikes

Alien – 0
Lightning Strikes

This is a bit of a curious moment, because you see Lightning go from voting for Kook to sheeping her vote. It’s possible for this to be a bus (from either, really) and scum just viewed Woodsman as a lost cause at this point given he was in the lead and there didn’t seem to be a particularly clear counter wagon that was building at the time.

---------------

Woodsman – 4
San Franpsycho
Lightning Strikes
Snow Creature
The Ghost of Stealin Stan
Spooky Space Kook
Lightning Strikes

San Franpsycho – 2
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
BooBeard

Snow Creature – 2
Woodsman
Captain Skunkbeard

BooBeard – 1
Snow Ghost

Pazzo the Ghost Clown – 1
Alien

Lightning Strikes – 1
Neon Phantom

Spooky Space Kook – 0
Lightning Strikes

Wax Phantom – 0
Captain Skunkbeard

Alien – 0
Lightning Strikes

Next we have Skunkbeard professing a desire to vote Woodsman, but not wanting to put it close to turbo so going with a secondary scum read in Creature (ironically joining her other scum read on that vote). (Don't yell at me Lightning) I don't put much stock in this though because of who previously was in this slot - it's meta, I know, but I just doubt there's scum here. Not impossible, but not super likely. Lightning continues to let his vote frolic to and fro, this time unvoting due to Woodsman claiming. Neon votes off wagon for Lightning. Two hours to go til day end.

---------------

Woodsman – 4
San Franpsycho
Lightning Strikes
Snow Creature
The Ghost of Stealin Stan
Spooky Space Kook
Lightning Strikes

San Franpsycho – 3
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
BooBeard
Alien

Snow Creature – 2
Woodsman
Captain Skunkbeard

Spooky Space Kook – 2
Lightning Strikes
Snow Ghost
Lightning Strikes

BooBeard – 1
Snow Ghost

Lightning Strikes – 1
Neon Phantom

Pazzo the Ghost Clown – 0
Alien

Wax Phantom – 0
Captain Skunkbeard

Alien – 0
Lightning Strikes

Next up we have Snow Ghost voting for Kook, citing her being the secondary many want and hoping to get some wagonomics. Lighting immediately sheeps. Alien then comes along stating he is fine with the Woodsman vote, but that Sans sticks out more from his post analysis. He isn’t as sure on a Kook vote. This makes the wagons a bit closer – 4v3 in favor of Woodsman. Kook is at 2 as is Creature.

---------------

Woodsman – 4
San Franpsycho
Lightning Strikes
Snow Creature
The Ghost of Stealin Stan
Spooky Space Kook
Lightning Strikes

San Franpsycho – 4
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
BooBeard
Alien
Lightning Strikes

Snow Creature – 2
Woodsman
Captain Skunkbeard

Spooky Space Kook – 1
Lightning Strikes
Snow Ghost
Lightning Strikes

BooBeard – 1
Snow Ghost

Lightning Strikes – 1
Neon Phantom

Pazzo the Ghost Clown – 0
Alien

Wax Phantom – 0
Captain Skunkbeard

Alien – 0
Lightning Strikes

So this is sort of the pivotal moment, Lightning swings to Sans making it a tie. There is 17 minutes left before day end. Alien starts hollering about how the Woodsman vote is the exact same scenario as Ghost Bear if he flips town, I can only assume meaning he thinks there wouldn’t be useful vote data. It’s unclear why this would be the case given it’s literally tied at this moment.

---------------

Woodsman – 7
San Franpsycho
Lightning Strikes
Snow Creature
The Ghost of Stealin Stan
Spooky Space Kook
Lightning Strikes
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
Alien
Neon Phantom

Snow Creature – 2
Woodsman
Captain Skunkbeard

San Franpsycho – 1
Pazzo the Ghost Clown
BooBeard
Alien
Lightning Strikes

Spooky Space Kook – 1
Lightning Strikes
Snow Ghost
Lightning Strikes

BooBeard – 1
Snow Ghost

Pazzo the Ghost Clown – 0
Alien

Lightning Strikes – 0
Neon Phantom

Wax Phantom – 0
Captain Skunkbeard

Alien – 0
Lightning Strikes

I move to Woodsman after coming back and seeing the vote movement that had started occurring with 13 minutes left. Alien and Lightning continue to butt heads, Lightning asks if anyone wants to hop to Alien – Neon asks if anyone wants to hop to Lightning. It’s a bit of a mess, and then Alien sort of just seems over it and votes for Woodsman with T-9 minutes to go. Finally Lightning then unvotes and Neon votes Woodsman right as the phase ends.

---------------

Takeaways? Snow Creature looks pretty good – he broke the tie in favor of Woodsman early, he had the ability to jump late when it tied again and didn’t. If it’s a bus it’s committed. Kook, Lightning, Alien, and Neon all vote for Woodsman at times that didn’t present them the option of voting for a counter wagon to tie it; however Lightning of course does force a tie. I’ve purposefully forced many a tie in my day, so I don’t really scum read this – he didn’t put up a case at the time or anything. It wasn’t presented as a big push he was making. We also have the people that are off wagon, but of them only one appears to have been around on day end – Snow Ghost. Had to look back and remind myself which Snow person was vanilla checked by Snack, and that was Ghost so with Woodsman flipping as a goon he should be safe. Unless you want to go into paranoia land, which, speaking of if you really want to go into the paranoia rabbit hole…

Spoiler

You could ask why Woodsman never voted defensively.. all I’m saying is Sans has absolutely done the “I never get night killed because people always sorta vaguely are concerned I could be scum so I’m perpetually left alive!” thing as scum multiple times at game end. Uh, not a today or tomorrow thing, but maybe just keep it in mind if this actually gets to lylo lol

Fake Edit: Wow, BooBeard did so little he didn’t even really come up at all during that. Looking back BooBeard pokes at Woodsman with some light questioning early in the day phase, but comes back after I make my case on Sans and agrees then strongly suspects her. He votes for her while saying he’s “okay with a Woodsman kill” but that he “would go for San first”. He had some life stuff going on so that is what it is, but after the above post he never again makes a push. He never again talks about Woodsman, he doesn’t really talk about Sans, he just clarifies his reads on players not in contention and prods people to get votes down. This actually strikes me as almost as damning as Alien’s meltdown all told. Instead of word vomiting, he’s doing the opposite and says so little of relevance it strikes me as scummy.

Anyways, at this point my thoughts are this:

Town
Wax Phantom
Snow Ghost
Snow Creature
Captain Skunkbeard
Lightning Strikes
San Franpsycho
Neon Phantom
Spooky Space Kook
BooBeard
Alien
Scum

Bottom two are my picks for mafia, two above that would be my guesses at an arsonist. If there’s a deep wolf it’s probably Neon or Sans. Lighting isn’t impossible, but I just think the vote hopping at day end ultimately ended up looking more town than not. Guess he could be arsonist too, but eh. He clearly has something up his sleeve either way so when we do hit mass claim time I expect we’ll be able to resolve him more confidently. Let’s see if we can make the votes more interesting though:

VOTE: BooBeard

 

[Neon Phantom]

Neon [...] They are playing a really great game

Sorry I couldn't resist.

When someone mentioned checking to see if a player has never vote against a Doused target i went back and saw Neon has not pushed any doused targets.

I guess I'd ask you to consider that I don't exactly vote flexibly so there are a lot of people I haven't voted for, not just the doused.
Not sure I'd have voted for any of them anyway though.

A Bunch Of Arson Stuff From Various People

I have to admit, I'd assumed the Arsonist's failure to go away after the first ignition meant they were either after us all or would continue in the same pattern so we'd be risking swing chaos if we can't get shot of them first.
If that's not the case and they just have to hit a specific total if we don't get rid of them then maybe that's not so bad (depending on the total) but if they could be a little more even handed this time that would be swell. How many they'd need to make up might depend on what happened with Hyde because Wax wasn't exactly clear.

 

[Neon Phantom]

These are the people about whom I currently feel most concerned and will be attempting to look at somehow after I get some food.

Alien and Boo.
Even all these days in, these are still tied together. I need to separate them.
Alien sucks at trying to save himself but I don't know if that's because he's guilty or just because he doesn't know how.
My gut instinct is to label Boo slippery, so clearly that's something to try and pin down.

Lightning. I saw a post saying the scum team had it in for him. I need to find that post and then go and see if that's actually true and work out if I got caught in their narrative rather than my own or if my own suspicions hold.

Kooks.
This one is peer pressure, people are looking they're with varying strong opinions and at this point I have exactly nothing there. Blind spot needs fixing.

Snowghost.
I just really feel like I need to revisit him.
The Stan kill makes him the standout as the only remaining Boo voter and that gives me big what if that's what they want you to think / but what if that's what they want you to think they want you to think paranoia.

Whoever else I stumble across in the process.
Because I would love to just have a lightning bolt moment of clarity. Please.

 

[Pazzo the Ghost Clown]

Vote:Neon Phantom

Neon fits the profile of arsonist perfect to me. They are playing a really great game and Vote wise things line up ok. I kept getting red flag popping in my head because They never seem to stick there neck out that far to push despite having some decent points

Neon legit feels like he is trying to solve which a neutral would do since Mafia is unknown however does not want to bee a focus of attention.

When someone mentioned checking to see if a player has never vote against a Doused target i went back and saw Neon has not pushed any doused targets.

This is not a strong read and I am terrible at Vote analyzing so Can some one double check my work looking at Neon's Vote history and pushes

Oh hey, I somehow missed this post. I also forgot I thought of that idea lol That's good info to have then, especially as it lines up with some of my thoughts post-D5 analysis. Neon just hasn't had any real pressure all game, he's not been a huge presence like some players but he's around just enough to not catch suspicion. An arsonist would have the benefit of not knowing who mafia are and can just engage similarly as town on that matter, but wouldn't want to make themselves a NK target by going all out.

 

[Pazzo the Ghost Clown]

Man, if D1 really was BooBeard + Alien as scum pulling a gambit with the new player thing, yeesh. Bravo for that. Also makes the votes look pretty different with three scum stacked on Anthos at that point when you factor in Gnome.

 

[San Franpsycho]

You could ask why Woodsman never voted defensively.. all I’m saying is Sans has absolutely done the “I never get night killed because people always sorta vaguely are concerned I could be scum so I’m perpetually left alive!” thing as scum multiple times at game end. Uh, not a today or tomorrow thing, but maybe just keep it in mind if this actually gets to lylo lol

I'm gonna go ahead and point out that the last time we were at end game together, I had been saying this for days, and was in fact town, and you realized it was in fact true and that I was also in fact purposely kept alive until endgame to serve that very purpose, so....

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If I was scum and it was an ultima bus, there's no reason for Woodsman not to vote defensively. I am pretty sure he didn't self pres either because he just legit gave up and bounced or because not doing it creates this wifom right here. If you're gonna die anyway you want to leave exactly that kind of fuckery in your wake.

Spoiler

yeah, you're easy, there was only two people you could be, thanks to post structure, and only one of them fits :P

 

[San Franpsycho]

I like most of what you do here but I'm gonna quibble with some things.

Okay, picking up the votes from this moment. We’re about five hours from day end, Lightning Strikes has hopped around a good amount but that’s a trend that continues all day. One thing worth noting is that when Snow Creature voted for Woodsman it was actually tied 2-2, so he broke the tie at that juncture. Woodsman has been in the lead by one vote for over 12 hours at this point. It’s followed then by Spooky Space Kook posting a case on Woodsman, her self admitted only scum read. Lightning follows behind.

Five hours out I don't put much stock in a tiebreak here. Maybe others do. But there were a TON of little wagons at that point and I don't think this means nearly as much as you do. I'd have to look deep into Snow C here beyond just that moment, which I have on the docket this phase if I get to it, but it feels like you're way overweighting this.

This is a bit of a curious moment, because you see Lightning go from voting for Kook to sheeping her vote. It’s possible for this to be a bus (from either, really) and scum just viewed Woodsman as a lost cause at this point given he was in the lead and there didn’t seem to be a particularly clear counter wagon that was building at the time.

This is a lot like the Alien bit but less complicated AND at least it makes sense, what Lightning was doing. I'm not saying scum doesn't game wagons. Just that I don't think this is scum wagoning. I think it's town trying to push action and stances which... works. It does. It's worked consistently all game, it always works, it is ever-fucking-green.

Next up we have Snow Ghost voting for Kook, citing her being the secondary many want and hoping to get some wagonomics. Lighting immediately sheeps. Alien then comes along stating he is fine with the Woodsman vote, but that Sans sticks out more from his post analysis. He isn’t as sure on a Kook vote. This makes the wagons a bit closer – 4v3 in favor of Woodsman. Kook is at 2 as is Creature.

This is that moment when Alien basically declares he doesn't care who dies or if his reads make sense and it's the one I want him to answer. He's not doing that. He has ignored me multiple times.

So this is sort of the pivotal moment, Lightning swings to Sans making it a tie. There is 17 minutes left before day end. Alien starts hollering about how the Woodsman vote is the exact same scenario as Ghost Bear if he flips town, I can only assume meaning he thinks there wouldn’t be useful vote data. It’s unclear why this would be the case given it’s literally tied at this moment.

It's very not in any way the same and it never was, I agree.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

@Wax Phantom

You got anything for us wax?

 

[Alien]

I was going to do a big post about Alien's EoD, pulled all the quotes, got them in, and just absolutely stopped at this one.



I don't think I noticed yesterday quite how downright weird this is. Let's go back though:

Alien was gunning for Pazzo.
Pazzo was gunning for me.
I was gunning for Woodsman.

I almost want to draw a picture. Alien wants to kill Pazzo and when that doesn't work, moves to kill the person Pazzo wants to kill.
Simultaneously, the person he is voting for wants to kill a person, and he is fine also with that target, too.

Alien, who don't you want to kill? How were you reconciling this for yourself?

I was suspicious of yourself and Pazzo because the two of you were mentioned by all 3 scum as town reads. I still think it is somewhat off that every single one of them felt the need to declare you both as townie but I've kinda come round to the fact maybe this was a co-ordinated attempt by scum to make the two of you look bad. I don't know at this point.

Clearly I'm a shitty player and I got lost in my own bullshit. As I've already said I'm done after this game.

 

[Wax Phantom]

@Wax Phantom

You got anything for us wax?

Of all the people you ask

you ask me


WHY

 

[Wax Phantom]

Pazzo might be right about neon phantom

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

Because you’re confirmed town and the worst thing you can do with the position is nothing.

 

[BooBeard]

Fake Edit: Wow, BooBeard did so little he didn’t even really come up at all during that. Looking back BooBeard pokes at Woodsman with some light questioning early in the day phase, but comes back after I make my case on Sans and agrees then strongly suspects her. He votes for her while saying he’s “okay with a Woodsman kill” but that he “would go for San first”. He had some life stuff going on so that is what it is, but after the above post he never again makes a push. He never again talks about Woodsman, he doesn’t really talk about Sans, he just clarifies his reads on players not in contention and prods people to get votes down. This actually strikes me as almost as damning as Alien’s meltdown all told. Instead of word vomiting, he’s doing the opposite and says so little of relevance it strikes me as scummy.

I don't think this is as damning as you are making it out to be. I had life stuff come up and I tried to still post but I didn't have time to dig in. When I was specifically asked questions by other players, such as Snow Creature, I replied to the best of my ability. Today, with more time, I posted a big iso on Woodsman and nobody even responded to it. If I was trying to blend I would just shut up and let Alien take the heat today, instead I am trying to solve.

 

[Snow Ghost]

Didn't Kook say yesterday that she was going to give us some deeper reads? Don't think those have been delivered, have they?

 

[BooBeard]

I'm reading up on Neon right now because of Lightning's push. I'm not really finding anything damning there that leans towards scum, but I can see the case for arsonist that Lightning is making.

 

[BooBeard]

Actually I might have found a few points, give me a second to organize them

 

[BooBeard]

First weird point was brought up by Kook, of all people, for an early game (Day 2) read list with some suspicious points:

I think this post was a good catch and worth looking at. Woodsman did give a few reads on the day that this was posted, but when I look closer at the post that this comes from you had Woodsman and Gnome at the bottom of your reads list. And then you just never interacted with Woodsman after that. How do you feel about him currently?

Neon replied to this right way:

They weren't at the bottom of my reads list, they were at the bottom of my towny reads list.
That probably makes it worse not better but I am fond of clarity.
Boo was a firm "believe new, but very wary about their approach" below them, and Alien was a flat scum read.
At the time SnowC, Ghost Bear, and Waxy were my actual scum leans and obviously those haven't turned out great either. I feel a bit better about SnowC now, Bear was town, and Wax is probably a mason (I say probably because until one of the masons turns up dead I will continue to wonder)
(Independent of the masonry my reads on them now would be a town lean on Hyde and null on Wax, so I'm not particularly interested in looking at him again and not just because reading those posts would be painful, but it would be funny in an awful way if they just made an incredibly bold fake claim and everyone looked the other way about it).

So.
My Gnome/Woodsman read.

Obviously my Gnome read has aged badly.
My Char one has too. Believe me, I know I need to re-evaluate. Working out where to start led to me trying to reread the entire game and that just led to me getting bogged down.

Has my Woodsman read aged badly too?
God knows.

Neon clarified their point, and as they said it actually made themselves look worse through this clarification. This reads list is definitely a bad look in retrospect, but it was an early-game list so it could be meaningless. I think Neon's candid response to this being brought up feels pretty genuine.

Next I'll go over the 3 scum votes and Neon's place on them:
Gnome:

There's no question we're doing this today because we can't just ignore a red check but I do want to get down on record that I'm really not fond of all this "I'll explain everything later"-ing.

I feel like we're being rushed through this by someone who wants it done before it can be evaluated, and I know that's hypocritical when I haven't contributed any evaluation of my own but that is what it is.

Neon agreed with the red check but didn't even put a vote down that day. Gnome had plenty of votes so they could just have been avoiding the turbo.

Char:

Apparently I don't have a vote down either, and skipping back I don't think mine will push it anywhere near Everyone Must Shut Up territory to cut off these last few minutes so I'm just going to put it down.

Vote: Char Gar Gothakon

Neon jumps on the Char wagon right at the end of the day.

Woodsman:

Alien is self destructing and Lightning has Schrodinger's reads.

Fine, I guess I'll take those as something I got from hesitating on this.

Vote: Woodsman

Neon once again jumps on the wagon of someone who flips scum right at the last minute.

I don't think moving votes or jumping on wagons at the last second is necessarily a bad thing, but repeated examples of that behaviour where the target then flips scum seems of note to me.

If they're scum, bussing at the last second could be a play for cred. If they're arsonist, jumping on an easy wagon without drawing attention to themselves and living another day is the move.

I pretty much read all of Neon's posts and these examples are really the worst I could find. They've played a pretty clean game otherwise. I feel worse about them now, but they wouldn't be my top choice. I'm still feeling Kook.

BTW what does PoE mean? Is it Process of Elimination? How does that make grammatical sense when you say that people are in your Process of Elimination?

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

Pool, not process. But it can be either.

 

[BooBeard]

Pool, not process. But it can be either.

Thank you, that makes more sense.

 

[San Franpsycho]

BTW what does PoE mean? Is it Process of Elimination? How does that make grammatical sense when you say that people are in your Process of Elimination?

Pool, not process. But it can be either.

No, it's process, but it results in a pool. What's unstated is that it's the POOL of candidates you reach through PROCESS OF ELIMINATION

don't look at me, I didn't invent it

 

[San Franpsycho]

I like the work, Boo, but I don't know if it's meaningful in any real way. I do think Neon has some sticky points of unnecessary hesitation throughout. I'll say this, though:

If they're scum, bussing at the last second could be a play for cred.

Around here, this does not usually result in cred. Last minute votes get huge scrutiny until they can be solved.

 

[Alien]

Okay sure I'll type something up. I'll typer something more in depth for day 3 start but for now I'll just split into 3 broad groups.

People I feel broadly good about

San
Pazzo
Snack
Cat
Lighting
Kook
Yourself
Tech

People I'm largely undecided on

Gnome
BooBeard
Wax and Hyde (based solely on the Masons claim)

People I feel broadly bad about

CCG
both Snows
Stan
Yaga
Bear
Woodsman
Skunk

Hey I'm batting for 100 so far. Neat.

 

[BooBeard]

I like the work, Boo, but I don't know if it's meaningful in any real way. I do think Neon has some sticky points of unnecessary hesitation throughout. I'll say this, though:

Around here, this does not usually result in cred. Last minute votes get huge scrutiny until they can be solved.

See this makes sense to me intrinsically. I feel like voting at the last minute is bad and anti-town and I've tried to avoid it, but people have been doing it all game and haven't gotten a ton of attention for it so I wasn't sure. Thanks for the clarity on that point.

Like I alluded to in my post, I don't think the work on Neon is a smoking gun by any means, maybe it was meaningless, but I am trying to dig into my nulls now that I have more time and see if I can form stronger opinions on them.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

I feel like voting at the last minute is bad and anti-town

Voting Last minute is Sick, Big fan personally.

It all depends on why your moving your vote as long as you are playing with good attentions its fine to move your vote whenever you feel is best.

as scum it's harder to move your vote and not look Sus because the motives behind the switch are probably Sus

I am often suspect of people who Won't move there Vote because it is likely they are more worried about there image and how they will be viewed than winning the game.

 

[San Franpsycho]

I don't think voting at the last minute is bad intrinsically. There are times when it's really helpful to see chaos because scum has a harder time in chaos. We haven't had a lot of that here - the only time we've really had meaningful movement was probably d1 and then yesterday; the rest is mostly just people SITTING and not voting until late, or staying on an unviable wagon and then moving and the problem is... town does all that stuff, too. A lot. It gets hard to sort real pressure from vanity wagons that do nothing from real meaningful votes, and who that isn't voting is not voting to avoid... man, I'm soapboxing now. i have many feelings/many are my feelings

Neon is really interesting, though and have the urge to townread there for effort and visible progress. There is something to be said of the hesitation, though, especially

Spoiler: meta

since if my meta read on Neon is correct then that could mean doom :P but i'm not sure of the read so i'm erasing that

and Neon comes up in my list of possible candidates from the d1 votes. I probably just need to iso there. sigh.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

@BooBeard

Context is important you should not switch votes randomly just to switch that's anti-town.

If you think leaving your vote is a good decision for the moment leave it If you feel Moving your vote is the right move Move it and don't worry about Timing looking bad.

as long as your number 1 goal is finding scum make the moves you feel best reaches that goal.


Unless you role scum then worry about your Image 24/7 LOL

 

[Alien]

Unvote

 

[San Franpsycho]

Hmm. I was looking to see if Neon was consistently late and hesitating with votes, and yes, mostly - but not on D2. Well, it was ~2 hours from EoD. I'll read Neon that day first, then.

 

[BooBeard]

Thanks for the elaboration y'all, I appreciate it.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

@San Franpsycho
as a wise man that became the dumbest man on the planet because the writers revealed they were frauds and complete hacks once said

"Chaos is a Ladder"

 

[Lightning Strikes]

. It gets hard to sort real pressure from vanity wagons that do nothing from real meaningful votes, and who that isn't voting is not voting to avoid... man, I'm soapboxing now. i have many feelings/many are my feelings

since we are soapboxing about Player behavior can I just say I really Despise Joke Votes on Day 1

I hate day 1 as a whole but man do Joke Votes tilt me of the freaking Planet

one of the many reasons I avoid the pure unfun fiesta That is the first hours of day 1.

deciding to not post for the First 12-18 hours is the best mafia decision I have ever made.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

Reading some early thread stuff to see if anything stood out and I just want to say so far based on how this game has been going this quote by me day 1 is accurate this game.

Maifia make bad plays and bad Post all the time let's stop over estimating them

 

[San Franpsycho]

I feel oddly demotivated. I shouldn't. We're in a good spot. But it feels like we are gonna have to just go ahead and flip Alien today. Feels like if we don't we'll just have the same conversation again, and it kinda sucks the wind from my sails. I just don't see how we can go forward without resolving that question mark.

 

[Pazzo the Ghost Clown]

I'm gonna go ahead and point out that the last time we were at end game together, I had been saying this for days, and was in fact town, and you realized it was in fact true and that I was also in fact purposely kept alive until endgame to serve that very purpose, so....

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If I was scum and it was an ultima bus, there's no reason for Woodsman not to vote defensively. I am pretty sure he didn't self pres either because he just legit gave up and bounced or because not doing it creates this wifom right here. If you're gonna die anyway you want to leave exactly that kind of fuckery in your wake.

Spoiler

yeah, you're easy, there was only two people you could be, thanks to post structure, and only one of them fits :P

Hey I said it was a spicy, paranoia take. If I thought it was the MOST LIKELY scenario I'd be pushing it harder, but it's not. It's just a scenario I could see as plausible.

Spoiler

I didn't try and disguise myself, but I'm just not going to name myself for anyone that is enjoying speculating to themselves.

I like most of what you do here but I'm gonna quibble with some things.

Five hours out I don't put much stock in a tiebreak here. Maybe others do. But there were a TON of little wagons at that point and I don't think this means nearly as much as you do. I'd have to look deep into Snow C here beyond just that moment, which I have on the docket this phase if I get to it, but it feels like you're way overweighting this.

You really only quibbled with one :P But I share my full breadth of thought on Snow C further down, it's not JUST that he broke the tie there - it's that he didn't move his vote given the chance later on when it was near day end and close. He was around at the time, he could have. He had expressed concern over you at times as well, but he stood pat.

I don't think this is as damning as you are making it out to be. I had life stuff come up and I tried to still post but I didn't have time to dig in. When I was specifically asked questions by other players, such as Snow Creature, I replied to the best of my ability. Today, with more time, I posted a big iso on Woodsman and nobody even responded to it. If I was trying to blend I would just shut up and let Alien take the heat today, instead I am trying to solve.

But when you did have time to commit you spent it talking about those not in contention instead of the leading wagons. Why?

First weird point was brought up by Kook, of all people, for an early game (Day 2) read list with some suspicious points:

Neon replied to this right way:

Neon clarified their point, and as they said it actually made themselves look worse through this clarification. This reads list is definitely a bad look in retrospect, but it was an early-game list so it could be meaningless. I think Neon's candid response to this being brought up feels pretty genuine.

Next I'll go over the 3 scum votes and Neon's place on them:
Gnome:

Neon agreed with the red check but didn't even put a vote down that day. Gnome had plenty of votes so they could just have been avoiding the turbo.

Char:

Neon jumps on the Char wagon right at the end of the day.

Woodsman:

Neon once again jumps on the wagon of someone who flips scum right at the last minute.

I don't think moving votes or jumping on wagons at the last second is necessarily a bad thing, but repeated examples of that behaviour where the target then flips scum seems of note to me.

If they're scum, bussing at the last second could be a play for cred. If they're arsonist, jumping on an easy wagon without drawing attention to themselves and living another day is the move.

I pretty much read all of Neon's posts and these examples are really the worst I could find. They've played a pretty clean game otherwise. I feel worse about them now, but they wouldn't be my top choice. I'm still feeling Kook.

BTW what does PoE mean? Is it Process of Elimination? How does that make grammatical sense when you say that people are in your Process of Elimination?

What makes you feel Kook more! Just so I understand your thought process.

See this makes sense to me intrinsically. I feel like voting at the last minute is bad and anti-town and I've tried to avoid it, but people have been doing it all game and haven't gotten a ton of attention for it so I wasn't sure. Thanks for the clarity on that point.

Like I alluded to in my post, I don't think the work on Neon is a smoking gun by any means, maybe it was meaningless, but I am trying to dig into my nulls now that I have more time and see if I can form stronger opinions on them.

What people?

 

[Snow Ghost]

Alien can't be let to the endgame, unless we all come to the agreement that he is a certain townie. I can't see that happening nor do I think it should happen. Might the best that we cut him loose today. Should he flip town, we can look into those who overrelied on Alien today and on the days before.

When it comes to his play, I don't think it has been nearly good enough to let him live. The work has been weak and oft stopped few steps away from making conclusions and pushing them. I symphatize with the continued remarks about the game being a pain in the ass, but they mean nothing when repeated this much.

I guess what bothers me though is that Alien has had so little direction and so little desire to stay alive that it feels strange. I could be wrong though, I think Sans pointed out today that the Arsonist doomsaying could absolutely be seen as busywork. I would've expected a more active approach from scum but hell, with these flips that assumption is nothing but false.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

Yeah as much as we may put on a show of considering other targets we "have no choice" but to kill alien today.

Especially when multiple posters are forming theory's about other posters around alien flipping scum he has to be the next kill.

 

[Snow Creature]

I feel oddly demotivated. I shouldn't. We're in a good spot. But it feels like we are gonna have to just go ahead and flip Alien today. Feels like if we don't we'll just have the same conversation again, and it kinda sucks the wind from my sails. I just don't see how we can go forward without resolving that question mark.

I feel this. We've had three good days of solid direction towards scum, but today we've not quite got as good a lead. For me, it doesn't help I wasn't around much yesterday, but I'm gonna have a look at Kook, Neon, and Alien today.

Something about Alien tells me they're town in my gut, but I get the flip. If they're scum, good job you figured them out, and if they're town, Alien hasn't given us enough to believe that. It's a tough spot when you're town and can't convince people.

 

[Snow Creature]

So I've reread Kook. Spoilers for the end of my post, but I'll be laying my vote down here for now. Everyone's put together some great arguments against them. I don't want to post too much since other people have covered it in more detail, but here's my reasoning.

Initially, I was of the mind that their D2 vote on Char was anything but scum. I thought it put the Char vote under too much pressure and risked getting them voted out. Then their last minute switch to Ghost Bear was bizarre since why would scum do that? Lose any town cred with an incredibly suspect vote.

But then Sans pointed out their D3 post which puts Char in the top half of their read list, and Kook's reasoning was to see how people reacted to the Char vote. As far as I remember, they never did anything with this information. On the topic of Char, they show skepticism towards their claim on D4, but never actually put a vote down there. We saw how that went with Woodsman.

Then you have two scum giving them a town read based on very little at the time (Gnome and Woodsman). And then you've got Gnome's list which has Kook on it, so that's worth crossing a name off the list.

But really, I mostly like Sans and Snow Ghost's reasonings for them being an arsonist. First Sans noting that Kook might be keeping some info to themselves in their analysis and Snow Ghost breaking down a pretty accurate arsonist read I feel. So if they're not the arsonist, I still feel there's a non-zero chance they're scum.

While I go back and reread Neon, I'm doing this vote: Kook

 

[Spooky Space Kook]

So I've reread Kook. Spoilers for the end of my post, but I'll be laying my vote down here for now. Everyone's put together some great arguments against them. I don't want to post too much since other people have covered it in more detail, but here's my reasoning.

Initially, I was of the mind that their D2 vote on Char was anything but scum. I thought it put the Char vote under too much pressure and risked getting them voted out. Then their last minute switch to Ghost Bear was bizarre since why would scum do that? Lose any town cred with an incredibly suspect vote.

But then Sans pointed out their D3 post which puts Char in the top half of their read list, and Kook's reasoning was to see how people reacted to the Char vote. As far as I remember, they never did anything with this information. On the topic of Char, they show skepticism towards their claim on D4, but never actually put a vote down there. We saw how that went with Woodsman.

Then you have two scum giving them a town read based on very little at the time (Gnome and Woodsman). And then you've got Gnome's list which has Kook on it, so that's worth crossing a name off the list.

But really, I mostly like Sans and Snow Ghost's reasonings for them being an arsonist. First Sans noting that Kook might be keeping some info to themselves in their analysis and Snow Ghost breaking down a pretty accurate arsonist read I feel. So if they're not the arsonist, I still feel there's a non-zero chance they're scum.

While I go back and reread Neon, I'm doing this vote: Kook

I feel like people suspecting me of both scum and arsonist is somewhat hard to argue against simply because it feels almost as if you're contorting yourselves to convince yourselves you're right here. I don't see how scum and arsonist would be trying to play the same kind of game

While it's true that Gnome and Woodsman were both town reading me there, both of those reads are from early Day 1. And Woodsman seemed to be bussing every scum that he could. The only other reads list I can find is this one from him :

That's a dangerous assumption to make. D1 reads are cheap.

I feel pretty good about Pizza and San Fran at the moment.
Still leaning Town on Kook as well. Although she hasn't had as strong presence today so far I liked her posts.

On another note ,the interaction between Snow Creature and Pizza felt a bit off to me. Maybe they really do think alike, but it felt strange to me how SC tried to highlight how they agreed with the Clown. I could see this being a pocket attempt.

Char hasn't had a huge impact today and I'd be open for a vote there. His push on Wax also seemed kind of strange. I guess it's a continuation of his vote from D1, but he doesn't really advocate it and it feels like he just wants to park his vote somewhere.

He's stating that San Fran, Pazzo, and I are town and then shades Char Gar. Out of the flipped scum so far, he hasn't stated that any of them are town, so what makes this situation different?

 

[Lightning Strikes]

But really, I mostly like Sans and Snow Ghost's reasonings for them being an arsonist. First Sans noting that Kook might be keeping some info to themselves in their analysis and Snow Ghost breaking down a pretty accurate arsonist read I feel. So if they're not the arsonist, I still feel there's a non-zero chance they're scum.

Thos still makes Zero sense just like it made Zero sense yesterday.

Kooky does not need to keep info to themselves as arsonist that's just dumb.


She easily could be Mafia with this reasoning but not arsonist.

 

[Snow Creature]

Thos still makes Zero sense just like it made Zero sense yesterday.

Kooky does not need to keep info to themselves as arsonist that's just dumb.


She easily could be Mafia with this reasoning but not arsonist.

No I see their point.

But it does require you to make assumptions about how the arsonist is playing the game and whether or not them hitting all town so far is a coincidence or partly deliberate.

Say Kook is the arsonist. And say they have to take out everybody to win. Town outnumber scum, so the arsonist would be more inclined to hit town and leave it to us to figure out the scum ourselves. This way, arsonist can whittle down town while town does the same to scum.

This is where them keeping info to themselves comes in. If the arsonist has figured out who the scum is, they would keep that info to themselves as to not speed up the game too much. They can keep some of their cards close to their chest and wait until town needs that push. I also think that's where the point about Kook seemingly changing their mind on Char on D3 comes into it. If town doesn't have scum to hunt, they have no choice but to hunt arsonist.

It may also be why Kook is less interested in hunting the arsonist today, despite saying that it was a legitimate thing to do a couple of days ago:

The arsonist might be putting an accelerated clock, but there's always a chance they'll hit scum. I don't think the situation's quite as urgent as it's made out to be

TL;DR if you're the arsonist, you can't play a truly town game, nor a truly scum game. I think Snow G and Sans believe they're playing the middle and I can see it too.

 

[Snow Ghost]

VOTE: Spooky Space Kook

 

[Snow Ghost]

The Arsonist pool is still too large at this point. I think at least on some level hunting the Arsonist is a waste of time. Not that the overall discussion being strangled by it, no, but that it is a cheap way for all anti-town to look busy.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

Say Kook is the arsonist. And say they have to take out everybody to win. Town outnumber scum, so the arsonist would be more inclined to hit town and leave it to us to figure out the scum ourselves. This way, arsonist can whittle down town while town does the same to scum.

This is not true because Mafia still wins with majority if they outnumber other parties.

Arsonist cant speed the game through only hitting town and not Lynching scum because they will just lose themselves.


Arsonist is gonna play very close to town.


Also Doubt arsonist has to kill everyone I believe there win condition is likely kill 3 people.

 

[Spooky Space Kook]

This is not true because Mafia still wins with majority if they outnumber other parties.

Arsonist cant speed the game through only hitting town and not Lynching scum because they will just lose themselves.


Arsonist is gonna play very close to town.


Also Doubt arsonist has to kill everyone I believe there win condition is likely kill 3 people.

If the arsonist only needs 3, why didn't they win previously? Weren't they all doused?

 

[Lightning Strikes]

If the arsonist only needs 3, why didn't they win previously? Weren't they all doused?

I buy the theory mafia Night Kill overlaps with one of arsonist Kills.

Mafia kills 2 mafia kills 1.

Arsonist re doused last night.

Tonight Arsonist kills Snow Creature and leaves the game which is fine by me.

 

[Snow Creature]

Also on that point, what's the point in blowing up two at once then doing the other one later?

To be fair, I shouldn't have brought it up because it's pointless speculation about something we don't know.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

I buy the theory mafia Night Kill overlaps with one of arsonist Kills.

Mafia kills 2 mafia kills 1.

Arsonist re doused last night.

Tonight Arsonist kills Snow Creature and leaves the game which is fine by me.

*Arsonist kills 2 Mafia kills 1

 

[Lightning Strikes]

Also on that point, what's the point in blowing up two at once then doing the other one later?

To be fair, I shouldn't have brought it up because it's pointless speculation about something we don't know.

Like I said mafia steal kills 1 from arsonist.

Mafia lit up 3 but only earned 2 kills forcing them to douse 1 then lit 1 tonight.

I think are arsonist problem may solve itself by tomorrow

 

[Snow Creature]

Like I said mafia steal kills 1 from arsonist.

Mafia lit up 3 but only earned 2 kills forcing them to douse 1 then lit 1 tonight.

I think are arsonist problem may solve itself by tomorrow

Okay, got you now.

Don't be offended if I disagree because I kind of have a vested interest in not being blown up lol

 

[Lightning Strikes]

Okay, got you now.

Don't be offended if I disagree because I kind of have a vested interest in not being blown up lol

I'm sorry your in this position theres no real way to save you with firefighter gone.

If Arsonist had to kill everyone town and scum there is Zero reason to lit up at 3 doused

They would keep dousing people on night
4.

If kill everyone is the win condition they dont have to worry about doused targets getting killed in other ways so they just keep dousing every night.


The arsonist win condition is 3 kills they tried to get it night 4 hot 2 out of 3 due to scum now they win the game tonight.

 

[Snow Creature]

I'm sorry your in this position theres no real way to save you with firefighter gone.

If Arsonist had to kill everyone town and scum there is Zero reason to lit up at 3 doused

They would keep dousing people on night
4.

If kill everyone is the win condition they dont have to worry about doused targets getting killed in other ways so they just keep dousing every night.


The arsonist win condition is 3 kills they tried to get it night 4 hot 2 out of 3 due to scum now they win the game tonight.

Yeah, I see your point. Kook is still the one I feel strongest about and am tempted to leave my vote there.

Just reading through Neon and nothing's standing out as scummy up to D3. Might go in the town pile for now.

 

[BooBeard]

But when you did have time to commit you spent it talking about those not in contention instead of the leading wagons. Why?

This isn't true. Yesterday I talked plenty about San and until day end they were a leading wagon. Today I talked about Kook who is now a leading wagon, and Neon who had a vote on them when there weren't a ton of votes on the board and were arousing suspicion. I'm trying to glean more information from the Day phase instead of just settling on a wagon and tunneling them all day.

What makes you feel Kook more! Just so I understand your thought process.

I've posted my thoughts on Kook multiple times. Woodsman explicitly town read them twice. They've been floating around the periphery of the game the whole time and made some convenient reads and votes. I collected my thoughts here yesterday on why I started scum reading them:

Okay so I had Kook as a null read for most of the game until last day phase. I found their votes a little convenient, but nothing that would ring alarm bells for me. They seemed to be coasting a bit (not that I can really jab anyone for that after my last two day phases). However, I found some points being made yesterday by a bunch of other players to be convincing:


Cat explained why they thought this earlier:

At the time I felt this was a pretty solid connection. That read list really doesn't look great, but it was a list from early on in the game. Cat flipped town as well lending further credence to this.


You yourself noted this list of players Gnome mentioned as town, and Kook is included here but not Char, which increases the odds of one of these players being scum and thus increases the odds of Kook being scum.


Baba agreed with this as well, they've flipped town and their investigations were pretty good before being offed.


I already mentioned how I found myself nodding along to this San post.


I found this reply to San's post more of a deflection than anything on first read. Going back now I'm not so sure, but once again I'm feeling paranoid.

That's why I was scum leaning them at day start. I think they're back to neutral for now because I am still re-evaluating my thoughts. I haven't been able to do the re-read I wanted with everything going on in my life. If Woodsman flips scum I will feel slightly better about San, I don't think they're both scum and San is bussing, it feels too much for that for me, but going by what others have said about scum nightkilling teammates in past games I have no idea anymore. So I'm super paranoid, my brain is probably not in the right headspace to evaluate that. I'm gonna stay with my current vote for now but it seems like Woodsman will be the vote today anyway.

With the Woodsman flip and the re-read I've done I'm not feeling wishy-washy on any of these points anymore, I feel them strongly now.

What people?

I was gonna go through the various Day phases starting at Day 2 because Day 1 didn't really count but I realized that any day June 19th or before no longer shows time of posting on posts? So that kinda sucks.

Just at a glance Cat Creature changes votes to Snow Creature end of Day 2, they received no blowback later for this and they even flipped town so it was clearly NaI. There was also a flurry of votes transitioning from Char to Ghost Bear but I more understand the value of that at the time, how they were pressuring Char while being sure of the Ghost Bear vote, and then with the later knowledge of flips you can see how for example Gnome jumped on the Ghost Bear wagon to save Char.

Day 3 was a turbo so I will discard it, though Snow Creature did hit the hammer. They asked if anybody had objections to the hammer first though so I think that's fine.

Day 4 I can see posting times again, Snow Creature votes within the last hour, Snow Ghost and Neon Phantom vote within the last 12 minutes. (Also Lightning votes after the day is over lol). I didn't see anyone say anything about this.

Day 5 there was a lot of movement but there's been some analysis of this, including by you.

I'm not trying to call anyone out for these points if they are not actually a problem! I don't think I have enough experience to fully analyze votes like this. I am trying to learn how to play properly and understand etiquette and potential moves I can make. If somebody with more experience can take some meaning from these points great, if they are meaningless I wouldn't be surprised. It's not supposed to be a big gotcha on my end.

 

[Snow Creature]

So where's your vote going today @BooBeard?

And @Neon Phantom @Spooky Space Kook @Alien for that matter.

I'll be leaving soon and won't be a big presence for the rest of the day. I'll check my phone and add my thoughts if I need to but please don't burn the place down while I'm gone.

 

[BooBeard]

I voted for Kook already. I'm standing pat.

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

Arsonist is often 3-at-once, not 3 in the course of a game. So they might not have a chance at a win tonight. But if they do, whatever. Simplifies the field. snowC has looked slightly less mafia to me but seeing the flip would still be beneficial. Unless they’re the arsonist and lying about being doused, but eh, that’s not as likely.

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

I don’t have more to say, doing a turbo would be fine for me if the game pretty much agrees.

 

[San Franpsycho]

I feel like people suspecting me of both scum and arsonist is somewhat hard to argue against simply because it feels almost as if you're contorting yourselves to convince yourselves you're right here. I don't see how scum and arsonist would be trying to play the same kind of game

Don’t be vague. Who’s twisting? Why is this so wrong? What are you doing today to shake this case? Who’s scum? Who’s the arsonist?

'm sorry your in this position theres no real way to save you with firefighter gone.

Sure there is. If arsonist dies today, SC lives.

 

[Neon Phantom]

I got hit with the real life stick today. Give me some time to collect myself.

I had that moment of clarity I was hoping for.
Alas, it was where not to vote instead of who to vote for like I hoped.

I'm not going to vote for Alien.

In early game I absolutely scum read him.
Very few game related posts echoed his last scum game, the Boo stuff I still think was NAI so him flipping town or scum does nothing for Boos alignment and flipping him will do nothing for Boos.

Trying to engage with him on those early lists was pain and I was dead set on him being scum that night after I tried to engage with him if only because I thought he was doing it on purpose, and moreso when he started holding the boo stuff up the next day.

But as the days have gone on he's really just seems demotivated to me.
I think a team would have helped him out at some point. Even a team caught up in bussing themselves half to death.
Workshopped some reads, given him a prod to post more often, keep on top of things, maybe not let him get completely swept away in math.
His play doesn't show the signs of someone with backup, he's been flailing on his own.

I think he coasted a little off people giving him town leeway for that d1 defense and when the time came to dig in more he couldn't find a way to and attempts to push foward with analysis have fallen into summarization.
But I don't think we're hitting at scum here, I think we're just hitting at someone lost.

He's not helping himself, and I have a horrible feeling that trying to keep him alive isn't helping him either, but I don't like the vote and I'm not going near it.

I feel oddly demotivated. I shouldn't. We're in a good spot. But it feels like we are gonna have to just go ahead and flip Alien today. Feels like if we don't we'll just have the same conversation again, and it kinda sucks the wind from my sails. I just don't see how we can go forward without resolving that question mark.

Why yes, I did just dump a random quote in the middle of my "I don't think we should vote for Alien" post.
I wonder how that happened.

I spent a moment debating how to make an appeal to someone whose read of me is probably on a razor edge because because they've spent days saying they think they shouldn't trust me because of who they suspect I am

I realised it doesn't matter.
The appeal has to be the same either way.

Can I suggest that you feel demotivated because you know Alien is the wrong vote?

Our job isn't to hunt suboptimal town, it's to hunt scum.
Alien isn't scum. Look at him. He's too alone.
And he's not the arsonist. He just isn't.

I can see why he's a blob of uncertaintly and looking away from him looks wrong.

But even if he flipped scum (and seriously, I am 90+% sure he wouldn't, and that is way more convinced than I am about anyone else at this point) where would that take us?
Because I feel like pretty much the only place scum!Alien could even lead us at this point is Boo, and in that case I'd rather skip straight to Boo on Boos own merits.

Yes I realise it would have been slightly better if I'd had enough sense to have this brainwave at the start of the phase and put it forward then, but, well. Whoops.

 

[Neon Phantom]

I am anti-turbo.
I am right this second going to look at Boo and Kooks like I was meant to be before.

 

[Captain Skunkbeard]

Fine, neon, i won’t switch to kook then since you’re being busy.

i hear you about alien, it’s just that it feels like it needs to be done.

 

[San Franpsycho]

Can I suggest that you feel demotivated because you know Alien is the wrong vote?

Our job isn't to hunt suboptimal town, it's to hunt scum.
Alien isn't scum. Look at him. He's too alone.
And he's not the arsonist. He just isn't.

I can see why he's a blob of uncertaintly and looking away from him looks wrong.

This sounds good and yet is incorrect when the person in question could also easily just be scum.

Wax is suboptimal town but we don’t kill him, at least not unless we know we are about to go to f3. We aren’t there. But we don’t have the same assurance with Alien. Alien COULD be suboptimal town. But he could also be scum just putting on a show. I don’t know where you get your certainty, but I don’t think you brought enough for the rest of the class.

What’s worse is that if we don’t kill him, tomorrow we do this again. And the next day, until the game ends, unless we catch all the scum first and fund out that way. But we have one power here and it’s just the power of the flip.

I’m not here to handhold people. I’m sorry mafia sucks. It sucks all the time and we are all masochists. But I’m not letting someone slide as a charity because THAT IS HOW WE LOSE. Alien has kept himself firmly in a scum position all game. if he wants to not be there, he should be helping us find scum. Is he?

I have a really hard time thinking that you are reading the game with an eye toward solving if you have read today and come out of it with the notion that Boo is a better flip than Alien. Or that Alien only leads to Boo. How many scum are left? Maybe Alien is the last. He has the best connection to the scum we have flipped besides Kook.

Why are you so convinced? Remove the demotivating and emotion in Alien’s posts- why?

So no, in short, you are wrong about the source of my demotivation. I am demotivated when I feel like I must get rid of a question mark who insists they are town and yet lifts nary a finger to do anything but act scum.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

I don’t have more to say, doing a turbo would be fine for me if the game pretty much agrees.

There is no point to turbo. You should only turbo if it will save us time but at this point the next day phase will start at the exact same time weather we turbo or not.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

Can I suggest that you feel demotivated because you know Alien is the wrong vote?

I am demoted as well. I was demotivated day 3 and 4

Its very natural to feel demotivated when the vote is very certain.

 

[Pazzo the Ghost Clown]

I may not be around much today sorry folks.

I feel like people suspecting me of both scum and arsonist is somewhat hard to argue against simply because it feels almost as if you're contorting yourselves to convince yourselves you're right here. I don't see how scum and arsonist would be trying to play the same kind of game

While it's true that Gnome and Woodsman were both town reading me there, both of those reads are from early Day 1. And Woodsman seemed to be bussing every scum that he could. The only other reads list I can find is this one from him :



He's stating that San Fran, Pazzo, and I are town and then shades Char Gar. Out of the flipped scum so far, he hasn't stated that any of them are town, so what makes this situation different?

You said it yourself - he didn’t share reads often. I’m not sure you can assume if he read all his scummates or how he would read them. The point of contention is more often your reads.

The Arsonist pool is still too large at this point. I think at least on some level hunting the Arsonist is a waste of time. Not that the overall discussion being strangled by it, no, but that it is a cheap way for all anti-town to look busy.

The main reason to not hunt the arsonist today is that WORST CASE they are just taking out one player tonight. Tomorrow is the day to hunt the arsonist if they don’t ignite tonight.

I got hit with the real life stick today. Give me some time to collect myself.

I had that moment of clarity I was hoping for.
Alas, it was where not to vote instead of who to vote for like I hoped.

I'm not going to vote for Alien.

In early game I absolutely scum read him.
Very few game related posts echoed his last scum game, the Boo stuff I still think was NAI so him flipping town or scum does nothing for Boos alignment and flipping him will do nothing for Boos.

Trying to engage with him on those early lists was pain and I was dead set on him being scum that night after I tried to engage with him if only because I thought he was doing it on purpose, and moreso when he started holding the boo stuff up the next day.

But as the days have gone on he's really just seems demotivated to me.
I think a team would have helped him out at some point. Even a team caught up in bussing themselves half to death.
Workshopped some reads, given him a prod to post more often, keep on top of things, maybe not let him get completely swept away in math.
His play doesn't show the signs of someone with backup, he's been flailing on his own.

I think he coasted a little off people giving him town leeway for that d1 defense and when the time came to dig in more he couldn't find a way to and attempts to push foward with analysis have fallen into summarization.
But I don't think we're hitting at scum here, I think we're just hitting at someone lost.

He's not helping himself, and I have a horrible feeling that trying to keep him alive isn't helping him either, but I don't like the vote and I'm not going near it.



Why yes, I did just dump a random quote in the middle of my "I don't think we should vote for Alien" post.
I wonder how that happened.

I spent a moment debating how to make an appeal to someone whose read of me is probably on a razor edge because because they've spent days saying they think they shouldn't trust me because of who they suspect I am

I realised it doesn't matter.
The appeal has to be the same either way.

Can I suggest that you feel demotivated because you know Alien is the wrong vote?

Our job isn't to hunt suboptimal town, it's to hunt scum.
Alien isn't scum. Look at him. He's too alone.
And he's not the arsonist. He just isn't.

I can see why he's a blob of uncertaintly and looking away from him looks wrong.

But even if he flipped scum (and seriously, I am 90+% sure he wouldn't, and that is way more convinced than I am about anyone else at this point) where would that take us?
Because I feel like pretty much the only place scum!Alien could even lead us at this point is Boo, and in that case I'd rather skip straight to Boo on Boos own merits.

Yes I realise it would have been slightly better if I'd had enough sense to have this brainwave at the start of the phase and put it forward then, but, well. Whoops.

Why do you think Alien only leads to Boo? Who does Boo lead to that appeals to you more? Do you not think any of today’s voting and arguments would be worthwhile post-flip?

 

[Lightning Strikes]

@Neon Phantom

We simply have to kill Alien imo.

I believe they are truthfully disinterested and not having fun however not having fun doesn't mean your not scum.

Vote:Alien

 

[Lightning Strikes]

Worst case if we miss on alien is we took out a Vanilla town who has actively stopped playing the game and given up.

 

[Lightning Strikes]

Also we hot three scum in a row it's not going to be catastrophic to kill a town were due for a miss at some point.

Alien is a phase of this game we need to move on from.

 

[Alien]

@Neon Phantom

We simply have to kill Alien imo.

I believe they are truthfully disinterested and not having fun however not having fun doesn't mean your not scum.

Vote:Alien

You were already voting me.

 

[San Franpsycho]

I haven't had a chance to go back and look at past douse targets, but here's everyone who's posted about Snow C in some capacity today. I think from this it's pretty clear Pazzo is not the arsonist - would not spend that much time talking with a target like that. I can't clear anyone else, though. It's pretty inconclusive.

Mentions of SC today:

me: in the PoE with Alien and Kook, but maybe a little less

Skunkbeard: Not into Snow Creature after day end
but seems to put alien and boo slightly ahead
later says wouldn’t mind seeing Snow C’s flip

Lightning is fine with Snow C dying

Boo: Snow C looks slightly better

Snow G: Wants to reread for a stronger read on Snow C

Alien puts Snow C into a long list with other people of possibles

Kook I think is pointing to a town Snow C but it’s hard to be sure

Neon feels better about Snow C because of yesterday, I think; does not put them in the list of people to look at today

Pazzo talked a lot with Snow C and did not treat them like a problem so I’ll assume a more positive read - also gave some credit to a an early tiebreak vote and general position


-----

I don't think Wax has mentioned Snow C, but doesn't matter; Wax is a mason. Kook, Lightning, Alien, and Neon are the ones who seem to do the least with Snow C. Skunkbeard is back and forth here a little too. I don't think Boo is the arsonist but I'd have said that before, too.

More thoughts on this in a follow-up post.

 

[San Franpsycho]

Some things I noted while reading for Snow C mentions:

I was hoping you'd have talked yourself out the just-kill-me-s during the night phase.

I was actually inclined to townread your blow up last night because I've seen you pull that before as town and I don't think it's something it would be your first instinct to fake, but damn you are not making it easy when a third scum death in a row would be a valid reason for frustrated scum to blow up too.

A vote does not a case make.

Neon, how'd you go from there to here?

 

[San Franpsycho]

Is it totally inconceivable that after losing CGG and Gnome scum decided their best chance was to consecutively bus? First Woodsman and then Kook. If Sans is the Arsonist it would mean they only need one misvote to have three more town lined up to die. This is obviously reliant on the Arsonist not being Neutral but at this point I feel that's kinda unlikely because the WinCon just seems overly harsh.

(This isn't neccessarily reliant on Kook being one of the final scum but it certainly helps to set things up.)

So hypothetically I'm voted out plus the NK brings us down to 9. Then presumably Kook goes as well as a further NK. At this point there's 7 players left with 3 doused. All the remaining scum player would need to do is a avoid death and they'd make their way into a final 3.

Further to this I believe the two town players that will live to endgame will be Lightning and Boo. I've thought about it and those two both have the most obvious cases against them at this point in time (assuming myself and Kook are dead by this point). I've no doubt a veteran player would feel confident enough to be successful in a vote out scenario involving these two. In all seriousness if it does come down to you too genuinely think about why you're both still alive.

Alien, why are you treating Kook like a certain town flip? That's how I read this, anyway.